GDT (4/4) | Blue Jays (33-30) @ Red Sox (39-27) | June 14 — 7:10 PM

[Stangstag]

Inb4 Chatwood pitches the 9th in a tie game next time we face the Rays. I fully expect it.

 

Montoyo is really dumb. Its gonna be brutal if we make the wildcard game

[TwistedLogic]

Not sure what everyone's so riled up about.

 

The Jays can still win this game and then you'll be glad Romano's available to grab the save.

 

Let's go Blue Jays.

[Ray]

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/save-your-closer-terms-and-conditions-may-apply/

 

For the most part, though, the rules of engagement in the ninth inning this year are simple and controlled completely by the high-leverage environment of extra innings. Tied? Save your closer for when you most need them, with a runner 180 feet away from scoring. Winning? Put your foot on the gas and try to end it right there.

 

Don't have much of a problem with Romano not coming in. Dolis hasn't been good, but he's also been unlucky. Castro over Dolis is a wash at best.

 

It's a tough situation with the bullpen right now. It would've been good (if not at least average) had it not incurred a severe amount of injuries. The front office did its job by compiling a good amount of arms that got wrecked by injuries. Montoyo literally only has 1 good reliever in Romano right now with the rest being gigantic question marks. We probably shouldn't overpay for a reliever right now, but it’s sucks blowing games like this.

 

Tough spot.

Edited June 15, 2021 by Ray

[WryNGinger]

I'm glad Vladdy got the late homer if for only so that that Manoah didn't get the L. He didn't pitch the best game but I like that he battled instead of pitching scared.

[RobinThicc]

The bullpen is s***

 

I dont agree with waiting to use romano, especially since it was the heart of the lineup, but montoyo has a bunch of s*** options.

 

Atkins has to address this asap.

[THANOS]

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/save-your-closer-terms-and-conditions-may-apply/

 

 

 

Don't have much of a problem with Romano not coming in. Dolis hasn't been good, but he's also been unlucky. Castro over Dolis is a wash at best.

 

It's a tough situation with the bullpen right now. It would've been good (if not at least average) had it not incurred a severe amount of injuries. The front office did its job by compiling a good amount of arms that got wrecked by injuries. Montoyo literally only has 1 good reliever in Romano right now with the rest being gigantic question marks. We probably shouldn't overpay for a reliever right now, but it’s sucks blowing games like this.

 

Tough spot.

 

I was pissed at 1st but this. You can't fault this logic much. Yes you can call for Castro instead, but tough to know for sure if either is a better option.

 

At this point, Atkins needs to do something.

[G-Snarls]

The bullpen is s***

 

I dont agree with waiting to use romano, especially since it was the heart of the lineup, but montoyo has a bunch of s*** options.

 

Atkins has to address this asap.

 

Agreed

 

At this point I'm probably more upset with the FO not helping out the bullpen than I'm upset with how Montoyo is employing what he has available

[DigitalRock]

Agreed

 

At this point I'm probably more upset with the FO not helping out the bullpen than I'm upset with how Montoyo is employing what he has available

 

This, Montoyo is bad but the pen is a mess right now.

[Laika]

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/save-your-closer-terms-and-conditions-may-apply/

 

 

 

Don't have much of a problem with Romano not coming in. Dolis hasn't been good, but he's also been unlucky. Castro over Dolis is a wash at best.

 

It's a tough situation with the bullpen right now. It would've been good (if not at least average) had it not incurred a severe amount of injuries. The front office did its job by compiling a good amount of arms that got wrecked by injuries. Montoyo literally only has 1 good reliever in Romano right now with the rest being gigantic question marks. We probably shouldn't overpay for a reliever right now, but it’s sucks blowing games like this.

 

Tough spot.

 

Right, I didn't even think of this.

 

To spell it out for everyone - if Montoyo used Romano successfully in the bottom of the 9th that just means it would have been Dolis, or Castro, or whoever pitching the bottom of the 10th with a runner on second. Romano is basically the only reliever with a half decent chance of stranding that extra innings runner.

[connorp]

Right, I didn't even think of this.

 

To spell it out for everyone - if Montoyo used Romano successfully in the bottom of the 9th that just means it would have been Dolis, or Castro, or whoever pitching the bottom of the 10th with a runner on second. Romano is basically the only reliever with a half decent chance of stranding that extra innings runner.

 

You spelling it out doesn’t change much for the argument use your best pitcher in that situation to face the best hitters. You don’t even know what the situation would be in the 10th (could be up by 3). Not saying one way is the right way but no need to spell it out

[glory]

Right, I didn't even think of this.

 

To spell it out for everyone - if Montoyo used Romano successfully in the bottom of the 9th that just means it would have been Dolis, or Castro, or whoever pitching the bottom of the 10th with a runner on second. Romano is basically the only reliever with a half decent chance of stranding that extra innings runner.

 

But by bringing in Dolis to face the meat of their order, you're greatly reducing the chances of there even being a 10th inning. So while yes the Jays would have had to bring in Dolis or Castro or whoever for the 10th (assuming Romano kept them scoreless in the 9th), just getting to the 10th itself should have been the goal for Montoyo. As mentioned, the Jays could have scored a bunch of runs in the top half and given the scrub RP the Jays brought in some wiggle room.

[BigCecil]

Agreed

 

At this point I'm probably more upset with the FO not helping out the bullpen than I'm upset with how Montoyo is employing what he has available

 

I'm equally pissed at both about this. Yes, the pen is horrible and yes so are a lot of Charlie's decisions to use said horrible pen. We are ruining an otherwise great season.

[G-Snarls]

I'm equally pissed at both about this. Yes, the pen is horrible and yes so are a lot of Charlie's decisions to use said horrible pen. We are ruining an otherwise great season.

 

SP has been good and the lineup is fantastic

 

Yes it's infuriating to see so many late inning losses when we go pen to pen against teams like Tampa.

[Spanky99]

I'm equally pissed at both about this. Yes, the pen is horrible and yes so are a lot of Charlie's decisions to use said horrible pen. We are ruining an otherwise great season.

 

That's why Hatch and Murphy should be up here, like yesterday. f***, stretching them out... when guys come back healthy they can option them back to Buffalo to stretch out.

[RustyTrombone]

Remember back when we had phelps to pitch the 6th, good chatwood to pitch the 7th, romano to pitch the 8th and then merryweather to pitch the 9th? Good times

[Spanky99]

SP has been good and the lineup is fantastic

 

Yes it's infuriating to see so many late inning losses when we go pen to pen against teams like Tampa.

 

To be fair our pen was holding the SP up for the early half of the season, then the injuries hit and just kept piling on. Atkins couldn't foresee all these injuries, but he has to get help internally, pronto. Give Chuckles something to work with.

[Spanky99]

Remember back when we had phelps to pitch the 6th, good chatwood to pitch the 7th, romano to pitch the 8th and then merryweather to pitch the 9th? Good times

 

Don't forget Yates... God damn, man. Feels like that year we lost all the SP.

[RustyTrombone]

Hobie Harris apparently throws 100 and has been lights out. Dont know why he hasnt been given a shot. Kirby Snead spams sliders and is a lefty so seems like he would have a role against lineups with 3 or more lefties (like the Rays).

[RustyTrombone]

Don't forget Yates... God damn, man. Feels like that year we lost all the SP.

 

Yates? Hmm never heard of him. Dont think a player exists by the name tbh...

[G-Snarls]

Yates? Hmm never heard of him. Dont think a player exists by the name tbh...

 

Same for that George guy....

[Laika]

But by bringing in Dolis to face the meat of their order, you're greatly reducing the chances of there even being a 10th inning. So while yes the Jays would have had to bring in Dolis or Castro or whoever for the 10th (assuming Romano kept them scoreless in the 9th), just getting to the 10th itself should have been the goal for Montoyo. As mentioned, the Jays could have scored a bunch of runs in the top half and given the scrub RP the Jays brought in some wiggle room.

 

No, to win the game Toronto has to pitch the bottom of the 9th and the 10th innings, at minimum. Montoyo has to think of them both simultaneously, he can't just ignore the 10th until it happens.

 

Really just a question of whether you want Dolis vs. the heart of their lineup with nobody on base, or Dolis vs. the other part of their lineup with a man on base.

 

A: Romano against the heart in the ninth + Dolis trying to hold the extra inning runner

B: Dolis against the heart in the ninth + Romano trying to hold the extra inning runner

 

You would need to actually do the math on the leverage of both situations and consider the reliever results tendencies (strikeout rate, etc.) It's possible that facing the bottom of the order with an inherited runner is HIGHER leverage than facing the heart of the order with nobody on base.

 

It really is NOT the classic mistake of "saving the closer for a save situation" because of the extra inning rule.

 

You manage the game to win the game, not to survive one more inning.

[Laika]

You spelling it out doesn’t change much for the argument use your best pitcher in that situation to face the best hitters. You don’t even know what the situation would be in the 10th (could be up by 3). Not saying one way is the right way but no need to spell it out

 

shut up connor

[RustyTrombone]

No, to win the game Toronto has to pitch the bottom of the 9th and the 10th innings, at minimum. Montoyo has to think of them both simultaneously, he can't just ignore the 10th until it happens.

 

Really just a question of whether you want Dolis vs. the heart of their lineup with nobody on base, or Dolis vs. the other part of their lineup with a man on base.

 

A: Romano against the heart in the ninth + Dolis trying to hold the extra inning runner

B: Dolis against the heart in the ninth + Romano trying to hold the extra inning runner

 

You would need to actually do the math on the leverage of both situations and consider the reliever results tendencies (strikeout rate, etc.) It's possible that facing the bottom of the order with an inherited runner is HIGHER leverage than facing the heart of the order with nobody on base.

 

It really is NOT the classic mistake of "saving the closer for a save situation" because of the extra inning rule.

 

You manage the game to win the game, not to survive one more inning.

 

Its also possible the Jays offense puts up a 5 spot in the 10th and makes it irrelevant who pitches the 10th.

[TwistedLogic]

Right, I didn't even think of this.

 

To spell it out for everyone - if Montoyo used Romano successfully in the bottom of the 9th that just means it would have been Dolis, or Castro, or whoever pitching the bottom of the 10th with a runner on second. Romano is basically the only reliever with a half decent chance of stranding that extra innings runner.

 

FanGraphs report that backs this up:

 

"Save Your Closer! (Terms and Conditions May Apply)"

 

You should save your best reliever to deal with the ghost-runner in the next inning.

 

The new rules just dictate that you need at least two lights out relievers to compete.

 

Unfortunately, the Blue Jays only have one.

[Laika]

Its also possible the Jays offense puts up a 5 spot in the 10th and makes it irrelevant who pitches the 10th.

 

Everything is possible

 

What is probable though?

 

The run expectancy of having a runner on second with no outs is about 1.068. So if Dolis pitches a clean ninth, the most probable scenario is Toronto scoring one run in the top of the 10th.

[Spanky99]

Same for that George guy....

 

Damn... can't wait to see him manning CF, he's supposed to play 5 innings tonight in CF.

[Spanky99]

Everything is possible

 

What is probable though?

 

The run expectancy of having a runner on second with no outs is about 1.068. So if Dolis pitches a clean ninth, the most probable scenario is Toronto scoring one run in the top of the 10th.

 

About 1.068, lol. Nerd! Your sig is hilarious by the way, Mike...

[Spanky99]

FanGraphs report that backs this up:

 

"Save Your Closer! (Terms and Conditions May Apply)"

 

You should save your best reliever to deal with the ghost-runner in the next inning.

 

The new rules just dictate that you need at least two lights out relievers to compete.

 

Unfortunately, the Blue Jays only have one.

 

That's what he's replying to brosoff?

[TwistedLogic]

That's what he's replying to brosoff?

 

Oops, lmao.

[max silver]

Just finished watching yet another disappointing late inning loss. You really can't say enough good things about Vladdy, this is the most amazing run I've witnessed at the plate from any Blue Jays player since I started watching decades ago. Something really needs to be done with this bullpen though. Dolis has been pretty damn shaky for the most part and it's time to move him down the pecking order. The club looks to have a very good reliever in Castro, and it's time to give him a chance in leverage situations to see what he can do. Aside from Romano and maybe Mayza against lefties, Castro is the only guy that can reliably get outs right now. I really didn't agree with not using Romano against the top of the order, bringing in a guy with a 5+ ERA against the top of the order with zero margin for error is just asking for trouble. I got serious shades of the 2016 wild card game when Britton was left to rot in the bullpen for a situation that never came.