Around Baseball 2019

[Jimcanuck]

I don't think it's any of that so much as the fact that you can pay $130 or whatever for MLB.tv and sit on your couch and flip though literally any game on the MLB schedule that interests you an watch it in HD on your 55 inch TV. Fighting traffic, paying $30 for parking and $15 for a beer is pretty unappealing in comparison.

 

Bingo.

 

Have thought it's time to take my kid to the ballgame, but expensive, time and money

[Olerud363]

Anyone think style of play, higher Ks, less steals, bunts, shifts etc has anything to do with it.. Or not a relevant factor?

 

Probably meaningless but my casual friends hate Shapiro -

 

They say things like...

 

"I won't go to a game until Shapiro is gone"

"I bought an Atlanta Braves Jersey"

"Vlad is the only prospect they have and AA drafted him"

"If AA was here Vlad wouldn't be struggling"

"Donaldson and Tulo got injured because Shapiro hired a bad training staff"

"Shapiro is so arrogant, I'll never by a ticket until he's gone"

[Ray]

How much patience does ownership have to suffer through this poor attendance AND poor W-L records? Will they hang in there with this front office for another year? Two? Five? I'm not seeing much hope of turning things around in any less than 2-3 years.

 

Anthopoulos was given about a 5 year window. I would think Shapiro would be given at least that. Likely more, because him and Ed Rogers seem to be close friends.

[Carlos Danger]

I don't think it's any of that so much as the fact that you can pay $130 or whatever for MLB.tv and sit on your couch and flip though literally any game on the MLB schedule that interests you an watch it in HD on your 55 inch TV. Fighting traffic, paying $30 for parking and $15 for a beer is pretty unappealing in comparison.

 

When I put out that statement, I put it to provoke discussion more so than I believe in it. I also think the above is a huge factor. However, the counter argument is that the MLB packages and 65" HDs TVs have been available for many years and it wasn't so long ago baseball set attendance records...

[Brownie19]

Probably meaningless but my casual friends hate Shapiro -

 

They say things like...

 

"I won't go to a game until Shapiro is gone"

"I bought an Atlanta Braves Jersey"

"Vlad is the only prospect they have and AA drafted him"

"If AA was here Vlad wouldn't be struggling"

"Donaldson and Tulo got injured because Shapiro hired a bad training staff"

"Shapiro is so arrogant, I'll never by a ticket until he's gone"

 

that one's an A+

[Brownie19]

It's a combination of baseball as a whole not being popular (everywhere not just Toronto), Shatkins willing to tank for at least a year if not more, and Toronto being a bandwagon baseball town.

 

Baseball is practically irrelevant in the mainstream. It's completely regional now, and when there is no hype even in your own city, then it's going to spell disaster for attendance.

 

Shatkins could have rebuilt while still trying to field at least a palatable roster. They chose not to. Maybe it will be the right move in the end, but it's going to hurt short term.

 

Were you asleep for 2017 and 2018?

[G-Snarls]

that one's an A+

 

So is the one about the training staff

 

Someone should fire that Yankees training staff cause poor Tulo got hurt again. Clearly, they must also have a bad training staff, there's just no other explanation really. /s

[TheHurl]

Probably meaningless but my casual friends hate Shapiro -

 

They say things like...

 

"I won't go to a game until Shapiro is gone"

"I bought an Atlanta Braves Jersey"

"Vlad is the only prospect they have and AA drafted him"

"If AA was here Vlad wouldn't be struggling"

"Donaldson and Tulo got injured because Shapiro hired a bad training staff"

"Shapiro is so arrogant, I'll never by a ticket until he's gone"

 

I'm not sure these attitudes will ever change without a championship. Casuals want a team to be run like the Dodgers. This front office won't ever do that.

 

As for GSnarls point SD sold 1,500 season tickets upon signing Manny. There is lots the Jays can have happen to get that off season buzz next year and sell tickets (case it point the Marlins and Mets trades). Buzz is good...but I'd rather see them build a good team.

[Bobthe4th]

I'm not sure these attitudes will ever change without a championship. Casuals want a team to be run like the Dodgers. This front office won't ever do that.

 

As for GSnarls point SD sold 1,500 season tickets upon signing Manny. There is lots the Jays can have happen to get that off season buzz next year and sell tickets (case it point the Marlins and Mets trades). Buzz is good...but I'd rather see them build a good team.

 

Nah, attitudes will change when the team is successful again and is considered a contender. AA only became super popular when he brought playoff baseball back to the team, and then he left before the team's window shut.

 

Casuals only care about the big league team, the farm is irrelevant to them. The team at the MLB level has been worse since Shatkins took over compared to the last couple of years of AA, therefore Shatkins = unpopular.

[connorp]

Nah, attitudes will change when the team is successful again and is considered a contender. AA only became super popular when he brought playoff baseball back to the team, and then he left before the team's window shut.

 

Casuals only care about the big league team, the farm is irrelevant to them. The team at the MLB level has been worse since Shatkins took over compared to the last couple of years of AA, therefore Shatkins = unpopular.

 

Yeah, its been pretty clear attendance/interest increases significantly when Jays are good. Didn’t ever mean a WS

[Krylian]

would you pay money to go watch this team?

 

This team has been close to unwatchable since 2017

[TheHurl]

Nah, attitudes will change when the team is successful again and is considered a contender. AA only became super popular when he brought playoff baseball back to the team, and then he left before the team's window shut.

 

Casuals only care about the big league team, the farm is irrelevant to them. The team at the MLB level has been worse since Shatkins took over compared to the last couple of years of AA, therefore Shatkins = unpopular.

 

You need to go to sites where casuals hang out (seriously you should) like the Facebook group. The hatred for Shapiro (they barely mention Atkins because they are casuals) is very real and unlike anything we've seen since JPR. AA was always a ninja to them.

[glory]

Anthopoulos was given about a 5 year window. I would think Shapiro would be given at least that. Likely more, because him and Ed Rogers seem to be close friends.

 

AA rebuilt in 2010, 2011, and 2012. Then after a horrid 2012 season, the payroll suddenly shot up due to short sighted trades/signings.

 

JP rebuilt in 2002, 2003, and 2004, and then after a horrid 2004, Rogers announced a huge 3 year payroll hike which caused a short term window.

 

In other words, Rogers could come out this winter and force Shapiro to win, and it wouldn't surprise me.

[glory]

Were you asleep for 2017 and 2018?

 

They weren't rebuilding in 2017 and 2018. They kept everyone, let their value depreciate, and then traded them at lesser value.

 

In 2019, they could have signed a Michael Brantley type (for example), still got rid of Tulo, Martin, etc, and not had it affect the rebuild. I and many others were screaming for them to trade for Yandy Diaz since the Indians didn't seem to give two shits about him, and of course the damn Rays get him. There were ways to rebuild and try to improve the big league team at the same time, and that Jays didn't do that.

[Brownie19]

They weren't rebuilding in 2017 and 2018. They kept everyone, let their value depreciate, and then traded them at lesser value.

 

In 2019, they could have signed a Michael Brantley type (for example), still got rid of Tulo, Martin, etc, and not had it affect the rebuild. I and many others were screaming for them to trade for Yandy Diaz since the Indians didn't seem to give two shits about him, and of course the damn Rays get him. There were ways to rebuild and try to improve the big league team at the same time, and that Jays didn't do that.

 

Man - they were rebuilding in 2017 and 2018. You can deny that all you want; however, avoiding commitments to long term FA's in 2017 and 2018 was part of the rebuild, keeping almost all of our prospects was part of the rebuild, trading veteran relievers and anyone of any value for marginal 'lotto ticket' prospects was part of the rebuild. They have successfully restocked the farm system to the point it's now widely considered to be top 5 in the league.

 

Keeping the likes of Happ, Martin, Morales, Pillar, etc. in 2017 and 2018, while resigning Estrada, trading for Solarte, etc. was part of the effort to field at least a palatable roster. The plan was to try and remain competitive through the rebuild - however, it simply didn't work (that's baseball). Now that they've dealt all those veteran guys - you can see why they chose that route (because they are all worth next to nothing).

 

I mean they could have sold Sanchez and Donaldson right after the 2016 season, but you (should) be able to understand why they didn't (actually - I don't expect you to understand). Injuries destroyed that value.

 

in 2019 they've clearly decided that adding some veterans to try and field at least a palatable roster was no longer worth it. They needed to see what they had in some of these fringe players. You can cherry pick some FA signings and potential trades all you want - but it's pretty pointless. I look forward to your respond, which I fully expect will include a lot of 'I told you so's'.

Edited May 7, 2019 by Brownie19

[Ray]

AA rebuilt in 2010, 2011, and 2012. Then after a horrid 2012 season, the payroll suddenly shot up due to short sighted trades/signings.

 

JP rebuilt in 2002, 2003, and 2004, and then after a horrid 2004, Rogers announced a huge 3 year payroll hike which caused a short term window.

 

In other words, Rogers could come out this winter and force Shapiro to win, and it wouldn't surprise me.

 

I wouldn't necessarily characterize what AA did as "rebuild". His eventual playoff team relied on mostly 30 year-old position players.

 

One of the main questions I'd ask is how we weren't able to draft and develop a single impact position player from 2010-2015 beyond Kevin Pillar. He gave us around 15 bWAR. The next best position player drafted under the Anthopoulos ERA? That would be Rowdy Tellez, worth a whopping 0.6 WAR so far. I realize we have to give it some time, because some of his draftees are just coming up now (Jansen, Tellez etc), but this seems a little dismal. I also realize that he went very pitching heavy in the draft, but this should be a bit of a cautionary tale when it comes to avoiding position players in the draft. If you go pitching heavy, you're stuck with a farm system that relies on the highest probability bust-rate prospects to pan out.

[glory]

Man - they were rebuilding in 2017 and 2018. You can deny that all you want; however, avoiding commitments to long term FA's in 2017 and 2018 was part of the rebuild, keeping almost all of our prospects was part of the rebuild, trading veteran relievers and anyone of any value for marginal 'lotto ticket' prospects was part of the rebuild. They have successfully restocked the farm system to the point it's now widely considered to be top 5 in the league.

 

Keeping the likes of Happ, Martin, Morales, Pillar, etc. in 2017 and 2018, while resigning Estrada, trading for Solarte, etc. was part of the effort to field at least a palatable roster. The plan was to try and remain competitive through the rebuild - however, it simply didn't work (that's baseball). Now that they've dealt all those veteran guys - you can see why they chose that route (because they are all worth next to nothing).

 

I mean they could have sold Sanchez and Donaldson right after the 2016 season, but you (should) be able to understand why they didn't (actually - I don't expect you to understand). Injuries destroyed that value.

 

in 2019 they've clearly decided that adding some veterans to try and field at least a palatable roster was no longer worth it. They needed to see what they had in some of these fringe players. You can cherry pick some FA signings and potential trades all you want - but it's pretty pointless. I look forward to your respond, which I fully expect will include a lot of 'I told you so's'.

 

Rebuilding in the shadows and rebuilding are two different things. Or at least two different strategies. In no way were the Jays rebuilding in 2017 and 2018. In the background, sure, they made sure the farm system was being taken care of, but in the forefront they held on to players they should have moved and let big league assets depreciate in value before trading them.

 

My example of rebuilding in 2018 would have been trading Donaldson to the Cardinals in the winter and then starting Solarte at third. In hindsight Solarte sucked, but you could have at least projected a 1-2 WAR out of him, while maximizing the return on JD. That's the type of off season the Jays should have had here. They are obviously salivating to trade Stroman, Sanchez, Giles, etc, but wanted their values to increase, but what stopped them from signing good vets instead of spoon feeding playing time to Hernandez, Drury, McKinney, Brito, Hanson, etc? Why sign Galvis then, should have just went with Gurriel and Urena and lived with the consequences.

 

The Jays partially rebuilt in 2017 and 2018 (and even 2016 when they were adding to a playoff team), but no way were they really rebuilding. There was more value wasted in those three seasons than anything else. This team took a huge hit by waiting to trade certain players.

[Carlos Danger]

Giants DFA Solarte... and Pat Venditte. Venditte was on Jays for a cup of coffee wasn't he?

[G-Snarls]

Giants DFA Solarte... and Pat Venditte. Venditte was on Jays for a cup of coffee wasn't he?

 

Yes

 

And Oakland Seattle, etc

 

They changed MLB rules because of his switch pitching

[Key22]

I am wondering how much revenue they actually take in from daily ticket sales and restaurant parking revenue? I mean if you have 10,000 people show up with a team payroll of $65 million - is having 40,000 people show up with a team payroll of $165 million going to be net positive to the bottom line? Is 30,000 extra people per game x 81 home games really going to generate the $100million gap($130CAD)? I seriously doubt that it will. $30,000 extra people spending maybe an average of $60 a head with even a $30US (pure after cost profit - employees, capital expenses to the stadium/field etc etc And this seems high) per head X 30,000 x 81 is around $73 million.

 

Sure they get a percentage of the gate playing away but they get that with a low payroll team and maybe even revenue sharing if they are near bottom of the league in attendance.

 

They are rolling the dice on their prospects becoming stars like the Astros - but the Astros HIT on their stars. The Jays need to basically develop 4 all-star caliber position players, 2 aces and 2 number 2 starters. And that will just be able to keep up with the division rivals. So far we have none of that.

[Abomination]

So ... Ohtani is back tonight!

[5ToolPhenom]

Dwight Smith Jr with another good game tonight. Leading the O's with RBI's now. Would've been one of our best performing players thus far.

[Deadpool]

Dwight Smith Jr with another good game tonight. Leading the O's with RBI's now. Would've been one of our best performing players thus far.

 

I mean, he hit a single and he struck out once. He's had a better than expected season thus far with the bat (still sucks with the glove), but he's not exactly "the one who got away" or anything.

[Doug000]

I mean, he hit a single and he struck out once. He's had a better than expected season thus far with the bat (still sucks with the glove), but he's not exactly "the one who got away" or anything.

 

And yet he looks like an AS compared to Alford

[Deadpool]

And yet he looks like an AS compared to Alford

 

What a silly thing for a person to type. Pick a random player who is overperforming and compare them to a random player who is underperforming and that's supposed to be insightful in any way whatsoever?

[Terminator]

Dwight Smith Jr with another good game tonight. Leading the O's with RBI's now. Would've been one of our best performing players thus far.

 

Smith Jr is a limited player for sure but Steamer is actually starting to come around on the guy. Steamer thinks he's a 103 wRC+ player. Of Teoscar, McKinney and DSJ, looks like DSJ might be the best player.

 

Kind of an interesting look into where Shatkins' approach may have failed them in one instance. Dumping the limited tools guy with a better plate approach and a lower floor over the guys with better exit velocity and a higher ceiling.

[Doug000]

What a silly thing for a person to type. Pick a random player who is overperforming and compare them to a random player who is underperforming and that's supposed to be insightful in any way whatsoever?

 

Random? Jays basically had two choices... keep Alford or keep Dwight Smith Jr... pretty much the exact opposite of a random comparison.

[5ToolPhenom]

I mean, he hit a single and he struck out once. He's had a better than expected season thus far with the bat (still sucks with the glove), but he's not exactly "the one who got away" or anything.

 

He ripped an RBI double in the 8th off of Brasier. But yeah, I'm not losing any sleep over him.

[Deadpool]

Random? Jays basically had two choices... keep Alford or keep Dwight Smith Jr... pretty much the exact opposite of a random comparison.

 

They picked the guy who might be a plus CF over the guy who will be a poor LF.

 

They made the correct choice.

[5ToolPhenom]

Smith Jr is a limited player for sure but Steamer is actually starting to come around on the guy. Steamer thinks he's a 103 wRC+ player. Of Teoscar, McKinney and DSJ, looks like DSJ might be the best player.

 

Kind of an interesting look into where Shatkins' approach may have failed them in one instance. Dumping the limited tools guy with a better plate approach and a lower floor over the guys with better exit velocity and a higher ceiling.

 

Yeah the DSJ scenario is only interesting in who Atkins chose over him. Definitely a bit of a blunder, but overall, probably not gonna be a big deal.

 

It is pretty amusing that he's leading the Orioles with RBI's and one of their best players after they got him off of the scrap heap from us though.