Lead off hitter?

[glory]

I don't think hitting Tulo 8th is the answer. The Cito Gaston approach is to give players the lineup spot they deserve. RESPECT

 

Pillar

Martin

Donaldson

Bautista

EE

Tulo

Saunders

Smoak

Goins

 

Pillar hits a bit better because he is up front, Donaldson, Bautista, EE, Tulo are close enough to middle of the order that they feel comfortable and respected.

 

It all be ********.

 

My post was an attempt to appease the Baseball God's by emulating Ned Yost. I don't actually think Tulo should be batting 8th or Pillar should be leading off.

[Olerud363]

I feel like it could very easily be Saunders/Pompey leading off if Travis isn't ready.

 

Pillar has the highest career on base percentage of those 3 guys, .303 to .301 to .295

 

Pillar has the lowest minor league on base percentage, but not by much .370 to .370 to .360

 

One could argue that all 3 would put up around .320 next year, the projections probably say that, or .310

 

Barring anybody having issues and suck attacks the most runs would be scored with the folllowing line up

 

Bautista

Donaldon

EE

Tulo

Martin

Saunders

Smoak

Pillar

Goins

[Jonn]

Bautista is ideal but I doubt he wants to do it. My guess is it will be Travis if healthy.

[Olerud363]

Bautista is ideal but I doubt he wants to do it. My guess is it will be Travis if healthy.

 

The premise is that Travis won't be healthy for the first month

 

So maybe it should be Martin,

 

If Bautista won't do it then why should Tulo?? The other choices are Saunders, Pillar, Goins, Smoak, all of who have sub .310 career on base averages.

 

Martin hasn't been a consistent power threat... he's like had solid 10 homer 55 rbi seasons sometimes, 20 70 other years.

 

So it's kind of dumb, but Martin isn't losing his 100 rbis over this, since he's only going to have 60-75 anyway... so out of the guys with .350+ on base percentages he gets to do it.

[BTS]

So the new thing on this forum is saying objectively stupid things and then using as a defense: "I think this will make the team more comfortable"?

[Boxcar]

So the new thing on this forum is saying objectively stupid things and then using as a defense: "I think this will make the team more comfortable"?

 

And then pretend the reason you said it wasn't actually the reason you said it before getting butthurt.

[Grant77]

Reposting, optimal lineups using steamer projections. Every lineup three things in common. Bautista 1, Eddy 4, and Goins 8. Many had Martin 9th, surprisingly.

 

5.074

Jose Bautista

Josh Donaldson

Russell Martin

Edwin Encarnacion

Troy Tulowitzki

Chris Colabello

Kevin Pillar

Ryan Goins

Michael Saunders

 

5.190

Jose Bautista

Josh Donaldson

Russell Martin

Edwin Encarnacion

Troy Tulowitzki

Chris Colabello

Devon Travis

Kevin Pillar

Michael Saunders

[G-Snarls]

FTR: Now 2 votes for Ryan Goins to hit leadoff

[Boxcar]

I find it weird that saskjaysfan isn't campaigning for Colabello to lead off. He could use a confidence boost too and likely sports a better OBP.

 

I think if you said to Colabello "hey kid, we believe in you. Bat leadoff." He'll probably OBP around .380 and gain the ability to run faster.

[Orgfiller]

No... because he isn't a very good hitter.

 

Not sure what the point of this question is

 

The reason why I brought that up is that Pillar's offensive profile is very similar to Perez's. He's a lot faster and has less power, but there are lots of similarities there, as both have good bat control but are full free swingers.

[puphood]

5.074

Jose Bautista

Josh Donaldson

Russell Martin

Edwin Encarnacion

Troy Tulowitzki

Chris Colabello

Kevin Pillar

Ryan Goins

Michael Saunders

 

Move Martin for Colabello, and if if if Saunders makes the cut also this could work till Travis comes back.

[saskjayfan]

I find it weird that saskjaysfan isn't campaigning for Colabello to lead off. He could use a confidence boost too and likely sports a better OBP.

 

I think if you said to Colabello "hey kid, we believe in you. Bat leadoff." He'll probably OBP around .380 and gain the ability to run faster.

 

that's exactly what I was just thinking. Now I don't have to make that post...thanks bro

[G-Snarls]

The numbers in these projections are what - expected average number of runs scored per game?

[Grant77]

The numbers in these projections are what - expected average number of runs scored per game?

 

That's correct. Don't read too much into them though. Steamer projects pretty significant from everyone but Pillar if I remember correctly. It also doesn't account for bench players, injuries, etc.

[BillBucknorslegs]

Is it too late to vote for Macier Izturis?

[Dick_Pole]

Rickey Henderson 1990:

 

.325/.439/.577

 

Troy Tulowitzki 2014:

 

.340/.432/.603

 

Why is this even a debate? If the whole theory of the lead off man is to get on base as often as possible so other hitters can drive him in, Tulowitzki is the one with the best skill set of being able to get on base without blasting 40+ home runs in the process. JB, JD and EE, you kind of want them coming up with guys on base sometimes.

[Dick_Pole]

Pompey makes a great #9 hitter. The only difference between #9 and #1 is that #9 will get one less AB during the course of the game about 90% of the time. The flow would be the exact same once the game gets past the first inning with Pompey as #1 and Tulo as #2 if you want to view it that way. So why about a quarter of you people want to gift an extra AB to an untested rookie at the expense of five proven all-stars is confusing to me.

[intentional wok]

Pompey makes a great #9 hitter. The only difference between #9 and #1 is that #9 will get one less AB during the course of the game about 90% of the time. The flow would be the exact same once the game gets past the first inning with Pompey as #1 and Tulo as #2 if you want to view it that way. So why about a quarter of you people want to gift an extra AB to an untested rookie at the expense of five proven all-stars is confusing to me.

 

A third of my posts on this forum are me bitching about this exact thing.

[BigCecil]

Pompey makes a great #9 hitter. The only difference between #9 and #1 is that #9 will get one less AB during the course of the game about 90% of the time. The flow would be the exact same once the game gets past the first inning with Pompey as #1 and Tulo as #2 if you want to view it that way. So why about a quarter of you people want to gift an extra AB to an untested rookie at the expense of five proven all-stars is confusing to me.

 

A third of my posts on this forum are me bitching about this exact thing.

 

I third that motion.

[RealAccountant]

I'll laugh if Cola puts up similar numbers to last year but with more plate appearances. Like .900 Ops in 500 PA

 

What will the Sabermatics monkeys say then. Probably some more pseudoscience like swing o rate or some nonsense.

 

How about some variance analysis for 2015 actuals vs projections

[Dick_Pole]

A third of my posts on this forum are me bitching about this exact thing.

 

Fight the good fight! With the offensive depth that the Jays have, this should not even be in a discussion. It's not like the choice is between him and Mike McCoy. Travis should be in the same boat, but his one month of MLB dominance will put him in the top of the order discussion as well. Really those two guys should be #8 and #9.

[Zaun of the Dead]

I say f*** it and experiment with bello batting leadoff

[THANOS]

I'll laugh if Cola puts up similar numbers to last year but with more plate appearances. Like .900 Ops in 500 PA

 

What will the Sabermatics monkeys say then. Probably some more pseudoscience like swing o rate or some nonsense.

 

How about some variance analysis for 2015 actuals vs projections

 

I'm really pulling for him. I would love it if that happened!

[Moo3]

It's underestimated just how valuable an OBP guy is infront of Jose, Edwin, JD. Pompey may have the potential to be that guy but he's certainly not there yet.

[Olerud363]

I'll laugh if Cola puts up similar numbers to last year but with more plate appearances. Like .900 Ops in 500 PA

 

What will the Sabermatics monkeys say then. Probably some more pseudoscience like swing o rate or some nonsense.

 

How about some variance analysis for 2015 actuals vs projections

 

It's crazy how uneducated our society is... people don't understand basic concepts like long term averages...

 

Cola lifetime average is .265, with a .323 on base, and a .438 slugging...

 

It isn't rocket science, most guys will hit their life time averages next year, if they are young they might improve a bit, if they are old they might decline.

 

It is very simple, Cola will hit his lifetime average. No need for advance stats. The advanced stats guys might take a deeper look... just to see if there is anything in there that indicates he is better then his lifetime averages... they didn't find anything...

[G-Snarls]

Lots of silent votes for Pompey

 

I'd LOVE to see Pompey (or Travis for that matter) become a good enough OBP guy for that to make sense, but no way do I start the season with him in that role even if he's hot in spring training. He'd have to earn it over a few months from the 9 spot IYAM.

[G-Snarls]

s*** though, Pompey's walk rates and OBP have pretty damn good throughout his minor league career...

[intentional wok]

I think seeing a batting order written out is a bit of an illusion. A beefy 2-6 looks a lot more "balanced" than a beefy 1-5, which just looks top-heavy and bottom-weak by comparison. Problem is that the lineups are weak in exactly the same ways, except the Pompey-leading-off version gives Pompey more PAs than Josh Donaldson. It's like people forget the lineup loops overs and you get the same effect of Pompey hitting in front of sluggers if he hits ninth.

 

This is my armchair psychology for the day.

[intrigid]

Yeah, lineups are SUPPOSED to be top heavy, not "balanced" like it's a goddamned seesaw. Seriously we knew this in the 1800s. Even an infant would understand the logic of this. So why not sports writers and managers?

[THANOS]

Lots of silent votes for Pompey

 

I'd LOVE to see Pompey (or Travis for that matter) become a good enough OBP guy for that to make sense, but no way do I start the season with him in that role even if he's hot in spring training. He'd have to earn it over a few months from the 9 spot IYAM.

 

s*** though, Pompey's walk rates and OBP have pretty damn good throughout his minor league career...

 

Oh yeah, especially last season. He OBP'd close to .400 across AA and AAA with a BB% of 12. That would be excellent for a lead-off hitter, if he was able to translate some of that to the Majors.

 

I'd say start him in the 9th spot and if his OBP, BB%, etc are pretty good after April, then put him in the leadoff spot. That said, if Travis is back by then, he could easily slide into that spot as well. I would just use Martin until then, if Tulo really does have a psychological "comfort" issue with batting leadoff (as weird as that would be).

Edited February 3, 2016 by THANOS