Around Baseball 2021

[TwistedLogic]

[L54]

 

The more pitching on the market the better

[Brownie19]

I mean Chapman + Montas/Manaea/Bassitt certainly seems like a great target fit for the Jays. Would there be concern that both would become FA's in 2023 (Manaea/Bassitt) and 2024 (Chapman/Montas) - right when Bo and Vlad start getting expensive? As always, the cost to acquire them plays a huge factor...

[FantasyNewb]

They’re going to settle for Rodriguez instead of an actual ace, and it won’t go well for them.

 

Ray had 3.9 WAR this year and Rodriguez had 3.8 WAR.... And had a similar year in 2019. He's only 28. It's not a crazy option. Some of you guys seem to rely on WAR until it didn't suit the narrative.

[BTS]

Ray had 3.9 WAR this year and Rodriguez had 3.8 WAR.... And had a similar year in 2019. He's only 28. It's not a crazy option. Some of you guys seem to rely on WAR until it didn't suit the narrative.

 

What narrative?

[Spanky__99]

From MLBTR...

 

Rangers’ brass has suggested on multiple occasions the club anticipates being active in free agency this winter, and it indeed seems ownership is prepared to support an offseason spending spree. Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News reports that the Rangers could add $100MM+ to their payroll this offseason.

 

Wow!

[Spanky__99]

The more pitching on the market the better

 

I think there's a lot, I just mentioned this.

[John_Havok]

Ray had 3.9 WAR this year and Rodriguez had 3.8 WAR.... And had a similar year in 2019. He's only 28. It's not a crazy option. Some of you guys seem to rely on WAR until it didn't suit the narrative.

 

WAR numbers do not necessarily equate to being an ace.

 

In any case, Eduardo is a worthy target, the fact that his ERA was nearly 5 last year should make him cheaper than many other options out there in FA

[max silver]

WAR numbers do not necessarily equate to being an ace.

 

In any case, Eduardo is a worthy target, the fact that his ERA was nearly 5 last year should make him cheaper than many other options out there in FA

 

Rodriguez is an interesting case study in trying determine what went wrong for him. His peripherals are all very solid, and the expected stats paint a much different picture than the end result on the field. I dug a little further and discovered that he really suffered terrible results on his fastball and cut fastball, as each of these had spreads of nearly 70 points when comparing WOBA and xWOBA. Given that these two pitches comprise nearly 60% of his total pitches thrown it's easy to see how the ERA ended up so much higher compared to xERA and FIP values, but it still doesn't explain why it happened. Boston's defence wasn't very good this season, yet Chris Sale was able to produce an ERA of a run and a half less despite having very similar peripherals across the board. Maybe Rodriguez is merely a victim of bad luck this season and his results are bound to improve.

[BTS]

Rodriguez is an interesting case study in trying determine what went wrong for him. His peripherals are all very solid, and the expected stats paint a much different picture than the end result on the field. I dug a little further and discovered that he really suffered terrible results on his fastball and cut fastball, as each of these had spreads of nearly 70 points when comparing WOBA and xWOBA. Given that these two pitches comprise nearly 60% of his total pitches thrown it's easy to see how the ERA ended up so much higher compared to xERA and FIP values, but it still doesn't explain why it happened. Boston's defence wasn't very good this season, yet Chris Sale was able to produce an ERA of a run and a half less despite having very similar peripherals across the board. Maybe Rodriguez is merely a victim of bad luck this season and his results are bound to improve.

 

Rodriguez is a bit scary to me. His fatball velo is unimpressive, and he doesn't really throw a breaking ball. I'm always skeptical of the long-term viability of fastball-changeup starters. Chris Paddack has a simiar profile from the right side, and he has similar issues - when hitters spit on the change he has to come at them with the fastball and it gets crushed.

 

I'd take both in my rotation, but I'd want Rodriguez to be my second-best starter.

[John_Havok]

Rodriguez is an interesting case study in trying determine what went wrong for him. His peripherals are all very solid, and the expected stats paint a much different picture than the end result on the field. I dug a little further and discovered that he really suffered terrible results on his fastball and cut fastball, as each of these had spreads of nearly 70 points when comparing WOBA and xWOBA. Given that these two pitches comprise nearly 60% of his total pitches thrown it's easy to see how the ERA ended up so much higher compared to xERA and FIP values, but it still doesn't explain why it happened. Boston's defence wasn't very good this season, yet Chris Sale was able to produce an ERA of a run and a half less despite having very similar peripherals across the board. Maybe Rodriguez is merely a victim of bad luck this season and his results are bound to improve.

 

There's definitely indicators his luck was ass last season. even simple numbers like his BABIP was way up for some reason. per MLB traderumours:

 

"Rodrgiuez posted career-best marks in strikeout rate (27.4%) and walk rate (7.0%) while effectively tying career-best marks in swinging-strike rate (11.7%), called-strike rate (16.4%) and opponents’ chase rate (33.7%). Rodriguez was also among the very best in baseball in terms of limiting hard contact (90th percentile average exit velocity, 87th percentile hard-hit rate)."

 

Now obviously teams don't make massive judgements on just 1 year, but he's been solid for several now. Definitely not a leader of the rotation, but still can pitch near the top quite well if those results start to match the peripherals.

[jerb]

 

Jon Heyman

@JonHeyman

 

Management source on the state of CBA negotiations: “As bad as I’ve ever see it.” Prediction: “2 1/2 months of pain”

[Spanky__99]

 

Jon Heyman

@JonHeyman

 

Management source on the state of CBA negotiations: “As bad as I’ve ever see it.” Prediction: “2 1/2 months of pain”

 

Welp...

[Brownie19]

Rodriguez is a bit scary to me. His fatball velo is unimpressive, and he doesn't really throw a breaking ball. I'm always skeptical of the long-term viability of fastball-changeup starters. Chris Paddack has a simiar profile from the right side, and he has similar issues - when hitters spit on the change he has to come at them with the fastball and it gets crushed.

 

I'd take both in my rotation, but I'd want Rodriguez to be my second-best starter.

 

He's like a poor man's David Price...can't really spin the ball.

[max silver]

Rodriguez is a bit scary to me. His fatball velo is unimpressive, and he doesn't really throw a breaking ball. I'm always skeptical of the long-term viability of fastball-changeup starters. Chris Paddack has a simiar profile from the right side, and he has similar issues - when hitters spit on the change he has to come at them with the fastball and it gets crushed.

 

I'd take both in my rotation, but I'd want Rodriguez to be my second-best starter.

 

With Berrios and Manoah already locks for the 2022 rotation there are no worries about Rodriguez being the Jay's best starter.

[Stangstag]

 

Jon Heyman

@JonHeyman

 

Management source on the state of CBA negotiations: “As bad as I’ve ever see it.” Prediction: “2 1/2 months of pain”

 

SHOCKER... not

[Spanky__99]

Speaking of Ed-Rod...

 

[glory]

 

Jon Heyman

@JonHeyman

 

Management source on the state of CBA negotiations: “As bad as I’ve ever see it.” Prediction: “2 1/2 months of pain”

 

This free agent market has the chance to be more exciting than any in recent years, especially with a lot more teams than usual looking to spend. Baseball winters tend to be a slog to get through but this one has to the potential to be really good. Hope they agree to something by the deadline. I would imagine they'll agree to something by February to avoid any missed games, but still would suck to lose 2+ months with so many big names available.

[Spanky__99]

Does Lauren Shehadi have the nicest legs in the Sports Industry?

[John_Havok]

Does Lauren Shehadi have the nicest legs in the Sports Industry?

 

Pfft. shameful objectification sir.

 

 

Also, f*** yes she does.

[connorp]

I was just reading an article with all Boras’ douchey plugs of his players. I wonder if he told the White Sox if they tagged Rodon he wouldn’t talk to them about multi-year deal? Not sure if thats allowed but guess that’s how it makes sense

[Jimcanuck]

At the GM meeting this week there was overwhelming support for pitch clocks. Would apparently reduce game time by ~30 mins.

[King]

 

Okay then

[BTS]

 

Okay then

 

On one hand, that's stupid. On the other hand, players are currently paid based on things like wins, saves, HR, and RBI, so this would probably be an improvement.

[connorp]

On one hand, that's stupid. On the other hand, players are currently paid based on things like wins, saves, HR, and RBI, so this would probably be an improvement.

 

Defensive statistics are not nearly good enough to be basing someone’s earnings on for any given year.

[BTS]

Defensive statistics are not nearly good enough to be basing someone’s earnings on for any given year.

 

I'm fairly sure they're currently just looking things like errors/fielding %.

[Deadpool]

 

Okay then

 

RIP bWAR

[John_Havok]

On one hand, that's stupid. On the other hand, players are currently paid based on things like wins, saves, HR, and RBI, so this would probably be an improvement.

 

Wish I could read the whole article. Anyone with a subscription give the condensed version?

 

Like say a 23 year old just had a 7 WAR season, then gets paid next year based on that. WHat happens if he gets hurt and only puts up 2 fWAR next season? Pay cut?

[P2F]

Wish I could read the whole article.

 

CARLSBAD, Calif. — Major League Baseball on Wednesday made an updated proposal for baseball’s reserve system, including a revised approach to eliminating salary arbitration.Overall, the proposal is similar to the one the league made in August, people with knowledge of the discussions said. Like August’s proposal, Wednesday’s would grant players free agency at the age of 29 1/2 and do away with arbitration. The most significant change between the two versions is how player salaries would be determined prior to free agency.

In the August proposal, MLB offered to use a predetermined sum of money that would be distributed to eligible players, those who had reached at least three years of service time. This time, MLB is offering to pay players based on performance, specifically on a calculation of wins above replacement, or WAR. There are multiple variants of WAR, but MLB proposed to rely on FanGraphs’ version, or fWAR. A player’s career WAR would be part of the calculation, weighted for recency. Whether a player has been in the majors for three-plus, four-plus, or five-plus years would affect the calculation.

Performance already greatly influences the current arbitration system, under which players who have reached three years in the majors can go to a hearing to fight for a higher salary than the team proposes. But the current system nonetheless allows flexibility and room for players to argue to a third party for better salaries.

Full details of Wednesday’s proposal were not immediately known, but the players’ union is unlikely to see the proposal in a much better light than August’s version. One player agent said the proposal has “zero chance.”

“Albert Pujols has a better chance of leading the majors in stolen bases,” the agent said. “The central theme of professional sports from the labor side is the ability to negotiate your salary and make a case for what you’re worth. In arbitration, a panel decides. In free agency, the market decides. In this case an algorithm which is obviously flawed would decide. Plus, it would open up the floodgates for WAR manipulation on behalf of the clubs. Also, since when do we let websites have such a direct influence on player salary?”

Using fWAR would create its own biases. The metric likely would hurt relievers, as the market has always valued them higher, though on shorter deals, than fWAR suggests it should. Some strong defenders would be helped by the defensive component of fWAR, but the potential will exist for teams to game those numbers, which currently do not account for defensive opportunities in extreme shifts. Pitching fWAR, meanwhile, is mostly based on strikeouts, walks and homers, potentially hurting pitchers who thrive on soft contact.

MLB sees its proposal as, in part, a way to do away with the acrimony of the arbitration process — which can be uncomfortable for clubs and players alike — and as a way for younger players to be paid more, one of the union’s stated goals. However, the overall trade-off for players under the league’s proposal likely would be steep: Typically, the sport’s best players reach free agency prior to age 29 1/2, because they often arrive in the majors at a young age.

Agreeing to a system that keeps the best players under team control, and at a set scale of pay, for potentially a longer period of time than six years — the current time it takes to get free agency — could lessen those players’ earnings in the long run. And, if the top-earning players in the sport don’t have a way to grow their salaries, then other players’ salaries also might not grow over time.

What the league offered Wednesday was not what would be considered a comprehensive economics proposal. MLB didn’t newly address the competitive balance tax, or draft order, or revenue sharing between teams. It’s not uncommon for one bucket to be discussed separately from others.

The proposals made by both sides thus far seem to speak to a fundamental disagreement the sides have: MLB appears to see player pay as a question of distribution. To get players paid more when younger, the league is effectively proposing a trade-off elsewhere. But the union does not see the amount of money teams pay players today as necessarily fixed, and does not believe it necessarily must harm one set of player interests to benefit another. Of course, MLB will never be eager to allocate more of its revenues to players.

The union has made two full economics proposals, and has taken a different approach for getting players paid younger than the league is taking. Both union proposals have included a means of getting players to arbitration at two years, rather than three years; performance bonuses for players prior to arbitration; and a mechanism to get some players to free agency after five years, if they reach a certain age, among other things.

One additional factor the sides likely would have to contend with: eliminating salary arbitration might be a difficult sell for player agents. Guidance of the process is one of the services they offer, and are paid for.

The sport’s CBA expires at 11:59 p.m. ET on Dec. 1. An owner lockout would likely begin on Dec. 2 if no deal is reached.

 

Ask and ye shall receive

[Deadpool]

Ask and ye shall receive

 

"it would open up the floodgates for WAR manipulation on behalf of the clubs"

 

What the f*** does this mean? This reads like someone who has absolutely no f***ing idea how statistics work.

 

The ONLY drawback I can see is the 29 1/2 thing, as it will delay free agency for SOME players, but the fWAR component should effectively reward the best players. "Relievers" and "pitchers who rely on soft contact" SHOULD get paid less than ones who are, y'know, better.