Around Baseball 2022

[wilko]

Diaz has a .133 career ISO

 

He has big biceps but he probably punches like a baby

 

Like punching in a dream.

[Olerud363]

I'm not buying the cherry picking of the starters. If you remove the worst pitchers from the Blue Jays rotation then it's obviously going to look a lot better as well. Additions like Bass are not reflected in our statistics either, nor are they for any other team.

 

Good god. The entire point is that the Mariners top 4 is Castillo, Kirby, Gilbert and Ray. Gonzales is removed because he isn't part of the top 4.

 

If you are projecting for the playoffs, or for next year, you can remove the Ms worse pitchers, Flexson and Gonzales and replace with Castillo and Kirby. If you are projecting the Jays for the playoffs can you do the same? You can remove Kikuchi of course, but Berrios?

 

f***. Nobody is just arbitrarily removing the Ms worse pitchers. They have literally been removed, removed because they've been replaced. Removed because in the real world transactions were made to replace them. You don't live in the real world, just the weird world of Grant.

 

I am sure anyone evaluating the current state of the Jays, has added Bass in, in their assessment. We all have. It's just that Castillo is a better acquisition then Bass.

 

We've all included Stripling in our assessment of where the Jays are in September 2022... just that Kirby is probably better then Stripling.

 

The Ms as configured in September 2022 get a bit of a booost, as compared to their year long stats given new additions and development. So do the Jays, just not nearly as much.

[z3r0s]

Arozarena might be a bit of a magnet for altercations. Second one that's public.

[Carlos Danger]

The Royals have fired Dayton Moore. A lot of you new school guys are probably very happy.

[jaysblue]

Arozarena might be a bit of a magnet for altercations. Second one that's public.

 

Trade for him this offseason!

[G-Snarls]

Trade for him this offseason!

 

Don't trade with the Rays

 

Ever

[Ehjays]

Trade for him this offseason!

 

If the guy is a problem in the clubhouse , do you really want him?

[Grant77]

Good god. The entire point is that the Mariners top 4 is Castillo, Kirby, Gilbert and Ray. Gonzales is removed because he isn't part of the top 4.

 

If you are projecting for the playoffs, or for next year, you can remove the Ms worse pitchers, Flexson and Gonzales and replace with Castillo and Kirby. If you are projecting the Jays for the playoffs can you do the same? You can remove Kikuchi of course, but Berrios?

 

f***. Nobody is just arbitrarily removing the Ms worse pitchers. They have literally been removed, removed because they've been replaced. Removed because in the real world transactions were made to replace them. You don't live in the real world, just the weird world of Grant.

 

I am sure anyone evaluating the current state of the Jays, has added Bass in, in their assessment. We all have. It's just that Castillo is a better acquisition then Bass.

 

We've all included Stripling in our assessment of where the Jays are in September 2022... just that Kirby is probably better then Stripling.

 

The Ms as configured in September 2022 get a bit of a booost, as compared to their year long stats given new additions and development. So do the Jays, just not nearly as much.

 

Long story short, you have a hunch that the Mariners average pitching staff is going to improve in the future. Fine. It's certainly possible.I'm just not going to pretend that this season didn't happen. It did and we don't live in your fantasy land where the events that don't support your outlandish conclusions didn't happen.

[Spanky__99]

If the guy is a problem in the clubhouse , do you really want him?

 

Pretty sure that was tongue in cheek.

[jaysblue]

If the guy is a problem in the clubhouse , do you really want him?

 

John Schneider will put him in his place.

[Grant77]

I have a hard time believing that JD was ever a problem in the clubhouse. I think that was a media created narrative.

[Olerud363]

Long story short, you have a hunch that the Mariners average pitching staff is going to improve in the future. Fine. It's certainly possible.I'm just not going to pretend that this season didn't happen. It did and we don't live in your fantasy land where the events that don't support your outlandish conclusions didn't happen.

 

No you moron. I don't have 'a hunch'. I have data that says Luis Castilla is better than Marco Gonzales.

 

Marco Gonzales according to fangraphs is a sub-replacement player. So the fangraphs season totals include a lot of Marco Gonzales and much less Luis Castillo, thus they do not accurately reflect the talent level of the Mariners, as of today, September 21st, 2022.

 

As you point out, other teams are in the same situation, having replaced players. However the difference between Luis Castillo and Marco Gonzales is greater then say, the difference between Kevin Bass and Trent Thornton, or the difference between Mitch White and Kikuchi.

 

What you are essentially saying is that.

 

a) Players get replaced at the trade deadline...

but it doesn't matter the quality of the replacements....

 

 

Idiot!

[Spanky__99]

Long story short, you have a hunch that the Mariners average pitching staff is going to improve in the future. Fine. It's certainly possible.I'm just not going to pretend that this season didn't happen. It did and we don't live in your fantasy land where the events that don't support your outlandish conclusions didn't happen.

 

Dude...

 

[Ehjays]

 

 

I still see Judge going to The Giants. But the Yankees fans will lose their s***. This is gonna be good, complete over pay or he is gone.

[Grant77]

Dude...

 

 

I know he's a troll, but I don't let him get off the hook that easy when he's so obviously wrong.

[Jimcanuck]

I know he's a troll, but I don't let him get off the hook that easy when he's so obviously wrong.

 

He's schooled you, bruh

[Carlos Danger]

He's schooled you, bruh

 

That is part of Grant’s programming. Losing baseball argument/debate with opponent presenting legitimate data points and facts.

 

Sort menu= self destruct/delete BJMB account/default mode = Call poster troll.

[Grant77]

He's schooled you, bruh

 

You would say that regardless of the conversation. The facts are all there are your opinion isn't needed to confirm that they are 100% correct.

 

The guy recently made an absolute fool of himself trashing Guerrero Jr in a nonsensical rant and now he's on a hot streak. Hopefully Olerud's streak of being wrong continues and the Mariners struggle.

[BTS]

 

I still see Judge going to The Giants. But the Yankees fans will lose their s***. This is gonna be good, complete over pay or he is gone.

 

 

 

I would have done everything in my power to extort him for as much money as possible.

[jaysblue]

I would have done everything in my power to extort him for as much money as possible.

 

Yeah like free autographed baseballs, jerseys, bats, or even Postseason tickets for the Yankees. It's not like Judge can't afford it haha.

[jaysblue]

 

 

I still see Judge going to The Giants. But the Yankees fans will lose their s***. This is gonna be good, complete over pay or he is gone.

 

Judge can be the next Barry Bonds of this decade for the Giants. Along with the DH spot now. He'll bring in the fans and money from jersey sales etc.

[Stangstag]

Mariners lose and Rays lose.

 

At least we didn’t lose any ground tonight

[The Cats Ass]

I would have done everything in my power to extort him for as much money as possible.

 

This. If it's that important to Judge let him pay for it. I'd sell to whoever was offering the most money, maybe offer Judge last right of refusal.

 

I've seen estimates that put the value of it around $100,000 to $150,000. $100,000 is less than what Judge was paid to play that one game.

 

I wonder if these fans that catch special balls are highly pressured into giving it back. And are told something like "We'll make it worth you while". Then after giving the ball up, they're given a shirtsey or whatever.

[Spanky__99]

Judge can be the next Barry Bonds of this decade for the Giants. Along with the DH spot now. He'll bring in the fans and money from jersey sales etc.

 

Jersey sales are shared equity regardless.

[Ehjays]

 

Pretty cool score for Hunter Greene!! Had them all sign their jerseys and put down their credentials on their number. Yadi didnt bother with his.

[Brownie19]

 

Pretty cool score for Hunter Greene!! Had them all sign their jerseys and put down their credentials on their number. Yadi didnt bother with his.

 

Interesting that Pujols put 600 HRs and not 700

[Spanky__99]

Solid man...

 

[Olerud363]

You would say that regardless of the conversation. The facts are all there are your opinion isn't needed to confirm that they are 100% correct.

 

The guy recently made an absolute fool of himself trashing Guerrero Jr in a nonsensical rant and now he's on a hot streak. Hopefully Olerud's streak of being wrong continues and the Mariners struggle.

 

Jesus H. Christ. Are you referring the recent conversation where you compared Guerrero to 9 guys who reached 100 homeruns faster than him, and had an average of about 20 fWAR through age 23 compared to Guerrero's 10? And I compared Guerrero to his baseball reference top 10 most similar players through age 23?

 

In the more distance past I am certainly guilty of occasionally dissing Guerrero. Since 2019 he's frustrated many of us, For God's sake someone (not me) started a 'Send Vlad to Indy ball' thread which I contributed to many times. However in a saner moment I did walk back from the ledge and compared him to Gary Shefield (this was before his 2021). So my long term record of Guerrero posts does have some nuttiness but moments of clarity as well.

 

However I suspect you are referring to our recent debate that went like this.

 

Grant: Here are 9 players who reached 100 homers faster than Guerrero and had an average of 20 fWAR at age 23 compared to Guerrero's 10.

Me: Guerrero is solid, but here are his baseball reference comparable through age 23 based on baseball reference similarity score.

[Olerud363]

You would say that regardless of the conversation. The facts are all there are your opinion isn't needed to confirm that they are 100% correct.

 

The guy recently made an absolute fool of himself trashing Guerrero Jr in a nonsensical rant and now he's on a hot streak. Hopefully Olerud's streak of being wrong continues and the Mariners struggle.

 

FYI - for anyone who didn't see it, below is the 'non-sensical' rant Grant is accusing me of making.

 

To summarize, in my "rant" I accuse Guerrero of...

 

1. Being a 9 fWAR guy through age 23 (true)

2. That guys similar to Vlad would be big guys (true Vlad is big)

3. That guys similar to Vlad would be power hitters, all right hitters, not 230, 200 k guys.

4. That Vlad (9 fWAR through age 23) should be the median of his comparison group.

 

Perhaps point 3 is the one Grant has issue with. Where I called Vlad merely an "all-right" hitter, whereby Grant thinks he should be in a group with Micky Mantle. By all-right I mean "pretty good". Like a .280 .350 .500 hitter, but below elite, like not Tony Gwynn with 40 homerun power (though Vlad has shown that level for a couple months at a time, as Cody Bellinger has too, he hasn't been consistent with it).

 

"Below are the players on your list career WAR through age 23. It is clear that players with 20 WAR through age 23 almost always make the hall of fame, but Vlad isn't even half that. He's only at 9. Any honest list of Vlad comparables would be guys with 7-11 WAR through age 23, 1b types, big guys, power hitters but allright hitters, not .230 200 strikeout guys. That's the list we'd want to see to get an idea what guys similar to Vlad do the rest of the way. A list of 9 WAR Vlad, and 20 WAR guys who got to 100 homers faster then he did isn't really telling us much."

[Olerud363]

You would say that regardless of the conversation. The facts are all there are your opinion isn't needed to confirm that they are 100% correct.

 

The guy recently made an absolute fool of himself trashing Guerrero Jr in a nonsensical rant and now he's on a hot streak. Hopefully Olerud's streak of being wrong continues and the Mariners struggle.

 

And sorry for ranting on and on over this like a crazy person, but there are so many levels of statistical tom-foolery in Grant's posts...

 

Is Guerrero even "hot" right now? Depends what your sample size is, and if you choose the right sample size he is "HOT". I mean he is on a 14 game hit streak right? Though for the last 14 games he's not amazing. I think really close to his season average actually?

 

SO

 

last 2 at bats - 1/2 with a 2.000 slugging. HOT

last 2 games - 2/11 for a sub .200 average NOT HOT

last week - probably HOT, 3 homers, some infield singles.

last 2 weeks - 14 game hitting streak, but actually pretty close to his season average.

September - NOT HOT. He is still having a rough September even with his awesome last 2 at bats and 14 game hit streak.

2022 - Hitting slightly below his career average. NOT NOT HOT but NOT HOT.

last 2 years - I would say HOT. When you factor in his great 2021 and 30 homer 2022 he has looking pretty good.

career - Slightly below 80 hit tool projections over-all, but shown enough elite level stretches (mostly in 2021) and non-collapse 2022 that he's.. I don't know... met expectations? Or has he as compared to expectations April 2019?

 

This is a pretty long rant, and maybe polluting the quality of this fine message board, but I don't think it's "un-hinged". Really just trying to figure out if Vlad is "HOT" or "NOT" and looking at his performance over different time scales.