Fire Charlie Montoyo - The thread worked guys!

[Daniel Labude]

We are 1/3 of the way through the season. If Charlie has changed the win total by 1,2,3, or 4 games at this point it would amount to 3,6,9 or 12 games over a season. Is there any evidence that is true?

 

We can never get an exact answer. However there are some things you can do

 

1. Look at win probabalities in games and note how Charlie's moves change the win probabilities.

2. Look at WAR and evaluate how Charlie's playing time decision are changing team WAR.

3. Look at Shapiro and Atkins actions, they have better information then we do, and have a team of analysists assigned to answer this question. Are they acting like Charlie is costing the team many wins?

 

#3 is the biggest farce ever concocted to use as a reason to not have issues with the managing, which has been horrendous to say the least. It has statistically cost the team multiple wins this week based on #1 alone. #2 you only do again if you want a weak non reality based argument to support Montoyo. In reality though there haven't been many decisions playing time wise that would be put on him...is Panik going to start at SS for Bo because he moonwalked on a homerun, no. If we had a healthy Springer to start the year, yeah that might be a little evident on playing time decisions, but for the most part it sorted itself out in the OF and for the most part DH. You, me, even Spanky could make these decisions and they would be the same. What is most impacted by a manager is his bullpen decisions and usage. Montoyo has been one of the worst possible in this category, especially after we lost 3 or 4 RPs. Sucks to be put in that position because of injuries, but he has failed enormously making these decisions this month. Cost the team 3-4 wins in basically 2 weeks. We shouldn't be looking at it if manager X would would have won those games, but rather would any manager have made better choices at key moments particularly with the bullpen. Would a different manager use Romano more wisely for save situations in the absence of anyone else currently that can do it? Would a different manager not throw Chatwood to the wolves with no command to prove a point and lose a game? Would a different manager not use Dolis to get a save when Romano is twirling his thumbs ready to go? Would another manager try Chatwood? Would another manager try bunting st the failed rate and failed execution that Monotyo has done resulting in a loss at least?

 

Montoyo needs to go and you try and get someone who you think will make better choices

[G-Snarls]

I think we now know that Managers might not get you extra wins, but they certainly can get you extra losses.

 

Which means essentially the same thing.........

 

They can have a modest impact on your W-L record.

 

If you're crusing to 1st or last place well....

 

But in a tight division race or the post seaon, every win matters

Edited May 31, 2021 by G-Snarls

[Virgil_Hiltz]

It's clearly

 

We know from how Shapiro talks about his organizations that he is not a micro-manager. He gives people beneath him the discretion to do their jobs and develop on their own. The only real question at this point is is the organization doing ANYTHING to try to help Charlie Montoyo develop into a better tactical manager?

 

A few years ago the Rays took a f***ing huge nerd from their front office, Jonathan Poindexter or something like that, and literally put him on the bench in uniform, calling him a "process and analytics coach". Again, the Rays are ten years ahead of everyone else. Toronto needs to but a front office spy in uniform. Take some 25 year old nerd from Waterloo math who can barely throw a baseball and put him on the bench so he can tug on Charlie Montoyo's delicate little strings.

 

That nerd from UW Math would be my wife! ..LOL

[Buster]

Which means essentially the same thing.........

 

They can have a modest impact on your W-L record.

 

If you're crusing to 1st or last place well....

 

But in a tight division race or the post seaon, every win matters

 

I meant on average. An average manager might only earn you a couple of wins a year. But you can have a manager that is significantly below average that costs you far more relative to the average than a good manager earns you.

[G-Snarls]

I meant on average. An average manager might only earn you a couple of wins a year. But you can have a manager that is significantly below average that costs you far more relative to the average than a good manager earns you.

 

I see what you mean.

 

It's probably easier for them to "blow" a game with a terrible decision than to "win" a game with a brilliant one.

 

It's mostly on the players anyway of course

[Buster]

I see what you mean.

 

It's probably easier for them to "blow" a game with a terrible decision than to "win" a game with a brilliant one.

 

It's mostly on the players anyway of course

 

just a guess, but I think the best manager in baseball would outperform montoyo with this team by more like 4-6 wins this season (2 wins greater than average, and 2-4 wins more than montoyo). That's what...a $25 million player worth of wins?

[wamco]

Just stop

 

I concur. Olerud, big fan. Probably the best poster here. You gotta give this one up

[Stangstag]

Just think back to how Buck Showalter brought in Ubaldo Jiminez in the 11th inning of the wildcard game instead of THE BEST RELIEF PITCHER IN BASEBALL.

 

Did he lose the game? No, the players did. But he did put his team in a SIGNIFICANTLY worse situation vs going with Britton.

 

We have witnessed Charlie put the team in a significantly worse situation vs the average manager probably 4-5 times IN ONE WEEK. Imagine how much these mistakes will be magnified if this team makes the playoffs again. Imagine being on the Orioles side of that wildcard game, because that definitely could be us this year.

 

He HAS to go.

[Stangstag]

There's no f***ing doubt in my mind Charlie would consider leaving Romano/Merryweather/Dolis/whoever (a strong arm) sitting in the bullpen if we're playing the wildcard game on the road and the game is tied. "Gotta have someone ready to close out the game if we take the lead!"

[G-Snarls]

There's no f***ing doubt in my mind Charlie would consider leaving Romano/Merryweather/Dolis/whoever (a strong arm) sitting in the bullpen if we're playing the wildcard game on the road and the game is tied. "Gotta have someone ready to close out the game if we take the lead!"

 

Even Buck Showalter did that a few years back

 

(Thankfully...)

[Stangstag]

Even Buck Showalter did that a few years back

 

(Thankfully...)

 

Yeah exactly, that’s my point. I do not want the bluejays to lose the wildcard game this year in Orioles fashion because Charlie is an idiot.

[Krylian]

Here's the real question...

 

How many pages will this thread be when it happens?

[Stangstag]

Here's the real question...

 

How many pages will this thread be when it happens?

 

At least 100 pages

[saskjayfan]

Here's the real question...

 

How many pages will this thread be when it happens?

 

Won't happen till the offseason if it does happen. I'm hoping we go on a run and there aren't any posts in this thread for 3 weeks!

[Olerud363]

I think it's because they believe that Montoyo's intangibles in developing players and driving clubhouse cohesion outweighs the number of games that he's throwing away each season due to sheer strategic blunder. The latter is visible and probably quantifiable - at this rate, I'd peg it at 8-10 games given what we've seen so far. The former is neither measurable nor falsifiable, so I'll retain the belief that Semien, Guerrero, and Hernandez wouldn't be WARing what they are with a fat white dude like Gibbons in charge who also had better in-game decision making.

 

This is insane. 8-10 wins is a 50 million dollar player. It's Mike Trout. If this was true all of them should be fired.

 

This team will end up with 80 something wins. To throw away 8-10 is throwing away a playoff spot. There is zero chance this front office is just throwing away 8-10 wins.

 

They've looked at every move Charlie has made and they know it's not costing much.

[Olerud363]

It's clearly

 

We know from how Shapiro talks about his organizations that he is not a micro-manager. He gives people beneath him the discretion to do their jobs and develop on their own. The only real question at this point is is the organization doing ANYTHING to try to help Charlie Montoyo develop into a better tactical manager?

 

A few years ago the Rays took a f***ing huge nerd from their front office, Jonathan Poindexter or something like that, and literally put him on the bench in uniform, calling him a "process and analytics coach". Again, the Rays are ten years ahead of everyone else. Toronto needs to but a front office spy in uniform. Take some 25 year old nerd from Waterloo math who can barely throw a baseball and put him on the bench so he can tug on Charlie Montoyo's delicate little strings.

 

The problem with the Waterloo Math nerd is that this person will know the true percentages and won't be a great convincer. "Charlie, don't bunt, if you hit away we have a 52.5% chance of winning and if you bunt it's only 51.8%".

 

Charlie "I like those odds".

 

You need one of the fine posters on this board to do the job. "For GOD'S sake Charlie, don't f***ing bunt! If you do we will lose, you will blow the game and the season and get your f***ing self fired and probably I'll get fired too. For all that is good on earth, you moron DO NOT BUNT. You're costing us 5 games a week!!!!"

 

Charlie "That guy is loud, but he might have a point"

[saskjayfan]

This is insane. 8-10 wins is a 50 million dollar player. It's Mike Trout. If this was true all of them should be fired.

 

This team will end up with 80 something wins. To throw away 8-10 is throwing away a playoff spot. There is zero chance this front office is just throwing away 8-10 wins.

 

They've looked at every move Charlie has made and they know it's not costing much.

 

It's extremely tough to remove a coach mid season. You have no idea what Shatkins is thinking. Maybe they do have come concerns.

[Olerud363]

It's extremely tough to remove a coach mid season. You have no idea what Shatkins is thinking. Maybe they do have come concerns.

 

Managers are removed mid season every year. It happened to the Jays twice already.

 

1. Jimy Williams removed May 1989 - Cito Gaston Hired

2. John Gibbons removed June 2008 - Cito Gaston Hired

 

You are saying that Jimy Williams and Gibby, by all accounts half decent managers were removed mid season but Charlie, a historically bad manager costing a team 10 wins a year, can't be?

[Olerud363]

Buck Martinez and Carlos Tosca were also removed mid season

 

It's happened 4 times in Blue Jays history

[Olerud363]

The Board needs to contact the Jays organization

 

Dear Mr. Shapiro and Mr. Atkins

 

Our message board has shown that Charlie Montoya is costing the Jays 10 games a year. Given 110 games left this season he will cost them 7-8 more games. It has been a tough 2 years, and we are hoping to see the Blue Jays back in Toronto in late August, God, Justin, and Doug Ford willing. Wouldn't it be great for the city to have a wild card race and potential playoffs? An additional 7 wins is likely the difference between 83 win also-rans, and 90 win wild card winners.

 

Firing Charlie is not only the right thing for the fans, but would be a great financial move, as it could add 10s of millions of dollars in profit for Rogers, given the value of a playoff race and some playoff games.

 

Thank you

 

BJMB

[saskjayfan]

Managers are removed mid season every year. It happened to the Jays twice already.

 

1. Jimy Williams removed May 1989 - Cito Gaston Hired

2. John Gibbons removed June 2008 - Cito Gaston Hired

 

You are saying that Jimy Williams and Gibby, by all accounts half decent managers were removed mid season but Charlie, a historically bad manager costing a team 10 wins a year, can't be?

 

I'm not saying it never happens. I'm saying it's tough to do, especially when you extended him 3 months ago. You don't think Shatkins isn't questioning using Bergen instead of Romano to get one out? You think Shatkins isn't questioning walking 2 guys in the 10th to save 1 run, when you have your best hitters coming up in the bottom of the inning? You don't think Shatkins isn't questioning allowing a reliever to walk 4 straight batters without getting to strike 2 in any of those counts. You don't think Shatkins isn't questioning using Rowdy Tellez to pinch hit with no runners on down by 2 instead of the previous inning with 2 runners on.

 

You are on a crusade to prove that Charlie has not made a single mistake. He has made mistakes. Behind the scenes I'm sure they are discussing and self evaluating in an effort to not ensure these mistakes don't happen moving forward. I'm sure they have their concerns about some of the in game decisions. They likely feel that through productive discourse and reviewing the situations that have occurred that Charlie and the staff will adjust moving forward.

 

I'm not even advocating for Charlie to be fired at the present time. I just want him to be better.

[saskjayfan]

The Board needs to contact the Jays organization

 

Dear Mr. Shapiro and Mr. Atkins

 

Our message board has shown that Charlie Montoya is costing the Jays 10 games a year. Given 110 games left this season he will cost them 7-8 more games. It has been a tough 2 years, and we are hoping to see the Blue Jays back in Toronto in late August, God, Justin, and Doug Ford willing. Wouldn't it be great for the city to have a wild card race and potential playoffs? An additional 7 wins is likely the difference between 83 win also-rans, and 90 win wild card winners.

 

Firing Charlie is not only the right thing for the fans, but would be a great financial move, as it could add 10s of millions of dollars in profit for Rogers, given the value of a playoff race and some playoff games.

 

Thank you

 

BJMB

 

I thought I was the belligerent one on the board..lol It's a good day for a Blue Jays win. Go Jays!

[Laika]

The problem with the Waterloo Math nerd is that this person will know the true percentages and won't be a great convincer. "Charlie, don't bunt, if you hit away we have a 52.5% chance of winning and if you bunt it's only 51.8%".

 

Charlie "I like those odds".

 

You need one of the fine posters on this board to do the job. "For GOD'S sake Charlie, don't f***ing bunt! If you do we will lose, you will blow the game and the season and get your f***ing self fired and probably I'll get fired too. For all that is good on earth, you moron DO NOT BUNT. You're costing us 5 games a week!!!!"

 

Charlie "That guy is loud, but he might have a point"

 

The nice thing about Charlie Montoyo is that he is a dweeb so he has a lot in common with nerds. They will speak the same language. Betas helping Betas.

[Stangstag]

This is insane. 8-10 wins is a 50 million dollar player. It's Mike Trout. If this was true all of them should be fired.

 

This team will end up with 80 something wins. To throw away 8-10 is throwing away a playoff spot. There is zero chance this front office is just throwing away 8-10 wins.

 

They've looked at every move Charlie has made and they know it's not costing much.

 

There’s a very real possibility that Shatkins didn’t think Charlie would be THIS BAD. Its extremely evident now that we are trying to compete for a playoff spot in a full regular season.

 

I’m almost positive they are re-evaluating their stance on Charlie and are making serious considerations as to whether they fire him or not in the offseason.

 

I’m 100% positive Charlie will throw away another 5 wins before the end of the season in similar fashion to what we saw this past week.

 

There’s a real chance he’s fired after the season.

[RobinThicc]

Charlie will never be the manager of a championship team.

 

Guy is in over his head.

[TheHurl]

Here's the real question...

 

How many pages will this thread be when it happens?

 

by 2024? I'll go with 400.

[Dick_Pole]

This is what happens when you have an overtaxed bullpen and a shaky starting staff. Pages and pages of whining about the manager when any number of decisions could have been made in that final Cleveland game. Relieve Matz after a clean 5th. Then if the BP s*** the bed in the 6th, there would be bitching he took him out to soon. This board was fapping over Chatwood and whining about him being replaced by Bergen 72 hours ago. Well now Charlie gave you guys exactly what you wanted and it's still not good enough! Seems that he should be following the advice of the BJMB armchair QBs LESS, not more.

 

Do you want to know what will make Montoyo look good? Manoah being the miracle pitcher who can replace one of the trash guys at the end of the rotation.

[Stangstag]

This is what happens when you have an overtaxed bullpen and a shaky starting staff. Pages and pages of whining about the manager when any number of decisions could have been made in that final Cleveland game. Relieve Matz after a clean 5th. Then if the BP s*** the bed in the 6th, there would be bitching he took him out to soon. This board was fapping over Chatwood and whining about him being replaced by Bergen 72 hours ago. Well now Charlie gave you guys exactly what you wanted and it's still not good enough! Seems that he should be following the advice of the BJMB armchair QBs LESS, not more.

 

Do you want to know what will make Montoyo look good? Manoah being the miracle pitcher who can replace one of the trash guys at the end of the rotation.

 

People that were upset about Chatwood being removed from the Tampa game are stupid.

[saskjayfan]

People that were upset about Chatwood being removed from the Tampa game are stupid.

 

 

Most are mad that Jordon Romano who has reverse splits and is used to high leverage wasn't brought in instead of a rookie with control problems. Lefties have a career .474 OPS against Romano. Seems like a mistake to me, but I've learned coaches never make mistakes. Players just don't get it done. Good thing for Keefe.

[Stangstag]

Most are mad that Jordon Romano who has reverse splits and is used to high leverage wasn't brought in instead of a rookie with control problems. Lefties have a career .474 OPS against Romano. Seems like a mistake to me, but I've learned coaches never make mistakes. Players just don't get it done. Good thing for Keefe.

 

Charlie does the typical R/L matchups in every situation no matter the stats. Hitters and pitchers. He’s dumn