How much money would you give Donaldson this offseason?

[fatcowxlive]

#BlankCheck

 

But seriously I think he's going to give us at least 3 more MVP like seasons, I like then numbers you threw out BTS, I'd sign him for that amount. Given how many fans are showing up here I think we would have enough budget to fund him.

 

To be completely honest though, I'm OK with whatever direction this team decides to take. I have never felt I had this much trust in a management team ever. I loved everything Atkins said the last few days, whatever they do I'm down with honestly. But personally I would love to see JD stay here long term.

[BTS]

Is there a list (or could we make a list) of players who were signed at age 31-32 on long term deals (say 6+ years) that provided positive value to the team? I suspect Adrian Beltre did, maybe Arod? but that list has to be pretty short.

 

This seems like a move we'd do if we're on the cusp of winning the WS in 2019-2020 and we need to keep JD here to make it happen.

 

Jayson Werth (7/126 starting at 32) was fine

Cano (10/240 starting at 31) looks like it might actually be OK - already 13.3 fWAR

Holliday (7/120 starting at 30) was fine

Beltre (5/96 starting at 32)

 

You'd have to really believe in the player. And you really don't want to go past 37-38. Anything taking the player to 39-40 is probably a terrible idea.

[Terminator]

I'd approach him now and ask him if he'd be interested in an extension. 7/200 or something like that. It'd be an immediate raise for him and he'd lock up a long-term fortune.

 

On the flip side, 31-37 could payoff for the Jays. 33-40 will almost assuredly not.

[jaysblue]

Assuming payroll goes to around 160M, and he's interested in tearing up the 1/17 left on his contract to talk long-term extension. Remember that he has two remaining years of team control, and is entering his age-31 season.

 

Looking at Cano's 10/240 deal entering his age-32 season, and Greinke's 6/206 entering his age-32 season, the bare minimum for JD seems to be 8/200. Probably closer to 9/250 than that though. Would you do it?

 

Might be better to ride out JD's contract and maybe resign him after he becomes a FA since he'll be 33 and his value might decline a bit by then. Plus factor in that Machado, Harper, and a whole bunch of other top players will be FA's and a lot younger, so there might not be that $200+ million/8 year deal for Donaldson at that point, maybe more like a 5-6 year deal instead.

[jaysblue]

Jayson Werth (7/126 starting at 32) was fine

Cano (10/240 starting at 31) looks like it might actually be OK - already 13.3 fWAR

Holliday (7/120 starting at 30) was fine

Beltre (5/96 starting at 32)

 

You'd have to really believe in the player. And you really don't want to go past 37-38. Anything taking the player to 39-40 is probably a terrible idea.

 

Werth was really only good for 2 seasons (maybe could make an argument for 3) during his Nationals tenure.

[Captain Adama]

Might be better to ride out JD's contract and maybe resign him after he becomes a FA since he'll be 33 and his value might decline a bit by then. Plus factor in that Machado, Harper, and a whole bunch of other top players will be FA's and a lot younger, so there might not be that $200+ million/8 year deal for Donaldson at that point.

 

You have a good argument here, but it can quickly become a lot more difficult if Donaldson continues to put up 7+ WAR seasons for the next two years and could demand the same amount of money-term and then you're probably paying him into his age 40 year(s)

[Dr Negative]

I think Votto's contract will work out.

[jaysblue]

You have a good argument here, but it can quickly become a lot more difficult if Donaldson continues to put up 7+ WAR seasons for the next two years and could demand the same amount of money-term and then you're probably paying him into his age 40 year(s)

 

Yeah that's the only thing. It's risky, though you would have to hope he wouldn't get more than 5-6 years when he's 33.

 

I'm fine either way if they decide to extend him now. I'd like to see JD here long term and if he could age well like Adrian Beltre has, that would be the ideal situation!

[fatcowxlive]

You have a good argument here, but it can quickly become a lot more difficult if Donaldson continues to put up 7+ WAR seasons for the next two years and could demand the same amount of money-term and then you're probably paying him into his age 40 year(s)

 

Right. Also guys please don't forget that the FA class we're talking about isn't a secret, the Yankees are cleaning house and will be poised to make a few splashes, same with LA and Boston. I know we have a great revenue stream, but I don't think we can compete with that upper tier just yet. I like the point you make, I would rather give him the money and term now, I'm pretty sure he's going to get more on the open market, that year is probably going to be bonkers in terms of handing out huge contracts

[BTS]

Werth was really only good for 2 seasons (maybe could make an argument for 3) during his Nationals tenure.

 

Yeah, you're right 13.5 fWAR so far on the deal. 9.33M/WAR if he adds nothing next year. If he adds a win and gets it down to ~8.7M/win over the life of the contract, it's not a disaster. I doubt they have any serious regrets, though if he were healthier it obviously would have been better.

[Olerud363]

But would it be insane to pay big bucks for 33-38? You probably only have that option by starting the contract now. Otherwise you're looking 33-39 or 33-40.

 

I don't have enough understanding of the actual value of players and modern aging curves to answer this. All I can do is bring up anecdotal evidence

 

Alex Rodriguez 31+++ went 9, 6, 4, 4, 4, 2ish... controversey, 2,-1, 0 (released)

 

We allready have what is likely to be the best 2 years...

 

Josh Donaldson 31-40 -- may be 30 WAR

 

but will 15 of it be 31,32??

[Captain Adama]

Werth was really only good for 2 seasons (maybe could make an argument for 3) during his Nationals tenure.

 

Werth has been worth nearly 106 million during his contract, he could reach his contract worth with a decent year in 2017.

[Spanky99]

BTS, is right!!!

 

plus as i stated earlier Turner might be my or a Dark horse pick to play 1st for the Jays as well next year!

 

what do you guys see him asking or going for pay wise?

 

If Turner was available for the right price I think this is a good idea, I think he has experience playing 2nd as well, make him super utility

 

Donaldson - 130 games 3rd, 20 games DH... PLEASE DO NOT BE AN ASS ABOUT THESE DAYS OFF DONALDSON... we need you strong in late September October so you can hammer the Bauers and Tomlins of the world.

 

Turner - 30 games 3rd, 30 games 2nd, x games outfield, x games 1b, x games DH

 

Would be awesome to see a super util, probably won't happen

 

This would be a very hard sell to get Turner, he'll be taking a full-time gig at 3rd base, somewhere else.

[Krylian]

Donaldson will walk as soon as he becomes an FA. I think the Vernon deal has soured ownership on longer term deals permanently. Especially given that he's around 30 right now.

 

If Vladdy becomes what we hope he will, I can see the Jays maybe offering him a long term deal, as he'd be what... Mid-20's? But those are the only type of scenarios i see playing out.

 

It's gonna be all about value and flexibility. Get used to it.

[AdamGreenwood]

#BlankCheck

 

But seriously I think he's going to give us at least 3 more MVP like seasons, I like then numbers you threw out BTS, I'd sign him for that amount. Given how many fans are showing up here I think we would have enough budget to fund him.

 

To be completely honest though, I'm OK with whatever direction this team decides to take. I have never felt I had this much trust in a management team ever. I loved everything Atkins said the last few days, whatever they do I'm down with honestly. But personally I would love to see JD stay here long term.

 

Yeah, I'm mostly good with Shapiro. The exceptions are:

 

Trading Hendriks for Jesse Chavez.

Re-signing Justin Smoak

Not sure about the Upton trade. I know we got him cheap, but I've just always thought he has about the worst attitude in the game.

[BTS]

Yeah, I'm mostly good with Shapiro. The exceptions are:

 

Trading Hendriks for Jesse Chavez.

Re-signing Justin Smoak

Not sure about the Upton trade. I know we got him cheap, but I've just always thought he has about the worst attitude in the game.

 

These two were so bizarre. They really stick out, because everything else they've done was logical and well-thought out. The Smoak deal in particular just didn't make any sense.

[Terminator]

Yeah Hendriks and Smoak were both really bad, if not all that consequential.

[HERPDERP]

Aren't you guys worried about another Vernon Wells?

[Terminator]

Aren't you guys worried about another Vernon Wells?

 

I think most every post has been pushing caution so yes we are.

[Governator]

Aren't you guys worried about another Vernon Wells?

 

I think most every post has been pushing caution so yes we are.

 

The two aren't that comparable though except perhaps age of signing. Wells had 1 great season and got paid handsomely for it.

 

Donaldson has had 4 straight years of > 6.5 fWAR... we're talking one of the best overall players in baseball for 4 years in a row. He might crash & burn in a few years sure but you can't really argue he hasn't had tremendous consistency playing at an elite level and it's much harder to imagine a sudden stark drop off anytime soon compared to wells. Will we regret it down the road having a s*** ton of immovable money tied up? Probably, but if it brings us a championship in the near future then the answer is no we shouldn't regret it.

[BTS]

The two aren't that comparable though except perhaps age of signing. Wells had 1 great season and got paid handsomely for it.

 

Donaldson has had 4 straight years of > 6.5 fWAR... we're talking one of the best overall players in baseball for 4 years in a row. He might crash & burn in a few years sure but you can't really argue he hasn't had tremendous consistency playing at an elite level and it's much harder to imagine a sudden stark drop off anytime soon compared to wells. Will we regret it down the road having a s*** ton of immovable money tied up? Probably, but if it brings us a championship in the near future then the answer is no we shouldn't regret it.

 

There was an article on FG a few weeks ago talking about player peaks. IIRC Donaldson's 5-year peak is one of the top-100 in MLB history, and that includes his 1.5 win 2012. This isn't Vernon Wells. This is a HOF caliber talent. Obviously there's still risk, but as you say, we're talking a completely different quality of player.

[AdamGreenwood]

These two were so bizarre. They really stick out, because everything else they've done was logical and well-thought out. The Smoak deal in particular just didn't make any sense.

 

The pattern seems to be that Shapiro likes contingency plans.

Jesse Chavez was the contingency plan in case we couldn't find enough starters or one of our guys imploded/got injured through the season.

Justin Smaok is the contingency plan in case we lose Edwin and Saunders. Upton is the contingency plan in case we lose Jose and Saunders.

It's like paying for insurance. If you don't have a fire, it's wasted money, but if you have a fire, you're gonna be awfully glad.

[Olerud363]

This would be a very hard sell to get Turner, he'll be taking a full-time gig at 3rd base, somewhere else.

 

So.. to make a super-util you probably need to find a player with talent who's career isn't exactly working out at this point.

 

Someone with warts... a Justin Turner, who hasn't become Justin Turner yet, someone who would be happy to play 125 games at first, second, third and even a bit of outfield just to get another chance to make the most of their talent... and of course that someone would also have to be able to play those positions.

 

I hate to say it but Brett Lawrie may be non-tendered.

[Maahfaace]

The pattern seems to be that Shapiro likes contingency plans.

Jesse Chavez was the contingency plan in case we couldn't find enough starters or one of our guys imploded/got injured through the season.

Justin Smaok is the contingency plan in case we lose Edwin and Saunders. Upton is the contingency plan in case we lose Jose and Saunders.

It's like paying for insurance. If you don't have a fire, it's wasted money, but if you have a fire, you're gonna be awfully glad.

 

Nothing about upton and smoak should make you "awfully glad"

[Spanky99]

So.. to make a super-util you probably need to find a player with talent who's career isn't exactly working out at this point.

 

Someone with warts... a Justin Turner, who hasn't become Justin Turner yet, someone who would be happy to play 125 games at first, second, third and even a bit of outfield just to get another chance to make the most of their talent... and of course that someone would also have to be able to play those positions.

 

I hate to say it but Brett Lawrie may be non-tendered.

 

Exactly, like this years Jose Ramirez.

[CHRIS]

SHAPIRO: Justin, we're thinking of giving you a two year extension.

 

SMOAK: Really?

 

SHAPIRO: Yes, we like what you bring to the table defensively, and think you have a chance to get on base a lot. One string attached, do you think you could stop swinging at curve balls in the dirt with two-strikes? That's really our only hesitation here.

 

SMOAK: Absolutely! Where do I sign? Wow, two years.

 

SHAPIRO (extending contract, then slowly pulling it back): Just so we're clear. No swinging at curve balls in the dirt with two strikes. That's what everybody does to you. You swing, like, pretty much every time.

 

SMOAK: I have my lucky pen here. I'm ready to sign.

 

SHAPIRO: And the two strike, ball in the dirt thing?

 

SMOAK (mock signing in the air, with eagerness): Yeah, yeah, yeah, no problem. Pen. Good to go. Lots of ink.

 

SHAPIRO (glances at Atkins, who gives him a curt nod): Ok...here you go.

 

-- SMOAK SIGNS, KISSES HIS PEN, THEN DEPARTS --

 

SHAPIRO: I think it will be fine. He just...doesn't swing...with two strikes. Easy, right?

 

ATKINS: Very easy.

 

GHOST OF RON WASHINGTON (in a spooky, echoing tone): IT'S INCREDIBLY HARD.

 

-- END SCENE --

[Olerud363]

Exactly, like this years Jose Ramirez.

 

Richard Urena would fit, young guy, blocked at short (for now), left handed.

 

Interestingly Shapiro apparently started giving Ramirez time in Cleveland at age 20...

[Terminator]

The two aren't that comparable though except perhaps age of signing. Wells had 1 great season and got paid handsomely for it.

 

Donaldson has had 4 straight years of > 6.5 fWAR... we're talking one of the best overall players in baseball for 4 years in a row. He might crash & burn in a few years sure but you can't really argue he hasn't had tremendous consistency playing at an elite level and it's much harder to imagine a sudden stark drop off anytime soon compared to wells. Will we regret it down the road having a s*** ton of immovable money tied up? Probably, but if it brings us a championship in the near future then the answer is no we shouldn't regret it.

 

Yeah they aren't that comparable. I was just saying that all the posts seem to be pretty cautious when it seemed like OP's post seemed to be implying the opposite.

 

I don't think age of signing is comparable either. Wells' extension kicked in at age 29. Donaldson will be much older. Wells got a 126+ million dollar deal, Donaldson is looking at 200+. Donaldson is the better player, but that only means he'll be more expensive and since he's older it also means it's a bigger risk in a lot of ways.

[Hipfan]

Donaldson is one of the greatest player the Jays have ever had; I think it will take a number starting with a 2. I love watching him play, so there is certainly some sentimental/emotional reasons that I'd love to see him sign, but if he will take somewhere in the 7/210 range I'd be ok with that. If he demands something way more than that, then either trade him now to max his value, or ride him out and take the comp pick (assuming it's still there with a new CBA).

[burlingtonbandit]

The hip injury this year scares the s*** out of me though. If he has to get surgery I'm pretty scared of making that big $ commitment to him. Tulo has never rebounded from his hip surgery. Donaldson also plays ridiculously hard so his body might be older than the typical player his age.