Devon Travis Stud Thread

[King]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/lets-prevent-the-inevitable-underrating-of-devon-travis/

 

Let’s peer into the future for a moment. The time: roughly one year from now. I’m hosting my weekly Tuesday chat, and a reader wants to know: who is the most underrated player in baseball? It’s a common question. It’s a question without an answer, but an answer everyone wants to know. Ben Zobrist’s time with the belt has come and gone. It’s no longer Jose Quintana — not after winning last year’s Cy Young Award. Another one of my go-to answers for this question is Mike Trout, and I might still believe that, but I know it’s not what the reader’s looking for. No, they want the star-not-perceived-as-a-star. The guy flying under the radar as one of baseball’s best at his position without the national recognition. They want what Zobrist was in his heyday. What they want is Devon Travis.

But they’re not going to get Travis as the answer to that question a year from now, because what I’m here to do now, in the present, is exactly what they don’t want you to do in any movie that involves time travel, like that one with Ashton Kutcher or any one of the dozen Final Destination films. I’m here to do something in the present that changes the future. I’m here to prevent Devon Travis from becoming the most underrated player in baseball, because he deserves to be recognized as one of the best second baseman in baseball already.

Travis checks all the boxes of a player doomed to be underrated. The first key of being overlooked as a major leaguer is to be overlooked as a minor leaguer. Check. Travis lasted until the 13th round of the 2012 draft, selected as the 424th pick between Phildrick Llewellyn and Alan Sharkey largely because teams were wary of his 5-foot-9 stature. By 2014, he’d worked his way up to cracking Baseball America’s top-100 prospect list, but even then came in at just 84th, and shortly thereafter was traded from Detroit to Toronto for Anthony Gose, whose own stock was rapidly plummeting.

Another key toward being underrated is being around for a little bit before completing a full season. We fall in love with the full-season stat line, even if two half-seasons with 300 plate appearances are the same-sized sample of one season with 600 plate appearances. Though there’s some logic behind the “need to see a full season” line of thinking — a full baseball season is a grind, and in Travis’ case specifically, a major and unorthodox shoulder operation is the reason behind his half seasons and ought not to be ignored — it can seem like sort of a cop-out for discounting a player for arbitrary endpoints.

The last key toward being underrated is perhaps the most important. It’s cost guys like Jim Edmonds and Kenny Lofton a fair crack at the Hall of Fame, and it’s probably even cost Mike Trout an MVP award or two. The all-around game is simply not appreciated by the public the way it’s appreciated by our statistical measures of player evaluation. We have a tendency to fall too in love with the eye-popping tools while we overlook the rare players who excel at every facet of the game, if not at an elite level. And Travis fits that mold to a T.

I suppose it’s about time we start getting into some numbers. The first question’s easy enough: how good has Devon Travis been? Let’s look at all the second basemen who’ve recorded at least 300 plate appearances since Travis entered the league in 2015 and put them on the same per-plate-appearance scale:

Top-Five Second Basemen, 2015-16, Per PA

[TABLE=class: sortable fg-table, width: 600]

[TR=class: table-header, bgcolor: #505050]

[TD=class: d3-th]Name[/TD]

[TD=class: d3-th]PA[/TD]

[TD=class: d3-th]AVG[/TD]

[TD=class: d3-th]OBP[/TD]

[TD=class: d3-th]SLG[/TD]

[TD=class: d3-th]ISO[/TD]

[TD=class: d3-th]BB%[/TD]

[TD=class: d3-th]K%[/TD]

[TD=class: d3-th]wRC+[/TD]

[TD=class: d3-th]BsR/600[/TD]

[TD=class: d3-th]Def/600[/TD]

[TD=class: d3-th]WAR/600[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR=class: table-rows, bgcolor: #FFFFFF]

[TD=class: d3-td, bgcolor: #FDC60D, align: left]Devon Travis[/TD]

[TD=class: d3-td, bgcolor: #FDC60D]487[/TD]

[TD=class: d3-td, bgcolor: #FDC60D].304[/TD]

[TD=class: d3-td, bgcolor: #FDC60D].351[/TD]

[TD=class: d3-td, bgcolor: #FDC60D].499[/TD]

[TD=class: d3-td, bgcolor: #FDC60D].195[/TD]

[TD=class: d3-td, bgcolor: #FDC60D]6.6%[/TD]

[TD=class: d3-td, bgcolor: #FDC60D]19.1%[/TD]

[TD=class: d3-td, bgcolor: #FDC60D]130[/TD]

[TD=class: d3-td, bgcolor: #FDC60D]3.8[/TD]

[TD=class: d3-td, bgcolor: #FDC60D]10.2[/TD]

[TD=class: d3-td, bgcolor: #FDC60D]5.8[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR=class: table-rows, bgcolor: #FFFFFF]

[TD=class: d3-td, align: left]Jose Altuve[/TD]

[TD=class: d3-td]1193[/TD]

[TD=class: d3-td].333[/TD]

[TD=class: d3-td].384[/TD]

[TD=class: d3-td].505[/TD]

[TD=class: d3-td].172[/TD]

[TD=class: d3-td]6.8%[/TD]

[TD=class: d3-td]9.7%[/TD]

[TD=class: d3-td]140[/TD]

[TD=class: d3-td]-2.1[/TD]

[TD=class: d3-td]3.3[/TD]

[TD=class: d3-td]5.2[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR=class: table-rows, bgcolor: #FFFFFF]

[TD=class: d3-td, align: left]Jason Kipnis[/TD]

[TD=class: d3-td]1117[/TD]

[TD=class: d3-td].295[/TD]

[TD=class: d3-td].360[/TD]

[TD=class: d3-td].468[/TD]

[TD=class: d3-td].174[/TD]

[TD=class: d3-td]8.6%[/TD]

[TD=class: d3-td]18.4%[/TD]

[TD=class: d3-td]126[/TD]

[TD=class: d3-td]2.3[/TD]

[TD=class: d3-td]6.6[/TD]

[TD=class: d3-td]4.9[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR=class: table-rows, bgcolor: #FFFFFF]

[TD=class: d3-td, align: left]Ian Kinsler[/TD]

[TD=class: d3-td]1171[/TD]

[TD=class: d3-td].296[/TD]

[TD=class: d3-td].345[/TD]

[TD=class: d3-td].455[/TD]

[TD=class: d3-td].159[/TD]

[TD=class: d3-td]6.3%[/TD]

[TD=class: d3-td]14.4%[/TD]

[TD=class: d3-td]117[/TD]

[TD=class: d3-td]2.7[/TD]

[TD=class: d3-td]7.3[/TD]

[TD=class: d3-td]4.4[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR=class: table-rows, bgcolor: #FFFFFF]

[TD=class: d3-td, align: left]Daniel Murphy[/TD]

[TD=class: d3-td]973[/TD]

[TD=class: d3-td].310[/TD]

[TD=class: d3-td].350[/TD]

[TD=class: d3-td].520[/TD]

[TD=class: d3-td].210[/TD]

[TD=class: d3-td]5.5%[/TD]

[TD=class: d3-td]8.4%[/TD]

[TD=class: d3-td]132[/TD]

[TD=class: d3-td]1.4[/TD]

[TD=class: d3-td]-2.6[/TD]

[TD=class: d3-td]4.3[/TD]

[/TR]

[/TABLE]

-Minimum 300 plate appearances

Now, of course this isn’t a fair comparison, because Travis has half the plate appearances or fewer than everyone on this list, meaning his numbers have to be regressed far more than the others. But still, we see what Travis has been. He’s been a top-five second baseman, offensively, and a top-five second baseman defensively. The base-running ranks in the top 10, as well. There are no apparent holes in Travis’ game. But again, these numbers have to be taken with a grain of salt, because of the sample. Projections are always better when we’re interested in estimating true-talent level, so let’s turn there.

Top-Five Second Basemen by the Projections

[TABLE=class: sortable fg-table, width: 600]

[TR=class: table-header, bgcolor: #505050]

[TD=class: d3-th]Name[/TD]

[TD=class: d3-th]PA[/TD]

[TD=class: d3-th]AVG[/TD]

[TD=class: d3-th]OBP[/TD]

[TD=class: d3-th]SLG[/TD]

[TD=class: d3-th]ISO[/TD]

[TD=class: d3-th]BB%[/TD]

[TD=class: d3-th]K%[/TD]

[TD=class: d3-th]HR[/TD]

[TD=class: d3-th]SB[/TD]

[TD=class: d3-th]wRC+[/TD]

[TD=class: d3-th]BsR[/TD]

[TD=class: d3-th]Fld[/TD]

[TD=class: d3-th]WAR[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR=class: table-rows, bgcolor: #FFFFFF]

[TD=class: d3-td, align: left]Jose Altuve[/TD]

[TD=class: d3-td]600[/TD]

[TD=class: d3-td].326[/TD]

[TD=class: d3-td].375[/TD]

[TD=class: d3-td].478[/TD]

[TD=class: d3-td].152[/TD]

[TD=class: d3-td]6.5%[/TD]

[TD=class: d3-td]9.7%[/TD]

[TD=class: d3-td]14[/TD]

[TD=class: d3-td]34[/TD]

[TD=class: d3-td]129[/TD]

[TD=class: d3-td]2.5[/TD]

[TD=class: d3-td]-1.7[/TD]

[TD=class: d3-td]4.5[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR=class: table-rows, bgcolor: #FFFFFF]

[TD=class: d3-td, align: left]Matt Carpenter[/TD]

[TD=class: d3-td]600[/TD]

[TD=class: d3-td].278[/TD]

[TD=class: d3-td].378[/TD]

[TD=class: d3-td].474[/TD]

[TD=class: d3-td].196[/TD]

[TD=class: d3-td]13.1%[/TD]

[TD=class: d3-td]18.3%[/TD]

[TD=class: d3-td]17[/TD]

[TD=class: d3-td]3[/TD]

[TD=class: d3-td]130[/TD]

[TD=class: d3-td]-1.3[/TD]

[TD=class: d3-td]-6.7[/TD]

[TD=class: d3-td]3.7[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR=class: table-rows, bgcolor: #FFFFFF]

[TD=class: d3-td, align: left]Ian Kinsler[/TD]

[TD=class: d3-td]600[/TD]

[TD=class: d3-td].284[/TD]

[TD=class: d3-td].333[/TD]

[TD=class: d3-td].440[/TD]

[TD=class: d3-td].156[/TD]

[TD=class: d3-td]6.1%[/TD]

[TD=class: d3-td]13.8%[/TD]

[TD=class: d3-td]15[/TD]

[TD=class: d3-td]12[/TD]

[TD=class: d3-td]107[/TD]

[TD=class: d3-td]0.6[/TD]

[TD=class: d3-td]6.0[/TD]

[TD=class: d3-td]3.6[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR=class: table-rows, bgcolor: #FFFFFF]

[TD=class: d3-td, bgcolor: #FDC60D, align: left]Devon Travis[/TD]

[TD=class: d3-td, bgcolor: #FDC60D]600[/TD]

[TD=class: d3-td, bgcolor: #FDC60D].278[/TD]

[TD=class: d3-td, bgcolor: #FDC60D].330[/TD]

[TD=class: d3-td, bgcolor: #FDC60D].459[/TD]

[TD=class: d3-td, bgcolor: #FDC60D].181[/TD]

[TD=class: d3-td, bgcolor: #FDC60D]6.6%[/TD]

[TD=class: d3-td, bgcolor: #FDC60D]18.1%[/TD]

[TD=class: d3-td, bgcolor: #FDC60D]20[/TD]

[TD=class: d3-td, bgcolor: #FDC60D]10[/TD]

[TD=class: d3-td, bgcolor: #FDC60D]110[/TD]

[TD=class: d3-td, bgcolor: #FDC60D]0.5[/TD]

[TD=class: d3-td, bgcolor: #FDC60D]4.5[/TD]

[TD=class: d3-td, bgcolor: #FDC60D]3.5[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR=class: table-rows, bgcolor: #FFFFFF]

[TD=class: d3-td, align: left]Robinson Cano[/TD]

[TD=class: d3-td]600[/TD]

[TD=class: d3-td].293[/TD]

[TD=class: d3-td].350[/TD]

[TD=class: d3-td].467[/TD]

[TD=class: d3-td].174[/TD]

[TD=class: d3-td]7.3%[/TD]

[TD=class: d3-td]13.8%[/TD]

[TD=class: d3-td]20[/TD]

[TD=class: d3-td]3[/TD]

[TD=class: d3-td]122[/TD]

[TD=class: d3-td]-0.9[/TD]

[TD=class: d3-td]-1.5[/TD]

[TD=class: d3-td]3.5[/TD]

[/TR]

[/TABLE]

SOURCE: ZiPS

That’s a bit more like it. Any ranking of second baseman in 2016 without Jose Altuve at the top will raise some eyebrows. After Altuve, though, there’s no clear indication of who’s next. Just missing from this table of five are guys like Kipnis (3.5 projected WAR per 600 PA), Neil Walker (3.4), Dustin Pedroia (3.2) and Zobrist (3.2). But the point is: what relatively little Travis has proven in his career thus far has already done enough to put himself squarely in the mix. Due to his all-around game, you could make the argument for Travis against any second basemen in the game, save for Altuve.

He hits the ball to all fields. He doesn’t have a weakness against a particular pitch; he’s one of just 24 batters since the start of last year to have produced at least 1.0 runs above average against fastballs, slider, curveballs and changeups, according to our PITCHf/x pitch type per-100 run values. He makes contact at an above-average rate while hitting for above-average power. While he’s not a prolific base-stealer, he’s been good at taking the extra base and great at avoiding double plays. Each of the three major defensive metrics agree that he’s been an above-average defensive second baseman. If there’s a hole to be found anywhere in Travis’ game, aside from the potential durability concerns, I can’t see it.

So let’s not get fooled again. Look past the size — that hasn’t stopped Altuve, Pedroia, or Mookie Betts from turning into stars. Forget the draft pick and prospect list snubbing — that’s all in the past. And don’t worry that Travis doesn’t have an elite tool — his impressively balanced skill set has helped him play like a six-win player since he entered the league and has him already looking like close to a four-win player moving forward. Devon Travis might have all the makings of baseball’s future most-underrated player, but we can keep that from happening by rating him properly from the get-go.

[Melvin]

What have you done King

[West Texas Forever]

Devon Travis is good at baseball.

[Jonn]

You changed your avatar so I'm not mad about this thread.

[G-Snarls]

What have you done King

 

Total jinx move

[Stangstag]

I can't believe you've done this King. Kiss of death. Season-ending injury incoming.

[GD]

Can Devon Travis stick?

[Captain Adama]

Can Devon Travis stick?

 

Devon Travis: Top 10 2B?

[Krylian]

I thought I was going to open this thread and see a picture of his dong.

[Jonn]

LF might be in his future.

[Stangstag]

LF might be in his future.

 

Dumn

[Jonn]

Dumn

 

Why is it dumb? Hes played some OF. His bat plays.

[saskjayfan]

Why is it dumb? Hes played some OF. His bat plays.

 

 

dumn

[Jonn]

dumn

 

dumb

[admin]

If ECJF says he likes him too, we're f***ed.

[Krylian]

LF might be in his future.

 

Why would you love him from 2B. It's a lot easier to find a LF than a 2B of his calibre.

[Jonn]

Why would you love him from 2B. It's a lot easier to find a LF than a 2B of his calibre.

 

Why would I love him from 2B? I was just trying to deflect the jinx that has now been placed on him by creating this ill advised thread.

[Krylian]

Why would I love him from 2B? I was just trying to deflect the jinx that has now been placed on him by creating this ill advised thread.

 

Move. f***ing autocorrect.

[wamco]

I thought I was going to open this thread and see a picture of his dong.

 

It did. Mods took it down. Better luck next time.

[KingKat]

Why would you love him from 2B. It's a lot easier to find a LF than a 2B of his calibre.

 

It wouldn't be easy to replace his bat at any position but he provides way more defensive value as a 2B. It would be absurd to move him away from 2B as long as he's average to above average defensively. So "in his future" could mean a long time from now unless you assume a rapid defensive decline. Not sure why Jonn is bringing it up though unless he's assuming a rapid decline which I don't think is reasonable as more than a hunch.

[Jonn]

It wouldn't be easy to replace his bat at any position but he provides way more defensive value as a 2B. It would be absurd to move him away from 2B as long as he's average to above average defensively. So "in his future" could mean a long time from now unless you assume a rapid defensive decline. Not sure why Jonn is bringing it up though unless he's assuming a rapid decline which I don't think is reasonable as more than a hunch.

 

I was more so just mocking the people that have criticized his defence in recent days in the GDT's. Not much to read into it. I think Travis is more than fine at second base. All defenders have bad weeks. I'm pretty sure all of Tulo's errors came in a 2 week span. Most of them anyway.

 

Second Base has been such a black hole on this team its nice to have talent at the position.

[rancher]

Travis is one of very few who is a pleasure to watch whether playing defense or at bat. He enjoys what he does and transmits that enjoyment to the spectator. That is what the game is supposed to do and Travis is contributing 100%. For that I rate him at the very top.

[reedjohnsonfan]

Travis is one of very few who is a pleasure to watch whether playing defense or at bat. He enjoys what he does and transmits that enjoyment to the spectator. That is what the game is supposed to do and Travis is contributing 100%. For that I rate him at the very top.

 

I agree. He is one of the most enjoyable players to watch. He is humble and works hard and doesn't whine when he is playing poorly or gets a bad call. Plus he has a great, sensible approach at the plate for a young player.

[RealAccountant]

Where is that kid Goins

[Iggy]

Travis is one of very few who is a pleasure to watch whether playing defense or at bat. He enjoys what he does and transmits that enjoyment to the spectator. That is what the game is supposed to do and Travis is contributing 100%. For that I rate him at the very top.

 

Totally agree ...

 

I wish he would have been healthy last year. Jays might have beaten Royals if Travis was in the line-up

[flafson]

Where is that kid Goins

 

He will come back, don't worry.

[RealAccountant]

The great bobcat wanted to trade Travis for a reliever

 

Could we get a reliever for Travis lmao

[Iggy]

The great bobcat wanted to trade Travis for a reliever

 

Could we get a reliever for Travis lmao

 

I remember listening to PrimeTime that day.

 

The next day McGowan suggested trading Travis (his reasoning being the Jays had lots of depth at middle infield - Goins + Barney ?) for a 4th/5th starter and was surprised when Shulman did not agree with him. Shulman said if the Jays really wanted to get a 4th/5th starter he would prefer to trade some prospects rather than Travis.

 

I don't think McGowan realizes that Goins is a AAA player and Barney is a bench player who can fill in for starters to give them a day off

[HERPDERP]

McCown

[L54]

I remember listening to PrimeTime that day.

 

The next day McGowan suggested trading Travis (his reasoning being the Jays had lots of depth at middle infield - Goins + Barney ?) for a 4th/5th starter and was surprised when Shulman did not agree with him. Shulman said if the Jays really wanted to get a 4th/5th starter he would prefer to trade some prospects rather than Travis.

 

I don't think McGowan realizes that Goins is a AAA player and Barney is a bench player who can fill in for starters to give them a day off

 

What a clown that guy is.