Offseason Roster Thread 2019-2020

[Jimcanuck]

As far as roster construction goes the importance of positional versatility decreases as the quality of the bat increases.

 

Smoak projects to be about 10% better than a league average hitter - you could reasonably do as good as that by platooning versatile players through a 1B/DH position.

 

Edwin projects to be about 27% better than a league average hitter - it still might make sense to go with more versatile bats, depending on how well they can hit, but it's likely that prioritizing positional versatility over someone that good at hitting would mean sacrificing offense.

 

Thinking about signing those two players is not a congruent decision making process

 

Where are you getting the +27% projection for EE in 2020?

[Spanky99]

Where are you getting the +27% projection for EE in 2020?

 

Seeing as EE was 29% better than your average hitter this past season, that's likely a guesstimate, it's going to be somewhere around that, Jim.

[Ray]

The fact that Atkins keeps bringing up the word "reliable" starting pitching makes me think we're definitely going to aim for a guy like Porcello, who's crossed the 160 inning threshold every year of his career. He shouldn't cost too much after the year he's had either.

 

Ben Cherington also has strong ties to him and works for us now, so that probably helps.

[Stangstag]

The fact that Atkins keeps bringing up the word "reliable" starting pitching makes me think we're definitely going to aim for a guy like Porcello, who's crossed the 160 inning threshold every year of his career. He shouldn't cost too much after the year he's had either.

 

Ben Cherington also has strong ties to him and works for us now, so that probably helps.

 

Good points

[saskjayfan]

Where are you getting the +27% projection for EE in 2020?

 

As Josh Donaldson would say....Check out the back of his baseball card.

[saskjayfan]

The fact that Atkins keeps bringing up the word "reliable" starting pitching makes me think we're definitely going to aim for a guy like Porcello, who's crossed the 160 inning threshold every year of his career. He shouldn't cost too much after the year he's had either.

 

Ben Cherington also has strong ties to him and works for us now, so that probably helps.

 

signing Porcello for anything more than a one year deal would make me want to puke.

[Brownie19]

signing Porcello for anything more than a one year deal would make me want to puke.

 

Why is that? How can anyone say something like this without knowing what the AAV would be?

 

Porcello's a proven innings eater who'll be entering his age 32 season. He's pitched in the AL east for awhile now and should give you just over 2 WAR per year - which would put him around the 80th most valuable pitcher in baseball (based on WAR, which yes, I know doesn't value relievers enough).

 

Given how young our rotation is - I don't see any issue with bringing Porcello on board. Will they need to give him 2 or 3 years to get him to Toronto? I'll leave that up to the experts and trust their judgement.

[bendera3]

Why is that? How can anyone say something like this without knowing what the AAV would be?

 

Porcello's a proven innings eater who'll be entering his age 32 season. He's pitched in the AL east for awhile now and should give you just over 2 WAR per year - which would put him around the 80th most valuable pitcher in baseball (based on WAR, which yes, I know doesn't value relievers enough).

 

Given how young our rotation is - I don't see any issue with bringing Porcello on board. Will they need to give him 2 or 3 years to get him to Toronto? I'll leave that up to the experts and trust their judgement.

 

I'd be completely fine with him if we aren't going all in on elite arms. If he bounces back he could get us something at the trading deadline, and I doubt he'll cost an arm and a leg.

[Spanky99]

Or he declines and is out of baseball.

 

Laika's talking about his projected numbers, and I highly doubt that happens, what you're suggesting.

[glory]

Bautista's 2017 projection was like a 3 WAR, if I recall. Players at age 37 in the post PED era aren't easy to project. Nelson Cruz is an exception, but he's also been linked to PED's, so....

[Spanky99]

Porcello had better be a secondary signing to someone far better or the off season would be...

 

[Spanky99]

I think the answer is to go after Dickerson who hits RHP at the same level as Encarnacion.

 

You can just run a Dickerson/Teoscar platoon and probably come out with an Encarnacion level bat but without the risk and lack of versatility.

 

Also, just signed Dickerson please.

 

please.

 

I really hope they sign a couple SP's, Core-Dick can wait in line...

[Jimcanuck]

As Josh Donaldson would say....Check out the back of his baseball card.

 

Ha, smartass. So what will it be, the 1 WAR 2018 version of EE, or the 2.5 WAR 2019 version? Most likely somewhere in between, although EE being another year older, I would lean to the 2018 version.

[Spanky99]

We have the money to sign everyone. Just sign everyone 31 and under who doesn't get a QO.

 

Woohoo!

[Olerud363]

Bautista's 2017 projection was like a 3 WAR, if I recall. Players at age 37 in the post PED era aren't easy to project. Nelson Cruz is an exception, but he's also been linked to PED's, so....

 

I'm not sure what projection system has Edwin at a 127+ OPS either... The only one I could find was zips... which had him declining in 2020 to Rowdy Tellez 2019 level... however they also projected a decline in 2019 which didn't happen... still I'd be surprised if a projection system had Edwin above his career averages at age 37.

[glory]

We have the money to sign everyone. Just sign everyone 31 and under who doesn't get a QO.

 

If the FA market is anything like the last two years, that's not a bad idea. We'd have cheap depth everywhere and some decent 2-3 WAR level starters all without giving up prospects, losing a pick, or hurting financial flexibility.

[Laika]

Steamer ® on Fangraphs is rest of season Steamer. It’s a model of the projection that updates with in season data. At this point it’s, as far as I know, the best thing to look at if you just want to see a decent 2020 projection (rate stats)

[Spanky99]

Steamer ® on Fangraphs is rest of season Steamer. It’s a model of the projection that updates with in season data. At this point it’s, as far as I know, the best thing to look at if you just want to see a decent 2020 projection (rate stats)

 

That's what I assumed you were using, Steamer 600 came out last year on the 2nd of November, we'll have a general idea then. 27% isn't far off what he'll be.

[saskjayfan]

Ha, smartass. So what will it be, the 1 WAR 2018 version of EE, or the 2.5 WAR 2019 version? Most likely somewhere in between, although EE being another year older, I would lean to the 2018 version.

 

I don't really care about WAR as much as you and we were talking about what percentage he would be above league average in hitting. He had a .239 bapip in 2019. You always assume old guys will fall off a cliff, which is ironic because you're old. I think his wrc+ will be in the 125 to 135 range.

[Jimcanuck]

I don't really care about WAR as much as you and we were talking about what percentage he would be above league average in hitting. He had a .239 bapip in 2019. You always assume old guys will fall off a cliff, which is ironic because you're old. I think his wrc+ will be in the 125 to 135 range.

 

Smoak had a .223 babip. Probably a better target. EE makes no sense for the Jays. Realistically he will be 39 before the Jays are contenders again.

[saskjayfan]

Smoak had a .223 babip. Probably a better target. EE makes no sense for the Jays. Realistically he will be 39 before the Jays are contenders again.

 

I never said we should sign EE. I was just responding to what type of player I think he will be. I wouldn't be adverse to signing smoak, but I don't think it will happen either. So 2022 will be our year will it.

[Jimcanuck]

I never said we should sign EE. I was just responding to what type of player I think he will be. I wouldn't be adverse to signing smoak, but I don't think it will happen either. So 2022 will be our year will it.

 

Realistically, around that time. Could be earlier, depends on Pearson, SWR, Manoah types.

[TheHurl]

Take a flyer on Yoshitomo Tsutsugo if they think he can be a 1B

[Jimcanuck]

Take a flyer on Yoshitomo Tsutsugo if they think he can be a 1B

 

I'd be calling up the dummy in NY about Dominic Smith +, for Giles.

[glory]

Yeah I think Dominic Smith would be a good target. Blocked by Alonso, good offensive skill set, and we'd be dealing with Brody again which is a plus.

[BTS]

Realistically, around that time. Could be earlier, depends on Pearson, SWR, Manoah types.

 

I'm a pretty firm believer that no team should rely on pitching prospects. If you think you have the bats now, go out and get a rotation. If more than one of Pearson, Manoah, and SWR pan out, that's a bonus, but we shouldn't count on it because it's probably not going to happen.

[Brownie19]

I'm a pretty firm believer that no team should rely on pitching prospects. If you think you have the bats now, go out and get a rotation. If more than one of Pearson, Manoah, and SWR pan out, that's a bonus, but we shouldn't count on it because it's probably not going to happen.

 

I think the FO agrees with this. They always talk about having 'waves' of talent coming up and that's how you build a sustainable winner. I don't get the impression they are banking on Pearson, Manoah, and SWR to all pan out.

 

The real question is - do we think the positional players are there? I'm not so sure.

[Barkerfan23]

I guess we are going to find out just what this regime is made off arent we

[Jimcanuck]

I'm a pretty firm believer that no team should rely on pitching prospects. If you think you have the bats now, go out and get a rotation. If more than one of Pearson, Manoah, and SWR pan out, that's a bonus, but we shouldn't count on it because it's probably not going to happen.

 

That's fine but it is difficult to build a winner without homegrown prospects. I didn't say all three are needed, but for the BJs to get to the WS again, at least a couple of their pitching prospects need to pan out. Outside of Groshans and Orelvis, who are a ways away, the elite prospects on the farm are pitchers.

[TheHurl]

The real question is - do we think the positional players are there? I'm not so sure.

 

I think this is a key comment (and one of the few Brownie has ever made). If the goal is to get to over 40 team fWAR (Boston and NY Mets were the only teams over 40 last season and did not make the playoffs and Brewers at 37.1 were the lowest playoff team), is the core we currently have assured of at least doubling the 2019 total (11.5 for the offense), just by being together for a full season. Then on top of that you have to find the pitching