Around Baseball 2021

[Stangstag]

lol, the Yankees lineup in yesterday's game against the Phillies didn't have a single batter hitting for a .750 OPS or better.

 

 

I still can’t believe the Yankees picked up Odor, who was released by TEXAS, and are playing him every day. And he’s hitting 3rd lol.

 

How is their depth so bad

[Brownie19]

I think there could be about 2 different tiers in this group...

First Tier in no particular order (well somewhat )

Vladdy

Tatis Jr

Acuna

Ohtani

 

Not sure how you leave Soto out of that tier.

[G-Snarls]

Cashman needs to trade for a quality left handed power bat

 

But he's afraid to make any trade he might lose

[G-Snarls]

Not sure how you leave Soto out of that group. I don't see much separation between him and Vlad.

 

Yeah

 

Half a down season for Soto is meaningless

 

Pretty hard to pick among Soto, Tatis and Guerrero Jr at this point

[Sammy225]

I still can’t believe the Yankees picked up Odor, who was released by TEXAS, and are playing him every day. And he’s hitting 3rd lol.

 

How is their depth so bad

 

Imagine having Odor hitting 3rd. Now Judge is having back spasms would be nice if he was out for our series lol.

[BTS]

See, it's tempting to put Guerrero #1. It seems like a complete homer move since Soto has been an offensive monster since 2018 and Acuna and Tatis are incredible two-way players, but Vladdy right now is performing at a level that none of the other three have ever reached over the long term. Perhaps within a season one of them has, I haven't checked.

 

Basically, he may be significantly better than both Tatis and Acuna offensively and with his re-found athleticism and surprising defensive prowess at 1B the gap in secondary skills may be smaller than people think.

 

Vlad right now: 4.1 fWAR, on 150 game pace for 9.76 fWAR

Soto: 4.9 fWAR in best season (2019), 7.66 fWAR in 2020 projected out to 150 games

Acuna: 5.6 fWAR in bet season (2019), 7.83 fWAR in 2020 projected out to 150 games

Tatis: 150 game extrapolated fWARS are 7.65 (2021) 7.37 (2020) 6.42 (2019)

 

What's Vlad's actual offensive level going forward? If he's a 200 wRC+ bat, then he's the most valuable player in baseball, clearly. If he's Mike Trout (say 170) you probably take him over the other three guys. If he's any less than Mike Trout offensively (say 150-165 range) I'll take the others. Soto had a 201 wRC+ and 0.474 xwOBA in 196 PA last year, and now he's back to hitting the ball on the ground. That's just such an insane level to maintain over the long term.

 

If I'm starting a team, I'm not counting on Vlad being a Trout level hitter over the next 6 years, and I'm slotting him under the guys with a longer track record and a wider skill set. I do think there's clearly a 4-player tier at the top with a significant gap between them and the next handful of players though. Ohtani maybe being the only exception, but his durability is a real concern.

[Laika]

What's Vlad's actual offensive level going forward? If he's a 200 wRC+ bat, then he's the most valuable player in baseball, clearly. If he's Mike Trout (say 170) you probably take him over the other three guys. If he's any less than Mike Trout offensively (say 150-165 range) I'll take the others. Soto had a 201 wRC+ and 0.474 xwOBA in 196 PA last year, and now he's back to hitting the ball on the ground. That's just such an insane level to maintain over the long term.

 

If I'm starting a team, I'm not counting on Vlad being a Trout level hitter over the next 6 years, and I'm slotting him under the guys with a longer track record and a wider skill set. I do think there's clearly a 4-player tier at the top with a significant gap between them and the next handful of players though. Ohtani maybe being the only exception, but his durability is a real concern.

 

1) I really don't know. Too early I guess.

2) Vlad has better tools than Juan Soto, without question. Soto is more like, a Joey Votto tool package.

[Scion]

MLB is disbanded then reassembled. Rank these players on your redraft board. You get them for a fresh six years. Just rank as many as you feel like.

 

Acuna

Tatis

Soto

Guerrero

Franco

Ohtani

Bichette

Albies

Kyle Tucker

Bieber

Moncada

Bellinger

Gleyber Torres

Robert

Buehler

Yordan Alvarez

 

 

Guerrero

Soto

Tatis

Acuna

Bellinger

Moncada

Ohtani

Bichette

Robert

Bieber

Buehler

Franco

Albies

Alvarez

Tucker

Torres

[Scion]

What's Vlad's actual offensive level going forward? If he's a 200 wRC+ bat, then he's the most valuable player in baseball, clearly. If he's Mike Trout (say 170) you probably take him over the other three guys. If he's any less than Mike Trout offensively (say 150-165 range) I'll take the others. Soto had a 201 wRC+ and 0.474 xwOBA in 196 PA last year, and now he's back to hitting the ball on the ground. That's just such an insane level to maintain over the long term.

 

If I'm starting a team, I'm not counting on Vlad being a Trout level hitter over the next 6 years, and I'm slotting him under the guys with a longer track record and a wider skill set. I do think there's clearly a 4-player tier at the top with a significant gap between them and the next handful of players though. Ohtani maybe being the only exception, but his durability is a real concern.

 

I know those other guys have longer MLB track records, but as far as track record of being an elite hitter at any level you could make the argument that Vlad actually has the best track record. Moreover, the more time passes the more it seems like his weight was a legitimate excuse/reason for his sub par play (relative to expectations) in his first two years.

Edited June 14, 2021 by Scion

[connorp]

Guerrero

Soto

Tatis

Acuna

Bellinger

Moncada

Ohtani

Bichette

Robert

Bieber

Buehler

Franco

Albies

Alvarez

Tucker

Torres

 

You must be like BTS and have Bellinger in some fantasy league. Always wise to keep your leverage in future negotiations

[Brownie19]

Tatis

Acuna

Guerrero

Soto

Ohtani

Franco

Bichette

Kyle Tucker

Moncada

Bieber

Buehler

Albies

Robert

Bellinger

Yordan Alvarez

Gleyber Torres

[Slyfisher]

https://www.si.com/mlb/2021/06/14/sticky-stuff-bubba-harkins-speaking-out-daily-cover

 

Interesting

[Scion]

You must be like BTS and have Bellinger in some fantasy league. Always wise to keep your leverage in future negotiations

 

My justification is that his peak is better than most guys on this list. Maybe I overrate that relative to the overall and recent body of work, maybe not.

[G-Snarls]

First batch of ASG votes are in:

 

Edited June 14, 2021 by G-Snarls

[TwistedLogic]

From yesterday's Yankees post-game thread. This made me laugh harder than I care to admit.

 

[G-Snarls]

No love for Cedric Mullins yet I see

 

Trout won't be able to play in the ASG

 

And Mullins has been better than every other OF except Buxton

 

Guessing he hasn't "earned" the name recognition yet that a guy like Judge gets

[BCZ]

For some reason statcast is using barrels/PA instead of barrels/AB... that's pretty stupid... in other words if you walk more you get penalized...

 

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/statcast

[Laika]

For some reason statcast is using barrels/PA instead of barrels/AB... that's pretty stupid... in other words if you walk more you get penalized...

 

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/statcast

 

1) There's no penalty. It's not a value determination. Just a list. Up to the reader to determine the significance.

 

2) You should get penalized for walking more.

 

"a walk is nary but a hittor muzzling thy own lumber" - William Shakespeare

[Laika]

OMFG David Fletcher

 

zero barrels in 2021

one barrel in 2020

one barrel in 2019

one barrel in 2018

 

THE GUY HAS THREE BARRELS IN HIS ENTIRE CAREER. THREE. IN 1200 BATTED BALLS.

[Brownie19]

OMFG David Fletcher

 

zero barrels in 2021

one barrel in 2020

one barrel in 2019

one barrel in 2018

 

THE GUY HAS THREE BARRELS IN HIS ENTIRE CAREER. THREE. IN 1200 BATTED BALLS.

 

Barrels

A batted ball with the perfect combination of exit velocity and launch angle

[BCZ]

1) There's no penalty. It's not a value determination. Just a list. Up to the reader to determine the significance.

 

2) You should get penalized for walking more.

 

"a walk is nary but a hittor muzzling thy own lumber" - William Shakespeare

 

"...what you've just said is one of the most insanely idiotic things I have ever heard. At no point in your rambling, incoherent response were you even close to anything that could be considered a rational thought. Everyone in this room is now dumber for having listened to it. I award you no points, and may God have mercy on your soul." - Billy Madison's Principal

[BCZ]

OMFG David Fletcher

 

zero barrels in 2021

one barrel in 2020

one barrel in 2019

one barrel in 2018

 

THE GUY HAS THREE BARRELS IN HIS ENTIRE CAREER. THREE. IN 1200 BATTED BALLS.

 

That's f***in awesome... in the worst way possible.

[BCZ]

Barrels

A batted ball with the perfect combination of exit velocity and launch angle

 

Also known as hitting a ball good

[G-Snarls]

That's f***in awesome... in the worst way possible.

 

And yet he has 10 career home runs

[Brownie19]

Just noticed that Austin Gomber has actually been decent for the Rockies this year. Good to see them get 'some' value in return for Arenado, who's been a stud.

[Olerud363]

I know those other guys have longer MLB track records, but as far as track record of being an elite hitter at any level you could make the argument that Vlad actually has the best track record. Moreover, the more time passes the more it seems like his weight was a legitimate excuse/reason for his sub par play (relative to expectations) in his first two years.

 

That's a good point. There's a lot of random variation in a single season, especially last year's 60 game season,

[Olerud363]

"...what you've just said is one of the most insanely idiotic things I have ever heard. At no point in your rambling, incoherent response were you even close to anything that could be considered a rational thought. Everyone in this room is now dumber for having listened to it. I award you no points, and may God have mercy on your soul." - Billy Madison's Principal

 

 

A lot of us long timers follow Cito Gaston, Murph, and the 'base clogger' theory. Sometimes guys just clog the bases. There is actually a stat for it called 'based clogged'... it's walks + doubles - stolen bases + triples... if you walk 100 times and hit lots of doubles, but no triples and no steals it means you are slow and just clogging it up.

[TwistedLogic]

A lot of us long timers follow Cito Gaston, Murph, and the 'base clogger' theory. Sometimes guys just clog the bases. There is actually a stat for it called 'based clogged'... it's walks + doubles - stolen bases + triples... if you walk 100 times and hit lots of doubles, but no triples and no steals it means you are slow and just clogging it up.

 

I haven't looked into the analytics for this at all but I refuse to believe that the base-clogging theory isn't just the dumbest thing ever.

 

If a fast runner can score from first, a slow runner can probably score from second. I don't see how a slow guy would be in the way.

[G-Snarls]

A lot of us long timers follow Cito Gaston, Murph, and the 'base clogger' theory. Sometimes guys just clog the bases. There is actually a stat for it called 'based clogged'... it's walks + doubles - stolen bases + triples... if you walk 100 times and hit lots of doubles, but no triples and no steals it means you are slow and just clogging it up.

 

Like, oh, I don't know..... the guy you used for your message board name?

[G-Snarls]

Olerud was so slow - it was painful to watch him run