General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2021)

[BCZ]

Play for yourselves, play for your next contract!

[Olerud363]

With the Jays trying to contend why would we not go after both Ray and Semien? What would it take to get them to resign.

 

Ray $80m/4?

Semien $110m/5?

 

Both are tough cases. I may have more confidence in Ray then Semien... but...

 

Semien may end up leading all players in WAR since 2019. His career fWAR will look quite comparable to George Springers at 31. So is he worth 25 million a year? Is he a 5 WAR player moving forward? At the end of the year he'll have 2 7 fWARs, a 3.9 and a bunch of 2ish. What is he at 31-35? It seems to me he doesn't hit the ball nearly as hard as Vlad, Springer or even Bo. He pulls a lot of hardish hit, but not hammered fly balls. Is that a skill that translates forward?

 

Ray -- looks awesome. Like he's turned a corner. Seems he has elite velocity and now elite control. What other guys have made this kind of turn around?

 

Ray's stats look like Randy Johnson's in his 20s, Johnson didn't have his first elite season until 29. What other guys had similar careers as Ray and Johnson up to this point? I am sure I don't remember the ones that didn't become Randy Johnson.

[Stangstag]

With the Jays trying to contend why would we not go after both Ray and Semien? What would it take to get them to resign.

 

Ray $80m/4?

Semien $110m/5?

 

I’d do that for Ray.

 

Semien unfortunately I think we should let go. Career year, he’s the wrong side of 30, and we have quite a few infielders coming up through the minors. Offense is still very good without him. It would also allow Biggio to go back to 2B (or we could make a run at someone like J Ram). I feel we also need to be wary of signing any more guys over 30 to long term 100+ million dollar deals.

 

I’d rather invest extra money into pitching. If we need a 3B/2B maybe look at a stopgap type option.

Edited August 25, 2021 by Stangstag

[Key22]

Both are tough cases. I may have more confidence in Ray then Semien... but...

 

Semien may end up leading all players in WAR since 2019. His career fWAR will look quite comparable to George Springers at 31. So is he worth 25 million a year? Is he a 5 WAR player moving forward? At the end of the year he'll have 2 7 fWARs, a 3.9 and a bunch of 2ish. What is he at 31-35? It seems to me he doesn't hit the ball nearly as hard as Vlad, Springer or even Bo. He pulls a lot of hardish hit, but not hammered fly balls. Is that a skill that translates forward?

 

Ray -- looks awesome. Like he's turned a corner. Seems he has elite velocity and now elite control. What other guys have made this kind of turn around?

 

Ray's stats look like Randy Johnson's in his 20s, Johnson didn't have his first elite season until 29. What other guys had similar careers as Ray and Johnson up to this point? I am sure I don't remember the ones that didn't become Randy Johnson.

 

I suppose the issue I have is the results are there - 2 MVP calibre campaigns and very good defence is tough to ignore. I mean a 400 fit looping fly ball home run is just as much a home run as a 450 foot line drive home run. And it's better than the non-home run we would get from his replacement - Cavan Biggio.

 

Let's say you could sign him for $23 million a year - if you go out an sign someone else to play second and that player is cheaper but worse at $14 million - why not just spend the extra 9million and get the MVP bat for another 2-3 years?

 

But then I always look at stuff this way - buy X car but maybe spend on the next car up the model range for something that will make you happy for the 5 years you own it - sure the payments are a little higher but maybe your happiness index is two times more. Spend more to get more quality.

 

Because the team is somewhat in "win now" mode for the next two years I am not so sure handing over the position to minor leaguers is great. Remember Pearson was supposed to step in and be a top of the rotation starter. Just as good a chance that he turns out to be the next Kyle Drabek. I remember the Phillies fans were on the Toronto forums saying there was no way they would trade the soon-to-be elite future hall of fame, Kyle Drabek, for Roy Halladay - lol.

 

A team in win now mode knows pretty much what Semien is and doesn't know exactly what anyone on their AAA team will be. I am with you if the Jays decide to go for pitching instead. That's where I would go because I agree our offence probably can lose a bat. So of the two Ray is the priority - you can't easily replace your ace. And he's been our ace this year. If there is a one-game playoff it has to be Ray at this point and I would like my chances.

 

Back the Fort Knox truck up to his door. Unless Berrios is Ray's replacement. So far that's not looking too good.

[Scion]

This may be an unpopular take, but I think I would break the bank for Semien. He is on the older side of the age curve, but he has had 2 elite seasons in the last 3 years, and the one off year can reasonably be explained away by the pandemic and a shortened year. More than anything though we know that Semien fits with this team and can produce in the AL East and that cannot be said with 100% certainty of the alternatives on the open market. We also dont know if any of the other top FA are even open to signing in Toronto. Edited August 25, 2021 by Scion

[Laika]

This may be an unpopular take, but I think I would break the bank for Semien. He is on the older side of the age curve, but he has had 2 elite seasons in the last 3 years, and the one off year can reasonably be explained away by the pandemic and a shortened year. More than anything though we know that Semien fits with this team and can produce in the AL East and that cannot be said with 100% certainty of the alternatives on the open market.

 

Hmmmm

[Laika]

This may be an unpopular take, but I think I would break the bank for Semien. He is on the older side of the age curve, but he has had 2 elite seasons in the last 3 years, and the one off year can reasonably be explained away by the pandemic and a shortened year. More than anything though we know that Semien fits with this team and can produce in the AL East and that cannot be said with 100% certainty of the alternatives on the open market.

 

Hmmmm

[max silver]

I suppose the issue I have is the results are there - 2 MVP calibre campaigns and very good defence is tough to ignore. I mean a 400 fit looping fly ball home run is just as much a home run as a 450 foot line drive home run. And it's better than the non-home run we would get from his replacement - Cavan Biggio.

 

Let's say you could sign him for $23 million a year - if you go out an sign someone else to play second and that player is cheaper but worse at $14 million - why not just spend the extra 9million and get the MVP bat for another 2-3 years?

 

But then I always look at stuff this way - buy X car but maybe spend on the next car up the model range for something that will make you happy for the 5 years you own it - sure the payments are a little higher but maybe your happiness index is two times more. Spend more to get more quality.

 

Because the team is somewhat in "win now" mode for the next two years I am not so sure handing over the position to minor leaguers is great. Remember Pearson was supposed to step in and be a top of the rotation starter. Just as good a chance that he turns out to be the next Kyle Drabek. I remember the Phillies fans were on the Toronto forums saying there was no way they would trade the soon-to-be elite future hall of fame, Kyle Drabek, for Roy Halladay - lol.

 

A team in win now mode knows pretty much what Semien is and doesn't know exactly what anyone on their AAA team will be. I am with you if the Jays decide to go for pitching instead. That's where I would go because I agree our offence probably can lose a bat. So of the two Ray is the priority - you can't easily replace your ace. And he's been our ace this year. If there is a one-game playoff it has to be Ray at this point and I would like my chances.

 

Back the Fort Knox truck up to his door. Unless Berrios is Ray's replacement. So far that's not looking too good.

 

I wholeheartedly agree with your sentiments here. I'm also the type to look for value in my purchases, but at the same time I'm willing to pay what I deem to be an appropriate amount in order to get the quality I'm after. Unless the Jays are expecting to compete for an even bigger fish like Correa I think that resigning Semien should be just as high of a priority as Ray this offseason. There is no guarantee that any of Groshans/Otto/Taylor will translate to MLB or be ready within the next year or two to fill the need for a 2B/3B replacement. Hopefully Smith will prove to be the ready made 3B replacement as the defense looks superb and he had put up good quality AB's so far. This offence has really struggled at times, and removing one of the key contributors will weaken the lineup a very large degree.

[Ryu In My House]

I’d do that for Ray.

 

Semien unfortunately I think we should let go. Career year, he’s the wrong side of 30, and we have quite a few infielders coming up through the minors. Offense is still very good without him. It would also allow Biggio to go back to 2B (or we could make a run at someone like J Ram). I feel we also need to be wary of signing any more guys over 30 to long term 100+ million dollar deals.

 

I’d rather invest extra money into pitching. If we need a 3B/2B maybe look at a stopgap type option.

 

I 100% agree with you. Semien is a luxury that would be amazing, but his signing would congest things, lock up a good portion of our payroll, and blocks opportunities for our strong minor league infielders moving forward. However, if we do re-sign him, some of the young talent could be trade bait for other needs.

 

Ray would be a major get.

[Ryu In My House]

This may be an unpopular take, but I think I would break the bank for Semien. He is on the older side of the age curve, but he has had 2 elite seasons in the last 3 years, and the one off year can reasonably be explained away by the pandemic and a shortened year. More than anything though we know that Semien fits with this team and can produce in the AL East and that cannot be said with 100% certainty of the alternatives on the open market.

 

Ray is my priority, but you make good points. The Yankees would find a way to keep him. I wish we could play with the big boys.

[TheHurl]

If they can rebuild the pen, commit 4 + Option years each to Semien and Ray and stay at the $150M payroll of this year...I think they jump at it. I'm not sure that they can though. I'm not 100% sure they believe that will be good enough. It's also of course dependent on Ray and Semien wanting to sign here.

 

In the end I see them signing 1 of the two and exploring more value trades.

[Spanky99]

Toronto has a lot of money coming off the payroll, but you still have to spend responsibly, I could see these guys signing on, depends on the dollars, as our core will get expensive shortly. They just need some decent bullpen pieces and we can compete, payroll is surely going up.

[Terminator]

We should resign them both and trade for J-Ram. It’s time to win.

[Stangstag]

My worry with Semien is that we end up with another 2017 scenario by 2026 where we’re paying Springer + Semien 50 million for replacement level production. Plus paying Vlad 30 mil and possibly other guys. Doesn’t leave much payroll flexibility.

 

That’s worst case scenario IMO, but always in the back of my mind. Players normally just decline through their 30s and there’s nothing you can do. Though I suppose you could argue any long-term contract is risky.

[BigCecil]

Toronto has a lot of money coming off the payroll, but you still have to spend responsibly, I could see these guys signing on, depends on the dollars, as our core will get expensive shortly. They just need some decent bullpen pieces and we can compete, payroll is surely going up.

 

I haven't done the plus/minus math so as usual talking out my ass but with guys like Teo/Vlad in arb and cost of replacing Marcus and Ray WAR net net on payroll do we really have net dollars?, given how cheap they were in 21?

 

Roark plus Yates/Chatwood = $20mm But we really don't have a bullpen yet. I'd prefer not to wing and a prayer it again in 22. We got killed by shut down pens in 15 and 16 playoffs. Most winning teams have that depth and swing & miss in the pen we just don't have enough of.

[Spanky99]

I haven't done the plus/minus math so as usual talking out my ass but with guys like Teo/Vlad in arb and cost of replacing Marcus and Ray WAR net net on payroll do we really have net dollars?, given how cheap they were in 21?

 

Roark plus Yates/Chatwood = $20mm But we really don't have a bullpen yet. I'd prefer not to wing and a prayer it again in 22. We got killed by shut down pens in 15 and 16 playoffs. Most winning teams have that depth and swing & miss in the pen we just don't have enough of.

 

There's also the trade route, we'll see, Shapiro said it would go up.

 

Oh, Tulo comes off... finally.

[BTS]

There's no reason for the team to get tunnel vision with Ray. They already have almost a full rotation locked in, so they have the luxury of being very selective about what 1/2 type they bring in to round it out.

 

Ryu

Berrios

Manoah

Stripling/Pearson/low end FAs

 

Syndergaard, Verlander, Scherzer, Rodon, Gausman, and Greinke could all potentially make more sense, for different reasons, depending on how the offseason plays out.

 

Semien feels like the more irreplaceable piece.

[BigCecil]

There's also the trade route, we'll see, Shapiro said it would go up.

 

Oh, Tulo comes off... finally.

 

Nats didnt really have a great pen come to think of it. But they had horse starters and they rode them and Hudson who we sent them.

 

I was just looking up stuff on Tulo deal to see what if any paid in 21. This article probably wrong. Says it was off in 20?

 

https://jaysjournal.com/2020/11/02/blue-jays-troy-tulowitzkis-contract-finally-off-the-books/

 

Agree with BTS - dont need tunnel vision on Ray. He has been great but for some reason just not really ready to trust it for the type of deal I think he will be offered.

[connorp]

There's no reason for the team to get tunnel vision with Ray. They already have almost a full rotation locked in, so they have the luxury of being very selective about what 1/2 type they bring in to round it out.

 

Ryu

Berrios

Manoah

Stripling/Pearson/low end FAs

 

Syndergaard, Verlander, Scherzer, Rodon, Gausman, and Greinke could all potentially make more sense, for different reasons, depending on how the offseason plays out.

 

Semien feels like the more irreplaceable piece.

 

So the benefit of having Berrios signed for next year is that we can let the better pitcher Ray walk?

[RobinThicc]

Losing Semien is a pretty huge blow to the lineup, obviously. They have to replace him with another high impact position player, if they want to be legit WS contenders IMO.

[Olerud363]

Losing Semien is a pretty huge blow to the lineup, obviously. They have to replace him with another high impact position player, if they want to be legit WS contenders IMO.

 

if they can

 

a) Get Biggio back to 2020 form

Get Gurriel back to 2020 form

c) Stop Guerrero from being bad 60% ground ball rate, 270 pound Vlad

 

That will replace the WAR lost from Semien

[Terminator]

5/125 for Semien is a steal. The guy has turned into a perennial Top 5 MVP candidate.

[Terminator]

There's no reason for the team to get tunnel vision with Ray. They already have almost a full rotation locked in, so they have the luxury of being very selective about what 1/2 type they bring in to round it out.

 

Ryu

Berrios

Manoah

Stripling/Pearson/low end FAs

 

Syndergaard, Verlander, Scherzer, Rodon, Gausman, and Greinke could all potentially make more sense, for different reasons, depending on how the offseason plays out.

 

Semien feels like the more irreplaceable piece.

 

Yeah going long term with Ray seems way more risky to me than it does with Semien.

 

First of all he's a pitcher which is riskier, I trust Semien's track record more, and Semien is just flat out the more valuable player. If we can only sign one Semien is the no brain choice to me.

[Terminator]

if they can

 

a) Get Biggio back to 2020 form

Get Gurriel back to 2020 form

c) Stop Guerrero from being bad 60% ground ball rate, 270 pound Vlad

 

That will replace the WAR lost from Semien

 

And get us right back to being the 85 WAR win team we were this year.

[glory]

Ideally you don't want to sign Semien or Ray for more than four years. That's how many years Vlad and Bo have left on their current years of control, so you don't want to be left paying big money to a declined Springer, plus Semien and Ray past 2025. I don't think either one will get more than 4 years, but Ray is only going to be 30, so a deal that covers 30-34 (a five year deal) for a LH SP coming off the year he's had isn't impossible. I think Semien at 4 years is probably the max he'll get, but at a higher AAV.

 

Honestly, as discussed earlier about selling versus non-selling at the deadline, once the Jays decided to keep both players to make a run, I feel like they might as well try to keep them. Comp picks in the 70's or wherever the hell those picks will fall are not very desirable for a team with a 4 year window, so if they didn't turn those two into assets at the deadline, then offer them both big 4 year deals (along with a big one year offer to Noah, dammit!), hope they take it, and go for it next year. Of course, if MLB implements the soft cap stuff they were talking about then having Springer, Semien, and Ray on FA deals, plus big arb numbers for Vlad and Bo (and possibly an extension for Berrios) would put them at a pretty high number.

 

If you had to choose one to re-sign, I'd probably go with Semien as well (top 10 WAR talent versus SP), but hard to say without knowing how much it will cost.

[Olerud363]

if they can

 

a) Get Biggio back to 2020 form

Get Gurriel back to 2020 form

c) Stop Guerrero from being bad 60% ground ball rate, 270 pound Vlad

 

That will replace the WAR lost from Semien

 

At end of year...

 

Gurriel 1 WAR

Biggio 0 WAR

Vlad 4 WAR (after losing a WAR from his ground ball episode to end the season).

 

Fix those 3 in 2022

 

Gurrien 3 WAR

Biggio 3 WAR

Vlad 6 WAR

 

That is 7 more WAR

[Scion]

At end of year...

 

Gurriel 1 WAR

Biggio 0 WAR

Vlad 4 WAR (after losing a WAR from his ground ball episode to end the season).

 

Fix those 3 in 2022

 

Gurrien 3 WAR

Biggio 3 WAR

Vlad 6 WAR

 

That is 7 more WAR

 

LOL what...

[Stangstag]

And get us right back to being the 85 WAR win team we were this year.

 

Dumb comment, he's obviously saying to use the extra unused Semien money to improve the team in other ways. I do think all 3 of those things happening is unlikely though.

[Stangstag]

At end of year...

 

Gurriel 1 WAR

Biggio 0 WAR

Vlad 4 WAR (after losing a WAR from his ground ball episode to end the season).

 

Fix those 3 in 2022

 

Gurrien 3 WAR

Biggio 3 WAR

Vlad 6 WAR

 

That is 7 more WAR

 

Ok now THIS is dumb post

[Olerud363]

At end of year...

 

Gurriel 1 WAR

Biggio 0 WAR

Vlad 4 WAR (after losing a WAR from his ground ball episode to end the season).

 

Fix those 3 in 2022

 

Gurrien 3 WAR

Biggio 3 WAR

Vlad 6 WAR

 

That is 7 more WAR

 

Also according to this board Charlie is a -5 WAR manager, let's assume that is not true but he is a minus 2 WAR manager, then that is 2 more WAR for 2022 by firing him...

 

And if you actually think Charlie is a -5 WAR manager then just firing him and replacing him with average manager makes up for Semien.