2016 regular season awards predictions

[BTS]

The heuristic they are using is not binary

 

it's something like - WAR * factor

 

Where the factor is between about 0.75 and 1.0 depending on team accomplishments. and "story"

 

So Trout's wins are .85 of Mookies (or something, I don't know exactly what it is),

 

Basically they are evaluating Trout as a 8 win player instead of 9... Donaldson is evaluated as 7.5

 

Bett's is probably an 8, because he's kind of new, and the red sox are the bounce back team...

 

please don't throw gasoline at me... I am not saying this is right or wrong.. just saying they are using a heuristic... it's not that Trout's wins don't matter, just that they matter a little less.

 

I don't think they're actually thinking like this at all. I think it's literally just "Trout was the best player, but he can't win so I'll put him second". I think we'll see this when almost nobody puts him 3rd behind Donaldson and Betts, even though there's no valid defense for putting one of Betts/Donaldson ahead of him and not the other. Any heuristic like what you suggest would result in Trout going either 1st or 3rd. Never 2nd.

[TheHurl]

Most Valuable Player and Player of the Year should be separate awards. The former can go to someone like Betts for being the most valuable on a good team and the latter to Trout for having the best individual season.

 

I've said this before. Having an award without giving direction to voters is great for baseball. It keeps people talking about baseball right through to the end of November.

[SweetSmellingChacin]

If I had a vote, it would go to Trout. However, I can't see him winning so I think Betts will get it.

 

There's an argument to be made that the most "valuable" player should always be on a contending team, I don't agree with that argument, but that doesn't mean that anyone who believes that is necessarily wrong.

 

If this is the case, Trout should be left off your ballot completely.

[Bobthe4th]

If this is the case, Trout should be left off your ballot completely.

 

Not necessarily, just because you don't put the same emphasis on one player's performance doesn't mean you completely discount them.

 

I'm also sure that if Trout had won the triple crown and hit 60 homers a lot of the people who prefer players on contending teams would have been convinced to vote for him.

 

Again, it's not a voting strategy I agree with, but I understand why someone could think that way.

[Dick_Pole]

Every year it's the same old thing. Mike Trout gets snubbed for the MVP award and members of this board blow a gasket over it. No one here gives two shits about Mike Trout since no one here personally knows him. It's all about the opportunity to rail against baseball writers for being dumb old hillbillies who don't accept advanced stats, or that MVP = triple crown winner no matter how bad the defense, or who have this strange hybrid definition of MVP = good player on a contending team. If you hate the system so much, go get a journalism degree, work your way up the ladder in a sports media outlet and in 10 years you'll get a vote.

 

Personally I hope Donaldson wins it because I'm an unabashed homer. But I doubt it'll be him after the last month so it'll be Trout or one of the evil Boston players, and I have absolutely no emotional attachment to either outcome.

[TheHurl]

Part of me wants Boston to sweep the AL awards just to watch Grant lose his s***. At least just once have Pedroia win the Roberto Clemente award.

[BigCecil]

The older I get the more I seem to appreciate team rewards more and individual less. I guess I lived through too many years where Doc and Roger CY's and Jose's HR titles were our only consolation prizes and gave us some reason to watch in Sept. Not to knock guys who do care about them, but I'm only interested in this team winning the WC and moving on. #FlagsFlyForever

[Grant77]

Part of me wants Boston to sweep the AL awards just to watch Grant lose his s***. At least just once have Pedroia win the Roberto Clemente award.

 

I've gotten used to systematic bias in MLB. It's there from the umpires to the voters to the commissioner, so nothing could surprise me.

[THANOS]

I don't think they're actually thinking like this at all. I think it's literally just "Trout was the best player, but he can't win so I'll put him second". I think we'll see this when almost nobody puts him 3rd behind Donaldson and Betts, even though there's no valid defense for putting one of Betts/Donaldson ahead of him and not the other. Any heuristic like what you suggest would result in Trout going either 1st or 3rd. Never 2nd.

 

The thought process will be Trout is the BPA but can't lead the Angels, Donaldson's good but he didn't hit .300 like Betts and we already gave him one last year.

 

That's the MLB Network take lol.

[Terminator]

Poor Mike Trout. This isn't like last year where it was close. He's miles ahead with Donaldson and Betts a distant second.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-actual-difference-between-mike-trout-and-mookie-betts/

 

Yeah I agree, if it's really close then tie going to the player playing in the pennant race makes sense. But to give the award to Betts simply because he has better teammates is ridiculous.

[Terminator]

The older I get the more I seem to appreciate team rewards more and individual less. I guess I lived through too many years where Doc and Roger CY's and Jose's HR titles were our only consolation prizes and gave us some reason to watch in Sept. Not to knock guys who do care about them, but I'm only interested in this team winning the WC and moving on. #FlagsFlyForever

 

Yeah the individual awards are just for fun but don't really mean as much. Donaldson's MVP last year means next to nothing compared to that AL East crown.

[GD]

should

 

MVP: Kris Bryant

Cy Young: Jose Fernandez

ROY: Corey Seager

Manager: Joe Madden

Comeback: Anthony Rendon

Hank Aaron: Daniel Murphy

Reliever: Kenley Jansen

 

MVP: Trout

Cy Young: Verlander

ROY: Fulmer

Manager: Terry Francona

Comeback: Hanley Ramirez

Hank Aaron: Trout

Reliever: Andrew Miller

[Filmstudy]

Dave Cameron (of all people) actually makes a very good point about the logical inconsistency of voters who don't put Trout 1st on their ballot. The only argument for Betts (who probably wins) over Trout is that Trout's wins don't matter. But in that case, it doesn't makes sense to give Trout a 2nd place vote, because Donaldson, Altuve, Machado, Lindor, Beltre etc... all contributed wins that 'matter more than Trout's'. Either Trout's wins have value, and you vote him #1, or they don't, and you leave him off your ballot. Anything else means you're not thinking very deeply about what you're doing.

 

This logic has been applied before. Cal Ripken received just a single 10th place vote in 1984 in a 10-WAR season. The champion Tigers' best player was Trammel at 6.7, but the MVP went to Hernandez (4.8 WAR). Here is the voting from that season:

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/awards/awards_1984.shtml

[Jonn]

Note: How I think it will be voted. Not what I actually want to see happen.

 

NL:

MVP: Kris Bryant

CY Young: Max Scherzer

ROTY: Corey Seager

Manager: Terry Collins

Hank Aaron: Daniel Murphy

Closer: Kenley Jansen

 

AL:

MVP: Mookie Betts

CY Young: Rick Porcello

ROTY: Michael Fulmer

Manager: John Farrell

Hank Aaron: David Ortiz

Closer: Zach Britton

Edited October 4, 2016 by Jonn

[Jonn]

At least Pillar will almost definitely win the Gold Glove this year.

 

Even if you lower the min innings to 800 to include Kiermaeier in the equation, Pillar has a higher UZR/150 than anyone in baseball

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=800&type=1&season=2016&month=0&season1=2016&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=24,d

 

Voters might not like 6 errors. I think Jackie Bradley Jr. takes home the hardware this year.

[Stangstag]

Voters might not like 6 errors. I think Jackie Bradley Jr. takes home the hardware this year.

 

Would be a f***ing joke if that happened. Pillar deserves it 1000%

[Olerud363]

I don't think they're actually thinking like this at all. I think it's literally just "Trout was the best player, but he can't win so I'll put him second". I think we'll see this when almost nobody puts him 3rd behind Donaldson and Betts, even though there's no valid defense for putting one of Betts/Donaldson ahead of him and not the other. Any heuristic like what you suggest would result in Trout going either 1st or 3rd. Never 2nd.

 

It's not exact... I know they're not like sitting there with a formula... well actually most of them aren't... On second thought I wouldn't be surprised if a couple of them do have a formule... even Greg Zaun apparently had a formula (not a good one).

 

If you trained a model against Wins and WAR I suspect WAR would be weighted about 80% and team wins 20%... or something in that range.

[Boxcar]

Yeah I agree, if it's really close then tie going to the player playing in the pennant race makes sense. But to give the award to Betts simply because he has better teammates is ridiculous.

 

I'm convinced that Jon Heyman has an IQ in the 70s.

[Dick_Pole]

This logic has been applied before. Cal Ripken received just a single 10th place vote in 1984 in a 10-WAR season. The champion Tigers' best player was Trammel at 6.7, but the MVP went to Hernandez (4.8 WAR). Here is the voting from that season:

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/awards/awards_1984.shtml

 

I like how 2 of the top 3 are relievers. Imagine if that happened nowadays.

[KingKat]

I like how 2 of the top 3 are relievers. Imagine if that happened nowadays.

 

Sometimes in the midst of all the negativity, it's good to be reminded that we've come a long way.

[Orgfiller]

I like how 2 of the top 3 are relievers. Imagine if that happened nowadays.

 

To be fair, relievers pitched an absurd amount of innings compared to today's relievers. Although lmao @ the 3rd place in MVP voting having 41 strikeouts in 129.1 IP.

[Angrioter]

MVP: Kris Bryant

CY Young: Max Scherzer

ROTY: Corey Seager

Manager: Joe Maddon

Hank Aaron: Daniel Murphy

Closer: Kenley Jansen

 

AL:

MVP: Mookie Betts

CY Young: Rick Porcello

ROTY: Michael Fulmer

Manager: Francona

Hank Aaron: Trout

Closer: Zach Britton

[TheHurl]

What I think will happen

 

Manager: John Farrell

 

Farrell didn't even get into the final 3. I'm betting there aren't a lot of managers who's teams improved by 15 games and won a Division who didn't even make top 3 in the Manager of the year. It was 5 division winners...and then Showalter.

[Boxcar]

I'm picking who I think SHOULD win.

 

AL

 

MVP: Mike Trout

Cy Young: Corey Kluber

ROY: Michael Fulmer

Manager: Terry Francona

Comeback: Devon Travis

Hank Aaron: Mike Trout

Reliever: Andrew Miller

 

NL

 

MVP: Kris Bryant

Cy Young: Jose Fernandez

ROY: Corey Seager

Manager: Dave Roberts

Comeback: Jose Fernandez

Hank Aaron: Joey Votto

Reliever: Kenley Jansen

[baseballsss]

I'm picking who I think SHOULD win.

 

AL

 

MVP: Mike Trout

Cy Young: Corey Kluber

ROY: Michael Fulmer

Manager: Terry Francona

Comeback: Devon Travis

Hank Aaron: Mike Trout

Reliever: Andrew Miller

 

NL

 

MVP: Kris Bryant

Cy Young: Jose Fernandez

ROY: Corey Seager

Manager: Dave Roberts

Comeback: Jose Fernandez

Hank Aaron: Joey Votto

Reliever: Kenley Jansen

 

Miller over Britton?

[Boxcar]

Miller over Britton?

 

Since he was the better of the two in my opinion, yes.

[Spanky99]

Since he was the better of the two in my opinion, yes.

 

Sent you a PM... dumn dumn!

[Spanky99]

Silver Slugger awards to be announced on MLB Network at 6 PM Est... EE and JD should pick one up.

[Spanky99]

JD wins SS award for 3B...

[King]

Sal Perez wins the AL Catcher silver slugger lol