Around Baseball 2021

[Spanky__99]

Would have preferred Ohtani if it had to be anyone

 

Vlad's got this, man!

[Jimcanuck]

Pretty much everyone not named Trout will need a lot of luck and work to make it from a young age. Machado and Harper are pretty safe bets among guys in their 20s. And in a couple of years we'll probably be saying the same thing about Acuna, Tatis, and possibly Guerrero.

 

Betts, Harper, and Machado are 3 late 20's guys for which the next few years will determine if they are HOF worthy or not. Of the 3, I think Machado is the one most likely to fade like J. Upton.

[Spanky__99]

FTJ goes yard!!!

[BCZ]

FTJ goes yard!!!

 

Am I missing something? Why do we care?

[Spanky__99]

Who's we, you? Around Baseball Thread? I care.

[connorp]

Vlad's got this, man!

 

Ohtani can’t pitch now either. .250 BA, respectable ERA. Vlad can win this mofo

[Spanky__99]

Ohtani can’t pitch now either. .250 BA, respectable ERA. Vlad can win this mofo

 

lol... maybe if he wins the Triple Crown.

[John_Havok]

lol... maybe if he wins the Triple Crown.

 

Might be a lot of vote splitting with Semien though. So many writers look at the MVP as "most valuable to his team" and will see Semien doing what he does, Teo doing what he does, Bo, Springer etc, and the pretty decent rotation the Jays have and arrive at the conclusion that Vlad isn't the most valuable Blue Jay.

 

It doesn't make sense to me, but then again I'm not 90 and 40 years removed from covering the sport.

[P2F]

Speaking of the Cy, who are the likely current frontrunners for AL Cy - is it Cole, Ray, and Eovaldi? And if not, then who?

[Spanky__99]

Speaking of the Cy, who are the likely current frontrunners for AL Cy - is it Cole, Ray, and Eovaldi? And if not, then who?

 

Has to be them 3, Those stinkers with Ray against the O's might cost him a Cy, I think it's Cole's right now.

[Orgfiller]

Speaking of the Cy, who are the likely current frontrunners for AL Cy - is it Cole, Ray, and Eovaldi? And if not, then who?

 

He won't win it but Lance Lynn will be up there as well with his ERA. The innings will rightfully dock him though.

[Orgfiller]

Has to be them 3, Those stinkers with Ray against the O's might cost him a Cy, I think it's Cole's right now.

 

Ray came back from that performance with a dominant outing against the Rays though. If he finishes strong he'll have a better ERA in more innings than Cole and blows his RA-9 WAR out of the water. I think if the season ended today it's Ray by a hair.

[Laika]

Ray is going to lead in IP and he has a good shot at leading in ERA (if Lance Lynn doesn't qualify). Narrative could be on Ray's side too if Toronto makes it in - he has carried his team more than the other candidates have. And his FIP / fWAR lagging looks to be a bit unfair or not indicative of skill.

 

Hard to bet on the voters not leaning for Cole because of, you know, New York and wins.

 

Could end up decided by who misses the playoffs.

 

Not sure Eovaldi is really that close because he's not going to end up leading any of Wins, K's, ERA, or IP.

 

Lynn will be short on IP but has been excellent.

 

Ray is actually way ahead in RA9-WAR and bWAR.

 

He's got it!

[Spanky__99]

Ray came back from that performance with a dominant outing against the Rays though. If he finishes strong he'll have a better ERA in more innings than Cole and blows his RA-9 WAR out of the water. I think if the season ended today it's Ray by a hair.

 

Certainly close, the NL seems pretty tight as well.

[max silver]

Speaking of the Cy, who are the likely current frontrunners for AL Cy - is it Cole, Ray, and Eovaldi? And if not, then who?

 

I really don't know how the voters are going to weigh traditional stats vs saber stats. Traditional stats wise right now I'd go Ray due to slightly better ERA and more innings pitched, but by saber stats like K rate, walk rate, FIP, xERA etc. Cole gets the nod. I say Ray due to the crazy run he's gone on for the last several months but I'm biased as a Jays fan.

[Omar]

[Brownie19]

Betts, Harper, and Machado are 3 late 20's guys for which the next few years will determine if they are HOF worthy or not. Of the 3, I think Machado is the one most likely to fade like J. Upton.

 

Longoria was another....

[Spanky__99]

Longoria was another....

 

He's making a dead cat bounce back, bro.

[G-Snarls]

Phillies cane back from 7-0 to win 17-8

 

Bunch of big hits by Harper

Edited September 17, 2021 by G-Snarls

[Laika]

Longoria was another....

 

He's making a dead cat bounce back, bro.

 

Longoria could reach that 60 WAR threshold with a productive late 30s but I still don't think there is much chance he'll get in.

 

- won't hit even 400 homers

- will have an AVG in the .260s

 

He needs to pump out two more VERY GOOD years and then hope Scott Rolen gets in so he can follow that path

 

The Rolen half of that is looking fine but the Longoria production part is not likely

[Brownie19]

Longoria could reach that 60 WAR threshold with a productive late 30s but I still don't think there is much chance he'll get in.

 

- won't hit even 400 homers

- will have an AVG in the .260s

 

He needs to pump out two more VERY GOOD years and then hope Scott Rolen gets in so he can follow that path

 

The Rolen half of that is looking fine but the Longoria production part is not likely

 

Unfortunately I don't think Longoria has that in him. The bounce back this year has been great to see, but it's still just 1/2 a season worth of PA's and it seem unlikely he can sustain it. Too bad as he was one of my favourites as a kid.

 

This discussion always makes me think of David Wright. 48.7 fWAR at age 30. He was on his way to finishing as one of the Top 10 best 3rd basemen of all time before the back injury.

[AMS528]

Semi related, but I think standards for pitchers to make the HOF are likely to change because the old standards are going to be tough for basically most guys who started their career in the last decade.

 

Amongst active pitchers, you've got the four guys who are all incredibly likely to make it (Scherzer, Verlander, Greinke, Kershaw) and then you've got Sale, Degrom and Gerrit Cole who all have a shot. Those three all 30 or older though.

 

Amongst guys in their 20's right now, there are only three (!) with more than 15 WAR. Aaron Nola at 24.4 (at the age of 28), German Marquez (16.2 age 26) and Robbie Ray (one amazing year has pushed him all the way to 15.5 at age 29).

 

In their 20's Greinke had 35 WAR, Verlander had 36 WAR, Kershaw had 58 WAR (!). Scherzer was the only one who had a a slower start with 24 WAR before 30. Barring Nola having a Scherzer like 30's which is possible, the next group of guys has not been able to accumulate numbers the same way. Don't see many of them that'll get to 30 WAR before 30 either.

[Abomination]

Semi related, but I think standards for pitchers to make the HOF are likely to change because the old standards are going to be tough for basically most guys who started their career in the last decade.

 

Amongst active pitchers, you've got the four guys who are all incredibly likely to make it (Scherzer, Verlander, Greinke, Kershaw) and then you've got Sale, Degrom and Gerrit Cole who all have a shot. Those three all 30 or older though.

 

Amongst guys in their 20's right now, there are only three (!) with more than 15 WAR. Aaron Nola at 24.4 (at the age of 28), German Marquez (16.2 age 26) and Robbie Ray (one amazing year has pushed him all the way to 15.5 at age 29).

 

In their 20's Greinke had 35 WAR, Verlander had 36 WAR, Kershaw had 58 WAR (!). Scherzer was the only one who had a a slower start with 24 WAR before 30.

 

 

Manoah shall rule them all!

[G-Snarls]

Semi related, but I think standards for pitchers to make the HOF are likely to change because the old standards are going to be tough for basically most guys who started their career in the last decade.

 

Amongst active pitchers, you've got the four guys who are all incredibly likely to make it (Scherzer, Verlander, Greinke, Kershaw) and then you've got Sale, Degrom and Gerrit Cole who all have a shot. Those three all 30 or older though.

 

Amongst guys in their 20's right now, there are only three (!) with more than 15 WAR. Aaron Nola at 24.4 (at the age of 28), German Marquez (16.2 age 26) and Robbie Ray (one amazing year has pushed him all the way to 15.5 at age 29).

 

In their 20's Greinke had 35 WAR, Verlander had 36 WAR, Kershaw had 58 WAR (!). Scherzer was the only one who had a a slower start with 24 WAR before 30. Barring Nola having a Scherzer like 30's which is possible, the next group of guys has not been able to accumulate numbers the same way. Don't see many of them that'll get to 30 WAR before 30 either.

 

Thought Felix Hernandez was a lock first half of his career but he fell right off

[RustyTrombone]

That brings up a really interesting point. There really haven't been any generational pitching talents come up in the last 5 years or so. The same few guys who were dominating the previous gen have kept it up. Degrom is interesting cause he's the best right now but is already into his 30s so how long can he keep it up? If Buehler and Burnes keep it up for the next 5 years or so they could be the next gen of HOF pitchers but there aren't any like 25 and younger pitchers who project like that. Glasnow maybe but now 1.5 of his peaks years are gone. Urias? Hes still only 25. Bieber? Kinda forgot he existed for a sec.

 

With so many future HOF type position players coming up in recent times there might be a imbalance in pitching talent vs hitting talent in the league for the next few years.

[Spanky__99]

Thought Felix Hernandez was a lock first half of his career but he fell right off

 

Ran out of bullets, unfortunately.

[Spanky__99]

Unfortunately I don't think Longoria has that in him. The bounce back this year has been great to see, but it's still just 1/2 a season worth of PA's and it seem unlikely he can sustain it. Too bad as he was one of my favourites as a kid.

 

This discussion always makes me think of David Wright. 48.7 fWAR at age 30. He was on his way to finishing as one of the Top 10 best 3rd basemen of all time before the back injury.

 

Would've been nice to see Longo stay healthy cause he's been incredible this season. I feel David Wright as well, I have the same condition and not near as good surgeons. D'oh!!!

[TwistedLogic]

Felix Hernandez

Evan Longoria

Carl Crawford

David Wright

Ryan Braun

Troy Tulowitzki

Johan Santana

Hanley Ramirez

Joe Mauer

 

The list goes on. This era is filled with guys who looked like surefire hall of famers at one point in their careers and just fell off.

 

From the above list, I think Mauer does get in. But I still can't believe Longoria and Felix aren't going to be in the HoF.

[John_Havok]

Felix Hernandez

Evan Longoria

Carl Crawford

David Wright

Ryan Braun

Troy Tulowitzki

Johan Santana

Hanley Ramirez

Joe Mauer

 

The list goes on. This era is filled with guys who looked like surefire hall of famers at one point in their careers and just fell off.

 

From the above list, I think Mauer does get in. But I still can't believe Longoria and Felix aren't going to be in the HoF.

 

Even Adam Wainright was well on his way, putting up some monster seasons before falling directly off a cliff.

 

I think what it shows is truly how much more difficult it is in today's game to be that good for that long. The gaps between the HOF and the replacement level guys is a lot closer now than it was even 30 years ago, let alone 50 or 100 years ago when the talent pool was more like a puddle.

[glory]