Around Baseball 2022

[Captain_Obvious]

Brewers trade Renfroe for Terminator's favorite player Janson Junk, plus 2 prospects

 

Danny Jansen so good his Junk is a major league pitcher.

[BTS]

Brewers trade Renfroe for Terminator's favorite player Janson Junk, plus 2 prospects

 

Kind of weird for Milwaukee. They only have Yelich, Taylor, and Mitchell in the OF right now.

[itaos]

Kind of weird for Milwaukee. They only have Yelich, Taylor, and Mitchell in the OF right now.

 

Ruiz and Frelich should get a chance to make the team out of spring training with Wiemer not far behind.

[Dick_Pole]

Kind of weird for Milwaukee. They only have Yelich, Taylor, and Mitchell in the OF right now.

 

Imagine being a Brewers fan listening to smack from a Blue Jays fan about OF depth after a trade. Ryan Goins is fifth on the Jays OF depth chart right now.

[Ehjays]

[Laika]

Man, just saw the Renfroe trade.

 

Renfroe and Teoscar are both 30. Both arb3. Teoscar projected to make a bit more.

2.4 vs 2.5 WAR in 2022. Projections are like, 2.2 vs 2.0 in favour of Teoscar.

 

Toronto got a lot more than Milwaukee. A lot more. The Angels have up nothing but depth pitching - I don't see a hint of upside in that trio of arms.

Whereas Toronto landed a top 10 org prospect with mid rotation upside + a quality reliever, cheap with control.

[Pendleton]

Man, just saw the Renfroe trade.

 

Renfroe and Teoscar are both 30. Both arb3. Teoscar projected to make a bit more.

2.4 vs 2.5 WAR in 2022. Projections are like, 2.2 vs 2.0 in favour of Teoscar.

 

Toronto got a lot more than Milwaukee. A lot more. The Angels have up nothing but depth pitching - I don't see a hint of upside in that trio of arms.

Whereas Toronto landed a top 10 org prospect with mid rotation upside + a quality reliever, cheap with control.

 

Is it maybe that Renfroe still has more stink of previous failure on him?

[John_Havok]

Man, just saw the Renfroe trade.

 

Renfroe and Teoscar are both 30. Both arb3. Teoscar projected to make a bit more.

2.4 vs 2.5 WAR in 2022. Projections are like, 2.2 vs 2.0 in favour of Teoscar.

 

Toronto got a lot more than Milwaukee. A lot more. The Angels have up nothing but depth pitching - I don't see a hint of upside in that trio of arms.

Whereas Toronto landed a top 10 org prospect with mid rotation upside + a quality reliever, cheap with control.

 

One of the pitchers names is literally Junk. Janson Junk. That's an 80 grade pitcher name.

[Laika]

Is it maybe that Renfroe still has more stink of previous failure on him?

 

100%

 

Renfore has demonstrated replacement level floor (2020) and Teo has shown 4 WAR upside (2021).

 

So while their MEAN PROJECTION is close the shape of their possible projected outcomes is not the same. Like Renfroe's 90th percentile projection is probably 3 wins and Teo's might be 4.5. And similar thing in other direction, Teo might be a 1 WAR 20th percentile projection and Renfroe is 0 WAR at 20th percentile.

 

I believe most teams probably think probabilistically like this. Most teams in most cases aren't just thinking of the mean projected WAR. I would make this assumption about the smart teams at least.

[Laika]

Not enough people do this in basic baseball discourse. It helps to just use these three questions:

 

1. what is the mean projection

2. what does a 90th percentile projection look like? (i.e., how good can he "reasonably" be?)

3. what does a 10th percentile projection look like? (i.e., how bad might he "reasonably" be?)

 

Best recent example might be Cleveland. When they targeted Andres Gimemez in the Lindor trade they probably had some type of idea of his "reasonable high end outcome" and then of course they had the development/coaching systems to help the player achieve that outcome.

 

No point thinking of the 1% or 99% outcomes. Every player could die tomorrow and every once in a while some player will do an RA Dickey thing and figure out a way to become a Superstar without having the physical talent to do it in a normal way.

 

The baseballtradevalues website that slaps $$ values on prospects probably overvalues most of them.

[jaysblue]

Hunter Renfroe looks a bit like Mike Trout haha.

[Stangstag]

100%

 

Renfore has demonstrated replacement level floor (2020) and Teo has shown 4 WAR upside (2021).

 

So while their MEAN PROJECTION is close the shape of their possible projected outcomes is not the same. Like Renfroe's 90th percentile projection is probably 3 wins and Teo's might be 4.5. And similar thing in other direction, Teo might be a 1 WAR 20th percentile projection and Renfroe is 0 WAR at 20th percentile.

 

I believe most teams probably think probabilistically like this. Most teams in most cases aren't just thinking of the mean projected WAR. I would make this assumption about the smart teams at least.

 

Teo’s savant page at least has a ton of red, vs Renfroe who looks very underwhelming.

[Laika]

Teo’s savant page at least has a ton of red, vs Renfroe who looks very underwhelming.

 

Yes but a good chunk of that display is redundant. Like, AvgEV, MaxEV, Barrel%, HardHit%, xSLG are pretty similar metrics. Not a TON of new information between them.

 

Defensive routes = Renfroe

Arm = Renfroe

K Rate = Renfroe

MaxEV = Teoscar in 2022 but basically tied over career

Barrel% = Teoscar

SprintSpeed = Teoscar

 

I think across these relevant component skills you can say they are pretty similar. They both can whack the ball, with comparable authority.

Teoscar whiffs more but also barrels the ball more; the narrative is that he is a more aggressive hitter but probably has a better hit tool / more confident hitter.

Teoscar has better tools and is much faster but Renfroe is the more sound defender. It's significant too and has accounted for like 2 full WAR difference between them over their careers.

 

(I'd like to see them tweak the statcast dashboard a bit)

[Terminator]

It's easy to hate on the Angels but could they in fact be decent this year? 1-9 looks good. Rotation looks fine as well.

 

Bench and bullpen stink but there's plenty of time. I don't think there's much help in the upper minors either.

[BTS]

It's easy to hate on the Angels but could they in fact be decent this year? 1-9 looks good. Rotation looks fine as well.

 

Bench and bullpen stink but there's plenty of time. I don't think there's much help in the upper minors either.

 

I remember posting this like 3 weeks into last season. It didn't end well for me.

[Laika]

It's easy to hate on the Angels but could they in fact be decent this year? 1-9 looks good. Rotation looks fine as well.

 

Bench and bullpen stink but there's plenty of time. I don't think there's much help in the upper minors either.

 

it's a trap

[Terminator]

I remember posting this like 3 weeks into last season. It didn't end well for me.

 

Yeah I remember that lol. It probably is a trap but the 1-9 and the 1-5 looks pretty good. Going to need to knock the rest of the offseason out of the park but if they do they could be WC3 contenders. *but probably will finish with 72 wins*

[John_Havok]

It's easy to hate on the Angels but could they in fact be decent this year? 1-9 looks good. Rotation looks fine as well.

 

Bench and bullpen stink but there's plenty of time. I don't think there's much help in the upper minors either.

 

Last season batting order 1-2-3 was the best in the majors cumulatively. 4-9 were the worst.

[BTS]

Last season batting order 1-2-3 was the best in the majors cumulatively. 4-9 were the worst.

 

I think Perry Minasian might be an idiot. They were basically all in and some of the playing time allocations were ridiculous:

 

349 PA for Andrew Velasquez

375 PA for Max Stassi

163 PA for Tyler Wade

454 PA for Jared Walsh

159 PA for Kurt Suzuki

 

That's like 1500 PA on guys who put up a combined -2 fWAR. The only one who should have been given any leash at all is Walsh.

[Terminator]

Well if Urshela, Renfroe and O'Hoppe soak up most of those ABs that should help. Problem is someone will end up getting hurt and they are razor thin after the 1-9 so it will likely be more of the same.

[Laika]

I think Perry Minasian might be an idiot. They were basically all in and some of the playing time allocations were ridiculous:

 

349 PA for Andrew Velasquez

375 PA for Max Stassi

163 PA for Tyler Wade

454 PA for Jared Walsh

159 PA for Kurt Suzuki

 

That's like 1500 PA on guys who put up a combined -2 fWAR. The only one who should have been given any leash at all is Walsh.

 

Well I have been TOLD that Minasian is an idiot.

[Ehjays]

I think Perry Minasian might be an idiot. They were basically all in and some of the playing time allocations were ridiculous:

 

349 PA for Andrew Velasquez

375 PA for Max Stassi

163 PA for Tyler Wade

454 PA for Jared Walsh

159 PA for Kurt Suzuki

 

That's like 1500 PA on guys who put up a combined -2 fWAR. The only one who should have been given any leash at all is Walsh.

 

[Laika]

Angels.... project to be a middle of the pack team right now. Alongside the Red Sox, Twins, White Sox.

 

The depth is just so bad, as usual.

 

One injury in the OF and they are starting Adell or Moniak.

The infield (3B/2B/SS) is old (Rendon, Urshela), injury prone (Rendon), and mediocre (Urshela, Rengifo, Fletcher) without good depth after the top 4 names.

They still need a 1B.

Their bullpen looks like s***. The backend is seriously Loup, Tepera, and Jimmy Herget.

 

One plus is that they might get Chris Rodriguez and Griffin Canning back in 2023. Important SP depth for them and both were interesting young SP options in recent memory.

[G-Snarls]

Angels.... project to be a middle of the pack team right now. Alongside the Red Sox, Twins, White Sox.

 

The depth is just so bad, as usual.

 

One injury in the OF and they are starting Adell or Moniak.

The infield (3B/2B/SS) is old (Rendon, Urshela), injury prone (Rendon), and mediocre (Urshela, Rengifo, Fletcher) without good depth after the top 4 names.

They still need a 1B.

Their bullpen looks like s***. The backend is seriously Loup, Tepera, and Jimmy Herget.

 

One plus is that they might get Chris Rodriguez and Griffin Canning back in 2023. Important SP depth for them and both were interesting young SP options in recent memory.

 

It doesn't help than Rendon only plays 50 games a year

[Spanky__99]

It doesn't help than Rendon only plays 50 games a year

 

His injuries have happened the last two seasons for different things, I think he should be good to go this season.

[Brownie19]

Angels.... project to be a middle of the pack team right now. Alongside the Red Sox, Twins, White Sox.

 

The depth is just so bad, as usual.

 

One injury in the OF and they are starting Adell or Moniak.

The infield (3B/2B/SS) is old (Rendon, Urshela), injury prone (Rendon), and mediocre (Urshela, Rengifo, Fletcher) without good depth after the top 4 names.

They still need a 1B.

Their bullpen looks like s***. The backend is seriously Loup, Tepera, and Jimmy Herget.

 

One plus is that they might get Chris Rodriguez and Griffin Canning back in 2023. Important SP depth for them and both were interesting young SP options in recent memory.

 

The Angels still need a lot of things to fall into place. They need Walsh to not suck. He was good in 2020 and 2021. They need Rendon to be healthy and could really use Stassi to bounce back, as he was solid in 2021. They probably also need either Adell or Moniak to break out and fulfill their promise.

[Terminator]

On first glance it kind of looks like the Angels defense is pretty atrocious as well. Rendon, Urshela, Rengifo infield. Ward-Trout-Renfroe outfield. Rookie Catcher.

[L54]

On first glance it kind of looks like the Angels defense is pretty atrocious as well. Rendon, Urshela, Rengifo infield. Ward-Trout-Renfroe outfield. Rookie Catcher.

 

Better ask Laika for confirmation before you stick your neck out too far

[G-Snarls]

[G-Snarls]

How many position players have had TJS?

 

I can only recall a handful, including Didi Gregorious.

 

No way they have Harper throwing from the OF in May but he might be able to DH?

 

Man he's been so good but also seems high risk for breaking down badly