JoeCarter

After Jays faded from playoff picture, I didn't think I'd be able to summon much in the way of a true rooting interest until next year, but I'll be damned if it's not surprisingly enjoyable to watch the Red Sox getting swept out of a 2nd consecutive ALDS. Knowing it's gonna dominate Boston sports radio and torment fans well into 2018 feels good. Really, really good. I was hoping to see Price get shellacked out of the bullpen, but in many ways it's even more satisfying seeing him pitch a few scoreless frames, then sit in the dugout sulking about his new role as long reliever.

So will Ryan Goins. Doesn't mean he'll get it.

This. And why it made a ton of good sense to trade him at this year's deadline. We could have netted a King's ransom making him available to a contender for 2 playoff pushes rather than just 1. My read on today's story about him approaching the front office whispering sweet nothings about his desire to stay with the Jays: he / his agent understand full well that teams are only getting smarter about evaluating the risks associated with signing players in their 30s to long-term deals. Beltre is a freak, and the outlier of all outliers. Recent history is awash with nothing but cautionary tales: Miggy, Victor Martinez, Pujols, Ellsbury, Chris Davis, Shields (and Price contract sure to look very gross very fast). Backing up the truck for anyone over 30 for 4+ years is just dumb, and when it goes South, it just buries you. JD sees the writing on the wall, and I think it's shrewd to play the Mr. Nice Guy card now: I'm sure he likes Toronto just fine and wouldn't say those things if he weren't comfortable finishing his career here...but I think he also realizes that going to FA may be leaving $20M - $40M on the table. A 31-year old nice hometown boy might just wrangle himself $160M/5...whereas the market in the 2018 offseason for a 3rd baseman who'll be 33 come Opening Day 2019 may not be all that robust, especially if he suffers any kind of dropoff or injury in 2018. What's his projected haul if he goes the FA route: $20M arbitration in 2018 and...what, $120M/4 at the upper end? There's no scenario where he doesn't put an extra $20M+ in his pocket by extending with the Jays now.

I simply thought about it like this: For me, 2015 still hurts. Not in an ever-present way that clouds my every waking moment. But when I force myself to think about it, I get down. My shoulders slouch and my breathing slows just a bit. Losing a chance to go to the WS because we slightly underperformed and they massively overperformed (and got measurably lucky) sucks. This year's elimination, while crummy, doesn't even bother me that much anymore, and any remaining malaise will go to zero within days of the WS ending. When something that happened a year ago is more painful than fresh wounds from just last week, questions like the one posed here basically answer themselves.

We were arguably the best team in baseball last year and lost to an inferior team because they got lucky in certain spots, and were the beneficiary of several questionable calls (strike 2 to Revere was criminal.) This year we limped to the finish line and were, candidly, the weakest of the LCS teams. "Frustrating" may be a misnomer, because after dispatching Baltimore and sweeping Odor + Co., and not having to face the Red Sox, it felt like everything was starting to go our way...which is why getting our butts kicked by the Tribe so soundly was ...I'd say more deflating than anything else. But we lost to a better team who played better baseball. No shame in that. No part of me felt like I could make a credible argument that we "deserved" to win that series. As far as sheer drop-me-to-my-knees kicks to the scrotum, though, last year AINEC. They whined. They overachieved. They got lucky. They got borderline calls. We were a better team. I was in a funk for a good month afterwards.

Is it weird to say that I actually have a lot more faith that we'll approach this decision rationally with Shapiro/Atkins calling the shots than with AA? Though their history with the Jays is short -- and who knows what really happens behind closed doors -- they strike me as level-headed and unemotional, whereas I wouldn't put it past AA to have said 'Whoa, Eddie: thanks for being such a bargain the last 5 years, here's a $120M/4 expression of our gratitude."

Lol at this idea that Gibbons is atrocious while Francona is some sort of Mensa warlock. Most baseball managers matter very little, and always have. Brain-farts that are universally criticized like Showalter not using Britton are very few and far between. There's an argument to be made that the value of a baseball manager's lineup and in-game decisions have substantially less importance than how he manages the team's clubhouse culture. Ask the Red Sox about the 2012 Bobby Valentine disaster. The 2015-2016 Jays have had a lot of big egos and big personalities. In many ways it's surprising that there haven't been more in-fighting, beefs, and controversies. Gibbons deserves credit for that. A very small group of managers probably do have actual, measurable proficiency and will likely succeed in improving any team they coach. Others are just a compatible manager for the right team at the right time. Gibbons is the latter. He's been fine.

Bauer had also been trolling Jays before this series even started. Not like this is boorish fans cheering a concussion or something. I'm all for sportsmanship, but I can't say I really have a problem with a few jeers being sent his way because he couldn't resist tinkering with his drone's flying blades before the biggest playoff series of his life.

Fans in the stadium have no clue what's going on. All they see is a starting pitcher coming out of the game after 2 outs. Even if they knew he had a finger issue going into the game, there's no way they know how bad it is / gross it looks. US broadcast are idiots for feeding the theory that the fans are cheering with full knowledge of how bad that injury is.

Bauer's served up several meatballs so far. Too bad he has to come out. Only a matter of time til we got a hold of one.

Are there any online feeds/streams of the Fan 590 radio channel? Couldn't find any. Can't stand the US broadcast.

Watching Red Sox get booed off their own field after getting swept will in many ways be more satisfying than vanquishing them in the ALCS.

Wat? No. What does "reliant" mean anyway? Ortiz is just one scary component of a lineup that is mostly terrifying from top to bottom. When he's bad (or gone), Sox are marginally worse, but still the best offense in baseball.

Added benefit to Indians going up 2-0 is that even if Boston comes back to win, they burn Porcello and Price in games 4/5 on Tues/Wed, meaning we may not see either of them until game 3 of the ALCS, though I have to imagine they'd pitch Porcello on 3 days rest for game 2 on Sat and then have Price on regular rest for game 3 on Monday. I guess ideal scenario is Indians winning in 5, because they'd burn Kluber in 5th game, meaning we wouldn't see him til game 3 of the ALCS. All the same, I'd be happy if Indians would just dispatch the Sox today since I hate the Boston matchup for us.

The one thing that's been all but ignored ITT: performance drop-off due to aging. I'd love to freeze EE and Jose in time, and imagine that we'll get early-30's performance from them both for 4 more years, but that's not how the human body works. Search for baseball aging curve, and read any of those articles. We've got excellent data from tens of thousands of players, and have even studied whether better players somehow defy the traditional aging curve that befalls lesser players (hint: they don't). EE and Jose are at the beginning of a very steep decline. Do you know WHY we currently have this window to win in the AL East? It's because NYY (and to a lesser extent BOS) ignored the irrefutable math, and signed a bunch of over-the-hill superstars to $200 Million / year in terrible contracts, apparently believing that simply donning pinstripes could exempt one from the laws of biology. That's precisely what our fate will be for 2018-2020 if we sign EE and Jose to 4 year contracts. They're all-time Blue Jays, both of them, absolutely deserving of a banner on the Level of Excellence. But signing them to long-term contracts at this juncture would not be prudent for the team's future. Signing ONE of them (preferably EE) to a 3-year deal (primarily as a DH, perhaps some 1B) is defensible. Signing both would be suicide.

Disagree strongly with any sort of future compensation for them having outperformed their previous contracts. There's only 1 word for that: charity. And we're not in that business. By all means, goose up a contract offer to recognize the value that comes with having a long-time "face" of the franchise, but understand that the only reason it's rational to do so is because of the future branding and marketing value it provides. Value is tangible. Charity is not.

8/240 feels kinda gross. JD's a very unique candidate, having broken out so "late", so not hitting unrestricted FA until age 33. Rather absurd to have gotten him in his prime for so cheap: 2015 (age 29) : $4.3M (8.7 WAR) 2016 (30): $11.7M (7.6 WAR) 2017 (31): $17M (est 7 WAR) 2018 (32): Arb - let's assume $20M (est 6 WAR) Barring injury, we'll have gotten like 29+ WAR for ~$53M. Just crazy. But I'm not a fan of paying for past performance, which is too bad for JD. I'm assuming your "8/240" contemplated buying out the 2 remaining arb years in '17 and '18...otherwise it would be absurd: we can't sign a guy through his age-40 season, we just can't. I'd like to see how this offseason shakes out w/ Jose + EE, take the temperature of next year's team, and if things don't look promising, we really should see what the trade market is for JD...the return we'd got for 1.5 season would dwarf what we'd got for a 2-month rental at the '18 deadline.

This poll is a de facto IQ test. If you somehow prefer we'd face Boston, you simply must be prioritizing something other than winning, and you should probably just go away forever.

It's a small risk, not a "pretty big" one. ALCS runs from Friday Oct 14th thru Sat Oct 22nd. I'd much rather take my chances and hope to avoid the extraordinarily unlikely Barney fluke injury early in Game 3 than make a shortsighted decision that will render Travis ineligible right through the ALCS. EE's played nearly 700 games at 3B, and Bautista nearly 400. I obv wouldn't feel great about either scenario, but we'd live. If Travis is truly day to day, as we're being told, it would be dumb to make him ineligible for the next 10 games just to have a defensive insurance policy in Goins.

Calls like this make have me convinced that the rules / standards for replay review need to be changed in baseball. Pillar nearly certainly beat that throw, and I don't even see an argument to the contrary. Equally clear, though, is that there simply wasn't enough video evidence to overturn if standard is "conclusiveness". Baseball should consider requiring the video replay official in NY to ignore the call on the field and simply use the video to make the call he thinks is more likely to be correct. (I can't take credit for this idea; a lot of baseball writers have been arguing for just this.) The human eye is amazingly inaccurate and incapable of "seeing" / measuring the hundredths of a second intervals, not to mention umpires can only be looking at the glove or bag at once, and so are too often relying on both clunky sight and sound. The more you think about it, the more absurd it seems. It's silly to rely on iron-clad, 100% "conclusiveness" when the original call is one that was made by relying on so flawed a process.

The quote some of u are thinking of is Atkins saying "I think what we're going to do is really try to work with Aaron to give this team the best chance to win," Atkins said. "We do have thresholds that would be uncomfortable. There's not a scenario where he pitches 220, 230 innings." - http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/atkins-blue-jays-sanchez-remaining-rotation-time/ Anyway, rotation probably fine. I'd rather start with Happ Game 1 so that we could potentially have Happ as an additional lefty out of the pen in Games 3, 4, or 5, but whatever. Showalter drove the pace-car for pitcher-management Fail so far ahead of the field that debating the merits of Happ>Estrada vs Estrada>Happ feels kinda inconsequential.

A mid-30s EE is probably good for 6-7 WARs over the next 3 years, which should probably be worth a $55M contract. Or maybe $70M over 4 if you're feeling generous. I know it's tempting to look at his last few years of 3.0-4.0 Win seasons and extrapolate out to OMG 4 YEARS = 12 WINS = SIGN THAT MAN TO 4 YR @ $100M!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!, but that's not really how it works. Getting old sucks. Nonetheless, we all know someone is going to grossly overpay for EE this offseason: I think he'll get ~ 4 and $90M. The real question is whether money not spent on EE would be spent elsewhere on payroll or whether Rogers would just pocket it, reasoning that the Red Sox are going to ride roughshod over the AL East for the next 5 years. I don't think he'll take a hometown discount, nor would I expect him to. He and Jose just played out two of the biggest bargain contracts in baseball history.

Rotation more or less sets itself this go-around. Thurs (4:30p): Happ/Estrada Fri (1p): Sanchez Sun (8p): Estrada/Happ Mon (TBD): Stroman Wed (TBD): Sanchez 2 Sanchez starts on regular rest, only decision is whether you want Stro for game 3 or 4; prob doesn't matter too much. I'd start Happ in Game 1, bc he can then be a valuable lefty out of the pen in any of games 3, 4, or 5. If Happ doesn't start til game 3, he realistically can only be used out of pen in game 5.

As good an outing from Stroman as anyone could have reasonably asked for. 6 K's, no walks. 2 of O's hits were reaching pokes, and they smoked a few balls right at our guys for outs. I'm fine leaving him in for Wieters, then get him out of there for Davis. Solid outing dude, f*** the haters.

Right. And -- though I know you know this, it's clear others don't: the so-called 'hot hand' theory is likely the single most thoroughly-debunked sports myth ever.