General 2020 Blue Jays Discussion Thread

[Dokken]

I just like Kirk's swing. He reminds me of Dustin Pedroia except he has a 100 pounds on Pedroia....lol

 

I read Dustin Pedroia's autobiography about 5 years ago. I remember in there he said something about a scout for one of the other teams commenting that he had never seen a guy succeed like that 'swinging from his ass' (I believe that was the comment or something along those lines).

[Dick_Pole]

I'm quite pleased with how the Jays trade deadline went. No big splashes (nor did I really expect or want it), but the team addressed a lot of the depth issues. If this is the way Atkins behaves during a half assed contention season, I'm cautiously optimistic about his abilities when the team is going all in during its peak contention phase 2021-2025.

[Dokken]

I'm quite pleased with how the Jays trade deadline went. No big splashes (nor did I really expect or want it), but the team addressed a lot of the depth issues. If this is the way Atkins behaves during a half assed contention season, I'm cautiously optimistic about his abilities when the team is going all in during its peak contention phase 2021-2025.

 

I agree, while there has been a lot of doubt whether Shapiro and Atkins are right for the job in TO (specifically,are they too stuck in 'small market' mode), you have to like what they have done this year from signing Ryu to these solid trade deadline moves without having to give up much in return. The only head scratcher is still Vogelbach. I don't expect him to stick on this roster - no time to let a guy 'get it going'.

[baubau]

Just to clarify that is NEGATIVE 43 wRC+ (in 38 PA).

BUT in his defense, he did have 146 wRC+ in 33 PA in 2018 and 128 wRC+ in 105 PA in 2019, so has proven he can hit at the MLB level. This has been a screwed up season all around, and some guys may be affected more than others , so I would need to see more before writing him off.

 

ETA overall McGuire is 95 wRC+ in 176 PA at MLB level. Pretty good for a #2 catcher

 

We missed the chance to sell high on McGuire this past off-season. Hopefully Texas still wants him for something this offseason.

[Dokken]

We missed the chance to sell high on McGuire this past off-season. Hopefully Texas still wants him for something this offseason.

 

Yeah probably you will be proven correct. I just think it's hard to tell from this clusterf*** of a season what a guy is really all about, and he is only getting 30% of the ABs, so hard to get things going when you don't play much.....

[baubau]

Yeah probably you will be proven correct. I just think it's hard to tell from this clusterf*** of a season what a guy is really all about, and he is only getting 30% of the ABs, so hard to get things going when you don't play much.....

 

I also think it is difficult to develop two catchers in the major leagues at the same time. I don't want to go all O L D - S C H O O L, but most teams tend to have a established catcher / a promising back up or a promising starter / established backup (if I am wrong, someone let me know, I am going off memory here). I think the Jays really didn't know what they had in either, they probably suspected Jansen was better but still with both knocking on the door and the current circumstances they said "f*** it, lets see".

 

It'll be interesting to see how Kirk does now that he's up with the team too. This season certainly isn't boring.

[max silver]

Just to clarify that is NEGATIVE 43 wRC+ (in 38 PA).

BUT in his defense, he did have 146 wRC+ in 33 PA in 2018 and 128 wRC+ in 105 PA in 2019, so has proven he can hit at the MLB level. This has been a screwed up season all around, and some guys may be affected more than others , so I would need to see more before writing him off.

 

ETA overall McGuire is 95 wRC+ in 176 PA at MLB level. Pretty good for a #2 catcher

 

I don't think McGuire has necessarily proven anything at the major league level yet with so few plate appearances. When you start digging deeper into his numbers it becomes readily apparent that his success was somewhat of an unrepeatable mirage as his .woba exceeded his xwoba by a large margin in both of his first few stints with the major league club. There still might be something in there with the bat if he can actually make some solid contact, same for Jansen.

[Brownie19]

I don't think McGuire has necessarily proven anything at the major league level yet with so few plate appearances. When you start digging deeper into his numbers it becomes readily apparent that his success was somewhat of an unrepeatable mirage as his .woba exceeded his xwoba by a large margin in both of his first few stints with the major league club. There still might be something in there with the bat if he can actually make some solid contact, same for Jansen.

 

McGuire's never hit. Very few players hit like s*** in AA and then sudden become average ML hitters.

[Dokken]

I don't think McGuire has necessarily proven anything at the major league level yet with so few plate appearances. When you start digging deeper into his numbers it becomes readily apparent that his success was somewhat of an unrepeatable mirage as his .woba exceeded his xwoba by a large margin in both of his first few stints with the major league club. There still might be something in there with the bat if he can actually make some solid contact, same for Jansen.

 

Well, if you are a total mirage in the minors, even 170+ PAs in MLB will expose you. So he can hit MLB pitching. Maybe his hits were mostly against crappier MLB pitchers, but MLB pitchers nonetheless. I guess you can look at different stats to make an argument. His MLB BABIP is .280, versus an MLB BA of .253. That's reasonable isn't it?

 

His numbers on balls in play are : 21.5% soft / 50.0 % medium / 28.5 % hard. Is that decent?

He seems to spray the ball to all fields (makes him harder to defend?): 38.5% pull / 32.3 % center / 29.2 % oppo

barrel percent is pretty s***** (4.6 %) although Jansen is only 6.2 % so not much different.

 

I agree with BauBau - trade one of these guys this offseason and bring in a vet to work alongside the other. Give Kirk at least 1 more season in the minors (seems obvious since he only has reached A+)

[bulldogsjc]

Which Like More?

[Grant77]

Which Like More?

 

Not a huge fan of either

[Maahfaace]

Which Like More?

 

Barf

[5minutesforframing]

Which Like More?

 

Both awful

[Deadpool]

Which Like More?

 

If I HAD to pick, the one on the right, but I'd rather grow a full-on mullet than wear either of those.

[Ryu In My House]

McGuire's never hit. Very few players hit like s*** in AA and then sudden become average ML hitters.

 

Yeah, he's a good defensive second string catcher. I don't think any FO this off season figured he was the next coming and wanted to trade for him based on that MLB SSS.

[saskjayfan]

If I HAD to pick, the one on the right, but I'd rather grow a full-on mullet than wear either of those.

 

I feel like the one on the right if they just had the image of the Jays logo and the city image on the back half of the hat it might look OK.

[Perfect Game]

Drury and Gavilio dfa'd.

[Laika]

Drury DFA'd party

[glory]

If Drury gets picked up by the injury ravaged Yankees or even the Rays, someone will have to periodically check on Atkins to make sure he's not panicking. The Urshela flashbacks will be strong.

[Deadpool]

Drury DFA'd party

 

Drury is objectively worse, but I just have such a visceral hatred every time I see Panik's name in the lineup card.

[Laika]

Drury is objectively worse, but I just have such a visceral hatred every time I see Panik's name in the lineup card.

 

Panik hit .353/.450/.529 in the last 7 days. Dude is on fire.

[Deadpool]

Panik hit .353/.450/.529 in the last 7 days. Dude is on fire.

 

He's clearly turned a corner and we should re-sign him to a 10 year, $350M deal.

[saskjayfan]

Drury and Gavilio dfa'd.

 

about time. I'm guessing Wag and SRF come off the roster for Ray and Stripling. Would love to cut from Font, but there's some mad love for Font.

[Deadpool]

about time. I'm guessing Wag and SRF come off the roster for Ray and Stripling. Would love to cut from Font, but there's some mad love for Font.

 

Font's numbers are weird. Ks are up, walks are down, hr/fb is down. His FIP is a respectable (and career best) 3.91 and even his xFIP is only 4.27, but the results have been awful. BABIP is an absurd .472.

 

It's a sample size of 11 innings, so most of that data isn't particularly useful beyond some short term trends, but his advanced metrics aren't bad at all this year.

[Grant77]

https://theathletic.com/2035310/2020/08/31/one-eye-on-now-and-one-eye-on-the-future-blue-jays-gm-explains-deadline-moves/?amp#click=https://t.co/RsuegzzqMn

 

Can anyone post this please?

[Ryu In My House]

https://theathletic.com/2035310/2020/08/31/one-eye-on-now-and-one-eye-on-the-future-blue-jays-gm-explains-deadline-moves/?amp#click=https://t.co/RsuegzzqMn

 

Can anyone post this please?

 

Are we allowed to post $$$ content? I have a sub and pay for it. I would be a little cheesed if someone posted what I pay for. That may make me out to be a dick, though. Oh well.

 

FYI, I have signed up for The Athletic three boxing days in a row for 70% off each time. It is worth it.

[max silver]

Font's numbers are weird. Ks are up, walks are down, hr/fb is down. His FIP is a respectable (and career best) 3.91 and even his xFIP is only 4.27, but the results have been awful. BABIP is an absurd .472.

 

It's a sample size of 11 innings, so most of that data isn't particularly useful beyond some short term trends, but his advanced metrics aren't bad at all this year.

 

Statcast page looks pretty ugly for Font though, hit opponents hard hit rate is 47.4%, he has a high opponents launch angle, high barrels allowed etc. so that high BABIP likely isn't a fluke.

[Orgfiller]

Statcast page looks pretty ugly for Font though, hit opponents hard hit rate is 47.4%, he has a high opponents launch angle, high barrels allowed etc. so that high BABIP likely isn't a fluke.

 

I think it's hard to say how much of that is luck vs. talent level though. To use an extreme example, Josh Hader last season was 9th percentile in EV and hard hit%, and 1st percentile in barrel %, he was getting completely crushed when hitters would make contact. Of course the Hader comparison stops there because making contact is nearly impossible against him, but this season he's back to allowing soft contact, but that's resulting in a 4.51 xFIP. So was Hader unlucky last year when hitters made contact, is he getting lucky this year? Font is getting fewer whiffs than last season which is definitely a concern, but he's still getting strikeouts and the stuff looks good. Maybe he's just a hittable gas can who got lucky last year, or maybe he's getting unlucky on good pitches this season? His body of work would suggest it's the former but I don't think we have enough studies into pitcher quality of contact to truly say one way or the other.

[connorp]

Are we allowed to post $$$ content? I have a sub and pay for it. I would be a little cheesed if someone posted what I pay for. That may make me out to be a dick, though. Oh well.

 

FYI, I have signed up for The Athletic three boxing days in a row for 70% off each time. It is worth it.

 

Definitely makes you a dick, yes

[max silver]

I think it's hard to say how much of that is luck vs. talent level though. To use an extreme example, Josh Hader last season was 9th percentile in EV and hard hit%, and 1st percentile in barrel %, he was getting completely crushed when hitters would make contact. Of course the Hader comparison stops there because making contact is nearly impossible against him, but this season he's back to allowing soft contact, but that's resulting in a 4.51 xFIP. So was Hader unlucky last year when hitters made contact, is he getting lucky this year? Font is getting fewer whiffs than last season which is definitely a concern, but he's still getting strikeouts and the stuff looks good. Maybe he's just a hittable gas can who got lucky last year, or maybe he's getting unlucky on good pitches this season? His body of work would suggest it's the former but I don't think we have enough studies into pitcher quality of contact to truly say one way or the other.

 

Whether you want to give Font the benefit of the doubt for not having control over the quality of contact allowed the fact remains that he's getting torched up to this point. He's fine as a low leverage arm but our feckless manager keeps insisting putting our lowest quality relievers into high leverage situations despite having superior options available.