GDT Orioles @ Blue Jays game 2/3

[Olerud363]

His velocity isn't down

 

Do you know that for sure?? There seemed to be a lot of 94s in the last few games he's been in. I recall him sitting at 96 previously... could be wrong on this. I don't have the stats in front of me.

[Stangstag]

Do you know that for sure?? There seemed to be a lot of 94s in the last few games he's been in. I recall him sitting at 96 previously... could be wrong on this. I don't have the stats in front of me.

 

I was at the game last night and saw a bunch of 95/96

 

EDIT: Brooks baseball shows an average fastball velocity of 96.2 MPH for Osuna last night. So it has nothing to do with velocity.

[Olerud363]

His velocity isn't down

 

For Osuna's career he has a 5.04 ERA, lower strikout rate, higher whip for September/October

 

He is significantly worse this month... SSS applies, his June is also bad (not as bad)...

[Stangstag]

For Osuna's career he has a 5.04 ERA, lower strikout rate, higher whip for September/October

 

He is significantly worse this month... SSS applies, his June is also bad (not as bad)...

 

Sure, maybe fatigue is making him less "sharp" and making him unable to hit his spots, but his velocity is not down like you keep saying

[Olerud363]

I was at the game last night and saw a bunch of 95/96

 

EDIT: Brooks baseball shows an average fastball velocity of 96.2 MPH for Osuna last night. So it has nothing to do with velocity.

 

I am honestly not sure how to interpret these numbers. But fangraphs has vFA of 95.2, and vFT of 94.2??

 

I assume they are measures of different types of fastballs

[Stangstag]

I am honestly not sure how to interpret these numbers. But fangraphs has vFA of 95.2, and vFT of 94.2??

 

I assume they are measures of different types of fastballs

 

4-seam and Cutter. Brooks has them separated: http://www.brooksbaseball.net/pfxVB/pfx.php?s_type=3&sp_type=1&batterX=0&year=2016&month=9&day=28&pitchSel=532077.xml&game=gid_2016_09_28_balmlb_tormlb_1/&prevGame=gid_2016_09_28_balmlb_tormlb_1/

[BTS]

I got several pms too, lol

 

You can't drop this and not post em' up.

[Boxcar]

You can't drop this and not post em' up.

 

Lol I don't see the harm I suppose

 

Are a true living pieve of s***, and I can't fathom ever breathing air beside you, douche. Yes, you are the prick you sought yourself becoming, *******.

This is sig worthy

Have at it ya f***ing snowflake.

You don't see the POS in you, always. You continue to do it although I asked you to stop. Can't hold the prick back in you, correct?

[Boxcar]

He f***ing rekt me with the first one. That was awesome.

[CJ-Freeway]

I couldn't comment on here last night, so I'm going to say it now: that HR by Kim was like getting stabbed in the heart.

[Stangstag]

I couldn't comment on here last night, so I'm going to say it now: that HR by Kim was like getting stabbed in the heart.

 

Props to him. He put up a great at-bat.

 

The worst part is how good Kim has been for the Os this year, and they were trying to find a loophole in his contract so they could send him back to Korea because he was so bad in spring training. f*** the orioles.

[BTS]

Yes, you are the prick you sought yourself becoming

[CJ-Freeway]

Props to him. He put up a great at-bat.

 

The worst part is how good Kim has been for the Os this year, and they were trying to find a loophole in his contract so they could send him back to Korea because he was so bad in spring training. f*** the orioles.

 

For sure, he maybe saved the O's season with that AB alone.

[intentional wok]

Osuna will also not be available tonight...

 

He ended pitching in four of 5 days, results and (maybe) velocity have been down lately. He may have pitched a bit better if he was fresher, we don't know.

 

Well I'm frankly not seeing how you can call for Barnes or Tepera on Tuesday without acknowledging the likelihood that these yo-yo RPs would have made trouble that Osuna would have needed to come clean up anyway with a higher chance of things going wrong. Risking a win to save Osuna's energy for the next day... energy that doesn't guarantee a clean save anyway.

 

If Tuesday was a 3-run game would Osuna have been acceptable? Seems like a stat-padding strategy to me. If any opponent forces you outside of the 3-run cutoff for closers, it's Baltimore.

 

Gibby played Tuesday fine. He even, mostly, played fine yesterday. I had my criticisms, but using Osuna wasn't one of them.

[Dick_Pole]

I actually feel a bit bad for Gibbons here.

 

He's had a very inconsistent bullpen for most of the year, and Cecil is now just starting to turn around (it seems).

 

It seems easy to give him grief for bringing in Osuna in a four-run game, however he saw his team as recently as a few days ago get blitzed in the 9th with Grilli, Barnes, etc., and I can see how he would be tempted to "ensure" the win against our closest competitor by going to Osuna (and hoping for an offensive breakout the next day).

 

For me, the biggest thing that bugs me about Gibbons is his claim that if he gets a guy warm, he has to bring him in. Except when that guy is Grilli. Or Cecil. Or anybody else other than Osuna.

 

If it were me managing, I probably would have gone with Cecil in game 1 and had Osuna warming, without committing to using him just because he was up.

 

That said, I also don't have the pressure of being the manager on a team trying to eke its way through a terrible September.

 

 

I don't feel bad for him. I don't dislike most of Gibbons moves within the bullpen, but I hate that he takes the starters out too early. Sanchez and Stroman I can understand. Trying to protect their arms. Liriano is a vet. 104 pitches. 10 K's through 6. He was killing it in that game. Let him get to 120 pitches to see if he can get into the 8th. I don't see the advantage to putting in Cecil in that situation over Liriano, although it worked out well so maybe it isn't the best example. But he did the same thing against New York. Liriano gets auto-pulled at 100 pitches and at the time the game was only 3-0. I pull my hair out at these instances. I hate to be that douche but if Liriano pitches into the 8th yesterday maybe Grilli doesn't get into the game and Osuna gives up a game-tying instead of game-winning home run? Yeah, Liriano could have easily s*** the bed after giving up two singles in the 7th but I find those instances to be less irritating.

[admin]

Lol no

 

You'd rather have Navarro? lol

The fact we are a playoff team and have Navarro as a pinch hitter is disgusting.

[King]

I wouldn't have had a problem with him being a bat off the bench for September. Projects for a 98 wRC+.

 

That's about it though.

[admin]

I wouldn't have had a problem with him being a bat off the bench for September. Projects for a 98 wRC+.

 

That's about it though.

 

I should have been more clear. I didn't mean he would look 'nice', but coudln't be worse than Navarro, is what I meant. .188/.257 as a jay

[King]

I still don't get why Girodo and Bolsinger aren't up, unless they are injured.

[Olerud363]

Well I'm frankly not seeing how you can call for Barnes or Tepera on Tuesday without acknowledging the likelihood that these yo-yo RPs would have made trouble that Osuna would have needed to come clean up anyway with a higher chance of things going wrong. Risking a win to save Osuna's energy for the next day... energy that doesn't guarantee a clean save anyway.

 

If Tuesday was a 3-run game would Osuna have been acceptable? Seems like a stat-padding strategy to me. If any opponent forces you outside of the 3-run cutoff for closers, it's Baltimore.

 

Gibby played Tuesday fine. He even, mostly, played fine yesterday. I had my criticisms, but using Osuna wasn't one of them.

 

The problem is a 4 run lead is a 98% win expectancy. Some argue the closer shouldn't even be used with a 3 run lead (instead use him in tie games etc.)

 

So if it is OK for Gibbons to use Osuna with 98% win expectancy, it should be OK for the negative nancies to panic with a 90% chance of playoffs.

 

JESUS CHRIST ON A CAROUSAL IT IS OVER!!!! OVER!! DONE

 

rational voice - they still have a 90% chance of playing in the wild card.

 

JESUS CHRIST A COUPLE OF GUArANTEED LOSSES AND THAT 90% CHANCE IS GONE BY TOMORROW NIGHT!!! f*** EVERYONE!

 

Saying that we have to acknowledge the likelihood of yo-yo RPs causing trouble is like saying we have to acknowldege the negative nancies because of the likelihood of a couple of losses today and tomorrow.

 

Couple of losses today and tomorrow and that 90% chance is way down!!! PANIC!!!!!

[intentional wok]

I wouldn't have had a problem with him being a bat off the bench for September. Projects for a 98 wRC+.

 

That's about it though.

 

I'm fine with him on the bench too. The problem with using Navarro is that it wasn't exactly the #9 slot hitter he was replacing -- it's that he was replacing a guy who couldn't be trusted to hit in that situation who was hitting #1 over Bautista or Tulo.

 

Like, Bautista successfully led off for a large portion of the year. With the season on the line, Gibby isn't willing to go back to that for a single game? It would even allow Tulo and Martin to move up FFS.

[Orgfiller]

I'm fine with him on the bench too. The problem with using Navarro is that it wasn't exactly the #9 slot hitter he was replacing -- it's that he was replacing a guy who couldn't be trusted to hit in that situation who was hitting #1 over Bautista or Tulo.

 

Like, Bautista successfully led off for a large portion of the year. With the season on the line, Gibby isn't willing to go back to that for a single game? It would even allow Tulo and Martin to move up FFS.

 

Yeah I don't know who exactly King is referring to, but Navarro doesn't project for a 98 wRC+, but rather 78 wRC+.

 

That's a terrible hitter and should only ever be pinch-hitting for the pitcher or I guess Ryan Goins/Josh Thole.

[admin]

Yeah I don't know who exactly King is referring to, but Navarro doesn't project for a 98 wRC+, but rather 78 wRC+.

 

That's a terrible hitter and should only ever be pinch-hitting for the pitcher or I guess Ryan Goins/Josh Thole.

 

Guessing he was referring to Montero.

[King]

Yeah I don't know who exactly King is referring to, but Navarro doesn't project for a 98 wRC+, but rather 78 wRC+.

 

That's a terrible hitter and should only ever be pinch-hitting for the pitcher or I guess Ryan Goins/Josh Thole.

Montero. That's what Stangstags "Lol no" post was to that admin replied to

[intentional wok]

The problem is a 4 run lead is a 98% win expectancy. Some argue the closer shouldn't even be used with a 3 run lead (instead use him in tie games etc.)

 

So if it is OK for Gibbons to use Osuna with 98% win expectancy, it should be OK for the negative nancies to panic with a 90% chance of playoffs.

 

JESUS CHRIST ON A CAROUSAL IT IS OVER!!!! OVER!! DONE

 

rational voice - they still have a 90% chance of playing in the wild card.

 

JESUS CHRIST A COUPLE OF GUArANTEED LOSSES AND THAT 90% CHANCE IS GONE BY TOMORROW NIGHT!!! f*** EVERYONE!

Saying that we have to acknowledge the likelihood of yo-yo RPs causing trouble is like saying we have to acknowldege the negative nancies because of the likelihood of a couple of losses today and tomorrow.

 

Couple of losses today and tomorrow and that 90% chance is way down!!! PANIC!!!!!

 

What is any of this?

 

If you don't agree that a yo-yo RP will cause trouble then you shouldn't be complaining about using Osuna in any particular situation. The win expectancy with a four-run lead drops if Tepera walks two guys to lead off the inning, which isn't a ridiculous proposition because he's awful, and then you have to use Osuna anyway to clean up the mess.

 

Expectancy for the Wild Card standings has way more variables and can't go wrong so quickly, but it isn't exactly stable either. I'm not comfortable with a "90%" Wild Card chance considering the Tigers get the Braves and the O's get the Yankees (and the Mariners get the A's FWIW) while the Jays get the Sox. That's why I think nailing down that 4-run lead was important, to get that win, and then deal with tomorrow as it comes. I'm not as confident in a playoff spot as you seem to think I am.

[Spanky99]

I should have been more clear. I didn't mean he would look 'nice', but coudln't be worse than Navarro, is what I meant. .188/.257 as a jay

 

Agreed, Navvy's s***.

[ChrisS]

The fact of the matter is if Gibby brings in someone else with a 4 run lead and we blow it, people would be irate and asking why he didnt bring in Osuna.

The offense barely showed up again last night, Zeke took his foot off the bag and that cost us the 3rd run. Upton came in to pinch hit and was s***, compare his at bat to Kims. Osuna and Grilli simply havent been able to get the job done so I dont care if we have to bring Happ out of the bullpen tonight to get some outs, they better win this game.

[Brownie19]

I don't feel bad for him. I don't dislike most of Gibbons moves within the bullpen, but I hate that he takes the starters out too early. Sanchez and Stroman I can understand. Trying to protect their arms. Liriano is a vet. 104 pitches. 10 K's through 6. He was killing it in that game. Let him get to 120 pitches to see if he can get into the 8th. I don't see the advantage to putting in Cecil in that situation over Liriano, although it worked out well so maybe it isn't the best example. But he did the same thing against New York. Liriano gets auto-pulled at 100 pitches and at the time the game was only 3-0. I pull my hair out at these instances. I hate to be that douche but if Liriano pitches into the 8th yesterday maybe Grilli doesn't get into the game and Osuna gives up a game-tying instead of game-winning home run? Yeah, Liriano could have easily s*** the bed after giving up two singles in the 7th but I find those instances to be less irritating.

 

I could be wrong - but I think Liriano has been horrible when facing the lineup the 3rd time through this year...

[Stangstag]

The fact of the matter is if Gibby brings in someone else with a 4 run lead and we blow it, people would be irate and asking why he didnt bring in Osuna.

The offense barely showed up again last night, Zeke took his foot off the bag and that cost us the 3rd run. Upton came in to pinch hit and was s***, compare his at bat to Kims. Osuna and Grilli simply havent been able to get the job done so I dont care if we have to bring Happ out of the bullpen tonight to get some outs, they better win this game.

 

You forgot to mention Bautista's bonehead baserunning error

[ChrisS]

I dont think he would have scored anyway, Zeke on the other hand would have