Jays 2021/22 General Off-Season Discussion

[TheHurl]

I know. I simply sorted the FG leaderboard by defensive contribution to WAR, and Duvall, Hays and O'Neill are top 3, Lourdes #8. Not a real egregious nomination, just odd for a guy regularly replaced for defensive reasons to be a GG finalist.

 

He was 4th in AL Fielding Bible voting (6th overall). You could say that they probably got the AL LF pretty close to correct.

 

http://www.fieldingbible.com/images/Vote_2021_LF.png

[saskjayfan]

He was 4th in AL Fielding Bible voting (6th overall). You could say that they probably got the AL LF pretty close to correct.

 

http://www.fieldingbible.com/images/Vote_2021_LF.png

 

Lourdes has a pretty good outfielder jump. He obviously lacks speed, but his reaction time and routes are actually really good. The long run to a high shallow pop fly isn't his play, but with his arm and jump on hard hit balls he's a decent left fielder.

[wamco]

So I went over to mlb trade value website and these were valued at fair trades. Wanted to get some reactions.

 

Kirk and hiraldo for Matt Chapman

 

Kirk biggio van eyk and hiraldo for ketel marte

 

Groshans Kirk de Castro for Chapman and manaea

 

Espinal and Otto Lopez for bassit (sp oak 1/9 left on contract)

 

Moreno hiraldo and hoglund

For Jose Ramirez

 

Groshans biggio Morris and tiedmann for montas (oak sp)

 

Van eyk for Kyle Hendricks (2/28 contract)

 

McGwire grichuk and 5m for Kimbrel

 

Hiraldo and tiedemann for Hendricks and 8m

 

Guierriel and Otto Lopez for Matt Chapman

 

Hoglund McGwire and van eyk for Kyle Hendricks and 14m

 

Groshans teo Kirk and hiraldo for Jose Ramirez

 

Guierriel espinal McGwire van eyk for Chapman and manaea

 

Hoglund McGwire van eyk for bassit

 

Biggio and hoglund for bassit

 

Hiraldo mcgwire and grichuk for Donaldson Kepler and thielbarrp minn)

 

Grichuk for David price

 

Grichuk and 5m for odorizzi

 

Groshans and gurriel for Chapman and manaea

 

Jansen and Otto Lopez for bassit

 

Guierriel for wuantril (sp cle)

 

Guierriel and Kevin smith for sonny gray (1yr 10.6m and club option at 12.5 in 2023)

[Eat My Shatkins]

Could the Jays get Chapman plus one of Manea/Bassitt without giving up Orelvis/Moreno/Groshans?

 

EDIT: LOL the post above I didn't see, pretty much answers that. Certainly possible I guess.

[Eat My Shatkins]

Hiraldo mcgwire and grichuk for Donaldson Kepler and thielbar minn)

 

Big fan of this one.

[TheHurl]

Oakland's lowest need is a catcher. Murphy has 4 or 5 years of control, with McCann loved by the org and a top 30 spect in Soderstrom in High A. They probably would like to improve upon a backup in Allen but I don't see the Jays catchers being that. While it's fair value, it's less logical.

 

I would think Espinal would be a target of Oakland

[keggy]

Lourdes has a pretty good outfielder jump. He obviously lacks speed, but his reaction time and routes are actually really good. The long run to a high shallow pop fly isn't his play, but with his arm and jump on hard hit balls he's a decent left fielder.

 

I'm gonna disagree with you on his routes. I've seen him take complete semicircles to balls on several occasions. I've always liked him as a 3B. I know he had the yips with soft tosses, but I assume he wouldn't have a problem gunning it from the hole.

[Stangstag]

I'm gonna disagree with you on his routes. I've seen him take complete semicircles to balls on several occasions. I've always liked him as a 3B. I know he had the yips with soft tosses, but I assume he wouldn't have a problem gunning it from the hole.

 

Its true, he could probably play a good 3B. He never got a chance to try it, he was playing SS and 2B if I remember correctly. Had the same problems with the short throw Jose Altuve has gone through at various points.

 

We know he has a cannon, he deserves a look at 3B

[Eat My Shatkins]

I wonder, are we continuing to sell Kevin Smith short as a future 3B for the Jays?

 

144 wRC+ as 24 year old rookie in AAA and strong defensive metrics.

 

Maybe the Jays best course of action is to let Smith and Espinal (both projected as 90~ wRC+ by steamer and both solid defenders) duke it out for 3B duties

[Stangstag]

I wonder, are we continuing to sell Kevin Smith short as a future 3B for the Jays?

 

144 wRC+ as 24 year old rookie in AAA and strong defensive metrics.

 

Maybe the Jays best course of action is to let Smith and Espinal (both projected as 90~ wRC+ by steamer and both solid defenders) duke it out for 3B duties

 

His short cup of tea in the majors was god-awful and may have hurt his trade value. Agree its probably best to roll with Espy/Smith at 3B and see how they look in spring training.

 

I also like the idea of giving Vlad and Lourdes some reps at 3B in spring training to see how they look. Would be nice to have more positional flexibility with the 1B/DH/corner OF spots, easiest spots to sign a good LH bat

[Brownie19]

I wonder, are we continuing to sell Kevin Smith short as a future 3B for the Jays?

 

144 wRC+ as 24 year old rookie in AAA and strong defensive metrics.

 

Maybe the Jays best course of action is to let Smith and Espinal (both projected as 90~ wRC+ by steamer and both solid defenders) duke it out for 3B duties

 

I think this all comes down to how comfortable the Jays are with Biggio. If they think he's a 3.5+ WAR player that he was in 2019 & 2020, then I'm sure they're relatively comfortable with Espinal/Smith at 3rd. If they aren't confident Biggio can be an impact player at 2nd base, then I don't think they'll roll with Espinal/Smith and will look to add a short term fix. Of course if they aren't confident with Biggio at all, they could just add an impact player at 2nd and roll with Esp/Smith at 3rd.

[Eat My Shatkins]

Kirk and Van Eyk for Pablo Lopez

 

Sign Syndergaard 1 x $25M

Sign Schwarber 3 x $45M

Sign Yates 1 x $2M

Sign Neris 3 x $33M

Sign Givens 1 x 6M

 

----------------------------------------------

 

C - Jansen

1B - Vladdy

2B - Biggio

3B - Espinal / Smith

SS - Bo

LF - Gurriel

CF - Springer

RF - Teo

DH - Schwarber

 

1. Springer

2. Vladdy

3. Schwarber

4. Bo

5. Teo

6. Gurriel

7. Jansen

8. Biggio

9. Espinal / Smith

 

-------------------------------------------

 

B - Valera

B - Espinal / Smith

B - Mcguire

B - Grichuk

 

--------------------------------------

 

SP - Berrios

SP - Manoah

SP - Lopez

SP - Ryu

SP - Syndergaard

 

CP - Romano

RP - Neris

RP - Givens

RP - Yates

RP - Mayza

RP - Cimber

RP - Merryweather

RP - Richards

 

 

 

I think that's roughly about a $175 million payroll?

[RustyTrombone]

Kirk and Van Eyk for Pablo Lopez

 

Sign Syndergaard 1 x $25M

Sign Schwarber 3 x $45M

Sign Yates 1 x $2M

Sign Neris 3 x $33M

Sign Givens 1 x 6M

 

----------------------------------------------

 

C - Jansen

1B - Vladdy

2B - Biggio

3B - Espinal / Smith

SS - Bo

LF - Gurriel

CF - Springer

RF - Teo

DH - Schwarber

 

1. Springer

2. Vladdy

3. Schwarber

4. Bo

5. Teo

6. Gurriel

7. Jansen

8. Biggio

9. Espinal / Smith

 

-------------------------------------------

 

B - Valera

B - Espinal / Smith

B - Mcguire

B - Grichuk

 

--------------------------------------

 

SP - Berrios

SP - Manoah

SP - Lopez

SP - Ryu

SP - Syndergaard

 

CP - Romano

RP - Neris

RP - Givens

RP - Yates

RP - Mayza

RP - Cimber

RP - Merryweather

RP - Richards

 

 

 

I think that's roughly about a $175 million payroll?

 

Thats a bit much for Thor no? Coming of TJ?

Thats probably not enough for Schwarber. Can easily see a team going 4/80+ for him.

Whatever move with Yates. same as last year. If it hits great if not only 2M guaranteed.

LOL to Neris.

Not paying a mediocre reliever like Givens 6M.

[Abomination]

I think this all comes down to how comfortable the Jays are with Biggio. If they think he's a 3.5+ WAR player that he was in 2019 & 2020, then I'm sure they're relatively comfortable with Espinal/Smith at 3rd. If they aren't confident Biggio can be an impact player at 2nd base, then I don't think they'll roll with Espinal/Smith and will look to add a short term fix. Of course if they aren't confident with Biggio at all, they could just add an impact player at 2nd and roll with Esp/Smith at 3rd.

 

I think they'll look to pick up a 3rd baseman. The other guys are incredibly valuable super utility players, but they haven't shown they can be more and we want to win next year. Free agents like Bryant (unlikely), Kyle Seager (actually seems like a possible fit), or a trade for Chapman (not as unlikely as it sounds if Oakland's payroll rumours are true) could all be solutions.

 

I wonder if we could sign both Seagers to play together? One at 2nd and one 3rd.

[Brownie19]

Nick Groke of The Athletic reports that Jon Gray rejected a late-season contract extension offer from the Rockies of three years and $35-40 million.

 

The Rockies chose to hang on to Gray at the trade deadline, apparently in large part because they intended to ink him to a long-term deal. However, the right-hander is now slated to reach free agency after not biting on an offer which the Rockies extend during their final homestand, per Groke. Colorado does evidently plan to extend Gray a qualifying offer, which he seems likely to reject.

[Stangstag]

I think they'll look to pick up a 3rd baseman. The other guys are incredibly valuable super utility players, but they haven't shown they can be more and we want to win next year. Free agents like Bryant (unlikely), Kyle Seager (actually seems like a possible fit), or a trade for Chapman (not as unlikely as it sounds if Oakland's payroll rumours are true) could all be solutions.

 

I wonder if we could sign both Seagers to play together? One at 2nd and one 3rd.

 

Definitely feels like Seager (older) will be a Bluejay in 2022. He just checks off so many boxes... LH hitter, solid defense at 3B, vetrin presents, likely won’t command a multi-year deal...

[Olerud363]

Definitely feels like Seager (older) will be a Bluejay in 2022. He just checks off so many boxes... LH hitter, solid defense at 3B, vetrin presents, likely wonÂ’t command a multi-year deal...

 

Seager is a great option as the third position player added. I would want to sign him as a risk signing. It may seem strange to view a 34 year old as a guy with upside, however his home/road splits are dramatic and it would be interesting to see how he would do in Toronto, as a 140 game player kept away from the toughest lefties. He could also totally fall apart so you don't want to have to count on him.

 

If Payroll is high enough and Seager's price is reasonable they could throw 10 million or something at him.

[Stottlemyres_Bloody_Chin]

Its pretty hard to hit 35 home runs and only OPS .723, but Seager did it.

 

No thanks to left handed Randall

[Spanky99]

Its pretty hard to hit 35 home runs and only OPS .723, but Seager did it.

 

No thanks to left handed Randall

 

Yeah, Seager blows.

[Eat My Shatkins]

I'd be ok with signing Kyle if it meant Corey was also signing with the Jays to play 2B.

[Olerud363]

Yeah, Seager blows.

 

He may blow because he is old, but he is not Randal. Walks more, way better road splits. 35 career WAR to Randal's 10. Beat Randal 2.5 to 0.5 last year, projected to beat him 2-1 next year.

 

If Randal and Seager played in the same park no one would compare them.

[Spanky99]

He may blow because he is old, but he is not Randal. Walks more, way better road splits. 35 career WAR to Randal's 10. Beat Randal 2.5 to 0.5 last year, projected to beat him 2-1 next year.

 

If Randal and Seager played in the same park no one would compare them.

 

Thanks for the update, mate. Seager blows.

[Spanky99]

I'd be ok with signing Kyle if it meant Corey was also signing with the Jays to play 2B.

 

He wouldn't come here to play 2nd base, he's on the market in the 6 hole, bro. To get him to play 2nd you'd already have to pay more than the King's ransom he'll ask, not to mention term.

[Stottlemyres_Bloody_Chin]

Thanks for the update, mate. Seager blows.

 

Agreed. He hit what, .210 last year with a sub .300 OBP and skyrocketing strikeout rates.

 

Espinal is better, and super cheap.

 

If we sign Kyle we're dumn.

[jerb]

 

Mike Wilner

@Wilnerness

 

Eight #Bluejays have been officially declared free agents: Corey Dickerson, Jarrod Dyson, Steven Matz, David Phelps, Robbie Ray, Marcus Semien, Joakim Soria, Kirby Yates

[jerb]

[Abomination]

Agreed. He hit what, .210 last year with a sub .300 OBP and skyrocketing strikeout rates.

 

Espinal is better, and super cheap.

 

If we sign Kyle we're dumn.

 

He also had the highest barrel % of his career and the highest exit velocity, just a suppressed BABIP. Almost everything else was in line with his career numbers except the odd uptick in strikeouts. Basically, it appears he was unlucky. It's not really any different than his 2018 season.

[Olerud363]

Thanks for the update, mate. Seager blows.

 

Update!

 

Seager had 3 WAR in 2019 in 100 games, 1.5 WAR in 60 games in 2020. 2.5 in 2021.

 

Terrible batting average but decent secondary stats. Plays in a horrible hitters park.

 

Giants just won 107 games by getting good seasons by a bunch of older guys like Seager.

[thatoneguy]

Update!

 

Seager had 3 WAR in 2019 in 100 games, 1.5 WAR in 60 games in 2020. 2.5 in 2021.

 

Terrible batting average but decent secondary stats. Plays in a horrible hitters park.

 

Giants just won 107 games by getting good seasons by a bunch of older guys like Seager.

 

In fairness though, you can't count on this formula to work for everyone.

[Spanky99]

Update!

 

Seager had 3 WAR in 2019 in 100 games, 1.5 WAR in 60 games in 2020. 2.5 in 2021.

 

Terrible batting average but decent secondary stats. Plays in a horrible hitters park.

 

Giants just won 107 games by getting good seasons by a bunch of older guys like Seager.

 

Aim higher, I'd rather Taylor or Bryant and I'm good.

 

P.S. Just busting your balls.