Offseason Roster Thread 2019-2020

[Jimcanuck]

The best thing about a 37 year old is that he probably only takes a one year deal. It’s a win win. Upgrade on Tellez, good PR move, short term commitment. Edwin was pretty good this year. Don’t be agist. There is essentially no reason not to do it... although Rogers will find $15M reasons not to do it probably.

 

If the Jays were higher up on the win curve I would totally agree with signing EE. He's exactly the kind of player an emerging contender signs to fill a hole / strengthen the bench.

 

At this point, coming off a 95 loss season, it makes more sense for the Jays to give those at bats to guys like Tellez and other young guys fighting to develop / establish themselves, or a younger FA like Ozuna or Castellanos signed to a multi year deal.

[wamco]

Tellez is nothing

[Laika]

If the Jays were higher up on the win curve I would totally agree with signing EE. He's exactly the kind of player an emerging contender signs to fill a hole / strengthen the bench.

 

At this point, coming off a 95 loss season, it makes more sense for the Jays to give those at bats to guys like Tellez and other young guys fighting to develop / establish themselves, or a younger FA like Ozuna or Castellanos signed to a multi year deal.

 

Could not disagree more.

 

Have a nice weekend, Jim.

[The Cats Ass]

Just sign Cole, Wheeler, and Puig and call it a day.

[Krylian]

Just sign Cole, Wheeler, and Puig and call it a day.

 

(Jays make strong offer to all three)

 

"Thank you very much for the interest in our clients and your generous offers"

 

(Players and agents use these offers as leverage to get a better deal where they really want to go).

 

Rinse. Repeat.

[Laika]

(Jays make strong offer to all three)

 

"Thank you very much for the interest in our clients and your generous offers"

 

(Players and agents use these offers as leverage to get a better deal where they really want to go).

 

Rinse. Repeat.

 

Ensuring that competitors actually have to pay market rates for talent is itself a good reason to bid.

 

Or we can just say that only losers try, and continue to watch teams like New York and Houston kidnap talent like Brantley, DJL, etc.

[Jimcanuck]

Tellez is nothing

 

A 91 wRC+ in his first full season (just 73 AB in 2018) is not too bad at all. I point to his ~18% K rate in MiLB and his 28% K rate so far in MLB and suggest there is certainly the potential for him to go north of a 100 wRC+ in 2020.

 

(It would not surprise me to see 37 yr old EE with a wRC+ south of 100 in 2020)

[glory]

If the Jays were higher up on the win curve I would totally agree with signing EE. He's exactly the kind of player an emerging contender signs to fill a hole / strengthen the bench.

 

At this point, coming off a 95 loss season, it makes more sense for the Jays to give those at bats to guys like Tellez and other young guys fighting to develop / establish themselves, or a younger FA like Ozuna or Castellanos signed to a multi year deal.

 

I don't agree with giving Tellez more at bats, but agree with the rest. Sign Edwin if you think there's a chance to contend in 2020. He's still a good hitter. However, the Jays have a lot of holes, and spending $10-15m (or whatever it would take) to sign a 37 year old DH when you need at least 3 SPs, a CF, a pen, etc, is kind of pointless. If you could fill all of those holes AND sign Edwin, then that's a different story, but even then as you said getting a younger talent on a longer deal (not necessarily Ozuna/Cast) would be more advantageous.

 

A player like Edwin would have worked for the 2016 team that had a chance to contend and needed short term wins wherever they were available. I don't see it as a great fit for the 2020 team. Plus I'd prefer keeping DH open to rotate players around, especially since we don't know what shape Vlad will be in come March.

[Boxcar]

A 91 wRC+ in his first full season (just 73 AB in 2018) is not too bad at all. I point to his ~18% K rate in MiLB and his 28% K rate so far in MLB and suggest there is certainly the potential for him to go north of a 100 wRC+ in 2020.

 

(It would not surprise me to see 37 yr old EE with a wRC+ south of 100 in 2020)

 

Is this post satire or something?

[Jimcanuck]

Is this post satire or something?

 

You don't think Tellez improving at the same time EE falls off a cliff is possible?

 

It's funny, years ago on the old board I predicted EE would have a higher WAR than the Prince Fielder everyone wanted to sign, and was trashed for it. And it happened.

[Laika]

Pointing to Edwin's age as the biggest reason to not acquire him is extremely narrow-minded, and consequently quite stupid.

 

Tellez projected wRC+ is like 95

Edwin's is like 127

 

Projections factor in the aging curve

 

You're looking at a projected 2-2.5 win upgrade, over a replacement level player and arguably the 2020 Blue Jays' worst projected position. And Edwin's age makes the potential acquisition one of the most efficient imaginable (there is essentially zero downside). Also would be a huge PR win for whatever that's worth.

 

Further, any argument like "they should spend on pitching instead" is f***ing stupid. The team has one of the lowest payrolls in baseball - there is zero reason to limit spending to certain portions of the team. Spend all over and upgrade the team in any way possible.

[Jimcanuck]

Pointing to Edwin's age as the biggest reason to not acquire him is extremely narrow-minded, and consequently quite stupid.

 

Tellez projected wRC+ is like 95

Edwin's is like 127

 

Projections factor in the aging curve

 

You're looking at a projected 2-2.5 win upgrade, over a replacement level player and arguably the 2020 Blue Jays' worst projected position. And Edwin's age makes the potential acquisition one of the most efficient imaginable (there is essentially zero downside). Also would be a huge PR win for whatever that's worth.

 

Further, any argument like "they should spend on pitching instead" is f***ing stupid. The team has one of the lowest payrolls in baseball - there is zero reason to limit spending to certain portions of the team. Spend all over and upgrade the team in any way possible.

 

His age is not the biggest reason, though.

[Laika]

You don't think Tellez improving at the same time EE falls off a cliff is possible?

 

It's also possible that TJ Zoinks could improve while [insert any SP target] falls off a cliff. Don't sign anybody!

[Laika]

His age is not the biggest reason, though.

 

Jim, a 91 wRC+ in any season for a 1B/DH is f***ing horrendous. It's a "go to the KBO you plug" level of production.

[Jimcanuck]

I looked up ZIPS 2020 projections on Fangraphs.

 

EE - 0.7 WAR

Rowdy - 0.8 WAR

 

The projections probably haven't been updated in a while, but interesting nonetheless.

[Laika]

I will not rest until Rowdy Tellez is off. the. f***ing. roster.

 

He is a human symbol of all of the wrong (risk-averse, pussy-assed) decisions the FO could make in the future.

 

If he is on the 2020 roster we all might as well abandon the organization with our fandom. It will be a canary in the coal mine moment. One fat, lumbering, replacement level canary.

[jays4life19]

Rowdy Tellez would have to hit like 125 wRC± to be a 2 win player.

[Laika]

I looked up ZIPS 2020 projections on Fangraphs.

 

EE - 0.7 WAR

Rowdy - 0.8 WAR

 

The projections probably haven't been updated in a while, but interesting nonetheless.

 

Those are the mid-point of pre-2019, three year projections (from an outdated projection model that is one of the worst).

 

So they mean less than nothing. It's not just vacuous numbers - those actually represent information of negative value. Referencing them does harm to the discourse.

 

At this point, I will assume that Rowdy's dad is paying you to pump up his tires online or something.

[Jimcanuck]

Those are the mid-point of pre-2019, three year projections (from an outdated projection model that is one of the worst).

 

So they mean less than nothing. It's not just vacuous numbers - those are actually information of negative value.

 

Don't get me wrong, I'm not a fan of big Rowdy. It was a month ago I termed Tellez an AAAA player, and that opinion has not changed.

 

I'm just expecting the current 2.5 WAR gap between EE and Rowdy to narrow somewhat in 2020, possibly a fair bit, to argue signing EE is not such a great idea for a club coming off a 95 loss season.

[Laika]

Don't get me wrong, I'm not a fan of big Rowdy. It was a month ago I termed Tellez an AAAA player, and that opinion has not changed.

 

I'm just expecting the current 2.5 WAR gap between EE and Rowdy to narrow somewhat in 2020, possibly a fair bit, to argue signing EE is not such a great idea for a club coming off a 95 loss season.

 

I mean you think a club coming off a 95 loss season would need to make obvious, clear upgrades but I guess not?

[Jimcanuck]

I mean you think a club coming off a 95 loss season would need to make obvious, clear upgrades but I guess not?

 

Not short term band-aids that will just take playing time away from younger players. Acquire longer term assets, absolutely.

[Laika]

Not short term band-aids that will just take playing time away from younger players. Acquire longer term assets, absolutely.

 

And we're back to being agist.

 

Taking playing time from Rowdy should be completely irrelevant. It's a wide open roster spot. You're basically saying you'd rather punt it than have Edwin there. Asinine.

[Jimcanuck]

And we're back to being agist.

 

Taking playing time from Rowdy should be completely irrelevant. It's a wide open roster spot. You're basically saying you'd rather punt it than have Edwin there. Asinine.

 

There are other players on the roster besides Rowdy, and there are other targets that make more sense for the Jays than EE on the FA market.

 

I don't understand why you are so fixated on EE.

[Laika]

There are other players on the roster besides Rowdy, and there are other targets that make more sense for the Jays than EE on the FA market.

 

I don't understand why you are so fixated on EE.

 

I'm not, he's just a great target

 

A long term commitment to someone like Nick Catellanos could actually be a terrible idea. I could see him being a below average position player

 

There are no viable 1B/DH options on the projected roster aside from Vlad. Just a handful of poorly projected OF or Util types who could cycle through the open position.

[bendera3]

I would be interested to see how the market for Eric Thames, Corey Dickerson, and Yasiel Puig shapes up. Other than maybe Puig I feel like they are both good short term options.

[Boxcar]

You don't think Tellez improving at the same time EE falls off a cliff is possible?

 

It's funny, years ago on the old board I predicted EE would have a higher WAR than the Prince Fielder everyone wanted to sign, and was trashed for it. And it happened.

 

Oh yes, you predicted a career ending back injury. So prescient.

[Boxcar]

I'm not, he's just a great target

 

A long term commitment to someone like Nick Catellanos could actually be a terrible idea. I could see him being a below average position player

 

There are no viable 1B/DH options on the projected roster aside from Vlad. Just a handful of poorly projected OF or Util types who could cycle through the open position.

 

Rendon

[Boxcar]

There are other players on the roster besides Rowdy, and there are other targets that make more sense for the Jays than EE on the FA market.

 

I don't understand why you are so fixated on EE.

 

If you're interested in a young guy who would cost next to nothing to replace Tellez, Taylor Ward would surely be available. Just because Tellez is currently on the team doesn't mean he has to be the default option.

[Jimcanuck]

If you're interested in a young guy who would cost next to nothing to replace Tellez, Taylor Ward would surely be available. Just because Tellez is currently on the team doesn't mean he has to be the default option.

 

Never said that. Read better.

[Spanky99]

A 91 wRC+ in his first full season (just 73 AB in 2018) is not too bad at all. I point to his ~18% K rate in MiLB and his 28% K rate so far in MLB and suggest there is certainly the potential for him to go north of a 100 wRC+ in 2020.

 

(It would not surprise me to see 37 yr old EE with a wRC+ south of 100 in 2020)

 

lol... okay!