Fire Charlie Montoyo - The thread worked guys!

[Olerud363]

ThatÂ’s great if weÂ’re the Pittsburg Pirate or Baltimore Orioles. Maybe he can manage them instead?

 

What moves would you have made? Are you suggesting they should of released Chatwood?

 

Are you suggesting as of yesterday he should of been already moved out of the top 3 arms?

 

In retrospect the right move would of been to remove Chatwood after two walks in the 7th. Even at that point most of the damage had been done. Leaving him in for an extra batter didn't "lose" a game. It lost 15% of a game or something.

 

According to Blue Jays message board, there are mythical teams that are medium talent, with bad bullpens, that go 30-18 in 1 run games because of savy managing.

 

It doesn't matter that this doesn't exist. It makes Blue Jays Message Board happy to pretend it does. A different manager, would lose different games, in different extruciating ways with this horrible bullpen, but the end result wouldn't be much different.

[Olerud363]

In 2015 Gibby was 15-28 in 1 run games, and underperformed the teams Pythagoran by 10 games. And he had a killer bullpen.

 

If Gibby is such a genius why did this happen? Mostly bad luck. I am sure he made many good moves and they still went wrong.

 

Manager does not have that much effect on the games. Different moves with the same talent will lead to a similar record long term, just different things will go wrong in different games.

 

Gibby had a talented team the first 4 months of 2015, with a better back of bullpen (Osuna, Hendricks, Cecil first 4 months), and it was doing the same as this team, even though they had the legendary Gibby.

[Olerud363]

Key events

 

1. Espinal made a key error

2. Matz lost it after 5 dynamite innings

3. Chatwood had nothing and f'd up the rest of the 6th.

4. Chatwood began the 7th and walked 2.

5. Chatwood was left in too long and walked 2 more.

6. Castro gave up a hard line drive deep enough to score the run.

 

Number 5 is what people are going crazy about, my point is that everyone is acting like that was the game... it wasn't. It was 15% of the game or something.

 

And that is why the Manager actually doesn't have as much effect on the game as this board thinks. The 15 most idiotic crappy things Charlie does over 162, are each 15% of a game, and add up to 2 games over the season.

[Deadpool]

Key events

 

1. Espinal made a key error

2. Matz lost it after 5 dynamite innings

3. Chatwood had nothing and f'd up the rest of the 6th.

4. Chatwood began the 7th and walked 2.

5. Chatwood was left in too long and walked 2 more.

6. Castro gave up a hard line drive deep enough to score the run.

 

Number 5 is what people are going crazy about, my point is that everyone is acting like that was the game... it wasn't. It was 15% of the game or something.

 

And that is why the Manager actually doesn't have as much effect on the game as this board thinks. The 15 most idiotic crappy things Charlie does over 162, are each 15% of a game, and add up to 2 games over the season.

 

Chatwood looked like hot f***ing garbage in the 6th, and Montoyo didn't even consider having someone warmed up in case he continued to look like hot f***ing garbage in the 7th. This is after he did the exact same f***ing thing with the exact same f***ing pitcher several games ago. And after he's made key managerial decisions the DIRECTLY lead to runs being scored against the Jays (or runs not being scored BY the Jays) costing several additional losses.

 

The impact of managers, as a whole, statistically, is not great. We're talking about one specific manger repeatedly making decisions to the detriment of his team. I mean, if he just decided to use Vladdy as a pinch runner exclusively for the rest of the season, would you still be saying "his decisions aren't having much effect on the games..."?

[Laika]

Key events

 

1. Espinal made a key error

2. Matz lost it after 5 dynamite innings

3. Chatwood had nothing and f'd up the rest of the 6th.

4. Chatwood began the 7th and walked 2.

5. Chatwood was left in too long and walked 2 more.

6. Castro gave up a hard line drive deep enough to score the run.

 

Number 5 is what people are going crazy about, my point is that everyone is acting like that was the game... it wasn't. It was 15% of the game or something.

 

And that is why the Manager actually doesn't have as much effect on the game as this board thinks. The 15 most idiotic crappy things Charlie does over 162, are each 15% of a game, and add up to 2 games over the season.

 

Because #5 is the only one where the manager put a player in the position to fail.

 

Players fail all the time. It's part of the game. The manager's job during games is just to use his players in a way that minimizes the amount of failures (and maximizes the amount of successes) on the aggregate. What Montoyo did last game is the exact opposite; it almost seemed like he wanted to embarrass Chatwood.

 

Even if you ignore the context and Chatwood's struggles, he is a reliever who has only thrown 2 innings one time all season. Mostly a one inning guy. Max pitches in any outing before last game was 25 pitches. Any manager with even a 70 IQ would at least have someone getting warm when the 7th begins.

Edited May 31, 2021 by Laika

[saskjayfan]

Key events

 

1. Espinal made a key error

2. Matz lost it after 5 dynamite innings

3. Chatwood had nothing and f'd up the rest of the 6th.

4. Chatwood began the 7th and walked 2.

5. Chatwood was left in too long and walked 2 more.

6. Castro gave up a hard line drive deep enough to score the run.

 

Number 5 is what people are going crazy about, my point is that everyone is acting like that was the game... it wasn't. It was 15% of the game or something.

 

And that is why the Manager actually doesn't have as much effect on the game as this board thinks. The 15 most idiotic crappy things Charlie does over 162, are each 15% of a game, and add up to 2 games over the season.

Manager doesn't matter, manager doesn't matter! Charlie is really giving you guys a hard time. 1 reliever 5 walks. Did Charlie put his team in the best position to win?

 

Chatwood's previous debacle, pulled and Bergen is brought in to get one out to win the game. A rookie lefty who had never been in that spot before. Was that the best guy for that spot? Jordan Romano has reverse splits. Lefties have a .474 OPS against him for his career batting .137. Did Charlie put his team in the best position to win?

 

Tie game and Romano hadn't pitched in 3 days and goes 12 pitches striking out the side. You don't ask him to go a second inning. You bring in a rookie. We scored 2 in the bottom half after the rookie gave up 2. Would Romano have given up 2 runs? Did Charlie put his team in the best position to win?

 

Extra innings runner on third one out tie game. We have the top of our lineup coming up with a runner starting out on 2nd too. Charlie intentionally walks not one, but 2 batters to load the bases with one out. When you're talking modern game theory and run expectation loading the bases tilted the odds in Tampa's favour. I was yelling at the TV when he was intentionally walking guys. These are the type of mistakes that just can't happen. Desperately trying to prevent that runner from third coming in when we had 3 chances with our best hitters to bring that same run in from second was ridiculous. Vlad hit a bomb in the bottom half and we lost by 2. 2 intentional walks. Did Charlie put the team in best position to win?

 

We're not talking about a season's worth of instances. We're talking last week. There are plenty of questionable decisions earlier in the season. Bunting issues, player decisions. Is Charlie putting the team in the best position to win.

 

There's no reliable way measure a manager's impact, so we just assume it doesn't matter? No matter how many examples there are that his decisions go against modern game theory that suggest an alternative decision gives you a greater probability to prevent or score runs? These situations are starting to add up.

Edited May 31, 2021 by saskjayfan

[BigCecil]

Key events

 

1. Espinal made a key error

2. Matz lost it after 5 dynamite innings

3. Chatwood had nothing and f'd up the rest of the 6th.

4. Chatwood began the 7th and walked 2.

5. Chatwood was left in too long and walked 2 more.

6. Castro gave up a hard line drive deep enough to score the run.

 

Number 5 is what people are going crazy about, my point is that everyone is acting like that was the game... it wasn't. It was 15% of the game or something.

 

And that is why the Manager actually doesn't have as much effect on the game as this board thinks. The 15 most idiotic crappy things Charlie does over 162, are each 15% of a game, and add up to 2 games over the season.

 

I get that you like to be a contrarian on the board. But this is mission impossible. It doesn't make sense.

 

Charlie's one job is to play the chess pieces he has to create the best probability of W.

 

#5 makes anyones point who thinks Charlie acted egregiously leaving someone in who has repeatedly lost the zone, while not having Castro hot, at a minimum. If a pitcher cannot locate a strike repeatedly its just not wise to leave him in when you have alternatives, and an off day the next.

 

Our team today is literally a league laughing stock after lasts nights debacle.

[Laika]

I get that you like to be a contrarian on the board. But this is mission impossible. It doesn't make sense.

 

Charlie's one job is to play the chess pieces he has to create the best probability of W.

 

#5 makes anyones point who thinks Charlie acted egregiously leaving someone in who has repeatedly lost the zone, while not having Castro hot, at a minimum. If a pitcher cannot locate a strike repeatedly its just not wise to leave him in when you have alternatives, and an off day the next.

 

Our team today is literally a league laughing stock after lasts nights debacle.

 

It's as bad and inexcusable as Will Craig's error.

 

Charlie's answer on video made me burst out laughing. ]

 

"we won 2 of 3 and then 2 of 3. you can't do any better than that"

 

lol how about 3 of 3, Chuck

[Olerud363]

Chatwood looked like hot f***ing garbage in the 6th, and Montoyo didn't even consider having someone warmed up in case he continued to look like hot f***ing garbage in the 7th. This is after he did the exact same f***ing thing with the exact same f***ing pitcher several games ago. And after he's made key managerial decisions the DIRECTLY lead to runs being scored against the Jays (or runs not being scored BY the Jays) costing several additional losses.

 

The impact of managers, as a whole, statistically, is not great. We're talking about one specific manger repeatedly making decisions to the detriment of his team. I mean, if he just decided to use Vladdy as a pinch runner exclusively for the rest of the season, would you still be saying "his decisions aren't having much effect on the games..."?

 

If he used a 6-8 WAR player (like 2021 Vladdy appears to be) as a pinch hitter he'd reduce team WAR by about 80% of 6-8, as he'd reduce Vladdy's at bats by 80%. That would be an obvious 5-6 WAR reduction. It would reduce team runs by 50 or something.

 

Choosing one crappy reliever over another isn't anywhere close to that kind of decision. He's actually reducing team WAR by almost nothing because none of these reliever will have much of a difference between them in the end. He's not really changing the run differential.

 

It comes down to whether managers can out-perform the run differential. Which I don't think there is evidence that they can.

 

Point in case Gibby. In 2015 he was horrible in 1 run games and vastly underperformed the run differential. His performance until AA went berzerk was similar to Charlie's this year... he had better relievers for the first 4 months, and a bullpen of insanity the last 2... still 13-28 in 1 run games, and 10 game under-performance in pythagoran.

 

And Gibby is a good manager, but luck was against him that year..

[Stangstag]

If he used a 6-8 WAR player (like 2021 Vladdy appears to be) as a pinch hitter he'd reduce team WAR by about 80% of 6-8, as he'd reduce Vladdy's at bats by 80%. That would be an obvious 5-6 WAR reduction. It would reduce team runs by 50 or something.

 

Choosing one crappy reliever over another isn't anywhere close to that kind of decision. He's actually reducing team WAR by almost nothing because none of these reliever will have much of a difference between them in the end. He's not really changing the run differential.

 

It comes down to whether managers can out-perform the run differential. Which I don't think there is evidence that they can.

 

Point in case Gibby. In 2015 he was horrible in 1 run games and vastly underperformed the run differential. His performance until AA went berzerk was similar to Charlie's this year... he had better relievers for the first 4 months, and a bullpen of insanity the last 2... still 13-28 in 1 run games, and 10 game under-performance in pythagoran.

 

And Gibby is a good manager, but luck was against him that year..

 

Just stop

[jimedmonds]

What moves would you have made? Are you suggesting they should of released Chatwood?

 

Are you suggesting as of yesterday he should of been already moved out of the top 3 arms?

 

In retrospect the right move would of been to remove Chatwood after two walks in the 7th. Even at that point most of the damage had been done. Leaving him in for an extra batter didn't "lose" a game. It lost 15% of a game or something.

 

According to Blue Jays message board, there are mythical teams that are medium talent, with bad bullpens, that go 30-18 in 1 run games because of savy managing.

 

It doesn't matter that this doesn't exist. It makes Blue Jays Message Board happy to pretend it does. A different manager, would lose different games, in different extruciating ways with this horrible bullpen, but the end result wouldn't be much different.

 

damn, say what you want about him as an MLB manager, but who here can say that you wouldn't want this guy as your boss? He's got your back through and through, even when you screw up colossally and takes all of the flak from everyone. If Montoyo were my boss, I'd be loyal to him to the end and know that I could do no evil. If I were Montoyo's boss, I'd fire his ass in a second.

[Olerud363]

Just stop

 

lol. This board has lost it's collective mind.

 

Answer me this. If Charlie is such a huge problem why isn't he fired? There are two possibilities

 

a) the front office believes Charlie isn't costing them any games

the front office believes Charlie's decisions might cost them a couple of games a year, but aren't concerned about this yet, as they are happy with other aspects of his job.

c) the front office believes Charlie is costing the team 5 or more games a year but don't care.

 

The math says he's costing them a couple games a year. If the math is wrong and c) is true the front office is incompetent.

 

You guys are implying the front office is fine tossing away 5-10 games a year? That is insane.

[jimedmonds]

lol. This board has lost it's collective mind.

 

Answer me this. If Charlie is such a huge problem why isn't he fired? There are two possibilities

 

a) the front office believes Charlie isn't costing them any games

the front office believes Charlie's decisions might cost them a couple of games a year, but aren't concerned about this yet, as they are happy with other aspects of his job.

c) the front office believes Charlie is costing the team 5 or more games a year but don't care.

 

The math says he's costing them a couple games a year. If the math is wrong and c) is true the front office is incompetent.

 

You guys are implying the front office is fine tossing away 5-10 games a year? That is insane.

 

I think it's because they believe that Montoyo's intangibles in developing players and driving clubhouse cohesion outweighs the number of games that he's throwing away each season due to sheer strategic blunder. The latter is visible and probably quantifiable - at this rate, I'd peg it at 8-10 games given what we've seen so far. The former is neither measurable nor falsifiable, so I'll retain the belief that Semien, Guerrero, and Hernandez wouldn't be WARing what they are with a fat white dude like Gibbons in charge who also had better in-game decision making.

[Olerud363]

damn, say what you want about him as an MLB manager, but who here can say that you wouldn't want this guy as your boss? He's got your back through and through, even when you screw up colossally and takes all of the flak from everyone. If Montoyo were my boss, I'd be loyal to him to the end and know that I could do no evil. If I were Montoyo's boss, I'd fire his ass in a second.

 

Why isn't Shapiro and/or Atkins firing him? They are smart guys. They just want to throw away 5 wins a year?

 

If they don't care about wins yet, why the Springer signing? Why pay 150 million for what (optimistically) would amount to 4 wins a year, but throw away that many by refusing to fire Charilie.

 

Don't stop at Charlie, fire Shapiro and Atkins if you believe this s***. If I was Rogers I'd be pissed at paying 150 million for 4 wins, when I could of got it just by firing Charlie.

[Stangstag]

Why isn't Shapiro and/or Atkins firing him? They are smart guys. They just want to throw away 5 wins a year?

 

If they don't care about wins yet, why the Springer signing? Why pay 150 million for what (optimistically) would amount to 4 wins a year, but throw away that many by refusing to fire Charilie.

 

Don't stop at Charlie, fire Shapiro and Atkins if you believe this s***. If I was Rogers I'd be pissed at paying 150 million for 4 wins, when I could of got it just by firing Charlie.

 

I firmly believe they’ll fire him in the offseason. Its gotten too bad to ignore any longer.

[saskjayfan]

lol. This board has lost it's collective mind.

 

Answer me this. If Charlie is such a huge problem why isn't he fired? There are two possibilities

 

a) the front office believes Charlie isn't costing them any games

the front office believes Charlie's decisions might cost them a couple of games a year, but aren't concerned about this yet, as they are happy with other aspects of his job.

c) the front office believes Charlie is costing the team 5 or more games a year but don't care.

 

The math says he's costing them a couple games a year. If the math is wrong and c) is true the front office is incompetent.

 

You guys are implying the front office is fine tossing away 5-10 games a year? That is insane.

 

What math are you talking about? There is no exact math. The one true mystery in baseball. Evaluating a manager. Would the blue jays record be 1, 2, 3, 4 games better with a different manager at this point? Who knows? What's the baseline?

 

Many players are having good seasons. Maybe some of this is attributable to charlie and his staff. The positive not being thrown into the equation. Charlie isn't going anywhere. If I was Atkins, I would have a conversation with the staff discussing these key situations. There's almost irrefutable math that says walking 2 guys in extras like Montoyo did and bringing in Bergen instead of Romano were the wrong decisions. These mistakes can not continue to happen. I'm fine with mistakes. Everyone makes them. Maybe the reason some of the players are doing so well is on the coaching staff and this offsets some of these in game mistakes. If we clean up these in game mistakes we go from a neutral weight situation to a positive situation with our staff.

 

We just need some self evaluation and we have to stop making the preventable mistakes. Learn and move on already.

[jimedmonds]

What math are you talking about? There is no exact math. The one true mystery in baseball. Evaluating a manager. Would the blue jays record be 1, 2, 3, 4 games better with a different manager at this point? Who knows? What's the baseline?

 

Many players are having good seasons. Maybe some of this is attributable to charlie and his staff. The positive not being thrown into the equation. Charlie isn't going anywhere. If I was Atkins, I would have a conversation with the staff discussing these key situations. There's almost irrefutable math that says walking 2 guys in extras like Montoyo did and bringing in Bergen instead of Romano were the wrong decisions. These mistakes can not continue to happen. I'm fine with mistakes. Everyone makes them. Maybe the reason some of the players are doing so well is on the coaching staff and this offsets some of these in game mistakes. If we clean up these in game mistakes we go from a neutral weight situation to a positive situation with our staff.

 

We just need some self evaluation and we have to stop making the preventable mistakes. Learn and move on already.

 

This. It's like that pornography quote - "I don't know how to define incompetence, but I know it when I see it."

[Olerud363]

What math are you talking about? There is no exact math. The one true mystery in baseball. Evaluating a manager. Would the blue jays record be 1, 2, 3, 4 games better with a different manager at this point? Who knows? What's the baseline?

 

We are 1/3 of the way through the season. If Charlie has changed the win total by 1,2,3, or 4 games at this point it would amount to 3,6,9 or 12 games over a season. Is there any evidence that is true?

 

We can never get an exact answer. However there are some things you can do

 

1. Look at win probabalities in games and note how Charlie's moves change the win probabilities.

2. Look at WAR and evaluate how Charlie's playing time decision are changing team WAR.

3. Look at Shapiro and Atkins actions, they have better information then we do, and have a team of analysists assigned to answer this question. Are they acting like Charlie is costing the team many wins?

[wilko]

http://t3.gstatic.com/licensed-image?q=tbn:ANd9GcSqDCXYjAGzUiiqqChae5WMz3tosLKSyjy9ooLkJBSnC5qZ_cepHiPLS0UDCeq_

[Laika]

lol. This board has lost it's collective mind.

 

Answer me this. If Charlie is such a huge problem why isn't he fired? There are two possibilities

 

a) the front office believes Charlie isn't costing them any games

the front office believes Charlie's decisions might cost them a couple of games a year, but aren't concerned about this yet, as they are happy with other aspects of his job.

c) the front office believes Charlie is costing the team 5 or more games a year but don't care.

 

The math says he's costing them a couple games a year. If the math is wrong and c) is true the front office is incompetent.

 

You guys are implying the front office is fine tossing away 5-10 games a year? That is insane.

 

It's clearly

 

We know from how Shapiro talks about his organizations that he is not a micro-manager. He gives people beneath him the discretion to do their jobs and develop on their own. The only real question at this point is is the organization doing ANYTHING to try to help Charlie Montoyo develop into a better tactical manager?

 

A few years ago the Rays took a f***ing huge nerd from their front office, Jonathan Poindexter or something like that, and literally put him on the bench in uniform, calling him a "process and analytics coach". Again, the Rays are ten years ahead of everyone else. Toronto needs to but a front office spy in uniform. Take some 25 year old nerd from Waterloo math who can barely throw a baseball and put him on the bench so he can tug on Charlie Montoyo's delicate little strings.

[Anybody but Charlie]

Key events

 

1. Espinal made a key error

2. Matz lost it after 5 dynamite innings

3. Chatwood had nothing and f'd up the rest of the 6th.

4. Chatwood began the 7th and walked 2.

5. Chatwood was left in too long and walked 2 more.

6. Castro gave up a hard line drive deep enough to score the run.

 

Number 5 is what people are going crazy about, my point is that everyone is acting like that was the game... it wasn't. It was 15% of the game or something.

 

And that is why the Manager actually doesn't have as much effect on the game as this board thinks. The 15 most idiotic crappy things Charlie does over 162, are each 15% of a game, and add up to 2 games over the season.

 

You are absolutely delusional. I cannot fathom still having to debate why he's a terrible manager who is costing us wins. Like there is still some buffoon out there defending this guy. Very sad man. Very sad.

 

Get help

[BCZ]

I knew this thread would be off the rails after that s*** show on Sunday and the past week.

[BCZ]

That idea that a manager is only capable of winnning/losing a 2-3 games year clearly wasn't considering Montoyo.

[Brownie19]

It's clearly

 

We know from how Shapiro talks about his organizations that he is not a micro-manager. He gives people beneath him the discretion to do their jobs and develop on their own. The only real question at this point is is the organization doing ANYTHING to try to help Charlie Montoyo develop into a better tactical manager?

 

A few years ago the Rays took a f***ing huge nerd from their front office, Jonathan Poindexter or something like that, and literally put him on the bench in uniform, calling him a "process and analytics coach". Again, the Rays are ten years ahead of everyone else. Toronto needs to but a front office spy in uniform. Take some 25 year old nerd from Waterloo math who can barely throw a baseball and put him on the bench so he can tug on Charlie Montoyo's delicate little strings.

 

That's the element we certainly don't know. Is the FO actively working with Charlie to improve his in-game decisions? Do they think he's improving and showing a willingness to change? I certainly hope there are several areas of managing that Charlie (or any manager) is actively working on to improve at all times.

[gruber92]

http://t3.gstatic.com/licensed-image?q=tbn:ANd9GcSqDCXYjAGzUiiqqChae5WMz3tosLKSyjy9ooLkJBSnC5qZ_cepHiPLS0UDCeq_

 

Lol

[BigCecil]

It's as bad and inexcusable as Will Craig's error.

 

Charlie's answer on video made me burst out laughing. ]

 

"we won 2 of 3 and then 2 of 3. you can't do any better than that"

 

lol how about 3 of 3, Chuck

 

That answer makes my head explode.

 

We just lost 6 in a row. Our competition has won 15/16.

 

It cant be just good enough Buntoyo. We need to have some sweeps to offset above.

 

We cant put all our eggs in a basket that we will play .800 ball against the O's and DET, as the NYY just experienced.

[G-Snarls]

http://t3.gstatic.com/licensed-image?q=tbn:ANd9GcSqDCXYjAGzUiiqqChae5WMz3tosLKSyjy9ooLkJBSnC5qZ_cepHiPLS0UDCeq_

 

He has such a derpy derp face

 

I'm glad he has the mask on most of the time or I think I'd be even more annoyed with him

[G-Snarls]

It cant be just good enough Buntoyo. We need to have some sweeps to offset above.

 

We cant put all our eggs in a basket that we will play .800 ball against the O's and DET, as the NYY just experienced.

 

And not when the Rays go on a 14-1 run it whatever run they're on something like that

[glory]

Montoyo does things that I don't think any other manager in baseball would do (bunting with 2 strikes in extra innings with runners on 1st/2nd no out, Chatwood debacle, etc). He's not a typical bad/average manager. Even John Farrell, Carlos Tosca, etc, weren't doing stupid s*** like Buntoyo does. "Managers don't make that much difference" doesn't apply to Charlie. He's on another level of terrible.

[Buster]

Montoyo does things that I don't think any other manager in baseball would do (bunting with 2 strikes in extra innings with runners on 1st/2nd no out, Chatwood debacle, etc). He's not a typical bad/average manager. Even John Farrell, Carlos Tosca, etc, weren't doing stupid s*** like Buntoyo does. "Managers don't make that much difference" doesn't apply to Charlie. He's on another level of terrible.

 

I think we now know that Managers might not get you extra wins, but they certainly can get you extra losses.