Jays the front runners for Melvin Upton

[nmrch]

Smoak is replacement level, and Bautista and Saunders are s*** fielders. Upton is probably just as good a hitter as Smoak but plays a solid OF, which means they can move Bats and MS to DH. Improves the defense tremendously and does nothing to the offense, maybe even improves it since at least Upton can run a bit.

 

This would be an upgrade for 2016, no question. Depends what is given up though. Better not be a good prospect, and I suspect it won't be.

 

Smoak is projected for a 98 wRC+, Upton is at 84 wRC+, that's nowhere close to "almost as good as". And Smoak is useless because he can't play a position, Upton is useless because his bat isn't good enough.

 

People are only looking at the last few hundred plate appearances with Upton and overestimating his ability. His track record is not good, nor will his mediocre defence make up for unreliable bat.

[Grant77]

I hear you on Upton but couldn't Pompey do those same things?

 

They will both be doing their thing in 2017 if we decide to let JB and Saunders walk. That's what this move is about, it's the same reason they targeted Bruce.

[burlingtonbandit]

Yeah his SLG is projected to be a tad higher and his ISO a lot higher.

 

All the reports say Pompey's defense still isn't that great either. Perhaps his reads have improved since then but who knows.

[nmrch]

Upton has been solid for two seasons now. 3.1 WAR in ~600 PA over 2015 and 2016.

 

He's an ideal 4th outfielder. Pinch hit option with real pop, decent defense, good pinch running option, veteran.

 

recency bias, he was also one of the worst players in baseball two years running in 2013 and 2014, he could easily revert back to that. Not a whole lot about his game and profile as a hitter have actually changed.

[nmrch]

Pompey looks like he's going to hit like Kevin Pillar, and I don't think his defence is good enough for that to play on a corner. Upton looks like he can bring a league average bat and plus defense to a corner spot.

 

I think this is a good example of fans trying to talk themselves into a bad deal because they like the management in question. Upton by the only objective metrics we possess(projections) would be a terrible investment of money, let alone a prospect and yet we're trying to make ourselves feel better with cherry picked stats.

[Terminator]

Ok fine you guys convinced me. I'm on board if they pay some salary and we don't give much up. With our corner OFs Free Agents at the end of the year we'll need someone anyway and there isn't much in FA.

 

Let's hope his 2015 and 2016 are for real and his 2013 and 2014 were flukes. 2017 is a FA year so he'll come in motivated if that makes any difference.

[Laika]

recency bias, he was also one of the worst players in baseball two years running in 2013 and 2014, he could easily revert back to that. Not a whole lot about his game and profile as a hitter have actually changed.

 

And then before THAT, he was consistently above average for like six straight years, with a broad skill set.

Not much has really changed about his game ever. Strikeouts, power, speed, defense.

 

It's really not recency bias. In baseball, you need to weight the most recent information more heavily. Any projection system would.

 

We need to see the deal before passing judgment. If it's Upton at full salary, or near full salary, I don't like it at all.

[Maahfaace]

High k% low obp guys with SB speed, average d and occasional pop are the worst deceivers of WAR out there.

[Terminator]

And then before THAT, he was consistently above average for like six straight years, with a broad skill set.

Not much has really changed about his game ever. Strikeouts, power, speed, defense.

 

It's really not recency bias. In baseball, you need to weight the most recent information more heavily. Any projection system would.

 

Why do you think he sucked so bad those two years?

[Laika]

Why do you think he sucked so bad those two years?

 

Probably an identity crisis. He was a Melvin trapped in a BJ's body.

 

Atlanta is a cesspool of an organization these days.

Maybe weird psychological things with the expectations him and his brother had.

 

Maybe just random flux.

[BTS]

I think this is a good example of fans trying to talk themselves into a bad deal because they like the management in question. Upton by the only objective metrics we possess(projections) would be a terrible investment of money, let alone a prospect and yet we're trying to make ourselves feel better with cherry picked stats.

 

I think you're full of s*** given that I've been pretty willing to criticize decisions I didn't like.

[nmrch]

And then before THAT, he was consistently above average for like six straight years, with a broad skill set.

Not much has really changed about his game ever. Strikeouts, power, speed, defense.

 

It's really not recency bias. In baseball, you need to weight the most recent information more heavily. Any projection system would.

 

Except i have been citing projections from the beginning, which agree with me, even if you heavily weigh the last 2 years the outlook moving forward doesn't look good at all.

[BTS]

High k% low obp guys with SB speed, average d and occasional pop are the worst deceivers of WAR out there.

 

Oh?

[Terminator]

High k% low obp guys with SB speed, average d and occasional pop are the worst deceivers of WAR out there.

 

How so?

[nmrch]

Left Fielders

 

Gregor Blanco (33)

Yoenis Cespedes (31) — can opt out of remaining two years, $47.5MM on current contract

Chris Coghlan (32)

Coco Crisp (37) — $13MM vesting/club option with a $750K buyout

Rajai Davis (35)

Alejandro De Aza (33)

Ian Desmond (31)

Craig Gentry (33)

Matt Holliday (37) — $17MM club/vesting option with $1MM buyout

Brandon Moss (33)

Daniel Nava (34)

Angel Pagan (35)

Ryan Raburn (36)

Colby Rasmus (30)

Michael Saunders (30)

Eric Thames (30)

 

Center Fielders

 

Michael Bourn (34)

Yoenis Cespedes (31) — can opt out of remaining two years, $47.5MM on current contract

Coco Crisp (37) — $13MM vesting/club option with a $750K buyout

Rajai Davis (35)

Ian Desmond (31)

Dexter Fowler (31) — $9MM mutual option with a $5MM buyout

Carlos Gomez (31)

Austin Jackson (30)

Jon Jay (32)

Cameron Maybin (30) — $9MM club option with a $1MM buyout

Drew Stubbs (32)

 

Right Fielders

 

Gregor Blanco (33)

Peter Bourjos (30)

Marlon Byrd (39)

Jose Bautista (36)

Carlos Beltran (39)

Jay Bruce (30) — $13MM club option with a $1MM buyout

Franklin Gutierrez (34)

Matt Joyce (32)

Daniel Nava (34)

Josh Reddick (30)

Seth Smith (34) — $7MM club option with a $250K buyout

Ichiro Suzuki (43) – $2MM club option

Mark Trumbo (31)

 

There's probably atleast half a dozen guys here who you could get on 1 year/short term deals who are also better players than that useless f*** Upton.

[Laika]

Except i have been citing projections from the beginning, which agree with me, even if you heavily weigh the last 2 years the outlook moving forward doesn't look good at all.

 

It's not like the outlook is terrible. His projections are fine for a bench bat. So the move would be fine as long as they are paying bench bat salary.

[nmrch]

How so?

 

His K% is only a couple of points aways from that threshold(30%, varies depending on how many walks you draw and how much power you hti for) where you can't be a decent offensive contributor. Given his current walk rate and power, it won't take take that many more K's for him to revert back to 2013-2014 levels of awfulness. This is not a guy you can rely on.

[baubau]

We'll know tomorrow gents, per heyman

 

 

"Jays appear to have moved in front for melvin Upton Jr. O's running 2nd. SD expected to make call tomorrow. @Ken_Rosenthal"

[nmrch]

It's not like the outlook is terrible. His projections are fine for a bench bat. So the move would be fine as long as they are paying bench bat salary.

 

If the Padres are paying 90% of his salary and we're looking at him as a bench bat then yeah there's nothing to get too mad about but other people here seem to want him to start and the Padres are not gonna eat that much salary.

 

The projections have him at ~0.8 WAR/162 games moving forward and he's owed $25 million over a season and a half. Like Smoak, why are we even talking about investing in fringe guys like this.

[John_Havok]

There's probably atleast half a dozen guys here who you could get on 1 year/short term deals who are also better players than that useless f*** Upton.

 

And those 1 year short term del would still be in the 8-10 million range for anyone competant. If you can get the Padres to eat 6-8 million of next year's salary and only give up some clown prospect, I'd say that's bettr than running the risk of free agency where there are no guarantees. Sometimes, getting a guy in trade is the better way to go if you're concerned about limiting risk and uncertainty in the FA market and have no guarantee you're going to get who you want.

 

Also, there's probably a few guys on that list that will somehow be offered a QO and turn it down, which means you're giving up a top pick and cash potentially. Obviously a C level prospect and cash would be better to give up than your first round pick and cash if you trust yourselves enough not to end up with a scrub with your first round pick.

[Laika]

Like Smoak, why are we even talking about investing in fringe guys like this.

 

That's a decent question. I wish I knew.

 

Wishful thinking is that the grandmaster plan is about focusing capital on an Edwin extension.

[thatoneguy]

I sense disdain for Shatkins is rising lol.

[nmrch]

That's a decent question. I wish I knew.

 

Wishful thinking is that the grandmaster plan is about focusing capital on an Edwin extension.

 

I sense disdain for Shatkins is rising lol.

 

Honestly, i was always skeptical of AA's shortsightedness and not at all sad to see him go, and was so excited about Shapiro. However, the moves under his watch have been pretty poor. I like the fact that he's strengthened the front office and made investments in things like player performance and psych science but actual baseball moves have been pretty bad or just meh at best. I can't think of a single move that made me go "f*** Yeah!, that makes sense"

[John_Havok]

Honestly, i was always skeptical of AA's shortsightedness and not at all sad to see him go, and was so excited about Shapiro. However, the moves under his watch have been pretty poor. I like the fact that he's strengthened the front office and made investments in things like player performance and psych science but actual baseball moves have been pretty bad or just meh at best. I can't think of a single move that made me go "f*** Yeah!, that makes sense"

 

He did get Grilli for free...

[nmrch]

He did get Grilli for free...

 

You're right, lets see if he can keep this up, it is only 17 IP after all but if he or Atkins really did see something in Grilli then they should deserve credit.

[Terminator]

There's probably atleast half a dozen guys here who you could get on 1 year/short term deals who are also better players than that useless f*** Upton.

 

Let's say Upton costs us a C prospect or two and they pay some of his salary. Who on that list would be better for 10-12 million?

[Lil Looper]

BJ or melvin or whatever the f*** you want to call him is the kind of player I enjoy at the beginning on their career because of their potential but i loathe later on with their high K% and low OBP

 

Lets ride this season out and see what happens with saunders and bau. I can live without upton and would rather part of his salary finance either baus or saunders salary from their new deal.

 

Its just not a need right now. We are going for it THIS year. We need bullpen pieces not upton.

 

Shapiro and his rogers goons better not f*** this up.

[burlingtonbandit]

Considering he's pretty crappy vs RHP I would think Upton would only be a 4th OF for this team. He'd play LF vs LHP while Saunders or Bautista DH vs Lefties. Unless SD is eating a ton of salary and its a marginal prospect going back I don't think I would like the move.

[Terminator]

You're right, lets see if he can keep this up, it is only 17 IP after all but if he or Atkins really did see something in Grilli then they should deserve credit.

 

They haven't really made any bold moves yet but you could argue that after AA it was for the best. They've made a lot of mid to smaller moves that have worked out really well thus far.

 

Resigning Estrada. The Happ signing looks pretty good, especially if they've identified an xFIP beater. Bringing back Barney and giving him a big league job looks pretty nifty. Tendering Saunders. Donaldson extension is going to save some money.

[nmrch]

Let's say Upton costs us a C prospect or two and they pay some of his salary. Who on that list would be better for 10-12 million?

 

Like i pointed out before, the projections have him at 0.8 WAR/162 moving forward

 

I think all of these guys would be better buck for the money as short term investments than wasting $15 million pn Upton, assuming Padres eat $10 million, which i'm pretty skeptical of. I haven't included a few guys whose options might be picked up. And at a higher AAV you could get guys like Moss and Fowler on a 1 year or 2 year deal that would bring more value than Upton.

 

Rajai Davis

Austin Jackson

Jon Jay

Matt Joyce

Seth Smith

Franklin Gutierrez

Edited July 26, 2016 by nmrch