Around Baseball 2022

[John_Havok]

Really hoping McGriff gets in. Schilling, meh.

 

I hope they all get in except Murphy.

[wilko]

Its near his family, nice weather, much nicer city than NY

 

[Ehjays]

[JaysAllMighty]

Interesting...

 

[jaysblue]

 

He would have been a nice pickup as a No. 5 starter.

[Orgfiller]

He would have been a nice pickup as a No. 5 starter.

 

Would he have? He's been bad/injured since 2020 and is 31 now. Feels like he'd be Kikuchi with a lower ceiling and a higher floor (much higher risk for injury though). 1/10 isn't exactly a bargain price for Matt Boyd.

[Brownie19]

Would he have? He's been bad/injured since 2020 and is 31 now. Feels like he'd be Kikuchi with a lower ceiling and a higher floor (much higher risk for injury though). 1/10 isn't exactly a bargain price for Matt Boyd.

 

1.35 ERA last year bruh.

[wilko]

Would he have? He's been bad/injured since 2020 and is 31 now. Feels like he'd be Kikuchi with a lower ceiling and a higher floor (much higher risk for injury though). 1/10 isn't exactly a bargain price for Matt Boyd.

 

He also doesn't mind giving up the long ball.

[Brownie19]

RIP to Gaylord Perry. My middle son's name is Perry and I loosely say he's named after Gaylord (as my other sons are named after Greg Maddux and Josh Beckett). I must admit - I never realized how good Gaylord was. 100.1 WAR for his career.

[Ehjays]

[Ehjays]

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/35139041/mlb-offseason-free-agency-survey-baseball-insiders-predictions-signings-trades

 

MLB execs weigh in

 

Nearly a month into the MLB offseason, we're still awaiting the first big splash.

 

While we wait for the movement to pick up entering next week's winter meetings in San Diego, we asked a panel of experts to weigh in on what they think the rest of the offseason will bring.

 

Where will Aaron Judge sign? Who will sign the four star shortstops? Which ace is most likely to leave his current team? And who will be the big names in the trade market?

 

We polled a dozen team executives and MLB insiders from across both leagues about free-agent landing spots and who's likely to get moved in trades this offseason. Voters were assured anonymity and were given the option to skip any questions that hit too close to home.

 

Here's how they voted -- and what they had to say about their picks.

 

Will Aaron Judge get a package worth more than $320 million and who will he sign with?

Yes: 7

No: 4

New York Yankees: 6

Los Angeles Dodgers: 3

San Francisco Giants: 2

 

Our voters think Judge is going to one of three teams, but there is a split on which one and how much money he'll get. Either way, he'll likely end up with a contract for about $100 million more than the Yankees offered ($213.5 million) last spring.

 

"He gambled and showed up, but I'm going to say he comes in a bit below [$320 million] and comes home to the West Coast," one voter said of the California native. "Dodgers or Giants. Sounds like Dodgers to me."

 

Which shortstop will get the most dollars and years in free agency?

Trea Turner: 7

Carlos Correa: 5

 

There are four coveted shortstops in this free-agent class, but our panel believes Turner and Correa are in line for the biggest paydays. Correa, 28, was a popular answer due to his age, but Turner, 29, won the vote.

 

"I think his [Turner's] skill set ages the best," one voter said. "Correa has had a couple injuries, while speed doesn't slump, right? All long-term contracts are a risk, but give me a guy with Turner's athleticism any day."

 

Where will the four big free-agent shortstops sign?

Turner: Philadelphia Phillies 6, Dodgers 4, Giants 2

Correa: Yankees 4, Minnesota Twins 3, Giants 3, Chicago Cubs 1, Boston Red Sox 1

Dansby Swanson: Atlanta Braves 6, Cubs 2, Dodgers 2, Giants 2

Xander Bogaerts: Red Sox 4, Giants 4, Dodgers 2, Yankees 1, Cubs 1

 

Amazingly, the Giants showed up in the vote for every shortstop. Of course, San Francisco's public stance on a willingness to spend could have influenced this. But as you might expect, there's no real consensus on where each shortstop will sign. Executives showed the same uncertainty for last offseason's shortstop class. It should make for a wild winter of musical chairs at the position.

 

"Dave Dombrowski isn't going to sit on his hands," said one voter who chose Turner to the Phillies. "His owner seems to be on the same page. I almost wonder how the Phillies don't get one of them."

 

"I just think if the Giants don't get Judge, where else can they sign up a star player?," another voter responded." If they get Judge, then I would vote no on a shortstop. Until then, I think they will get one."

 

Will Jacob deGrom leave the New York Mets?

Yes: 4

No: 8

 

The majority of our voters believe deGrom will return to the team he has spent his entire career with despite the ace testing the free-agent market this winter. Should he leave New York, it would be a surprise to at least one of our respondents if the Mets didn't do something else soon after losing him.

 

"I think deGrom will leave the Mets, but they'll move to quickly replace him," a voter said.

 

Will Justin Verlander leave the Houston Astros?

 

 

Yes: 9

No: 3

 

On the other hand, our participants think that the reigning American League Cy Young Award winner will start the new season with someone other than the reigning World Series champions.

 

"Houston has so much pitching, they can let Verlander walk and spend elsewhere [like they did on Jose Abreu]," one executive said.

 

Which top pitcher after Verlander and deGrom will provide the most value: Carlos Rodon, Kodai Senga, Taijuan Walker or Chris Bassitt?

Bassitt: 5

Rodon: 5

Senga: 2

 

The fact that Senga got votes says a lot about his reputation as an ace in Japan considering he has yet to pitch in the big leagues. Meanwhile, the left-handed Rodon appears to have shed any durability questions after making 31 starts and pitching 178 innings in 2022. But it was the right-handed Bassitt who won this vote. Bassitt's ERA has been higher than Rodon's in each of the past two seasons, but in terms of pure value, the righty edged out the lefty.

 

"I like Rodon in one game for my season, but long term, I think Bassitt is probably the best value," one voter said.

 

"It's really not fair to judge Senga, so I voted for Bassitt as the safest bet," another voter said.

 

Which team (outside of yours) will make the biggest splash this offseason?

Giants: 3

Phillies: 2

Texas Rangers: 2

Dodgers: 2

Red Sox: 1

Yankees: 1

Cubs: 1

 

The variety of teams given in this answer is a good indication of where baseball is right now: with a lot of teams that think they can make the postseason and, more importantly, win the World Series -- and with money to spend to help that cause. Texas might not be an October favorite today, but it should be a hot stove player.

 

"I know the Rangers did it [spent] last season," one voter opined, "but I don't see why they won't again. Bruce Bochy didn't unretire to sit at home in October. This year they'll add pitching. You can count on that."

 

Who will be the most notable player traded this winter?

 

Sean Murphy: 3

Pablo Lopez: 3

Lucas Giolito: 2

Bryan Reynolds: 2

Corbin Burnes: 2

Fernando Tatis Jr.: 1

Kolten Wong: 1

 

Some executives answered who was most likely to be traded as much as who will be the most notable, while the Tatis voter didn't explain his choice -- but certainly raised eyebrows with his pick.

 

"Lopez is such a good trade option at a much lower monetary cost for teams after some of the big free-agent pitchers come off the board," one evaluator said. "With two seasons of control, Miami should get a nice haul."

 

How much do MLB's 2023 rule changes impact your offseason's decision-making: a lot, some or not at all?

Not at all: 6

Some: 4

A lot: 0

 

Among the new rules, the elimination of the shift is most likely to impact roster construction, according to executives at the general manager's meetings earlier this month. But they also say they don't have a complete picture yet. Teams need to see it all in action before they know how it will impact decision-making in the future.

 

"Obviously, you can't hide nonathletic second basemen anymore, but what we don't know is how much the running game will be impacted by all these changes -- both behind the plate and on the bases," one voter said. "I don't think the pitch clock will do much to roster construction long term."

[Spanky__99]

I don't understand the appeal of SF myself. They aren't close to winning are they? ML roster isn't amazing, nor is the farm system.

 

I guess Dodgers would be another choice, but he likely stays in NY.

[Ray]

 

Market seems kinda crazy this year.

[Ehjays]

 

Market seems kinda crazy this year.

 

 

I think the Disney money came into this decision.

[Laika]

Did not expect Eflin to go to Tampa Bay wow

[glory]

I'm sure the Rays are going to turn Eflin into a much better pitcher, but if he's getting a $13m AAV over 3 years, then yeah the SP market is going to be expensive.

[Jimcanuck]

Nice, this will put a bit of pressure on Jays FO to start making moves.

[G-Snarls]

Did not expect Eflin to go to Tampa Bay wow

 

40 million dollars

[RobinThicc]

Damn!

[Carlos Danger]

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/35139041/mlb-offseason-free-agency-survey-baseball-insiders-predictions-signings-trades

 

MLB execs weigh in

 

Nearly a month into the MLB offseason, we're still awaiting the first big splash.

 

While we wait for the movement to pick up entering next week's winter meetings in San Diego, we asked a panel of experts to weigh in on what they think the rest of the offseason will bring.

 

Where will Aaron Judge sign? Who will sign the four star shortstops? Which ace is most likely to leave his current team? And who will be the big names in the trade market?

 

We polled a dozen team executives and MLB insiders from across both leagues about free-agent landing spots and who's likely to get moved in trades this offseason. Voters were assured anonymity and were given the option to skip any questions that hit too close to home.

 

Here's how they voted -- and what they had to say about their picks.

 

Will Aaron Judge get a package worth more than $320 million and who will he sign with?

Yes: 7

No: 4

New York Yankees: 6

Los Angeles Dodgers: 3

San Francisco Giants: 2

 

Our voters think Judge is going to one of three teams, but there is a split on which one and how much money he'll get. Either way, he'll likely end up with a contract for about $100 million more than the Yankees offered ($213.5 million) last spring.

 

"He gambled and showed up, but I'm going to say he comes in a bit below [$320 million] and comes home to the West Coast," one voter said of the California native. "Dodgers or Giants. Sounds like Dodgers to me."

 

Which shortstop will get the most dollars and years in free agency?

Trea Turner: 7

Carlos Correa: 5

 

There are four coveted shortstops in this free-agent class, but our panel believes Turner and Correa are in line for the biggest paydays. Correa, 28, was a popular answer due to his age, but Turner, 29, won the vote.

 

"I think his [Turner's] skill set ages the best," one voter said. "Correa has had a couple injuries, while speed doesn't slump, right? All long-term contracts are a risk, but give me a guy with Turner's athleticism any day."

 

Where will the four big free-agent shortstops sign?

Turner: Philadelphia Phillies 6, Dodgers 4, Giants 2

Correa: Yankees 4, Minnesota Twins 3, Giants 3, Chicago Cubs 1, Boston Red Sox 1

Dansby Swanson: Atlanta Braves 6, Cubs 2, Dodgers 2, Giants 2

Xander Bogaerts: Red Sox 4, Giants 4, Dodgers 2, Yankees 1, Cubs 1

 

Amazingly, the Giants showed up in the vote for every shortstop. Of course, San Francisco's public stance on a willingness to spend could have influenced this. But as you might expect, there's no real consensus on where each shortstop will sign. Executives showed the same uncertainty for last offseason's shortstop class. It should make for a wild winter of musical chairs at the position.

 

"Dave Dombrowski isn't going to sit on his hands," said one voter who chose Turner to the Phillies. "His owner seems to be on the same page. I almost wonder how the Phillies don't get one of them."

 

"I just think if the Giants don't get Judge, where else can they sign up a star player?," another voter responded." If they get Judge, then I would vote no on a shortstop. Until then, I think they will get one."

 

Will Jacob deGrom leave the New York Mets?

Yes: 4

No: 8

 

The majority of our voters believe deGrom will return to the team he has spent his entire career with despite the ace testing the free-agent market this winter. Should he leave New York, it would be a surprise to at least one of our respondents if the Mets didn't do something else soon after losing him.

 

"I think deGrom will leave the Mets, but they'll move to quickly replace him," a voter said.

 

Will Justin Verlander leave the Houston Astros?

 

 

Yes: 9

No: 3

 

On the other hand, our participants think that the reigning American League Cy Young Award winner will start the new season with someone other than the reigning World Series champions.

 

"Houston has so much pitching, they can let Verlander walk and spend elsewhere [like they did on Jose Abreu]," one executive said.

 

Which top pitcher after Verlander and deGrom will provide the most value: Carlos Rodon, Kodai Senga, Taijuan Walker or Chris Bassitt?

Bassitt: 5

Rodon: 5

Senga: 2

 

The fact that Senga got votes says a lot about his reputation as an ace in Japan considering he has yet to pitch in the big leagues. Meanwhile, the left-handed Rodon appears to have shed any durability questions after making 31 starts and pitching 178 innings in 2022. But it was the right-handed Bassitt who won this vote. Bassitt's ERA has been higher than Rodon's in each of the past two seasons, but in terms of pure value, the righty edged out the lefty.

 

"I like Rodon in one game for my season, but long term, I think Bassitt is probably the best value," one voter said.

 

"It's really not fair to judge Senga, so I voted for Bassitt as the safest bet," another voter said.

 

Which team (outside of yours) will make the biggest splash this offseason?

Giants: 3

Phillies: 2

Texas Rangers: 2

Dodgers: 2

Red Sox: 1

Yankees: 1

Cubs: 1

 

The variety of teams given in this answer is a good indication of where baseball is right now: with a lot of teams that think they can make the postseason and, more importantly, win the World Series -- and with money to spend to help that cause. Texas might not be an October favorite today, but it should be a hot stove player.

 

"I know the Rangers did it [spent] last season," one voter opined, "but I don't see why they won't again. Bruce Bochy didn't unretire to sit at home in October. This year they'll add pitching. You can count on that."

 

Who will be the most notable player traded this winter?

 

Sean Murphy: 3

Pablo Lopez: 3

Lucas Giolito: 2

Bryan Reynolds: 2

Corbin Burnes: 2

Fernando Tatis Jr.: 1

Kolten Wong: 1

 

Some executives answered who was most likely to be traded as much as who will be the most notable, while the Tatis voter didn't explain his choice -- but certainly raised eyebrows with his pick.

 

"Lopez is such a good trade option at a much lower monetary cost for teams after some of the big free-agent pitchers come off the board," one evaluator said. "With two seasons of control, Miami should get a nice haul."

 

How much do MLB's 2023 rule changes impact your offseason's decision-making: a lot, some or not at all?

Not at all: 6

Some: 4

A lot: 0

 

Among the new rules, the elimination of the shift is most likely to impact roster construction, according to executives at the general manager's meetings earlier this month. But they also say they don't have a complete picture yet. Teams need to see it all in action before they know how it will impact decision-making in the future.

 

"Obviously, you can't hide nonathletic second basemen anymore, but what we don't know is how much the running game will be impacted by all these changes -- both behind the plate and on the bases," one voter said. "I don't think the pitch clock will do much to roster construction long term."

 

LOL Kolten Wong..

[G-Snarls]

 

Market seems kinda crazy this year.

 

-

 

MLBTR: Eflin will make $11MM in each of the next two seasons, followed by an $18MM salary in 2025

 

-

 

So they'll trade him after 2 years obviously

[connorp]

PIT signing, then this.. how sure are ppl that there wasn’t some change to the revenue sharing system

[Ehjays]

PIT signing, then this.. how sure are ppl that there wasn’t some change to the revenue sharing system

 

This is what I posted the other day.

Each team has a bonus $30 mil

[connorp]

This is what I posted the other day. Each team has a bonus $30 mil

 

Yeah but traditionally that stays in teams like TAM and PIT’s pockets. So something has to be spurring the spending idk

[Stangstag]

-

 

MLBTR: Eflin will make $11MM in each of the next two seasons, followed by an $18MM salary in 2025

 

-

 

So they'll trade him after 2 years obviously

 

Lol. So transparently obvious. Same with the Wander deal. You can pretty much tell exactly how long they’ll be a Ray for

[connorp]

Lol. So transparently obvious. Same with the Wander deal. You can pretty much tell exactly how long they’ll be a Ray for

 

Yeah but it’s not basketball where an expiring contract is a bonus to someone. They’ll have to trade a meh starter making $18m

[G-Snarls]

Yeah but it’s not basketball where an expiring contract is a bonus to someone. They’ll have to trade a meh starter making $18m

 

That will usually net the Rays two fringe pitching prospects who somehow both turn into beasts

[Ehjays]

Did not expect Eflin to go to Tampa Bay wow

 

[G-Snarls]

Lol. So transparently obvious. Same with the Wander deal. You can pretty much tell exactly how long they’ll be a Ray for

 

Exactly

 

Franco making 2M this year

 

By the time he's making 25M a year he'll be long gone

[jaysblue]

 

No state income tax in Florida as well.