Offseason Roster Thread 2016-17

[Dr. Dinger]

Most teams on average use what? 8 SPs per year?

 

I thought it was closer to 10.

[Pendleton]

Why should we expect that? It's a possibility sure, but which pitcher's do you think are particularly vulnerable to something really serious?

 

The ones with arms.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/so-how-many-starters-does-a-team-need-then/

 

^ Fangraphs article from 2014 entitled So How Many Starters Does a Team Need, Then?

 

They seem to have concluded that a team's starting depth should be 9 deep.

[BTS]

I thought it was closer to 10.

 

Yeah, I think the average is about 10 exactly.

[reedjohnsonfan]

The ones with arms.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/so-how-many-starters-does-a-team-need-then/

 

^ Fangraphs article from 2014 entitled So How Many Starters Does a Team Need, Then?

 

Thanks that's useful. I was more asking about specifically the Jays' pitchers... none of their pitchers specifically jump out to me as a huge injury risk. Maybe Sanchez?

[Pendleton]

Thanks that's useful. I was more asking about specifically the Jays' pitchers... none of their pitchers specifically jump out to me as a huge injury risk. Maybe Sanchez?

 

lol In all seriousness if he have a pitcher who's more of a threat to be injured this year than the rest, it's got to be Estrada and his back issues without a doubt. We could get into who's arm action might cause future problems and all that jazz but unfortunately Marco is already hurt so it's kind of a no brainer.

[Sorrow]

This has been the worst off season in recent memory for me. I don't care what moves have been made or not made, I'm happy we avoided EE and I'd like to say good bye to JB if we get a pick as well. It's frustrating because so many fans want instant gratification by big name spending when Toronto is in a poor position to do so.

 

What's your depth for an injury to Martin, or Tulo, or JD? It doesn't exist. We don't have starting pitching depth or 'pen depth of arms that aren't question marks because all the depth we did have was traded away between the Marlins, Dickey, Price and Tulo trades. Regardless of spending the money on a piece like Fowler or something else this team was an injury or two away from not contending regardless. It's not normal you only use 5-6 starting pitchers or don't lose strong position players for short term injuries.

 

A retool, if not a rebuild, is coming and people really do need to realize that.

[Abomination]

We are in no position to trade a SP. I think some of you are forgetting how insanely lucky we got with SP health last year. It's very atypical, and you can probably expect to lose at least one of our SP to some serious injury time this season. God forbid it's Stro or Sanchez. We need to address OF, but trading a SP is not an option.

 

I'd trade Estrada if we could sign Ross (both are probably equal injury risks next year, and Ross would be cheaper with extra years of control). Aside from that though, it would be hard to trade from our staff (especially Stroman or Sanchez).

[Brownie19]

Thanks that's useful. I was more asking about specifically the Jays' pitchers... none of their pitchers specifically jump out to me as a huge injury risk. Maybe Sanchez?

 

Each pitcher we have with an arm is a huge injury risk.

[Brownie19]

This has been the worst off season in recent memory for me. I don't care what moves have been made or not made, I'm happy we avoided EE and I'd like to say good bye to JB if we get a pick as well. It's frustrating because so many fans want instant gratification by big name spending when Toronto is in a poor position to do so.

 

What's your depth for an injury to Martin, or Tulo, or JD? It doesn't exist. We don't have starting pitching depth or 'pen depth of arms that aren't question marks because all the depth we did have was traded away between the Marlins, Dickey, Price and Tulo trades. Regardless of spending the money on a piece like Fowler or something else this team was an injury or two away from not contending regardless. It's not normal you only use 5-6 starting pitchers or don't lose strong position players for short term injuries.

 

A retool, if not a rebuild, is coming and people really do need to realize that.

 

Absolutely. The way AA built the team there was no chance of us becoming a sustainable winner who's going to contend year after year. Signing EE and Jose to extend a closing window would only hamper the team long term and prolong the suffering (for the outside chance we catch lightning in a bottle). This team is retooling - I thought that was blatantly obvious by now. That said, given the state of our rotation, with a little luck we still have a chance to make the playoffs this year...

[Governator]

This has been the worst off season in recent memory for me. I don't care what moves have been made or not made, I'm happy we avoided EE and I'd like to say good bye to JB if we get a pick as well. It's frustrating because so many fans want instant gratification by big name spending when Toronto is in a poor position to do so.

 

What's your depth for an injury to Martin, or Tulo, or JD? It doesn't exist. We don't have starting pitching depth or 'pen depth of arms that aren't question marks because all the depth we did have was traded away between the Marlins, Dickey, Price and Tulo trades. Regardless of spending the money on a piece like Fowler or something else this team was an injury or two away from not contending regardless. It's not normal you only use 5-6 starting pitchers or don't lose strong position players for short term injuries.

 

A retool, if not a rebuild, is coming and people really do need to realize that.

 

 

Most team's just don't have that type of depth to replace the production of their 3 best players, let alone a league MVP. If they go down for an extended period of time (like a 60day DL) it's safe to say our season is probably in jeopardy just like most teams who suffer long term injuries to their best players. Some have fallback plans with MLB ready prospects (which in most cases are not guaranteed to be any more productive than replacement level bench players upon call up) but really, losing a Josh Donaldson or Russell Martin and you're probably not expected to make the postseason.

[Sorrow]

Most team's just don't have that type of depth to replace the production of their 3 best players, let alone a league MVP. If they go down for an extended period of time (like a 60day DL) it's safe to say our season is probably in jeopardy just like most teams who suffer long term injuries to their best players. Some have fallback plans with MLB ready prospects (which in most cases are not guaranteed to be any more productive than replacement level bench players upon call up) but really, losing a Josh Donaldson or Russell Martin and you're probably not expected to make the postseason.

 

We don't even have the depth to replace any of them for an extended period of time, which was how I broke the statement down. Outside of Barney and potentially Burns I don't know if we have an actual replacement level piece to play between SS, 2B, 3B, C.

[Captain Adama]

This has been the worst off season in recent memory for me. I don't care what moves have been made or not made, I'm happy we avoided EE and I'd like to say good bye to JB if we get a pick as well. It's frustrating because so many fans want instant gratification by big name spending when Toronto is in a poor position to do so.

 

What's your depth for an injury to Martin, or Tulo, or JD? It doesn't exist. We don't have starting pitching depth or 'pen depth of arms that aren't question marks because all the depth we did have was traded away between the Marlins, Dickey, Price and Tulo trades. Regardless of spending the money on a piece like Fowler or something else this team was an injury or two away from not contending regardless. It's not normal you only use 5-6 starting pitchers or don't lose strong position players for short term injuries.

 

A retool, if not a rebuild, is coming and people really do need to realize that.

 

IMO this team's depth has been the best it's been in recent years. You talk about no depth behind guys if you lose your cornerstone pieces, but any team would be pretty screwed if they lost their best player, or starting shortstop or catcher. I agree the Jays obviously need a backup catcher, but I'm sure the FO is aware of this as well. but McGuire or Jimenez are potential back-up options if Martin goes down. The rotation depth is pretty good, Bolsinger could probably be at least an average starter, Oberholtzer could make a serviceable swingman, and Biagini can start as well. The difference here is, the Jays have serviceable depth underneath the starting 5 that can do at least an average job instead of throwing s*** at the wall hoping something wouls stick as they've done in years' past.

 

The bottom line here is that injuries to your best players will screw almost any team over and the Jays are no exception, but their depth this year is vastly better than it's been than it was under AA. Plus I agree about the retooling, the Jays' core wasn't built to be sustainable, and most rational fans appreciate that, but unfortunately, most fans are not rational.

[Brownie19]

We don't even have the depth to replace any of them for an extended period of time, which was how I broke the statement down. Outside of Barney and potentially Burns I don't know if we have an actual replacement level piece to play between SS, 2B, 3B, C.

 

Well Barney was well above replacement level last year and he could cover 3rd, SS or 2nd for an extended period if need be. He was like 1.5 WAR in 300 PA's or something...The Jays also have time to sign a replacement level backup catcher (if they choose not to go with AJ Jimenez as the backup).

 

If Tulo and JD go down at the same time for an extended period - we're f***ed....as would any team in baseball.

[Governator]

We don't even have the depth to replace any of them for an extended period of time, which was how I broke the statement down. Outside of Barney and potentially Burns I don't know if we have an actual replacement level piece to play between SS, 2B, 3B, C.

 

 

What about Lourdes Gurriel Jr? Also Pearce does have 2B experience. Jiminez is probably replacement level.

[glory]

This has been the worst off season in recent memory for me. I don't care what moves have been made or not made, I'm happy we avoided EE and I'd like to say good bye to JB if we get a pick as well. It's frustrating because so many fans want instant gratification by big name spending when Toronto is in a poor position to do so.

 

What's your depth for an injury to Martin, or Tulo, or JD? It doesn't exist. We don't have starting pitching depth or 'pen depth of arms that aren't question marks because all the depth we did have was traded away between the Marlins, Dickey, Price and Tulo trades. Regardless of spending the money on a piece like Fowler or something else this team was an injury or two away from not contending regardless. It's not normal you only use 5-6 starting pitchers or don't lose strong position players for short term injuries.

 

A retool, if not a rebuild, is coming and people really do need to realize that.

 

After 2015 and 2016, there's really no way the Jays can take a step back (at least on purpose) so trying to put a competitive team on the field while building up the farm system is the only alternative. AA created a one and a half year window. Thankfully Shaps took over when he did because he should be able to salvage this without watching the team turn into Ruben Amaro's Phillies like it would have if AA was still here trading prospects for Joey Votto while re-signing Edwin and Jose.

[burlingtonbandit]

We are in no position to trade a SP. I think some of you are forgetting how insanely lucky we got with SP health last year. It's very atypical, and you can probably expect to lose at least one of our SP to some serious injury time this season. God forbid it's Stro or Sanchez. We need to address OF, but trading a SP is not an option.

 

I disagree. If you can trade a SP for a OF who is better I'd do it in a second. There's still risk that the SP you trade is one of the guys that would get hurt. I'd much rather have a Gavin Floyd/Mike Bolsinger make 5-10 starts over the course of the season than have the current 5 SP + 2 of Upton/Carrera/Smoak getting everyday ABs.

[jerb]

 

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‏@bnicholsonsmith

#BlueJays wanted veteran C Bobby Wilson before he signed with #Dodgers (a deal first reported by @JonHeyman)

[reedjohnsonfan]

Because it's incredibly rare for a team to go through an entire season without losing one of their top-5 starters to a long DL stint...

 

It depends what he meant by "serious injury"... so maybe someone should clarify that first. No reason to flat out expect someone to go down for the whole season, for example.

[Captain Adama]

Yeah, I think the average is about 10 exactly.

 

Yeah, it's 10 exactly, with 32 starts not belonging to the original starting 5.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/so-how-many-starters-does-a-team-need-then/

[Sorrow]

What about Lourdes Gurriel Jr? Also Pearce does have 2B experience. Jiminez is probably replacement level.

 

Gurriel (Gourriel sp?) is likely not MLB ready, he's got some major question marks in regards to the bat. Do you see Pearce able to man lets say 2B if Travis does down for two months, as a regular for that period or are we back to using Barney and Goins in that capacity?

 

We have some options but nothing that you'd want on the field for an extended period of time.

[Spanky99]

It depends what he meant by "serious injury"... so maybe someone should clarify that first. No reason to flat out expect someone to go down for the whole season, for example.

 

So we should expect Dinger to be our forum Nostradamus on when a pitcher tears a tendon/muscle? It happens throughout the MLB every single season, don't be so obtuse.

[Jimcanuck]

Jays were quite lucky with pitching health in both 2015 and 2016 (even with Stro 2015 absence). Without EE and JB both gone, if a normal year happens and some pitchers go down to injury the Jays are likely battling for the ALE cellar. That's just the 2017 reality.

[reedjohnsonfan]

So we should expect Dinger to be our forum Nostradamus on when a pitcher tears a tendon/muscle? It happens throughout the MLB every single season, don't be so obtuse.

 

Ultimately I was wondering if he/someone else had some info on which pitchers might be more injury prone.

[Stangstag]

We don't even have the depth to replace any of them for an extended period of time, which was how I broke the statement down. Outside of Barney and potentially Burns I don't know if we have an actual replacement level piece to play between SS, 2B, 3B, C.

 

Sign Valbuena and that solves everything but backup C.

[Terminator]

I know Valbuena is versatile but where does he play? This team needs OF more than anything else.

[burlingtonbandit]

What are we spending this budget on at this point? Valbuena is an obvious answer. Maybe they had a bad break up in Cleveland or something.

 

Not sure why he's obvious. He can play 3rd but with Donaldson its a waste. You aren't going to sign him to be a platoon 1st baseman especially when he isn't even projected to be an average hitter.

 

Jays need 2 outfielders.

[TholesWeirdEye]

I know Valbuena is versatile but where does he play? This team needs OF more than anything else.

 

Well he played 3 games in LF so...

[Terminator]

Valbuena has been over 125 wRC+ vs. RHP for the last 3 years. Just play him at 1B and Pearce at LF vs. RHP.

 

Against LHP, Pearce plays 1B and Upton plays LF.

 

And he also provides cover for Donaldson so we don't have to use Barney there.

 

That could work. I'm not sure the FO sees it that way though.

[Ray]

NEW YORK METS TRADE RUMORS: FRONT OFFICE REGRETS PICKING UP JAY BRUCE OPTION

 

Link: http://www.inquisitr.com/3859293/new-york-mets-trade-rumors-front-office-regrets-picking-up-jay-bruce-option/

 

Of course they do, because its Jay f***ing Bruce.

 

Nows the time to strike if they want a Liriano type deal for Bruce. Smoak for Bruce + 1 or 2 prospects. We'll take the salary. Then sign Bautista and you're golden.

[Rusty_Savage]

NEW YORK METS TRADE RUMORS: FRONT OFFICE REGRETS PICKING UP JAY BRUCE OPTION

 

Link: http://www.inquisitr.com/3859293/new-york-mets-trade-rumors-front-office-regrets-picking-up-jay-bruce-option/

 

Of course they do, because its Jay f***ing Bruce.

 

Nows the time to strike if they want a Liriano type deal for Bruce. Smoak for Bruce + 1 or 2 prospects. We'll take the salary. Then sign Bautista and you're golden.

 

Except for the terrible defence when your running Jose and Bruce out there