General 2016 Blue Jays discussion thread

[burlingtonbandit]

Better than Italy dude, lake and Carrera combined

 

Not better than Carrera.

[KingKat]

Lake is just a place holder for Carrera anyways right?

[Captain Adama]

Lake is just a place holder for Carrera anyways right?

 

Oh that sounds depressing.

[wamco]

I'm gonna go with he's been pretty s*** and Gibby's giving him a day to hopefully clear his head.

 

Bang on as always

[Maahfaace]

Wooot first place!

[BigCecil]

Watched the Jays take care of the Rays 7-0 and then stayed up until the 6th with the O's vs A's with them up 1-0. Couldn't stay up.

 

This am carefully open my score app very first thing I did...1-0! First place. Feels good. O's Hangout must be losing it over their lack of offense vs A's.

[Grant77]

http://www.baseballmusings.com/cgi-bin/CyYoungTracker.py

 

Happ is now the AL Cy Young leader according to Tom Tango.

[BTS]

http://www.baseballmusings.com/cgi-bin/CyYoungTracker.py

 

Happ is now the AL Cy Young leader according to Tom Tango.

 

It's too bad for him that they're going with a 6-man rotation. Would be fun to see him get 33-34 starts and possibly get to 22-23 wins.

[G-Snarls]

It's too bad for him that they're going with a 6-man rotation. Would be fun to see him get 33-34 starts and possibly get to 22-23 wins.

 

I don't think it'll last more than 2-3 weeks

 

Plus all these off days

 

I think either Liriano or Dickey will pitch himself out of the rotation by Septemberr and only get back in if someone gets hurt.

[G-Snarls]

Does anyone think Gibby cares enough about Dickey's feelings to not put him in the pen in September or leave him off the post season roster entirely?

 

FTR I think it's more likely Liriano pitches his way to the pen.

[Angrioter]

It's too bad for him that they're going with a 6-man rotation. Would be fun to see him get 33-34 starts and possibly get to 22-23 wins.

 

Can we trade Happ after win the Cy Young this offseason for a package like Dickey was traded?

 

Maybe the dBacks?

[jays_fever]

It's too bad for him that they're going with a 6-man rotation. Would be fun to see him get 33-34 starts and possibly get to 22-23 wins.

 

Seems like just yesterday everyone couldnt wait for Gascan Happ to be gone

[G-Snarls]

Probably not. Like Buerhle. He wasn't pitching well and they had zero problem leaving him off the post season roster. And no one is more "veteran" than Buerhle was.

[G-Snarls]

Seems like just yesterday everyone couldnt wait for Gascan Happ to be gone

 

Yeah. A lot has changed in 3 years.

[G-Snarls]

Can we trade Happ after win the Cy Young this offseason for a package like Dickey was traded?

 

Maybe the dBacks?

 

I dunno. He's been this good or close to it for multiple years in a row now. And he's on what now looks like a very reasonable contract. I wouldn't trade him this off season. At the trade deadline 2017 or 2018 if we're not in contention, yes.

Edited August 11, 2016 by G-Snarls

[Governator]

So I'd like to discuss xFIP & ERA again. Not to debate the difference between them but for the past few years I've looked at xFIP stats to evaluate player's expectations going forward. Has your thoughts changed at all when seeing Sanchez / Estrada / Happ near the top of the league's lowest ERA and what you expect from them the next 2 months?

 

ERA-FIP

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=sta&lg=all&qual=0&type=c,4,5,11,7,8,13,-1,36,37,40,43,44,48,51,-1,6,45,62,-1,59,117,119,124&season=2016&month=0&season1=2016&ind=0&team=14&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=21,d

 

I can't help but notice 6 of 7 who have started for us this year have been exceeding their FIP, some by a large margain. By saying Stroman has pitched much better than his stats suggest based on xFIP what does that say about everyone else? I'm not trying to create an ERA vs FIP debate that's kind of a waste of time but just the fact that collectively we have been outstanding this year in results from our rotation is something that can't be overlooked. Is it going to come crashing back to earth down the stretch or are they are all FIP beaters?

[HERPDERP]

So I'd like to discuss xFIP & ERA again. Not to debate the difference between them but for the past few years I've looked at xFIP stats to evaluate player's expectations going forward. Has your thoughts changed at all when seeing Sanchez / Estrada / Happ near the top of the league's lowest ERA and what you expect from them the next 2 months?

 

ERA-FIP

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=sta&lg=all&qual=0&type=c,4,5,11,7,8,13,-1,36,37,40,43,44,48,51,-1,6,45,62,-1,59,117,119,124&season=2016&month=0&season1=2016&ind=0&team=14&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=21,d

 

I can't help but notice 6 of 7 who have started for us this year have been exceeding their FIP, some by a large margain. By saying Stroman has pitched much better than his stats suggest based on xFIP what does that say about everyone else? I'm not trying to create an ERA vs FIP debate that's kind of a waste of time but just the fact that collectively we have been outstanding this year in results from our rotation is something that can't be overlooked. Is it going to come crashing back to earth down the stretch or are they are all FIP beaters?

 

I've been waiting for Estrada to crash to earth since last year. Hell I've been expecting Estrada to break home run records (didn't he give up 30 in Milwaukee?)

 

Yet here we are...

[BTS]

So I'd like to discuss xFIP & ERA again. Not to debate the difference between them but for the past few years I've looked at xFIP stats to evaluate player's expectations going forward. Has your thoughts changed at all when seeing Sanchez / Estrada / Happ near the top of the league's lowest ERA and what you expect from them the next 2 months?

 

ERA-FIP

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=sta&lg=all&qual=0&type=c,4,5,11,7,8,13,-1,36,37,40,43,44,48,51,-1,6,45,62,-1,59,117,119,124&season=2016&month=0&season1=2016&ind=0&team=14&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=21,d

 

I can't help but notice 6 of 7 who have started for us this year have been exceeding their FIP, some by a large margain. By saying Stroman has pitched much better than his stats suggest based on xFIP what does that say about everyone else? I'm not trying to create an ERA vs FIP debate that's kind of a waste of time but just the fact that collectively we have been outstanding this year in results from our rotation is something that can't be overlooked. Is it going to come crashing back to earth down the stretch or are they are all FIP beaters?

 

Team ERA is 3.76 with a 3.96 xFIP, which is a normal discrepancy. I buy Dickey (knuckleballer) and Estrada (elite changeup, high fastball that yields flies in the 'donut hole') as xFIP beaters, though not Estrada to the extent that he has. Two of probably fewer than 10 guys in the league I'd be comfortable making that claim for (Odorizzi, Wright, Ziegler, Clippard etc...). Would have said Keuchel last year too because of his defense, but contact has been harder against him this year.

 

I haven't seen compelling evidence that Happ should be expected to beat his xFIP going forward.

[BlueJaysGirl]

It looked bad. People were killing him for the throw. I was shocked he stayed in the game. He litterally fell down to the turf in agony.

 

In a weird way this may work out for us. Bautista takes QO. Resign Edwin to something similar Cespedes got and let Saunders walk unless he accepts the QO as well.

 

I think this injury, and his rotten season, almost guarantees he takes the QO. He'd be an awesome DH on this team going forward, and a backup 1B/OF in a pinch.

 

Do you really think we have a sniff at EE? Our dedicated payroll for next year is already $100M. With JB's QO of ~ $15.5 how is that possible?

[fatcowxlive]

Just wanted to point out wow what a tough schedule for the Orioles. Today they're finishing the series against the A's (after dropping 3 straight against them) then they face:

 

San Francisco @ AT&T Park

Boston @ Home

Astros @ Home

2 games vs. Nationals @ Home then 2 more in Nationals park

 

So while their record is really great at home, they play 5 games away in NL parks against league leaders and play Boston at home who's always a fight... Astros might be the only break they get before playing the Yanks and we go and visit them right after

[RealAccountant]

Jays should try and convince Bautista to take a three year deal with us as a primarily DH type. He can extend his career and we can extend our window

[Bobthe4th]

The recent series have shown that even an elite offence can slow down, pitching that gives you a chance to win most games makes a bigger difference IMO. Still think division finishes with Orioles in 3rd, hopefully the difficult run of fixtures costs them.

[G-Snarls]

I think this injury, and his rotten season, almost guarantees he takes the QO. He'd be an awesome DH on this team going forward, and a backup 1B/OF in a pinch.

 

Do you really think we have a sniff at EE? Our dedicated payroll for next year is already $100M. With JB's QO of ~ $15.5 how is that possible?

 

I think it's projected to be 16.7M

 

And yes the team could afford to pay Edwin 20-25M a season if we keep Bautista at that cost. But they might get outbid on years. And some team still might gamble and give Bautista 3+ years.

[G-Snarls]

That QO figure is really starting to get scary for some teams.

 

Yankees , Dodgers, Red Sox, etc don't GAF. But it's supposed to be there to help the poorer teams. Oakland and Tampa and Minnesota etc are probably at the point they're scared to offer it to potential free agents for fear of it getting accepted and f***ing their payroll.

 

Also, players are finally starting to occasionally accept them, something that didn't happen the first few years. It used to feel like an almost empty threat but not anymore. GM's really value those compensation picks.

 

The system needs to change over the next few years.

[Iggy]

Jays should try and convince Bautista to take a three year deal with us as a primarily DH type. He can extend his career and we can extend our window

 

I would rather sign Encarnacion to a 3 or 4 year deal ...

 

Pretty sure the Jays will not want to or can afford to sign both to long term (3 years or more) deals ... BUT I would offer Bautista a QO (maybe he would accept but I doubt it)

[G-Snarls]

I would rather sign Encarnacion ...

 

Pretty sure the Jays will not want to or can afford to sign both to long term deals ... BUT I would offer Bautista a QO (maybe he would accept but I doubt it)

 

Agree on all counts

 

Both will get qualifying offers. That's a no brainier

 

Then we'll see what happens

[G-Snarls]

Unfortunately, Dickey and Saunders probably won't be worthy of offering qualifying offers. It'll probably just be EE and Bautista.

[Bobthe4th]

Agree on all counts

 

Both will get qualifying offers. That's a no brainier

 

Then we'll see what happens

 

Offer both QO, and Eddie 3 years at around $20m average, and if that's not enough for either then say thanks and goodbye. Think Bautista prob rejects due to his ego, and Eddie will prob get a bigger offer from someone like the Tigers.

[Governator]

Team ERA is 3.76 with a 3.96 xFIP, which is a normal discrepancy. I buy Dickey (knuckleballer) and Estrada (elite changeup, high fastball that yields flies in the 'donut hole') as xFIP beaters, though not Estrada to the extent that he has. Two of probably fewer than 10 guys in the league I'd be comfortable making that claim for (Odorizzi, Wright, Ziegler, Clippard etc...). Would have said Keuchel last year too because of his defense, but contact has been harder against him this year.

 

I haven't seen compelling evidence that Happ should be expected to beat his xFIP going forward.

 

 

and Sanchez? Stroman has the 4th best xFIP in the AL, how much weight do you put on that going forward?

[Terminator]

Unfortunately, Dickey and Saunders probably won't be worthy of offering qualifying offers. It'll probably just be EE and Bautista.

 

It depends how the rest of Saunders' season shakes out but would you sign him for 1 year, 16.7 million right now? I would.

 

I'd offer it to him but be prepared that he could accept. Given how few OFers there are on the market he might turn it down. But again this all depends on how his final two months look.