Liriano or Stroman

[G-Snarls]

Well let's look at Stroman's starts.

 

Apr 19: Held them to one run through 6 innings. Gave up two runs in the 7th and was pulled.

June 9: Gave up 3 runs in the first 5 innings. Allowed to pitch the 6th and gave up another run.

June 19: Just flat out got his tits lit. June 9th and this game cap a 10 day stretch where he was at his worst all season.

Sept 29: Threw 6 innings of two run ball. Gibby leaves him to pitch the 7th and he gives up a run. Gibby inexplicably leaves him in again for the 8th and he gave up a double and a single before finally being pulled.

 

If Gibby would just pull him after seeing the lineup two times he would have done much, much better against the O's. I presume that's the plan for tomorrow and then go to Liriano. If it's not I'll be rioting right there with you.

 

100%

 

2 times through the lineup then give them a different look

[UWHabs]

I'll be happy to be proven wrong. But there's a reason 81.5% of us would like to see Liriano out there. I really haven't see any reasons backing Stroman other than "he's our guy, he's been here all year."

 

1. He's a better pitcher.

 

That's basically all you need. If you want more:

2. Going RHP/LHP/RHP against Baltimore makes their life tougher. They either let Kim/Alvarez bat against lefties in the middle of the game, or they're gone for the righties at the back end of our bullpen

3. Liriano has (limited) experience in the pen. Stroman hasn't pitched out of the pen since 2014

4. Similar to 2, having the extra lefty out of the pen gives us a little more versatility.

5. Stroman has been a lot worse in high leverage situations this year. Liriano has conversely been worse in low leverage but better in high leverage. You're only talking about 50-some PAs, but it makes sense to then pitch Stro in the earlier low-leverage innings and save Liriano for the later higher leverage ones.

6. Lastly, Stroman has been awesome the first couple times through the lineup. He's probably our best pitcher by numbers the first 2 times through, but he's been absolutely rocked the 3rd time through or later this year. If he only pitched to 18 batters a game, he'd have an ERA of about 3 this year.

[Laika]

The TTOP is so real.

 

It would be a cardinal f***ing sin in 2016, with Liriano and Stroman fresh, to allow either of them to face the order for a third time. I don't care if they have a perfect game going!

[RealAccountant]

If Liriano is bad you know pretty early based on his control. At the worst you end up a run or two down and run with Stroman.

 

If Stroman is bad you won't have the time to warm the pen. You will be down 4 like that.

[RealAccountant]

The biggest fault in this. The bullpen for blowing it against the O's.

 

We would have Sanchez going

[nmrch]

If Liriano is bad you know pretty early based on his control. At the worst you end up a run or two down and run with Stroman.

 

If Stroman is bad you won't have the time to warm the pen. You will be down 4 like that.

 

You're just making s*** up out of thin air. Liriano is a launching pad and walks a ton of guys, that's the textbook definition of how bad innings are built. Stroman only gets into trouble when too many groundballs sneak through the infield in a succession but he doesn't walk anyone and doesn't give up many HR's, he's much more likely to avoid a really bad inning.

[JonMc]

Well...it is what it is. I was for Liriano too but either pitcher chosen would have been on a short leash anyways so...

 

Stroman is an emotional guy and hopefully he feeds off the cauldron of noise that will be tomorrow night. As long as the bats swing at the strikes and lay off the balls I'll be happy. Even happier if they slap the outside pitches the other way a few times.

 

Tillman is still the one under pressure here. Make some noise fellas.

[bronson44]

Glad they starting Tillman. He looked like s*** last time we saw him but got away with it. They better jump on him early as I'm sure they'll have a quick hook. Calling a 3 run jack by Edwin in the first.

[Terminator]

More worried about the offence to be honest.

 

They're going to see all of Britton, Brach, O'Day and Bundy.

 

The key will be for the offense to tag Tillman for some runs early. He might only go 3 or 4 innings.

[Grant77]

Stroman gives up a .607 OPS first time through and it goes up to .764 by the third time. His ERA is also a run lower at home.

 

Tillman is the exact opposite. He gets crushed to the tune of an .800 OPS first time through and gets stronger.

[closetjaysfan]

I think this decision was ultimately made by the fact that Liriano has experience pitching out of the pen. In short, if Stroman shows signs of struggle early, then they can go to Liriano. Frankly, I think Liriano was the better choice, but I can see why they chose stroman. My worry is a scenario where Stroman starts to implode putting a couple on then giving up a bomb. No way should he be allowed to go through the order 3 times.

[Spanky99]

Shapiro- Paraphrasing here on Tim and Sid... " Himself, Atkins, Strength and Conditioning coaches, analytics dept, Walker, Johnson and ultimately Gibbons made the decision on Stroman. Liriano following Stroman, and he looks forward to working with Gibbons for years to come." Yada, yada...

 

There you have it.

[burlingtonbandit]

Stroman gives up a .607 OPS first time through and it goes up to .764 by the third time. His ERA is also a run lower at home.

 

Tillman is the exact opposite. He gets crushed to the tune of an .800 OPS first time through and gets stronger.

 

Its interesting because Stroman's walk and K numbers are actually better the 3rd time through. Its the HR rate that surges.

[Grant77]

Its interesting because Stroman's walk and K numbers are actually better the 3rd time through. Its the HR rate that surges.

 

The eye test certainly supports that. He gets a feeling of invincibility or something and starts pounding the middle of the zone with fastballs.

[BlueJayWay]

I would have started Liriano.

 

Regardless, I think the key to this game is getting to Tillman early and often. The offense is simply going to have to do its thing. You know they're going to throw that good bullpen out there after about the 5th inning, and I have to think Britton's going two innings at least.

[JoeCarter]

But they hit Liriano even harder career wise. I don't even like those numbers as it's 25 or so AB's instead of 10 but if you're going to use matchups like that might as well use the greater number.

 

And why are you so pissed about this? lol I'm not even saying that I'm absolutely right I just think Stroman is the better pick. Those that think Liriano is the better pick have an argument as well, more of a "hot hand" theory, but for either side to definitively say the other is wrong discounts how tough of a decision this really is.

 

Right. And -- though I know you know this, it's clear others don't: the so-called 'hot hand' theory is likely the single most thoroughly-debunked sports myth ever.

[ChrisS]

Its crazy how underrated Stroman is on this forum. I'd want him to start the wildcard game even if it didn't come down to between just him and Liriano, over Sanchez, Estrada and Happ.

 

No it isn't crazy. Nobody is saying he is bad pitcher but I find the casual fan thinks he is some kind of elite ace, which imo he isn't. Starting him over Sanchez would be a joke.

[BigCecil]

I would have started Liriano.

 

Regardless, I think the key to this game is getting to Tillman early and often. The offense is simply going to have to do its thing. You know they're going to throw that good bullpen out there after about the 5th inning, and I have to think Britton's going two innings at least.

 

Its all about the bats. We are 30th in runs in MLB in Sept ... that's not going to get you deep in the playoffs lol. Time to turn the page to Oct and have better ABs. We got this.

[Plat]

I hope the midget proves me wrong

[thatoneguy]

Shapiro- Paraphrasing here on Tim and Sid... " Himself, Atkins, Strength and Conditioning coaches, analytics dept, Walker, Johnson and ultimately Gibbons made the decision on Stroman. Liriano following Stroman, and he looks forward to working with Gibbons for years to come." Yada, yada...

 

There you have it.

 

This does tick me off, however. How can they watch this season and think he knows how to manage a bullpen?

 

The guy needs to be gone with anything less than an ALCS appearance (and frankly even then I still don't want him returning).

[Spanky99]

This does tick me off, however. How can they watch this season and think he knows how to manage a bullpen?

 

The guy needs to be gone with anything less than an ALCS appearance (and frankly even then I still don't want him returning).

 

Ask em... Sounds to me like he's safe. Well it depends on the off-season too, if they don't get it done as most people hope, he'll be their goat to slaughter in late May, early June, we'll see.

[TheHurl]

Stroman for exactly 13 batters. Take him out when they face Wieters and Davis the 2nd time around (unless 2 out and none on with a lead). Liriano comes in to force some good pinch hit decisions for Baltimore.

[THANOS]

The eye test certainly supports that. He gets a feeling of invincibility or something and starts pounding the middle of the zone with fastballs.

 

He starts trying to P2C even more (ie 0-2 2SM several times), to attempt to try and complete the game by minimizing his count, and pays for it.

[burlingtonbandit]

He starts trying to P2C even more (ie 0-2 2SM several times), to attempt to try and complete the game by minimizing his count, and pays for it.

 

f***, not this again...

[GD]

f***, not this again...

 

It never stopped

[admin]

Well let's look at Stroman's starts.

 

Apr 19: Held them to one run through 6 innings. Gave up two runs in the 7th and was pulled.

June 9: Gave up 3 runs in the first 5 innings. Allowed to pitch the 6th and gave up another run.

June 19: Just flat out got his tits lit. June 9th and this game cap a 10 day stretch where he was at his worst all season.

Sept 29: Threw 6 innings of two run ball. Gibby leaves him to pitch the 7th and he gives up a run. Gibby inexplicably leaves him in again for the 8th and he gave up a double and a single before finally being pulled.

 

If Gibby would just pull him after seeing the lineup two times he would have done much, much better against the O's. I presume that's the plan for tomorrow and then go to Liriano. If it's not I'll be rioting right there with you.

 

You know Gibby though, if Stroman is even someone 'okay' he will keep putting him in there until he's over his head. I just feel Liriano is the better option. Not that Stroman is bad, I just feel Liriano has been been more consistent already, and has already shut down the O's. The guy has a low 2 ERA in his last eight appearances with a low walk rate.

I'm sure Stroman will be fine though. I'm probably over reacting a bit!

[Terminator]

You know Gibby though, if Stroman is even someone 'okay' he will keep putting him in there until he's over his head. I just feel Liriano is the better option. Not that Stroman is bad, I just feel Liriano has been been more consistent already, and has already shut down the O's. The guy has a low 2 ERA in his last eight appearances with a low walk rate.

I'm sure Stroman will be fine though. I'm probably over reacting a bit!

 

Oh I know that's why Shatkins needs to read Gibby the riot act to make sure he takes Stroman out after twice through the lineup. If Gibby does his standard "let him pitch util he fails" ******** it will be a very unwise decision on both his part and the FO for not making it more clear.

[BlueRocky]

How about the offense just scores 8 runs in the first three innings and takes all the pressure off the pitching

[ILikeSoccerandBaseball09]

f*** i want to get the game over with, was more nervous about this game then game 5 last year.

[Spanky99]

Shapiro- Paraphrasing here on Tim and Sid... " Himself, Atkins, Strength and Conditioning coaches, analytics dept, Walker, Johnson and ultimately Gibbons made the decision on Stroman. Liriano following Stroman, and he looks forward to working with Gibbons for years to come." Yada, yada...

 

There you have it.

 

Oh I know that's why Shatkins needs to read Gibby the riot act to make sure he takes Stroman out after twice through the lineup. If Gibby does his standard "let him pitch util he fails" ******** it will be a very unwise decision on both his part and the FO for not making it more clear.

 

Shapiro said nothing about RP's, he said Liriano follows Stroman, I believe this is the plan. Said they'll worry about the LDS when the time comes.