Blue Jays Sign Jose Bautista

[burlingtonbandit]

Keith Law chat today:

 

Ryan: Thoughts on the Bautista deal?

Klaw: I’ve said there’s no such thing as a bad one year deal. That’s pretty much how I feel here. The Jays get to roll the dice on having Bautista get healthy and produce more than he did last year; if he does 2015 again, it’s a steal.

 

Ryan: Would you rather Bautista at 1 year, $18m, or Trumbo at 3 years, $37m?

Klaw: Bautista, easily.

 

Lol didn't Law say he would only give Bautista 2/24 in the offseason?

[Terminator]

Colabello might be the worst outfielder we've ever seen, in any uniform. My god that guy sucks at baseball.

 

So bad. He made Adam Lind look like Kevin Pillar. I can't believe I forgot him.

[Governator]

No, I'm saying replacement level is not 0 WAR. It's better than that.

 

 

Wow!

[Key22]

A better question might be would you rather have Trumbo at 3/$33 (and 3 years at $1.5m) or Morales at 3/$33m?

[Jonn]

A better question might be would you rather have Trumbo at 3/$33 (and 3 years at $1.5m) or Morales at 3/$33m?

 

You have to add the value of the first round pick.

[Key22]

Ahh - thanks John - forgot about that. Morales then.

 

Even without considering the pick though - Morales still might be the better overall bat if there is an expected gain from going from all pitcher parks through his career to the hitter friendly Skydome (I will always call it the Skydome damn it).

[burlingtonbandit]

A better question might be would you rather have Trumbo at 3/$33 (and 3 years at $1.5m) or Morales at 3/$33m?

 

Given he's a switch hitter I'd go with Morales.

[TwistedLogic]

Average is 2 WAR. Replacement level is 0.0 WAR, i.e. zero wins above replacement.

 

I know you weren't making any arguments here, but I believe one thing should definitely be clarified. When we say "average is 2 WAR", are we talking about the mean or the median? Because I think a distinction is important.

 

When you're talking about baseball, where such a large amount of the total WAR per season is contributed by the game's elite, the "average player" (the median) is almost always more valuable than the "average WAR" (the mean). Said in another way, even if the average or mean WAR is 2, a 2 WAR player is actually quite a bit above average (he is above the median; he is better than more players than he is worse than).

 

Examples from 2016:

 

1 or more Plate Appearances

 

- 971 Players, 569.5 WAR

- Mean: 0.6 WAR

- Median: 0.0 WAR (Justin Morneau)

 

50 or more Plate Appearances

 

- 542 Players, 585.9 WAR

- Mean: 1.1 WAR

- Median: 0.6 WAR (TJ Rivera)

 

100 or more Plate Appearances

 

- 438 Players, 592.1 WAR

- Mean: 1.4 WAR

- Median: 0.9 WAR (Hyun Soo Kim)

 

300 or more Plate Appearances

 

- 268 Players, 562 WAR

- Mean: 2.1 WAR

- Median: 1.7 WAR (Giancarlo Stanton)

 

Qualified:

 

- 146 Players, 433.9 WAR

- Mean: 3.0 WAR

- Median: 2.6 WAR (Hanley Ramirez)

 

In baseball, if you have a player on your roster who is contributing the same amount as the mean WAR under any set of criteria, he is by default an above average player. That is, as long as by "above average" you mean "better than half of his peers".

 

TLDR: A 2 WAR player is actually above average, even if the "average WAR" throughout the league is 2. Russell Martin (1.9 WAR) was an above average player in 2016.

 

Note: Sorry for the semantic satiation. Not actually sorry. Average. Average average. Avg. Average batting average. Above average average average. Every edge's edgy average.

[King]

wall of text

http://i.imgur.com/cMOcRKd.png

[Orgfiller]

I hate when people say this. Obviously he was talking relative to the MLB, not to a BJMB backyard slo pitch game.

 

100% I can play better outfield defense than Chris Colabello. He was beyond awful.

[Orgfiller]

I know you weren't making any arguments here, but I believe one thing should definitely be clarified. When we say "average is 2 WAR", are we talking about the mean or the median? Because I think a distinction is important.

 

When you're talking about baseball, where such a large amount of the total WAR per season is contributed by the game's elite, finding the "average player" (the median) is more important than the "average WAR" (the mean). Even if the average, or mean WAR is 2, a 2 WAR player is actually quite a bit above average (he is better than more players than he is worse than).

 

Examples from 2016:

 

1 or more Plate Appearances

 

- 971 Players, 569.5 WAR

- Mean: 0.6 WAR

- Median: 0.0 WAR (Justin Morneau)

 

50 or more Plate Appearances

 

- 542 Players, 585.9 WAR

- Mean: 1.1 WAR

- Median: 0.6 WAR (TJ Rivera)

 

100 or more Plate Appearances

 

- 438 Players, 592.1 WAR

- Mean: 1.4 WAR

- Median: 0.9 WAR (Hyun Soo Kim)

 

300 or more Plate Appearances

 

- 268 Players, 562 WAR

- Mean: 2.1 WAR

- Median: 1.7 WAR (Giancarlo Stanton)

 

Qualified:

 

- 146 Players, 433.9 WAR

- Mean: 3.0 WAR

- Median: 2.6 WAR (Hanley Ramirez)

 

In baseball, if you have a player on your roster who is contributing the same amount as the mean WAR under any set of criteria, he is by default an above average player. That is, as long as by "above average" you mean "better than half of his peers".

 

TLDR: A 2 WAR player is actually above average, even if the "average WAR" throughout the league is 2. Russell Martin (1.9 WAR) was an above average player in 2016.

 

Note: Sorry for the semantic satiation. Not actually sorry. Average. Average average. Avg. Average batting average. Above average average average. Every edge's edgy average.

Well Russell Martin was an above average player in 2016 because his framing likely adds over a full win.

 

BJMB: combating pedanticism with pedanticism.

[Orgfiller]

Colabello might be the worst outfielder we've ever seen, in any uniform. My god that guy sucks at baseball.

 

Chris Colabello

Adam Lind

Michael Saunders (post-knee injury)

Eric Thames

 

Jesus Christ the Jays have sure loved their average hitting, brutal defensive left fielders over the years.

[King]

Chris Colabello

Adam Lind

Michael Saunders (post-knee injury)

Eric Thames

 

Jesus Christ the Jays have sure loved their average hitting, brutal defensive left fielders over the years.

Nolan Reimold

Melky Cabrera

Juan Rivera

Moises Sierra

[Orgfiller]

Nolan Reimold

Melky Cabrera

Juan Rivera

Moises Sierra

 

I forgot Juan Rivera was a real person that played for the Blue Jays.

[TwistedLogic]

http://i.imgur.com/cMOcRKd.png

 

Yes, I've read the FanGraphs glossary entry on WAR, and their poorly written blurb about "average WAR" is what stemmed my post above. What do they mean by "average full-time position player"? How many plate appearances do they use for a cut-off? Because the average qualified position-player in 2016 was worth almost a full win more than 2 WAR. And what the hell is an "average bench player"? An average bench player is a below-average full-time player. That's why he's a bench player.

 

When people repeat the idea that an average player is 2 WAR, they aren't specifying whether that is an average among players who reached a certain playing time. Simply saying "average player" implies that you are including all players, including bench players and MVPs. And in most cases, a player who has posted 2 WAR in a season is actually above average.

[King]

Yes, I've read the FanGraphs glossary entry on WAR, and their poorly written blurb about "average WAR" is what stemmed my post above. What do they mean by "average full-time position player"? How many plate appearances do they use for a cut-off? Because the average qualified position-player in 2016 was worth almost a full win more than 2 WAR. And what the hell is an "average bench player"? An average bench player is a below-average full-time player. That's why he's a bench player.

 

When people repeat the idea that an average player is 2 WAR, they aren't specifying whether that is an average among players who reached a certain playing time. Simply saying "average player" implies that you are including all players, including bench players and MVPs. And in most cases, a player who has posted 2 WAR in a season is actually above average.

 

Is baseball even real?

[King]

How Can Our Bases Be Real If Our Balls Arent Real

[TwistedLogic]

Well Russell Martin was an above average player in 2016 because his framing likely adds over a full win.

 

BJMB: combating pedanticism with pedanticism.

 

Russell Martin was an above average player in 2016 without his framing being taken into account.

 

My post wasn't meant to be pedantic. I was simply clarifying that the idea that a 2-WAR player is average is generally inaccurate.

 

Unless you're limiting your criteria to quite a small portion of the MLB's player base, a 2 WAR player is almost always above average.

[King]

Rip

[Laika]

Yes, I've read the FanGraphs glossary entry on WAR, and their poorly written blurb about "average WAR" is what stemmed my post above. What do they mean by "average full-time position player"? How many plate appearances do they use for a cut-off? Because the average qualified position-player in 2016 was worth almost a full win more than 2 WAR. And what the hell is an "average bench player"? An average bench player is a below-average full-time player. That's why he's a bench player.

 

When people repeat the idea that an average player is 2 WAR, they aren't specifying whether that is an average among players who reached a certain playing time. Simply saying "average player" implies that you are including all players, including bench players and MVPs. And in most cases, a player who has posted 2 WAR in a season is actually above average.

 

Using PA as a barometer invites extreme survivor bias. You're doing weird stuff that doesn't make sense and isn't necessary.

 

A league average (100 wRC+) hitter with neutral defensive value and neutral baserunning value is worth 2 wins in a full season.

 

To understand WHY you need to know how WAR is calculated. The components of WAR are:

 

Hitting runs

Baserunning runs

Fielding runs

Positional adjustment

League adjustment

Replacement level adjustment

 

The first three components are all runs relative to league average skill at those specific things.

 

If a player moves through the first five components and has calculated exactly zero runs, but they played a full season, then they get 20 replacement level runs. A league average player is worth 2 wins.

 

But why? Because it's WINS ABOVE REPLACEMENT and we specifically want league average players to be given an arbitrary number higher than zero. The 2.0 = average line was set in the creation of the statistic!

 

But why 2? Because there is a set number of wins in baseball, and we know that an average team (.500 win rate) playing at true talent has, on average, a set of average players. We can crunch the numbers and figure out how many wins an average dude is worth on this scale.

 

We could just as easily use WINS RELATIVE TO REPLACEMENT and the league average player would be worth zero wins. But, WRR is an inferior acronym.

[TwistedLogic]

A league average (100 wRC+) hitter with neutral defensive value and neutral baserunning value is worth 2 wins in a full season.

 

I appreciate the response and all of the extra context.

 

I can understand that in theory, a 2 WAR player can be called exactly average. My main point, and what I'm still unclear on, is that in most years, a player that does post 2 wins above replacement is generally better than the average. And this idea that a 2-win player is theoretically average is often then directly translated by people into saying saying "Carlos Gonzalez posted 2 wins in 2016, and therefore he was average". Well no, Carlos Gonzalez was better than a lot more than half the league.

 

If a player moves through the first five components and has calculated exactly zero runs, but they played a full season, then they get 20 replacement level runs. A league average player is worth 2 wins.

 

I understand what you mean when you say that including PAs does "weird stuff that doesn't make sense", and I'm sure that there are better numbers out there than something as basic as PA, but this is where there is a point of confusion for me. "If a player has calculated exactly zero runs but played a full season..." What is a full season? How is that determined if not by PA? A player who posted 2 WAR in 100 games and 450 PA was not equivalent to a player who posted 2 WAR in 162 games and 700 PA. Maybe equivalent in value but not in quality of play.

 

How many plate appearances/innings do you have to play, in which you've calculated exactly zero runs under your five listed components, to where you hit 2 WAR?

[GD]

I forgot Juan Rivera was a real person that played for the Blue Jays.

 

Fred Lewis

[Orgfiller]

Fred Lewis

 

I only remember him because I had a classmate who bought his jersey due to them sharing a last name. Our team went through some really obscure players the 5 years or so prior to making the playoffs. And we've only just talked about outfielders! Brad Wilkerson also comes to mind. Let's not forget the legends of the infield that were Joe Inglett and Mike McCoy. Curtis Thigpen - wasn't ECJF a fan of his?

 

Guys remember when we almost signed contender for ugliest person in baseball, Ronald Belisario?

[Laika]

I appreciate the response and all of the extra context.

 

I can understand that in theory, a 2 WAR player can be called exactly average. My main point, and what I'm still unclear on, is that in most years, a player that does post 2 wins above replacement is generally better than the average. And this idea that a 2-win player is theoretically average is often then directly translated by people into saying saying "Carlos Gonzalez posted 2 wins in 2016, and therefore he was average". Well no, Carlos Gonzalez was better than a lot more than half the league.

 

 

 

I understand what you mean when you say that including PAs does "weird stuff that doesn't make sense", and I'm sure that there are better numbers out there than something as binary as PA, but this is where there is a point of confusion for me. "If a player has calculated exactly zero runs but played a full season..." What is a full season? How is that determined if not by PA? A player who posted 2 WAR in 100 games and 450 PA was not equivalent to a player who posted 2 WAR in 162 games and 700 PA. Maybe equivalent in value but not in quality of play.

 

How many plate appearances/innings do you have to play, in which you've calculated exactly zero runs under your five listed components, to where you hit 2 WAR?

 

A lot of what you're carrying on about, or stumbling over, is just semantics. "league average player" in the WAR context means league average starter. "league average player" does not mean the mean talent of everybody who laces them up, for whatever amount of time, in the big leagues. In reality in baseball there is functional overlap between all levels, and a lengthy regress of talent. If we want, we can expand our circle from MLB starters to all MLB contributors, to AAA, AA, A, rookie ball and Carlos Gonzalez will go from a 50% percentile talent all the way to a 99.99th percentile talent. Your low PA cutoff was just making the circle too big. And your high PA cutoff was making it too small (teams use platoons, players get hurt - all "qualified" players taken together do not give us enough innings to play a full MLB season, not even close!)

 

As for your last question, 162 games or 650 PA I believe, although I'm not 100%. See Jonathan Schoop last year for a close to ideal real world illustration. Go to the "Value" tab of his Fangraphs page.

 

It's good that you're questioning things and thinking about things critically.

[GD]

climate change (lol)

 

 

lol

 

lol

[Orgfiller]

lol

 

We have to go deeper.

[TwistedLogic]

As for your last question, 162 games or 650 PA I believe, although I'm not 100%. See Jonathan Schoop last year for a close to ideal real world illustration. Go to the "Value" tab of his Fangraphs page.

 

Yeah, that's pretty much what I was looking for. Thanks for the clarity.

 

Pretty crazy that Schoop was able to get into all 162 games and post exactly 2.0 WAR. Even had a .305 BABIP and a 97 wRC+. Pretty much the exactly average MLB player. Almost hilariously average.

 

Schoop had a teammate almost as average as him, too. Trumbo appeared in 159 games and 667 PA and posted a 2.2 fWAR.

[TwistedLogic]

Even though we've established that using PA as a league-wide cutoff is useless and that the average player will post 2 WAR in 650 PA, I decided to quickly finish with my search since I had already started it.

 

Wanted to see at what point does the average player in the pool contribute 2 WAR, regardless of how much more he played beyond that. It seems that point is 300 plate appearances:

 

2016: 268 players with 300+ PA: mean WAR of 2.10

2015: 268 players with 300+ PA: mean WAR of 2.02

2014: 263 players with 300+ PA: mean WAR of 2.10

2013: 277 players with 300+ PA: mean WAR of 2.05

2012: 265 players with 300+ PA: mean WAR of 2.11

2011: 265 players with 300+ PA: mean WAR of 2.03

 

The average WAR among players with at least 300 PA each year seems to hover around 2.0-2.1 WAR. Narrowing or widening the pool any further makes the number too big or too small.

 

Interesting, even if the information is worthless.

[intentional wok]

I only remember him because I had a classmate who bought his jersey due to them sharing a last name. Our team went through some really obscure players the 5 years or so prior to making the playoffs. And we've only just talked about outfielders! Brad Wilkerson also comes to mind. Let's not forget the legends of the infield that were Joe Inglett and Mike McCoy. Curtis Thigpen - wasn't ECJF a fan of his?

 

Guys remember when we almost signed contender for ugliest person in baseball, Ronald Belisario?

 

Robinzon Diaz, the MVPTBNL

 

Other Blue Jay footnotes:

 

John Thomson

Ty Taubenheim

John-Ford Griffin

Kevin "Shrek" Mench

Edited January 21, 2017 by intentional wok

[Rusty_Savage]

Robinzon Diaz, the MVPTBNL

 

Isn't he the guy we traded for Bautista?

 

Or is that what you were getting at?