Offseason Roster Thread 2016-17

[ChrisS]

This is exactly my thought process. Start Upton and pray he puts up Padre-like numbers and nets us 1.5 WAR+. He really only needs to hit 90 wRC+ to go with his good defense and baserunning for that to happen.

 

He didnt impress with his defense last year. Dropped the routine fly ball against the Red Sox at home, failed to back up Saunders on the walk-off inside the park homerun vs Cleveland and Im pretty sure he was shaky on virtually every ball hit towards the wall. He seems to not really give a s***. His version of hustling is jogging.

[TholesWeirdEye]

He didnt impress with his defense last year. Dropped the routine fly ball against the Red Sox at home, failed to back up Saunders on the walk-off inside the park homerun vs Cleveland and Im pretty sure he was shaky on virtually every ball hit towards the wall. He seems to not really give a s***. His version of hustling is jogging.

 

I think back in the Tampa days he was known for attitude/hustle problems. I'm hoping it was just due to the fact he was getting acclimated to a new park. His swing also makes me scratch my head and arouses me at the same time.

[burlingtonbandit]

I'll go with Pompey in LF against RHP. Certainly better than Zeke and Upton.

 

Upton has only had a >75wRC+ once in the last 4 years and he had a .352 BABIP. The BB and K numbers were basically all the same.

[G-Snarls]

http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/blue-jays-continue-exploring-free-agent-relief-market/

 

TORONTO – The Toronto Blue Jays are continuing to explore the market for relief pitching, even after agreeing to terms with left-hander J.P. Howell. The club appears to be keeping its options open, with both left-handers and right-handers on the radar this week.

 

Price will be a factor for the Blue Jays, who have committed approximately $153 million to their 2017 payroll. Add in $1.25 million if Jarrod Saltalamacchia makes the team plus $5 million or so for pre-arbitration eligible players like Kevin Pillar and Aaron Sanchez, and the Blue Jays are pushing close to $160 million. Given those commitments it’d be a surprise if the Blue Jays spent big on a reliever at this point.

 

Toronto watched Craig Breslow work out last week and has since remained in contact with the free agent lefty, whose 2016 struggles should keep his price relatively modest. They could also conceivably expand their search for bullpen arms to include pitchers who have spent most of their careers starting.

 

At present, the Blue Jays’ bullpen features closer Roberto Osuna, setup relievers Jason Grilli and Joe Biagini, and Howell, who now projects as their primary left-hander. Beyond that group, manager John Gibbons and pitching coach Pete Walker will evaluate a broad selection of relievers including Ryan Tepera, Danny Barnes, Mike Bolsinger, Gavin Floyd, Glenn Sparkman, Bo Schultz, Aaron Loup, Chad Girodo and Matt Dermody.

 

If the Blue Jays' relief search goes well, another arm could join that mix when pitchers and catchers report in two weeks' time.

[G-Snarls]

This made me look up outstanding arbitration cases and it seems only Stroman is still not settled. Am I looking at this correctly?

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/arbtracker2017

 

Marcus Stroman Blue Jays Player: $3.400MM Team: $3.100MM

[Laika]

Perhaps irrationally, Ryan Tepera is my least favourite Blue Jay. It always just feels like he is awful.

[G-Snarls]

It says these guys are all done:

 

Aaron Loup Blue Jays $1.125MM

Darwin Barney Blue Jays $2.888MM

Ezequiel Carrera Blue Jays $1.163MM

[G-Snarls]

Perhaps irrationally, Ryan Tepera is my least favourite Blue Jay. It always just feels like he is awful.

 

Seems very unlikely to make the team

[KingKat]

Perhaps irrationally, Ryan Tepera is my least favourite Blue Jay. It always just feels like he is awful.

 

In 2015 Tepera was legit terrible. People who only look a his surprisingly decent 2016 numbers defend him but that's a smaller sample size. He still has a FIP of 5 for his career which shows that it's not irrational to feel like he hasn't undone 2015. It's actually literally true. He's not that good. He's not that young. If he build on 2016, he should be fine for the AAA taxi role that he's likely to play but f*** me if he gets high leverage work.

[Bobthe4th]

This made me look up outstanding arbitration cases and it seems only Stroman is still not settled. Am I looking at this correctly?

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/arbtracker2017

 

Marcus Stroman Blue Jays Player: $3.400MM Team: $3.100MM

 

Yes that's right, everyone else agreed on a figure.

[intentional wok]

In 2015 Tepera was legit terrible. People who only look a his surprisingly decent 2016 numbers defend him but that's a smaller sample size. He still has a FIP of 5 for his career which shows that it's not irrational to feel like he hasn't undone 2015. It's actually literally true. He's not that good. He's not that young. If he build on 2016, he should be fine for the AAA taxi role that he's likely to play but f*** me if he gets high leverage work.

 

http://m.mlb.com/video/v684655783/torsf-posey-walks-with-the-bases-loaded-to-win-game/?game_pk=447382

[Pendleton]

Perhaps irrationally, Ryan Tepera is my least favourite Blue Jay. It always just feels like he is awful.

 

I mean, I'll take Tepera on the cheap over Smoak at his salary any day, but I agree that I have no faith in the former at all. His fastball just appears to have no "life" to it, straight as an arrow.

[Stangstag]

I mean, I'll take Tepera on the cheap over Smoak at his salary any day, but I agree that I have no faith in the former at all. His fastball just appears to have no "life" to it, straight as an arrow.

 

Never forget the walk-off walk against the Giants last year.

[Laika]

I mean, I'll take Tepera on the cheap over Smoak at his salary any day, but I agree that I have no faith in the former at all. His fastball just appears to have no "life" to it, straight as an arrow.

 

I'll take Smoak as a bench player. At least he can defensive sub into 1B and pinch hit. Sometimes he runs into a baseball and puts it in the second deck, which is always fun.

 

Tepera I think bugs me because he doesn't deserve his opportunities. It grinds my gears to no end when people talk about his "reverse splits", which are obviously a total mirage and LHB in MLB should absolutely destroy him. But he throws 95 and has a slider that looks kind of good so he'll continue to get chances, and he'll probably be awful.

[G-Snarls]

Davidi article comtemplating whether Jays should try to sign Stroman and Sanchez to Carrasco and Kluber-esque deals now:

Now could be the time for Jays to talk extension with Stroman, Sanchez

 

http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/now-time-jays-talk-extension-stroman-sanchez/

[G-Snarls]

NJH, are you for it??

 

I think I could get down with it for both

[burlingtonbandit]

Pre Arb extensions usually work out for the teams so I'd definitely sign both if it was around Carlos Martinez money or less. I think there is a better chance of signing Stroman than Sanchez though.

[Laika]

Of course.

 

Good time to try to extend Stroman for sure.

 

Sanchez, maybe wait a year. He likely won't lead the league in ERA and get Cy votes in 2017. Boras doesn't sign these kind of pre-arb extensions though, at least not in most cases.

[Governator]

Of course.

 

Good time to try to extend Stroman for sure.

 

Sanchez, maybe wait a year. He likely won't lead the league in ERA and get Cy votes in 2017. Boras doesn't sign these kind of pre-arb extensions though, at least not in most cases.

 

 

Contract needs to include hair policy.

[wk680]

Contract needs to include hair policy.

 

What did you have in mind? I suspect Donaldson may also have compliance issues.

[Governator]

What did you have in mind? I suspect Donaldson may also have compliance issues.

 

Someone other than Stro gets to choose his hairstyle.

[glory]

Yeah I think Stroman is signable. Sanchez not so much with Boras.

 

Still, you have four years of control left on both. Is there any real urgency?

[wk680]

Someone other than Stro gets to choose his hairstyle.

 

Sounds good. I suggest Ross Atkins helps him out with that

[Gary]

Sounds good. I suggest Ross Atkins helps him out with that

 

That's an interesting observation. Who has more testosterone...Ross Atkins or Barry Davis?

[burlingtonbandit]

Yeah I think Stroman is signable. Sanchez not so much with Boras.

 

Still, you have four years of control left on both. Is there any real urgency?

 

There is no "urgency" but you'll very likely save money by signing him now vs waiting until next year. And the closer you get to FA after already making Millions of $ the more likely you'll just wait it out to get a bigger contract.

 

And while it might not make a difference, having him sign now after b2b ALCS appearances and all the success sure doesn't hurt. Especially if the season goes down the gutter and you end up having to sell off a bunch of pieces at the deadline

[bones10]

In 2015 Tepera was legit terrible. People who only look a his surprisingly decent 2016 numbers defend him but that's a smaller sample size. He still has a FIP of 5 for his career which shows that it's not irrational to feel like he hasn't undone 2015. It's actually literally true. He's not that good. He's not that young. If he build on 2016, he should be fine for the AAA taxi role that he's likely to play but f*** me if he gets high leverage work.

 

reverse splits bro

[Bobthe4th]

IMO the 3 biggest keys to the season:

 

Starting pitching health

The 5 starters have the potential to be one of the best rotations in baseball.

 

However, the depth isn't very good, and the likely 6th starter (Floyd) is the most injury prone of them all.

 

Whether Bautista has a good season

Last year couldn't have gone much worse for Jose. This year he's the only outfielder who could potentially have elite value with the bat.

 

A 140 wRC+, >4 WAR season would go a long way to keeping the Jays in the playoff hunt. Conversely a repeat of last year = one of the worst outfield offences in baseball.

 

Josh Donaldson's health

By far our best player has just had two MVP caliber seasons. JD missing >20 games would potentially be devastating to the Jays playoff chances.

 

 

Anyone got a different top 3?

 

You could make an argument for the performance of the bullpen, but it's easy to acquire relievers mid season.

 

Just missing out for me was the success of Pearce. An injury free season where he plays >125 games hopefully = much better production than a Pearce / Smoak platoon at 1B.

[Pendleton]

I found this article regarding a potential batting adjustment for Pillar to be fairly interesting, mainly because I've always believed that he appeared to be standing unusually far off the plate.

 

http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/02/02/one-potential-fix-for-kevin-pillars-hitting-woes/

 

Whether this is the reason or not, Pillar's plate coverage definitely needs vast improvement.

[RealAccountant]

I would say that biggest key is going to be, production from Morales replacing Encarnacion. We know we wont get anything out of the Smoak position anyways, So essentially Morales has to go a long way making up the gap. The second would be the tendor bullpen, and the third would be Tulo, donaldson Martin Health.

 

As long as Tulo, Donaldson and Martin are heatlhy its hard to see this team not competing for a Wild Card.

[Grant77]

IMO the 3 biggest keys to the season:

 

Starting pitching health

The 5 starters have the potential to be one of the best rotations in baseball.

 

However, the depth isn't very good, and the likely 6th starter (Floyd) is the most injury prone of them all.

 

Whether Bautista has a good season

Last year couldn't have gone much worse for Jose. This year he's the only outfielder who could potentially have elite value with the bat.

 

A 140 wRC+, >4 WAR season would go a long way to keeping the Jays in the playoff hunt. Conversely a repeat of last year = one of the worst outfield offences in baseball.

 

Josh Donaldson's health

By far our best player has just had two MVP caliber seasons. JD missing >20 games would potentially be devastating to the Jays playoff chances.

 

 

Anyone got a different top 3?

 

You could make an argument for the performance of the bullpen, but it's easy to acquire relievers mid season.

 

Just missing out for me was the success of Pearce. An injury free season where he plays >125 games hopefully = much better production than a Pearce / Smoak platoon at 1B.

 

I'm not sure if they are bigger issues, but I'm curious to see how the LF and 1B situations play out. After the Encarnacion clusterf***, we find ourselves desperately needing a deeper lineup and have absolutely putrid options at two key offensive positions. I'm hopeful that Upton and Pearce just take the jobs and play well, but we will likely have to add.

 

The bullpen is my other big concern. I like our recent signings, but we're still relying heavily on guys on the downside of their career with less than inspiring depth options to back them up. The 7th and 8th innings could be difficult unless Grilli stays healthy and Howell and Smith reverse their downward trends. I'm hopeful that we can be average with the right additions throughout the season, however.