General 2020 Blue Jays Discussion Thread

[saskjayfan]

agree that Manfred is an abomination and this 16 team post-season is a total joke, which if they continue in future seasons would do untold harm to the great sport. BUT, why is the 'save' so bad? Is it the concept or more so the current requirements for what counts as a save?

 

This playoff format is awesome. You're not going to stop watching regardless of what they do to the playoffs next year. We should really go back to the days of 4 playoff teams, when the game had integrity.

[Dokken]

This playoff format is awesome. You're not going to stop watching regardless of what they do to the playoffs next year. We should really go back to the days of 4 playoff teams, when the game had integrity.

 

my preference would be 6 teams in each league make the post-season (division winner and 3 non-division winning teams with best records). The top 2 division winners get a bye while the remainder play the 2020 style best of 3 in 1 location. Then continue from there as in pre-2020 (pre-crazy).

[Spanky99]

The playoff format is here to stay, Manfred said as much, as Hurl points out below the PA should go after the chunk of change from the PS revenue take...

 

This is time for the PA to ask for a huge piece of the playoff pie. Manfred has played his card early saying the owners love this idea (which everyone knew as playoffs make them more money). Tony Clark (or hopefully the person who replaces him) should scrap every other ask and just go for playoff revenue money.

 

 

There's far too much money to be made, not to mention it'll pull casuals into the sport with more teams in contention, is what it is.

[Dokken]

The playoff format is here to stay, Manfred said as much, as Hurl points out below the PA should go after the chunk of change from the PS revenue take...

 

 

 

 

There's far too much money to be made, not to mention it'll pull casuals into the sport with more teams in contention, is what it is.

 

we'll see about the 'money'. cheapening the meaning of getting to post-season baseball may not have the desired effect, because 'casuals' will not get as excited when their home team makes it, since it will become more routine (i.e. may be only a short term boost at best)

[glory]

This has gotten me thinking to the future. Is this what we want to see every year? This Jays team, or a future team like it, trying to stave off the Orioles, Mariners or Tigers for the last playoff spot?

 

Totally cheapens the sport. Rob Manfred is the worst thing to happen to baseball since the save statistic.

 

I am of course a fan of the Jays, but it would be a travesty to see this iteration going deep in the playoffs.

 

I agree with the Manfred slander, but I don't think he has much of a choice in this case. Not only is expanded playoffs more financially beneficial for the league, but the regular season in the old format is too long with too many teams out of it for most of the season. MLB has already lost a lot of its national appeal, but they can maintain or even grow their regional base with more teams being in playoff races every year. Don't get me wrong, I prefer the 2019 format (2 WC teams, 3 division winners), but I realize decisions have to be made with younger audiences in mind. You can't sell a "marathon" and a "grind" to Gen Z's. Even the NBA is contemplating doing different things mid season (tournament) because their regular season, which is half as long as MLB's, is considered "too long". MLB's regular season is too long, their games are "too long", and the majority of the league won't be playing meaningful games in the last 2-3 months (old format). They had to make this change.

 

Now, I think they can tweak it a bit so that the higher seeds get more of an advantage (home field in every game seems very light), but the concept itself is probably necessary. I hate to say this because I hate Manfred, but I think all the changes he's done for this season are actually a positive. Seven inning DH's, a DH in the NL, 3 batter minimum, runner on 2nd in extras, etc. I know I'm in the minority here, but 7 inning games are more efficient to watch, 3 batter minimum means a team like the Rays can't spam 80 relievers in 3 innings, I'd rather watch Dom Smith become a star than a pitcher bat, and extra inning games ending in the 10th rather than potentially going to the 20th is refreshing as well.

[Spanky99]

I like todays line-up...

 

1. Cavan Biggio (L) 2B

2. Bo Bichette ® SS

3. Teoscar Hernandez ® RF

4. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. ® LF

5. Randal Grichuk ® DH

6. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. ® 1B

7. Joe Panik (L) 3B

8. Jonathan Davis ® CF

9. Danny Jansen ® C

[Terminator]

They should do it similar to the NFL. Playoffs are still hard to make but doable. Also rewards the top teams with byes.

[saskjayfan]

I like todays line-up...

 

1. Cavan Biggio (L) 2B

2. Bo Bichette ® SS

3. Teoscar Hernandez ® RF

4. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. ® LF

5. Randal Grichuk ® DH

6. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. ® 1B

7. Joe Panik (L) 3B

8. Jonathan Davis ® CF

9. Danny Jansen ® C

 

Looks like a lineup primed to pick up a win.

[connorp]

Walker >> Anderson/Roark is almost thread-worthy

[G-Snarls]

Who goes in what order in a 3 game WC series for us?

 

1. Ryu

2. ?

3. ?

[Stangstag]

Who goes in what order in a 3 game WC series for us?

 

1. Ryu

2. ?

3. ?

 

I think Walker has to be 2. Maybe Ray 3 or a piggyback with Merryweather or something

[bones10]

Who goes in what order in a 3 game WC series for us?

 

1. Ryu

2. ?

3. ?

 

They Absoultely have to do a pen game for at least one game.

 

Pearson for 2

Merryweather for 2

Ray/shoemaker 2

Cole

Bass

Dolis

[glory]

Who goes in what order in a 3 game WC series for us?

 

1. Ryu

2. ?

3. ?

 

The rotation is lined up to be Ryu, Walker, and Shoemaker. That’s my guess for the WC rotation, though multi inning appearances from Pearson and Merryweather are probably a given, along with Ray and Stripling.

[Slade]

Who goes in what order in a 3 game WC series for us?

 

1. Ryu

2. ?

3. ?

 

 

1. Ryu

2. Walker

3. Shoemaker/Merryweather

[Dokken]

Who goes in what order in a 3 game WC series for us?

 

1. Ryu

2. ?

3. ?

 

It does not much matter. The Jays SHOULD not win, and to eventually become a champion, they are better off taking their lumps in a (Mickey Mouse/Rob Manfred) 1st round loss, than fluking out a win and possibly getting the misconception that they are better than they really are. Lots of work to do here to create a true championship team (but anyone with half a brain knew that back in Feb.)!

[TheHurl]

Get into San Diego or LA should suppress the HR's which have been the biggest issues for the pitchers...get past the best of 3 and let Charlie small ball his way to a ship

[Dokken]

Get into San Diego or LA should suppress the HR's which have been the biggest issues for the pitchers...get past the best of 3 and let Charlie small ball his way to a ship

 

I seriously think I would not enjoy it much, because I know this current Jays team (unlike '92, '93, 2015, '85, '87, '91) is not that good (yet). Lots of young talent here that if all goes well (along with some of the right external adds), is a juggernaut in short order, but not 2020.

[Spanky99]

I seriously think I would not enjoy it much, because I know this current Jays team (unlike '92, '93, 2015, '85, '87, '91) is not that good (yet). Lots of young talent here that if all goes well (along with some of the right external adds), is a juggernaut in short order, but not 2020.

 

 

You mean the proper version, where we win!!!

[Deadpool]

It does not much matter. The Jays SHOULD not win, and to eventually become a champion, they are better off taking their lumps in a (Mickey Mouse/Rob Manfred) 1st round loss, than fluking out a win and possibly getting the misconception that they are better than they really are. Lots of work to do here to create a true championship team (but anyone with half a brain knew that back in Feb.)!

 

I'd love it if a team that CLEARLY had no business in the playoffs won the World Series for the next few years if they keep this ridiculous format. Maybe it would make them rethink the plan of the 78-84 Seattle Mariners win it all in 2021.

[glory]

I think you guys are overstating how likely it is that a bad team can win the World Series in this format, especially with the change of no off days between games. This will help a team like the Indians who are the 7th seed but have a good deep rotation so they could easily pitch their way into a long run. A team like the Jays or Marlins aren't going to have a hot streak for 3 weeks.

[Laika]

I think you guys are overstating how likely it is that a bad team can win the World Series in this format, especially with the change of no off days between games. This will help a team like the Indians who are the 7th seed but have a good deep rotation so they could easily pitch their way into a long run. A team like the Jays or Marlins aren't going to have a hot streak for 3 weeks.

 

A team doesn't even have to get THAT hot to win it all. Theoretically, winning 13 of 22 games can bring someone the title.

 

I don't think the no off day change has any type of systematic effect that makes worse teams less likely to win. Certain good teams have thin rotations, too. And certain mediocre teams like the .500 Astros have deep rotations 1-5.

 

The blueprint for a lucky champion is basically the same.

 

1) Ryu needs to be perfect

2) some other SP needs to really step up and overperform

3) the bullpen needs to be solid

4) the bats probably need to win a game themselves every series. just beat up on an SP3 or hit some clutch dingers off an Ace.

[glory]

A team doesn't even have to get THAT hot to win it all. Theoretically, winning 13 of 22 games can bring someone the title.

 

I don't think the no off day change has any type of systematic effect that makes worse teams less likely to win. Certain good teams have thin rotations, too. And certain mediocre teams like the .500 Astros have deep rotations 1-5.

 

The blueprint for a lucky champion is basically the same.

 

1) Ryu needs to be perfect

2) some other SP needs to really step up and overperform

3) the bullpen needs to be solid

4) the bats probably need to win a game themselves every series. just beat up on an SP3 or hit some clutch dingers off an Ace.

 

Ryu can only start 1 game in a 3 game series and 1 game in a 5 game series (unless they start him on short rest, which is asking for trouble). That means Walker and Shoemaker in games 2-3 of the WC series, and Walker-Shoemaker and two of Roark/Anderson/Ray/Stripling in games 2-5 in the ALDS. The Jays are probably facing the Rays in the WC series and if they somehow advance then the winner of the Yankees/Twins in the ALDS. The neutral location might provide some advantage/disadvantage depending on the teams, but I don't think it's enough for a team that lacks rotation depth, has bad defense, and routinely makes stupid mistakes to go through a gauntlet like that.

 

Over a sample size of 10 years with expanded playoffs, will a mediocre team (sub-.500) win the whole thing? Maybe. I just don't think it's as likely as some are predicting, and I think most years a good team (85+ wins) will end up winning it when a great team doesn't.

[Laika]

Ryu can only start 1 game in a 3 game series and 1 game in a 5 game series (unless they start him on short rest, which is asking for trouble). That means Walker and Shoemaker in games 2-3 of the WC series, and Walker-Shoemaker and two of Roark/Anderson/Ray/Stripling in games 2-5 in the ALDS. The Jays are probably facing the Rays in the WC series and if they somehow advance then the winner of the Yankees/Twins in the ALDS. The neutral location might provide some advantage/disadvantage depending on the teams, but I don't think it's enough for a team that lacks rotation depth, has bad defense, and routinely makes stupid mistakes to go through a gauntlet like that.

 

Over a sample size of 10 years with expanded playoffs, will a mediocre team (sub-.500) win the whole thing? Maybe. I just don't think it's as likely as some are predicting, and I think most years a good team (85+ wins) will end up winning it when a great team doesn't.

 

I agree that Toronto's chances are very low this year. They just aren't built for the playoffs. Too much has to go right.

 

BUT!

 

It takes 162 games to properly separate the wheat from the chaff. It's silly to think that a maximum of 22 playoff games can do anywhere close to the same thing.

 

The Reds might be the perfect example this year. A super mediocre team, probably not a playoff team in a normal season, but if they get in this year then their SP 1-3 (Bauer, Castillo, Gray) line up with any other team's and they have a coin flip's chance or better in most series.

[Krylian]

I agree that Toronto's chances are very low this year. They just aren't built for the playoffs. Too much has to go right.

 

BUT!

 

It takes 162 games to properly separate the wheat from the chaff. It's silly to think that a maximum of 22 playoff games can do anywhere close to the same thing.

 

The Reds might be the perfect example this year. A super mediocre team, probably not a playoff team in a normal season, but if they get in this year then their SP 1-3 (Bauer, Castillo, Gray) line up with any other team's and they have a coin flip's chance or better in most series.

 

If the Jays had 3 starters they could rely on, I'd give them a chance in hell too. They have one. No chance.

[Laika]

If the Jays had 3 starters they could rely on, I'd give them a chance in hell too. They have one. No chance.

 

No need to be stupidly absolutist just because they are in a bad stretch. They've already showed this year that they would have a puncher's chance.

Against playoff teams:

 

First series vs TBR: 1-2 with a walk off loss

Second series vs TBR: 1-2 with a one run loss and a two run loss

Third series vs TBR: 2-2 with a walk off loss and a one run loss

First series vs ATL: 1-2 with a walk off loss

First series vs NYY: 2-1

Vs Miami overall: 2-2

Vs Philadelphia overall: 3-3

 

You can't convince me that they would have NO chance against a good opponent. Other than the recent sweep at the hands of the Yankees they've been competitive against every playoff team, generally speaking. Baseball is random enough to give me a modicum of hope. I think they have a 2-3% chance of taking it all!

Edited September 21, 2020 by Laika

[THANOS]

If the Jays had 3 starters they could rely on, I'd give them a chance in hell too. They have one. No chance.

 

Yeah Walker and Shoe are huge drops as 2/3 and Roark/Anderson are AAAA level at this point.

 

Need to upgrade the #2 in the OS with Bauer (just unload the vault) for 1 season and like 40/45M.

 

1) Ryu

2) Bauer

3) Pearson

4) Hatch/Kay/Merryweather/Murphy

5) Stripling

 

Look infinitely better. Then SWR comes up after the ASB and replaces 4 or 5.

[glory]

I agree that Toronto's chances are very low this year. They just aren't built for the playoffs. Too much has to go right.

 

BUT!

 

It takes 162 games to properly separate the wheat from the chaff. It's silly to think that a maximum of 22 playoff games can do anywhere close to the same thing.

 

The Reds might be the perfect example this year. A super mediocre team, probably not a playoff team in a normal season, but if they get in this year then their SP 1-3 (Bauer, Castillo, Gray) line up with any other team's and they have a coin flip's chance or better in most series.

 

Well this season is so short that we can't even take the records of the playoff teams that seriously. The Reds might have been better over 162 games than they've shown in 50+ games. The Marlins almost certainly would have been worse. The Mets probably would have been better. And so on. The AL is likely a fair representation of the good teams and bad teams, with the Jays firmly planted in between.

 

The only thing to do going forward is to build a deeper rotation. That's going to be the way to "fluke" into deeper playoff contention with expanded playoffs. It will be harder to spam relievers with no off days in between games, so starters are going to be very important.

[Krylian]

No need to be stupidly absolutist just because they are in a bad stretch. They've already showed this year that they would have a puncher's chance.

Against playoff teams:

 

First series vs TBR: 1-2 with a walk off loss

Second series vs TBR: 1-2 with a one run loss and a two run loss

Third series vs TBR: 2-2 with a walk off loss and a one run loss

First series vs ATL: 1-2 with a walk off loss

First series vs NYY: 2-1

Vs Miami overall: 2-2

Vs Philadelphia overall: 3-3

 

You can't convince me that they would have NO chance against a good opponent. Other than the recent sweep at the hands of the Yankees they've been competitive against every playoff team, generally speaking. Baseball is random enough to give me a modicum of hope. I think they have a 2-3% chance of taking it all!

 

The only way I think they have a chance is if the bats get hot and the pen performs like it did earlier this season. If they need to rely on their starters keeping them in a low scoring game, I don't see it happening. That said, we've all seen enough playoff series to realize how important pitching is...and I don't trust the Jays starters. So, if you want to play the math game? Ok....sure...they have a chance. Realistically though?

Edited September 21, 2020 by Krylian

[Ex Player]

The only I think they have a chance is if the bats get hot and the pen performs like it did earlier this season. If they need to rely on their starters keeping them in a low scoring game, I don't see it happening. That said, we've all seen enough playoff series to realize how important pitching is...and I don't trust the Jays starters. So, if you want to play the math game? Ok....sure...they have a chance. Realistically though?

I basically said the same previously in this thread. They are still missing a few pieces of the puzzle before they are legitimate WS contenders. I feel we're still 1 to 2 years away (assuming management acquires the right players).

 

But at least they're on the right track

[dineke]

If they're in the playoffs they're a ws contender. Baseball playoffs are basically random i thought everybody knew that already. That's why this format can't continue into the future because there's going to be under .500 team's winning world series if that's the case.