How much money would you give Donaldson this offseason?

[King]

Richard Urena would fit, young guy, blocked at short (for now), left handed.

 

Interestingly Shapiro apparently started giving Ramirez time in Cleveland at age 20...

 

Urena would give you a season similar or worse to Raul Mondesi Jr. if you threw him in the lineup next year. I think he needs way more at bats in the upper levels of the minors, and that this is a very bad idea.

[Terminator]

There was an article on FG a few weeks ago talking about player peaks. IIRC Donaldson's 5-year peak is one of the top-100 in MLB history, and that includes his 1.5 win 2012. This isn't Vernon Wells. This is a HOF caliber talent. Obviously there's still risk, but as you say, we're talking a completely different quality of player.

 

Well yeah Donaldson is better but that also means he'll cost a hell of a lot more. Remember that Wells only got an AAV of 18 mil a year. Donaldson is also older, and perhaps significantly so by the time a possible extension kicks in, than Wells ever was. The risk is perhaps even greater with Donaldson than it was with extending Wells for his age 29-35 seasons at 18 mil a year.

[KingKat]

 

Interestingly Shapiro apparently started giving Ramirez time in Cleveland at age 20...

 

Ramirez didn't have prospect value though. One of those under the radar guys who put up solid if not spectacular numbers while being young for his levels. Stat scouty type (with no power). Urena is a very ifferent case. With Ramirez, you don't mind letting him sink or swim but with Urena you could torpedo his value.

[fatcowxlive]

The hip injury this year scares the s*** out of me though. If he has to get surgery I'm pretty scared of making that big $ commitment to him. Tulo has never rebounded from his hip surgery. Donaldson also plays ridiculously hard so his body might be older than the typical player his age.

 

Donaldson post-hip surgery would probably be better than Donaldson playing with the injury, and he was our best player in the post season while dealing with it

[Governator]

Well yeah Donaldson is better but that also means he'll cost a hell of a lot more. Remember that Wells only got an AAV of 18 mil a year. Donaldson is also older, and perhaps significantly so by the time a possible extension kicks in, than Wells ever was. The risk is perhaps even greater with Donaldson than it was with extending Wells for his age 29-35 seasons at 18 mil a year.

 

 

It's not really fair to say it was only 18MM AAV though when it was the 6th largest MLB contract in history at the time of signing, not to mention it was heavily backloaded. It's hard to say JD would be significantly more of a risk when you factor in the inflation, current cost of elite players, what he'll get on the open market anyway and the expected ROI from the first half of the contract.

[Spanky99]

Am I missing something here on this hip injury with JD, I've heard people talk about surgery, etc... has this been confirmed or diagnosed by a surgeon?

[Brownie19]

Jayson Werth (7/126 starting at 32) was fine

Cano (10/240 starting at 31) looks like it might actually be OK - already 13.3 fWAR

Holliday (7/120 starting at 30) was fine

Beltre (5/96 starting at 32)

 

You'd have to really believe in the player. And you really don't want to go past 37-38. Anything taking the player to 39-40 is probably a terrible idea.

 

How long is the list of ones that didn't work out?

 

- Fielder

- Pujols

- Wells

- Howard

- Hamilton

- Mauer

- R.Zimmerman

- Hampton

- Teix

- Kemp

- Ellsbury

- Griffey Jr.

- Crawford

- M.Cain

- D.Wright

- J.Santana

- Zito

- A.Soriano

- J.Reyes

- H.Bailey

- E.Andrus

- J.Upton + Miggy + J.Zimmerman (have to assume these 3 tiger signings will not)

 

Actually - looking at this list (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_sports_contracts) there are a few more players who I think will provide value over the long term

 

- Votto

- Kershaw

- Max

- Verlander

- Posey

- Tulo

- Lester

- A.Gonzalez

- Trout

- Hamels

- Freeman

 

Book is still out on:

 

- Strasburg (unlikely)

- Stanton (injuries - yikes)

- C.Davis

- King Felix (more probably than not + may already have provided it with 2013-2015)

- Heyward (looking ugly).

- Grienke

- Choo

- Cueto

- Braun (likely will)

- Pedroia

- Longo

- K.Seager

 

That's all off the top of my head, so be gentle. There may be players who have or haven't provided value (technically based on WAR).

[Stangstag]

Am I missing something here on this hip injury with JD, I've heard people talk about surgery, etc... has this been confirmed or diagnosed by a surgeon?

 

Just rumors right now, but reporters have been saying that Donaldson (hip), Martin (knee), and Pillar (thumb) may all require surgery.

[Terminator]

It's not really fair to say it was only 18MM AAV though when it was the 6th largest MLB contract in history at the time of signing, not to mention it was heavily backloaded. It's hard to say JD would be significantly more of a risk when you factor in the inflation, current cost of elite players, what he'll get on the open market anyway and the expected ROI from the first half of the contract.

 

Didn't realize it was the 6th largest contract in history at the time. Those are pretty good points. You win. Luckily the Angels saved us and we only ended up paying about 60 million for 6.5 WAR. The Angels paid about 65 mil or so for 0.7 WAR.

 

But it's still incredibly risky IMO. 29-35 is a lot different than 33-40 or whatever it ends up being.

[Spanky99]

Just rumors right now, but reporters have been saying that Donaldson (hip), Martin (knee), and Pillar (thumb) may all require surgery.

 

You know which ones, Davidi or Zwelling? Also, thanks.

 

Edit: Found it, both those guys Brunt and Jeff Blair had a roundtable speaking of it.

[Governator]

How long is the list of ones that didn't work out?

 

- Fielder

- Pujols

- Wells

- Howard

- Hamilton

- Mauer

- R.Zimmerman

- Hampton

- Teix

- Kemp

- Ellsbury

- Griffey Jr.

- Crawford

- M.Cain

- D.Wright

- J.Santana

- Zito

- A.Soriano

- J.Reyes

- H.Bailey

- E.Andrus

- J.Upton + Miggy + J.Zimmerman (have to assume these 3 tiger signings will not)

 

 

 

 

Sorry but most of these guys shouldn't even be in the same breath when trying to compare players of the same calibre to JD... just because they had big contracts doesn't mean they were worth the risk to sign.

[King]

Just rumors right now, but reporters have been saying that Donaldson (hip), Martin (knee), and Pillar (thumb) may all require surgery.

It was Atkins who said it in his media availability a few days ago.

[Terminator]

Sorry but most of these guys shouldn't even be in the same breath when trying to compare players of the same calibre to JD... just because they had big contracts doesn't mean they were worth the risk to sign.

 

Which big deals have worked out?

[BigBounceyBlueBalls]

This would be a very hard sell to get Turner, he'll be taking a full-time gig at 3rd base, somewhere else.

 

 

Based on what evidence and facts ???

 

if we pay him, he will come???

 

who do you see him going to?

 

how much will they pay him?

 

as a super utility player who can play 3rd, SS, 2nd and 1st playing the bulk here, would he not have more value to us then others?

 

insurance, roster flexibility wise?

[Spanky99]

Based on what evidence and facts ???

 

if we pay him, he will come???

 

who do you see him going to?

 

how much will they pay him?

 

as a super utility player who can play 3rd, SS, 2nd and 1st playing the bulk here, would he not have more value to us then others?

 

insurance, roster flexibility wise?

 

That's a lot of questions, bro.

[BigBounceyBlueBalls]

That's a lot of questions, bro.

 

Sorry Spanky, i am bored !!! lol

[King]

Based on what evidence and facts ???

 

if we pay him, he will come???

 

who do you see him going to?

 

how much will they pay him?

 

as a super utility player who can play 3rd, SS, 2nd and 1st playing the bulk here, would he not have more value to us then others?

 

insurance, roster flexibility wise?

He's not a utility player anymore, he played 1200 innings at 3B last year and 1 inning at 1B.

[Governator]

Which big deals have worked out?

 

Well it's true most big $ deals are regrettable unless they are signing young like A-Rod with the Rangers or Cabrera (his first contract). Beltre did good on his 5yr deal and Cano looks to be back on track with his. I'm not really advocating big contracts, I don't like them but I'm just saying comparing him to most players isn't fair to JD when most are simply not coming off 4 straight ridiculous seasons in a row. I can see him producing more like Beltre than Wells in his late 30s.

[Spanky99]

Based on what evidence and facts ???

 

My intuition()... and the fact that he'd be more valuable at 3rd than a 1B.

 

if we pay him, he will come???

 

Jays would likely have to pay out their ass... for the reason above, and he still might not.

 

who do you see him going to?

 

A team looking for a FT 3rd baseman.

 

how much will they pay him?

 

I'd say... ballpark 18-20 million AAV

 

as a super utility player who can play 3rd, SS, 2nd and 1st playing the bulk here, would he not have more value to us then others?

 

It'd be very valuable to us, him, not so much, cause he'd have to play the bulk of his time at 1B.

 

insurance, roster flexibility wise?

 

See above. Like I said it'd be a tough sell, and I doubt he'd come here.

[TheHurl]

wouldn't Miggy's and/or Votto's extensions be the comparable which Donaldson would use. Not sure why he would consider anything less (especially since rumour is that he does not have a good relationship with the F.O.). Just keep the $17M on the books and ride it out into his last year.

[Spanky99]

wouldn't Miggy's and/or Votto's extensions be the comparable which Donaldson would use. Not sure why he would consider anything less (especially since rumour is that he does not have a good relationship with the F.O.). Just keep the $17M on the books and ride it out into his last year.

 

Interesting.

[BigBounceyBlueBalls]

He's not a utility player anymore, he played 1200 innings at 3B last year and 1 inning at 1B.

 

i never said he was a utility player, i want him at first base playing for us.

 

But he can spell at other positions which only adds to his value, one would think.

 

JD at 3rd, Tulo at SS and Devin Glassass at 2nd, he becomes a person of interest and worth exploring as a option for us.

[burlingtonbandit]

wouldn't Miggy's and/or Votto's extensions be the comparable which Donaldson would use. Not sure why he would consider anything less (especially since rumour is that he does not have a good relationship with the F.O.). Just keep the $17M on the books and ride it out into his last year.

 

Seems like he doesn't have a great relationship with a lot of players or FOs in general.

[Spanky99]

i never said he was a utility player, i want him at first base playing for us.

 

But he can spell at other positions which only adds to his value, one would think.

 

JD at 3rd, Tulo at SS and Devin Glassass at 2nd, he becomes a person of interest and worth exploring as a option for us.

 

^^^ That's a Utility player, bro.

[BigBounceyBlueBalls]

Seems like he doesn't have a great relationship with a lot of players or FOs in general.

 

Who Doesn't ?

[King]

i never said he was a utility player, i want him at first base playing for us.

 

But he can spell at other positions which only adds to his value, one would think.

 

JD at 3rd, Tulo at SS and Devin Glassass at 2nd, he becomes a person of interest and worth exploring as a option for us.

 

There will be multiple teams out there that will sign and pay him big money to play 3B full time. I just don't think he signs here to start at almost exclusively 1B. A lot of his value comes from his defense at 3B which you would be paying for, paying for him to not provide that 3B defensive value as a 1B.

[BigBounceyBlueBalls]

^^^ That's a Utility player, bro.

 

f*** you Hater,stop with the Labels....LOl

[King]

I'm unsure if this is the real Big B posting from that account. Not enough exclamation marks.

[Olerud363]

My intuition()... and the fact that he'd be more valuable at 3rd than a 1B.

 

 

 

Jays would likely have to pay out their ass... for the reason above, and he still might not.

 

 

 

A team looking for a FT 3rd baseman.

 

 

 

I'd say... ballpark 18-20 million AAV

 

 

 

It'd be very valuable to us, him, not so much, cause he'd have to play the bulk of his time at 1B.

 

 

 

See above. Like I said it'd be a tough sell, and I doubt he'd come here.

 

lol... some 'yo bro' is scrolling down and down on his phone right now looking for some microposts to read...

[BigBounceyBlueBalls]

There will be multiple teams out there that will sign and pay him big money to play 3B full time. I just don't think he signs here to start at almost exclusively 1B. A lot of his value comes from his defense at 3B which you would be paying for, paying for him to not provide that 3B defensive value as a 1B.

 

He has Good defensive numbers equal or better to his numbers at third i believe as well?

 

what are you calling Big money here also... he made 2.5 and 5 mil and is 31 is not ?