Spring/Summer Training, 2020

[BlueRocky]

 

[FrozenRopes]

It's not faith in any sense of the word. He projects for 2 wins and was a 3 win player as recently as 2017, and his skills have not changed since then.

 

We have projections for every player and, centered around those projections, we can reason our way to upper and lower tier outcomes. Puig is expected to be worth about 2 WAR. It would not be that weird to see 3 WAR because he did it recently while exhibiting the same tools. If you get super optimistic and say, presume he has a good defensive year and figures something tiny out on offense, 4 WAR seems super optimistic but still possible... maybe you give it a 5-10% chance of happening.

 

Alford projects to be BELOW replacement level. Do you know how bad you have to be to get a negative projection? Here are some other players with ZiPS projections around -0.3 WAR:

 

THE Ryan Goins

Richie Martin, coming off a -1.0 WAR year

old friend Mitch Nay

Sicnarf Loopstok (yes this is a real name)

old friend Kendrys Morales

old friend Dioner Navarro, who hasn't played since his -1.8 WAR 2016 but did play in AAA last year and had a nice 69 wRC+

old friend Travis Snider, out of the league since 2015

Danial Palka, who had a 2 wRC+ last year. That's not a typo.

old friend Ezequiel Carrera

 

In order to envision a scenario where he is worth 2 WAR, you basically have to imagine that he has some sort of Freaky Friday thing happen with Byron Buxton. It would be borderline shocking to see Alford get to 1 WAR, but I guess that might be possible if he is used mostly as a defensive replacement and pinch runner? I dunno. The guy can't hit at all. Like, he swings through every type of pitch, even hanging sliders and fastballs.

Alford is the Ryan Goins of Rowdy Tellez'

[Orgfiller]

 

This is what peak athletic performance looks like.

[Spanky99]

This is what peak athletic performance looks like.

 

He got around the bases faster than Bo's trot, this guy has wheels.

[The Iceman]

I think some momentum is starting that Jonathan Davis is our best 4th OF option at camp.

[Captain Adama]

This is what peak athletic performance looks like.

 

That's why my house was shaking earlier.

[Todd]

Still people on here that think Alford should be the forth outfielder. Hell I'd rather

have Cavan Biggio in the outfield and Panik at second base. Taking Alford 40 man roster spot.

[agrushcow]

This is what peak athletic performance looks like.

 

Lol I storied a picture of Kirk with the caption "this is the ideal male body. You may not like it but this is what peak performance looks like" and he watched it. Now I feel like I have to apologize to big sexy.

[Laika]

Still people on here that think Alford should be the forth outfielder. Hell I'd rather

have Cavan Biggio in the outfield and Panik at second base. Taking Alford 40 man roster spot.

 

Todd, we might end up seeing that Biggio + Panik lineup against righties. Good call.

[max silver]

Todd, we might end up seeing that Biggio + Panik lineup against righties. Good call.

 

Joe Panik put up a 3.8 win season in 2015. Applying the same logic as some like to use on here when projecting Puig we can state that Panik has the possibility of putting up a 3+ win season in 2020.

[Captain Adama]

Joe Panik put up a 3.8 win season in 2015. Applying the same logic as some like to use on here when projecting Puig we can state that Panik has the possibility of putting up a 3+ win season in 2020.

 

No, that would not be applying the same logic at all.

 

Firstly, Panik projects to be at least 1 win worse than Puig in 2019, after being 3.6 wins worse than Puig in the last 3 years

Secondly: Panik does only 1.5 things well, he makes contact at an elite rate and has decent plate discipline, unlike Puig who has a whole array of skills to fall back on.

Thirdly, the second point doesn't matter, because Panik has shown a demonstrable decline in power, something that he was only average at best at 4 years ago. So having a good contact rate doesn't mean jack when he has a barrell rate and exit velocity in the bottom 20th percentile in baseball.

Edited March 9, 2020 by Captain Adama

[max silver]

No, that would not be applying the same logic at all.

 

Firstly, Panik projects to be at least 1 win worse than Puig in 2019, after being 3.6 wins worse than Puig in the last 3 years

Secondly: Panik does only 1.5 things well, he makes contact at an elite rate and has decent plate discipline, unlike Puig who has a whole array of skills to fall back on.

Thirdly, the second point doesn't matter, because Panik has shown a demonstrable decline in power, something that he was only average at best at 4 years ago. So having a good contact rate doesn't mean jack when he has a barrell rate and exit velocity in the bottom 20th percentile in baseball.

 

Obviously my post was tongue in cheek, but when you take a look at a huge amount of Puig's numbers you see a guy with eroding baseball skills. He walks less, strikes out more, swings at more pitches off the plate, swings and misses more than ever before, provides no added value on the bases, and might even be below average defensively now to boot. There is absolutely nothing to suggest that he is suddenly going to resurrect his career, he's pretty much the poster child for wasting immense physical talents by not getting the most out of the talent he possesses. His two best seasons he rocked BABIPs of .356 and .383, he hasn't come close to replicating those numbers since, and subsequently never approached the same kind of overall value. It seems apparent that both Panik and Puig have their best days behind them at this point, given that their career best seasons are many years ago. Panik actually has one less year elapsed since his career best season.

[Captain Adama]

Obviously my post was tongue in cheek, but when you take a look at a huge amount of Puig's numbers you see a guy with eroding baseball skills. He walks less, strikes out more, swings at more pitches off the plate, swings and misses more than ever before provides no added value on the bases, and might even be below average defensively now to boot. There is absolutely nothing to suggest that he is suddenly going to resurrect his career, he's pretty much the poster child for wasting immense physical talents by not getting the most out of the talent he possesses. His two best seasons he rocked BABIPs of .356 and .383, he hasn't come close to replicating those numbers since, and subsequently never approached the same kind of overall value. It seems apparent that both Panik and Puig have their best days behind them at this point, given that their career best seasons are many years ago. Panik actually has one less year elapsed since his career best season.

 

All of these bolded points are either not quite true or very wrong. Puig's contact rates and swing rates, both inside and outside the strike zone all around his career averages and there's nothing that indicates those skills are deteriorating. This translates to his K and walk rates very similar to his career averages as well. There's literally nothing concerning regarding his offensive profile with the bat. His baserunning and fielding were not great in recent years, but even then, his UZR rating was only slightly below average.

 

This whole point being, if Puig is available in the neighbourhood of 10 million/year, there's absolutely no reason the Jays shouldn't pick him up.

[max silver]

Check out these numbers and tell me you don't see a distinct downward trend the last 3 years.

 

Let's start with walk rates:

 

2017 11.1

2018 8.1

2019 7.2

 

Now the k-rates:

 

2017 17.5

2018 19.6

2019 21.8

 

How about o-swing%:

 

2017 29.3

2018 31.1

2019 34.2

 

Another noteworthy stat xWOBA:

 

2017 .366

2018 .349

2019 .334

 

You have me on the swinging strike rate, 2019 wasn't his worst year. It held steady at 10.5% for 2017-2018, but jumped quite significantly to 13.6% in 2019 He has had worse seasons in this stat. But the jump in swinging strikes combined with worst since his rookie season tendency to swing at pitches off the plate are definitely noteworthy.

 

If you can look at these numbers and not see a very distinct possibility of a player with declining offensive abilities then we will have to agree to disagree. This player put up a paltry 1.2 WAR with a WRC+ of only 101. His Zips projection thinks that's the kind of bat he has going forward, and gives him a bump to his defense, despite two consecutive sub-par years by UZR. There is a very good chance he's simply not a good player anymore, and if you combine this with the noted character issues Puig isn't a great proposition to add to a team that with a CEO with a slogan on his whiteboard of "no *******s".

Edited March 9, 2020 by max silver

[Laika]

Joe Panik put up a 3.8 win season in 2015. Applying the same logic as some like to use on here when projecting Puig we can state that Panik has the possibility of putting up a 3+ win season in 2020.

 

Max, he does. Not as much of a chance but it's there.

[Laika]

Check out these numbers and tell me you don't see a distinct downward trend the last 3 years.

 

Let's start with walk rates:

 

2017 11.1

2018 8.1

2019 7.2

 

Now the k-rates:

 

2017 17.5

2018 19.6

2019 21.8

 

How about o-swing%:

 

2017 29.3

2018 31.1

2019 34.2

 

Another noteworthy stat xWOBA:

 

2017 .366

2018 .349

2019 .334

 

You have me on the swinging strike rate, 2019 wasn't his worst year. It held steady at 10.5% for 2017-2018, but jumped quite significantly to 13.6% in 2019 He has had worse seasons in this stat. But the jump in swinging strikes combined with worst since his rookie season tendency to swing at pitches off the plate are definitely noteworthy.

 

If you can look at these numbers and not see a very distinct possibility of a player with declining offensive abilities then we will have to agree to disagree. This player put up a paltry 1.2 WAR with a WRC+ of only 101. His Zips projection thinks that's the kind of bat he has going forward, and gives him a bump to his defense, despite two consecutive sub-par years by UZR. There is a very good chance he's simply not a good player anymore, and if you combine this with the noted character issues Puig isn't a great proposition to add to a team that with a CEO with a slogan on his whiteboard of "no *******s".

 

The main problem with this selective sampling is that you started with 2017, which was the best season of Normal Puig. Start with 2015 and there's no trend. Even the numbers from 2017-2019 don't seem significant; players fluctuate like that all the time. Careful.

[max silver]

The main problem with this selective sampling is that you started with 2017, which was the best season of Normal Puig. Start with 2015 and there's no trend. Even the numbers from 2017-2019 don't seem significant; players fluctuate like that all the time. Careful.

 

You can go back to 2015 if you like, but that just changes the argument from declining player to mediocre player instead. Aside from his sensational debut years Puig has only really had one good year, and that was largely due to a huge defensive season that is a huge outlier and very likely never to be reproduced. The bat is nothing special in this guy, and the overall value is nothing to get excited about either. Here are WAR values going back to 2015:

 

2015 1.5

2016 1.0

2017 2.9

2018 1.8

2019 1.2

 

In 3 out of 5 years he has produced less than 2 WAR. This simply isn't a very good player. His projections for 2020 are very generous/optimistic given the long run of mediocrity.

[Laika]

You can go back to 2015 if you like, but that just changes the argument from declining player to mediocre player instead. Aside from his sensational debut years Puig has only really had one good year, and that was largely due to a huge defensive season that is a huge outlier and very likely never to be reproduced. The bat is nothing special in this guy, and the overall value is nothing to get excited about either. Here are WAR values going back to 2015:

 

2015 1.5

2016 1.0

2017 2.9

2018 1.8

2019 1.2

 

In 3 out of 5 years he has produced less than 2 WAR. This simply isn't a very good player. His projections for 2020 are very generous/optimistic given the long run of mediocrity.

 

Everyone knows how to read FanGraphs.

 

If Puig was a really good player he'd already be signed. Or a reliable player.

Edited March 9, 2020 by Laika

[max silver]

Everyone knows how to read FanGraphs.

 

If Puig was a really good player he'd already be signed. Or a reliable player.

 

Given all of the clamoring for signing this guy and proclamations of 4 win upside I'm not so sure everyone on here actually ever looks at Fangraphs. Why in the world do so many posters seem to have a raging boner for the Jays to sign this player? It seems the most common reason is he is better than Anthony Alford, who is likely gone by the end of spring training anyway, if not shortly afterwards.

[Laika]

Given all of the clamoring for signing this guy and proclamations of 4 win upside I'm not so sure everyone on here actually ever looks at Fangraphs. Why in the world do so many posters seem to have a raging boner for the Jays to sign this player? It seems the most common reason is he is better than Anthony Alford, who is likely gone by the end of spring training anyway, if not shortly afterwards.

 

Yasiel Puig is decent, would be a projected upgrade for Toronto, has a chance to be a significant upgrade, is positioned to be a bargain, is perhaps unfairly maligned, and is fun to watch.

 

Should the Blue Jays sign him? Yes.

 

Will the Blue Jays sign him? Almost certainly not.

[Brownie19]

Given all of the clamoring for signing this guy and proclamations of 4 win upside I'm not so sure everyone on here actually ever looks at Fangraphs. Why in the world do so many posters seem to have a raging boner for the Jays to sign this player? It seems the most common reason is he is better than Anthony Alford, who is likely gone by the end of spring training anyway, if not shortly afterwards.

 

man - you need to move on from this.

 

If Alford is cut before the end of Spring Training, than who's the 26th man on this roster. Tellez? J.Davis? insert whoever you want. Than compare that player to Puig. Puig is better. He's probably better than Fisher and Teoscar too. He even projects to be better than Gurriel (if you even out the projected games played), who also seems to get hurt a lot. The reality is we are thin - and not very good in the outfield. Puig is probably what is he - a 1.5 to 2 WAR player. But he's an obvious upgrade over what we have.

[glory]

I think some momentum is starting that Jonathan Davis is our best 4th OF option at camp.

 

I would be fine with that. I'm not expecting him to be a great player or anything, but as a 4th/5th OF, he seems more likely to stick than Alford. Davis has historically hit lhp in the minors, is a very good defensive player, and is fast. Maybe a bootleg RH Jarrod Dyson. Use him in very specific situations and he'll have value.

[Ryu In My House]

I think some momentum is starting that Jonathan Davis is our best 4th OF option at camp.

 

That is my impression, too. It will take a white hot 10-12 ABs for Alford to be considered at this point. f***ing up a couple of routine plays really destroyed his chances. His plus skills lie on that side, and he messed up in the spotlight. Again. Ugh.

[Brownie19]

That is my impression, too. It will take a white hot 10-12 ABs for Alford to be considered at this point. f***ing up a couple of routine plays really destroyed his chances. His plus skills lie on that side, and he messed up in the spotlight. Again. Ugh.

 

Maybe he should go try football again.

[wilko]

Maybe he should go try football again.

 

He's opening up a Subway franchise.

[BlueRocky]

 

Edited March 9, 2020 by BlueRocky

[glory]

4.1 IP, 3 H 0 R, 0 BB, 4 K for Ryu against the Rays today.

[LGBJ29]

Ryu today:

 

4.1 IP, 3H, 0R, 4K, 0BB

Groundouts-Flyouts: 5-2

Fastball sat at 90, mixing the curve in at 71-72

 

[Terminator]

 

If this is the case, then it likely means that Tellez is the DH, Fisher will be the 4th OF and Anthony Alford will head to waivers.

 

That's leads to a really deep lineup, every starter is project to hit 100 wRC+ or better according to Steamer. On the flipside, that is some awful defense.

[glory]

 

If this is the case, then it likely means that Tellez is the DH, Fisher will be the 4th OF and Anthony Alford will head to waivers.

 

That's leads to a really deep lineup, every starter is project to hit 100 wRC+ or better according to Steamer. On the flipside, that is some awful defense.

 

I have a feeling Panik and his vetrin presents will find a way to get nearly everyday AB's, so leaving DH open for that and moving others around regularly is another possibility.