Preparing for 2018

[jaysblue]

Wat? Why would the Jays acquire Neil Walker, who's owed another $4.7M this year and is a FA at the end of the year when we're not in the playoff hunt? The Reds would rightfully ask for a ton for Cozart, who's putting up a 4.3 WAR season. Beckham? Sure, although he's gone on an artificial tear (.449 BABIP) with the O's and clearly TB f***ed that one up. Lowrie - meh, whatever, career 101 wRC+ hitter who'll be 34 next year, can't play SS and will be owed $6M if you want him to be your backup IF in 2018 (while you'd still need someone to backup SS).

 

The Mets would have eaten most of the $ remaining on Walker's contract, which they did when they moved him to the Brewers. Cozart is a FA after 2017 as well and likely the Reds don't offer ARB on him, so they technically will lose him for nothing. I don't see how the Reds would have been in a position to ask a "ton" for him. Beckham has always shown flashes of decent pop and even before his tear, would have been a huge upgrade over Goins & Barney.

 

Jays were 3 GB of a playoff spot two weeks ago. Like I said, not sure it would have made a difference now though there is no denying that adding one of those players would have been significant upgrades over Goins & Barney over this last month and it wouldn't have cost them much via trade. Even if the Jays missed the playoffs, they get to evaluate a player over the next two months and who they could have possibly brought back for next season.

[Brownie19]

The Mets would have eaten most of the $ remaining on Walker's contract, which they did when they moved him to the Brewers. Cozart is a FA after 2017 as well and likely the Reds don't offer ARB on him, so they technically will lose him for nothing. I don't see how the Reds would have been in a position to ask a "ton" for him. Beckham has always shown flashes of decent pop and even before his tear, would have been a huge upgrade over Goins & Barney.

 

Jays were 3 GB of a playoff spot two weeks ago. Like I said, not sure it would have made a difference now though there is no denying that adding one of those players would have been significant upgrades over Goins & Barney over this last month and it wouldn't have cost them much via trade. Even if the Jays missed the playoffs, they get to evaluate a player over the next two months and who they could have possibly brought back for next season.

 

http://i.imgur.com/mFeSy3S.gif

 

I'm going to disengage now thanks.

[jaysblue]

http://i.imgur.com/mFeSy3S.gif

 

I'm going to disengage now thanks.

 

$18M QO for a 32-year-old MI who just had a breakout season?

 

https://www.mlbdailydish.com/2017/7/20/16003828/mlb-trade-rumors-reds-zack-cozart-extension-unlikely

 

Even Ken Rosenthal thinks the Reds don't offer him a QO this offseason.

[TheHurl]

Only thing I know for certain is there will not be a tear down. Much like the Rays all these years the team is going to project to be competitive. Small signings (in length not AAV) and minor trades mostly.

[Boxcar]

What team with money would be willing to trade for him and maybe pre-sign an extension? We won't get as much if he's just being obtained for 1 year at 22M+ which he'll probably get in arb-3.

 

I'd put the odds of Donaldson agreeing to something like that somewhere close to 0%. I also don't see why the other team would pay extra for this window. Wouldn't they have the entire year to work something out with him?

[Boxcar]

My #1 take here is that they need to find a permanent replacement for Travis. His injury problems are chronic and he'll play maybe 40 games before hurting himself and we are treated to the Goins and Barney show.

 

Trade JD. Dunno what you'd get but I'm sure someone will pay a shitload.

 

Find a way to get Reagins a GM job and make him take Tulo. Man, I was so excited when he came here but he's a meagre shadow of what he once was.

 

I think we need to start gearing up for when Bo and Vlad are here. The Yankees are a good example, I think, of the direction we should go.

[Terminator]

My #1 take here is that they need to find a permanent replacement for Travis. His injury problems are chronic and he'll play maybe 40 games before hurting himself and we are treated to the Goins and Barney show.

 

Right on cue...

 

[Abomination]

My #1 take here is that they need to find a permanent replacement for Travis. His injury problems are chronic and he'll play maybe 40 games before hurting himself and we are treated to the Goins and Barney show.

 

Trade JD. Dunno what you'd get but I'm sure someone will pay a shitload.

 

Find a way to get Reagins a GM job and make him take Tulo. Man, I was so excited when he came here but he's a meagre shadow of what he once was.

 

I think we need to start gearing up for when Bo and Vlad are here. The Yankees are a good example, I think, of the direction we should go.

 

I think Zobrist would make some sense. He's still a neutral to plus defender, and can play both 2nd and OF (other positions in a pinch). The Cubs really don't need him anymore, and would probably be just as happy to drop the salary. After his injury riddled summer which destroyed his numbers, he's starting to hit again.

[Terminator]

I'd try to extend JD. If he says no I go to the trade deadline with him. If we are out of it then trade him at the deadline. If we are in it we can keep him and try to resign him in the offseason. I think with better luck we could easily compete in 2018.

 

Now if Shatkins trades him this offseason and we get a solid haul I won't be upset. It's a tough decision.

[Bobthe4th]

I'd try to extend JD. If he says no I go to the trade deadline with him. If we are out of it then trade him at the deadline. If we are in it we can keep him and try to resign him in the offseason. I think with better luck we could easily compete in 2018.

 

Now if Shatkins trades him this offseason and we get a solid haul I won't be upset. It's a tough decision.

 

Yeah, no matter what they try to do it's tough - how much is offered in an extension before it becomes a restriction on what we can do with the remaining budget?

[Bobthe4th]

I'm pretty sure he wasn't suggesting those teams as landing spots for Donaldson....

 

That makes a lot more sense! Thought he was replying to the comment directly above asking for who'd have the assets to acquire JD.

[Terminator]

Yeah, no matter what they try to do it's tough - how much is offered in an extension before it becomes a restriction on what we can do with the remaining budget?

 

If they could get away with a 5 or 6 year commitment which takes him through his age 36 or 37 season it could provide a lot of surplus value. If he can pick up 7 WAR a year in the first couple and then put up 2-3 on the backend it wouldn't be so bad for us. The problem is if you go 7 years or more, that's when it'd be tough for the team to swallow.

[Bobthe4th]

If they could get away with a 5 or 6 year commitment which takes him through his age 36 or 37 season it could provide a lot of surplus value. If he can pick up 7 WAR a year in the first couple and then put up 2-3 on the backend it wouldn't be so bad for us. The problem is if you go 7 years or more, that's when it'd be tough for the team to swallow.

 

Anything more than 5 years (including next year) plus an option year would be too much IMO - but that might not get it done.

 

As we say - it's going to be very difficult to do the "right" thing, when no one really knows what the right thing is!

[Terminator]

Anything more than 5 years (including next year) plus an option year would be too much IMO - but that might not get it done.

 

As we say - it's going to be very difficult to do the "right" thing, when no one really knows what the right thing is!

 

I'd talk to ownership and get a glimpse of what they are thinking about payroll. If they are willing to field a Top 10-12 payroll or so or better I would replace next year with a 6 year, 180 million dollar deal if he wanted. That's probably as high as I would go. Not sure that would get it done though I think it would be pretty competitive.

[Cbert]

I'd talk to ownership and get a glimpse of what they are thinking about payroll. If they are willing to field a Top 10-12 payroll or so or better I would replace next year with a 6 year, 180 million dollar deal if he wanted. That's probably as high as I would go. Not sure that would get it done though I think it would be pretty competitive.

 

Wouldn't a top 10-12 payroll be a step back though? We were fifth this year. I'd sign Donaldson if ownership committed an extra 10-15mill in payroll. That would put the Jays around 175-180million dollar payroll next year. You could keep Donaldson and still have enough flexibility to get a starter and maybe a veteran outfielder with some pop (maybe even Martinez if we can dump most of Morales' contract on someone)

[wk680]

I'd talk to ownership and get a glimpse of what they are thinking about payroll. If they are willing to field a Top 10-12 payroll or so or better I would replace next year with a 6 year, 180 million dollar deal if he wanted. That's probably as high as I would go. Not sure that would get it done though I think it would be pretty competitive.

 

If Donaldson turned down 6/180M guaranteed, it is either because he is a fool or really doesn't want to play in TO long term. I don't see him getting more than a 5/150M deal if he goes to free agency entering his age 33 season in 2019.

 

Wouldn't a top 10-12 payroll be a step back though? We were fifth this year. I'd sign Donaldson if ownership committed an extra 10-15mill in payroll. That would put the Jays around 175-180million dollar payroll next year. You could keep Donaldson and still have enough flexibility to get a starter and maybe a veteran outfielder with some pop (maybe even Martinez if we can dump most of Morales' contract on someone)

 

I think the Jays 2017 opening day payroll was only 5th in MLB if you include the entirety of Upton's salary. But with the Jays only on the hook for $1M of that, it drops their effective payroll down to about 10th in MLB. I know this past off-season there were quite a lot of tickets purchased, so attendance remains good despite the bad results; maybe partly since tickets were already purchased. It will be interesting to see how pre-sales of tickets go this coming offseason. I guess making a splash in the free agent market or a big trade would help energize it.

[Terminator]

If Donaldson turned down 6/180M guaranteed, it is either because he is a fool or really doesn't want to play in TO long term. I don't see him getting more than a 5/150M deal if he goes to free agency entering his age 33 season in 2019.

 

 

 

I think the Jays 2017 opening day payroll was only 5th in MLB if you include the entirety of Upton's salary. But with the Jays only on the hook for $1M of that, it drops their effective payroll down to about 10th in MLB. I know this past off-season there were quite a lot of tickets purchased, so attendance remains good despite the bad results; maybe partly since tickets were already purchased. It will be interesting to see how pre-sales of tickets go this coming offseason. I guess making a splash in the free agent market or a big trade would help energize it.

 

If he were to do 5 for 150 after next season he could easily provide surplus value. I think the market is roughly 9 mil per WAR right now? I could see something like this as a realistic aging curve for him.

 

Age 33, 2019: 5.5 WAR

Age 34, 2020: 5.0

Age 35, 2021: 4.5

Age 36, 2022: 4.0

Age 37, 2023: 3.5

[wk680]

If he were to do 5 for 150 after next season he could easily provide surplus value. I think the market is roughly 9 mil per WAR right now? I could see something like this as a realistic aging curve for him.

 

Age 33, 2019: 5.5 WAR

Age 34, 2020: 5.0

Age 35, 2021: 4.5

Age 36, 2022: 4.0

Age 37, 2023: 3.5

 

So that is a total of 22.5 WAR or $202M in 'value' at $9M per WAR. But I think your numbers are pretty optimistic. Maybe if you knock those numbers down by 1 per season, you still get 17.5 WAR and is worth the 5/150. So he may well get it if he has a good 2018, but I don't see him getting more. There is too much downside risk and you see so many teams (Red Sox, Astros, Cubs, Yankees) building on a core of young position players that is going to limit the free agent market for these 30+ year olds as we already saw this past offseason.

[glory]

I know people 'love' hearing this name on this forum, but Profar wants to be traded and is out of options. If the Jays are looking for a lottery ticket that could become something in a utility role, he's the guy to go after. Worst case he sucks, best case you have something there and he's still young. Plus with Travis and Tulo as the middle infield, he would practically be guaranteed 500 plate appearances.

 

I agree it comes down to JD. Either extend him prior to the season or trade him. Getting s*** back in return next July doesn't make sense, and I don't think there are enough off season moves that would make this team a true contender next year.

 

Use 2018 as a way to gear up for 2019. They don't have to rebuild. Try to be a .500 team next year for all I care. Just move pieces like JD and Happ so that you can keep adding prospects to the system to hopefully give us more ammo for a run in a few years.

[burlingtonbandit]

If he were to do 5 for 150 after next season he could easily provide surplus value. I think the market is roughly 9 mil per WAR right now? I could see something like this as a realistic aging curve for him.

 

Age 33, 2019: 5.5 WAR

Age 34, 2020: 5.0

Age 35, 2021: 4.5

Age 36, 2022: 4.0

Age 37, 2023: 3.5

 

Don't think that's very realistic. At 37 years old theres probably a big drop off much like Bautista. Bautista looks to be in relatively good shape, took great care of his body and was a better hitter than Donaldson was.

 

JD has had a lot of calf problems and that hip injury he had doesn't make me feel great about him in his late 30s.

[Spanky99]

That makes a lot more sense! Thought he was replying to the comment directly above asking for who'd have the assets to acquire JD.

 

No, he was suggesting the Jays to retool like said teams.

[glory]

Don't think that's very realistic. At 37 years old theres probably a big drop off much like Bautista. Bautista looks to be in relatively good shape, took great care of his body and was a better hitter than Donaldson was.

 

JD has had a lot of calf problems and that hip injury he had doesn't make me feel great about him in his late 30s.

 

Yeah, an extension for JD which starts at age 33 is just asking for a bad contract. Aging like Adrian Beltre is not the norm. Plus JD strikes me as someone who wants to test free agency and get dat cash, so he probably doesn't even want an extension right now.

 

The only issue is what could the Jays get for him this winter? Alex Reyes and others from the Cards? I hate pitching prospects so I'd rather get young hitters. If the Jays can trade JD, Happ, and Osuna this winter, I'd consider it a success. It would suck for 2018, but could be massive for future years.

[jaysblue]

Anything more than 5 years (including next year) plus an option year would be too much IMO - but that might not get it done.

 

As we say - it's going to be very difficult to do the "right" thing, when no one really knows what the right thing is!

 

Donaldson will be 33 when 2019 rolls around. As well, he's in a FA class that includes both Harper and Machado. I don't think any team will offer him a 7-8 year deal as a FA based on his age and the current offseason trends we've seen when it comes to aging players/sluggers. I think he'll easily get a 5 year deal + a club option perhaps. 6 years might be the tipping point in getting him locked up.

 

I'll do a rough breakdown of every team and their 3B situation come 2019:

 

AL East: Boston has Devers, so that eliminates one big payroll team. Yankees likely will throw all there money at Harper & Machado, so that would take them out of the equation. If they miss out on Machado, then JD is definitely in play for them. Tampa and Baltimore don't have the money.

 

AL Central: Cleveland has Jose Ramirez on a very team friendly deal. Detroit is likely in full rebuild mode by then, Chicago nah, Kansas City doesn't have the money & the Twins aren't really a fit.

 

AL West: Mariners have Seager still locked up, Astros have Bregman, Angels likely will try to save money & resign Mike Trout or trade him before 2020, no to the A's. Rangers could be a possibility especially if Beltre retires after 2018.

 

NL East: Nats still have Rendon, doubt the Marlins have the $ to sign JD, and the Phillies have Franco. Maybe the Mets or the Braves could have interest & have a need at 3B. Mets have the money obviously, and if the Braves have a solid showing in 2018 with all their young talent, they might be looking to add a major piece for 2019. As well, Atlanta would be close to Donaldson's offseason home in Mobile, Alabama.

 

NL Central: Cubs have Bryant, Brewers & Pirates don't have the $ and the Reds have Senzel. The Cardinals likely could be in play for JD.

 

NL West: D'Backs have Lamb, Rockies have Arenado, and the Padres don't have the $. The Giants have a big hole in their lineup and at 3B (unless they think Christian Arroyo is the answer). Plus, Donaldson has experience living in the Bay Area when he played with Oakland. The Dodgers have unlimited resources, though they already have a good guy at the hot corner locked up until 2020 in Justin Turner. Still they could be creative if they want and move Turner around to a different position if need be.

 

So the teams I have listed who could be interested and have a need at 3B when 2019 rolls around are the Yankees (if they can't sign Machado), Rangers, Mets, Braves, Cardinals, Giants & we'll throw the Dodgers in there because of their unlimited $.

[Krylian]

Retool vs. Rebuild

 

How comfortable are we that the team has enough legit pieces that they can get away with a retool vs. A full out rebuild? If you look at each position, how many are you really comfortable with where you think 'yup...that's been locked down'?

[Brownie19]

JD definitely strikes me as someone who will be testing the FA market and asking for the world. His arrogance is off the charts.

[Krylian]

JD definitely strikes me as someone who will be testing the FA market and asking for the world. His arrogance is off the charts.

 

This.

[burlingtonbandit]

Why do people bash players that want to test FA, its their right lol. Doesn't really matter what they ask for, a team is going to pay what they are willing to pay.

[Bobthe4th]

Why do people bash players that want to test FA, its their right lol. Doesn't really matter what they ask for, a team is going to pay what they are willing to pay.

 

Not that I think that's what Brownie or Krylian were doing, but it's a natural reaction when if any of us were millionaire professional sportsmen we'd like to think we'd prioritise things other than money.

[Brownie19]

Why do people bash players that want to test FA, its their right lol. Doesn't really matter what they ask for, a team is going to pay what they are willing to pay.

 

Who was bashing him?

[Brownie19]

Not that I think that's what Brownie or Krylian were doing, but it's a natural reaction when if any of us were millionaire professional sportsmen we'd like to think we'd prioritise things other than money.

 

I think that's fair. I mean a lot of us sacrifice money in our everyday lives - even when that money would actually make a difference. The you'll have a hard time convincing me there's a significant difference between $150M and $180M. I mean that might reduce the # of family members you can payroll for the rest of their lives, but in the players world, it can't matter much....certainly nowhere near as much as it would for one of us to take a $10K cut to live closer to home or something.