Bautista / EE extension discussion

[RealAccountant]

So paying 5 guys 20+ million each sounds like a good idea to you guys. Smart, very smart

 

Is it your money?

[BTS]

Is it your money?

 

This comment only makes sense if you assume no limit to payroll going forward.

[RealAccountant]

This comment only makes sense if you assume no limit to payroll going forward.

 

Yes payroll will increase to accommodate these contracts. Maybe not no limits but it will increase

[BTS]

Yes payroll will increase to accommodate these contracts. Maybe not no limits but it will increase

 

You don't know this.

[Atothe]

Bautista played hurt most of the year, not sure it's wise to put that much stock into his 2015 defensive metrics. It's actually impressive to see his offensive numbers even when he was hurt.

 

Beltran was hurt most of last year, should I not take his defensive metrics seriously?

[glory]

Yes payroll will increase to accommodate these contracts. Maybe not no limits but it will increase

 

Payroll is standing pat or getting lower in 2016 from the looks of it. There's no guarantee with Rogers regardless of the contracts on the books.

[RealAccountant]

Payroll is standing pat or getting lower in 2016 from the looks of it. There's no guarantee with Rogers regardless of the contracts on the books.

 

We don't know

 

What we do know is that Bautista and Encarnacion are still impact bats. They are elite hitters who don't grow on trees. We have the best offense in baseball and we can have the best offense in baseball for another few years if we extend them

[Atothe]

Payroll is standing pat or getting lower in 2016 from the looks of it. There's no guarantee with Rogers regardless of the contracts on the books.

 

I don't think its going lower

[fireballW]

Yea I don't have the confidence that Bautista would be any closer to an average 1B defensively and I don't think he'd be better than EE.

 

EE has actually been improving defensively each year since becoming more or less a regular first basemen in 2012 and this year he actually put up a + UZR/150 for the first time in his career.

 

2012: 583 innings, -14.5 UZR/150

2013: 698 innings, -10.8 UZR/150

2014: 694 innings, -9.7 UZR/150

2015: 481 innings, +5.1 UZR/150

 

He's trending in the right direction at least, I think Bautista would start well behind him even if he is naturally a better defender.

 

Slower turf helped I'm sure.

[Grant77]

That'd be a lot of money locked up in two aging vets, would it not? Franchise crippling, really.

 

Hardly. I don't see either one of them really falling off the map. By locking them up, we're almost a shoe-in for best offense in baseball for the next 3-4 years. The pitching just has to be average and with several young pitchers already at the big league level and a decent farm, I trust Shapiro to aptly fill out the rest of the roster.

[Maahfaace]

Beltran was hurt most of last year, should I not take his defensive metrics seriously?

 

Seriously?, you must consider that this "steep decline" being refeted too isn't really that. It was the product of an arm injury, and by no means should that be applied to him going forward when predicting future defensive value.

Bats is a below average defender with a plus plus arm. Without that arm he is terrible, but said arm looked pretty solid near the end of the season.

 

http://m.mlb.com/cutfour/2015/09/22/151060852/jose-bautista-throws-out-two-yankees-with-incredible-plays

[xposbrad]

I just don't understand how some people are hesitant about giving Price a contract until he's 37 but yet think giving JB a contract running through 40 years old based on the assumption they 'think' he will age well and think it's a good idea. More often than not, players decline rapidly in their mid 30s. Granted JB had a solid year last year, he can still decline next year or the year after quite a bit, plus he's going to be a DH most likely after next year. I think we need to be cautious throwing 15m+ annual contracts to players most likely to have considerable production drops and who we won't even be able to rely on to play in the field.

 

EE I would consider an extension but I just don't see us having both EE (also a DH candidate) and JB (another DH) both here after next year.

[Grant77]

I just don't understand how some people are hesitant about giving Price a contract until he's 37 but yet think giving JB a contract running through 40 years old based on the assumption they 'think' he will age well and think it's a good idea. More often than not, players decline rapidly in their mid 30s. Granted JB had a solid year last year, he can still decline next year or the year after quite a bit, plus he's going to be a DH most likely after next year. I think we need to be cautious throwing 15m+ annual contracts to players most likely to have considerable production drops and who we won't even be able to rely on to play in the field.

 

EE I would consider an extension but I just don't see us having both EE (also a DH candidate) and JB (another DH) both here after next year.

 

Statistically speaking, you should be much more confident that a position player will maintain his value than a starting pitcher. Ryan Howard contracts are rather rare when compared to pitchers. Usually the downside is that of the Matt Holliday deal.

[CHRIS]

That's a 100 million dollars worth. For declining assets.

 

I don't think the key is whether or not they're declining, but rather what level they're declining to. Both guys could put up lesser numbers than they're doing now and still have a lot of value.

 

Unless someone rockets through the system, replacing what they bring to the table is going to be expensive one way or another.

[youngtea]

Considering that we have a crappy dollar at this point I don't think we will see a big bump in the salary cap.

[Maahfaace]

Statistically speaking, you should be much more confident that a position player will maintain his value than a starting pitcher. Ryan Howard contracts are rather rare when compared to pitchers. Usually the downside is that of the Matt Holliday deal.

 

The Holliday deal wasnt bad, he was quite productive throughout it, until his injury filled past season. Mind you Holiday is still only 36 with this being the last year of that deal.

[xposbrad]

Statistically speaking, you should be much more confident that a position player will maintain his value than a starting pitcher. Ryan Howard contracts are rather rare when compared to pitchers. Usually the downside is that of the Matt Holliday deal.

 

I don't have confidence in any player in the years from 36-40. Yes JB can DH, but then you can't have EE and JB both be DH. I still don't think it's the smart thing to do, the team will have a lot of older guys (baseball wise). Martin, Tulo etc..

 

Not to mention, injuries, recovery, drop in power...That's all affected by age, I just don't see the need unless it is an incredibly team friendly deal again.

[KingKat]

Seriously?, you must consider that this "steep decline" being refeted too isn't really that. It was the product of an arm injury, and by no means should that be applied to him going forward when predicting future defensive value.

Bats is a below average defender with a plus plus arm. Without that arm he is terrible, but said arm looked pretty solid near the end of the season.

 

http://m.mlb.com/cutfour/2015/09/22/151060852/jose-bautista-throws-out-two-yankees-with-incredible-plays

 

The arm injury hurt because it took away the one way in which Bautista provides defensive value but that only highlights how terrible the rest of his defensive game is. The bad routes, the poor fielding... that's will be somewhat offset by a healthy throwing arm but it won't go away and I think it's perfectly legit to wonder if we're at the point where the bad will outweigh the good going forward. If you don't extend Bautista then maybe you just ride it out for one more year but if you plan to extend him you have to do that with the idea getting him off the field sooner rather than later.

[Grant77]

I don't have confidence in any player in the years from 36-40. Yes JB can DH, but then you can't have EE and JB both be DH. I still don't think it's the smart thing to do, the team will have a lot of older guys (baseball wise). Martin, Tulo etc..

 

Not to mention, injuries, recovery, drop in power...That's all affected by age, I just don't see the need unless it is an incredibly team friendly deal again.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2015&month=0&season1=2006&ind=1&team=0&rost=0&age=36,58&filter=&players=0&sort=18,d

 

I don't get why the deals have to be incredibly team friendly. Following a regular decline curve, they both project for about 13 WAR in the next 4 years. You could hypothetically pay them 4/100 and still get surplus value. If we get them for less (which I think is possible) or if they don't immediately decline, we're making out like bandits.

[Grant77]

The arm injury hurt because it took away the one way in which Bautista provides defensive value but that only highlights how terrible the rest of his defensive game is. The bad routes, the poor fielding... that's will be somewhat offset by a healthy throwing arm but it won't go away and I think it's perfectly legit to wonder if we're at the point where the bad will outweigh the good going forward. If you don't extend Bautista then maybe you just ride it out for one more year but if you plan to extend him you have to do that with the idea getting him off the field sooner rather than later.

 

UZR has never had his fielding as a problem. In fact, it was a plus this year. I think a couple of bonehead plays are clouding people's evaluations. The range is a concern, but the bottom line is that he's an average or better fielder when the arm is healthy. He shouldn't kill us out there for a couple more seasons.

[Atothe]

35-36 year olds aging well defensively is a myth. Expect him to be below average at best

[BTS]

So many similar hitters have fallen off big at this age:

 

Jayson Werth at 36

Adrian Beltre at 36

Victor Martinez at 36

Mattt Holliday's power is on a 3-year decline and he's 35

 

In terms of recent hitters who remained good investments at close to 40, you're looking at David Ortiz. Letting both walk and collecting the compensation picks and salary flexibility while letting someone else gamble 15-20M/year on a couple of guys in their mid-late 30s is a pretty viable plan.

[Atothe]

So many similar hitters have fallen off big at this age:

 

Jayson Werth at 36

Adrian Beltre at 36

Victor Martinez at 36

Mattt Holliday's power is on a 3-year decline and he's 35

 

In terms of recent hitters who remained good investments at close to 40, you're looking at David Ortiz. Letting both walk and collecting the compensation picks and salary flexibility while letting someone else gamble 15-20M/year on a couple of guys in their mid-late 30s is a pretty viable plan.

 

If they aren't giving you the hometown discount then walk away.

[Grant77]

So many similar hitters have fallen off big at this age:

 

Jayson Werth at 36

Adrian Beltre at 36

Victor Martinez at 36

Mattt Holliday's power is on a 3-year decline and he's 35

 

In terms of recent hitters who remained good investments at close to 40, you're looking at David Ortiz. Letting both walk and collecting the compensation picks and salary flexibility while letting someone else gamble 15-20M/year on a couple of guys in their mid-late 30s is a pretty viable plan.

 

If the contract is about 4/80 like I expect, Jose doesn't have to be a good investment at age 40. He has to be a good hitter at ages 35 and 36 and a decent hitter at ages 37 and 38. The contract would be perfectly justified in that case. We'd probably get surplus value, actually. It also plays very well into our contention window.

[burlingtonbandit]

So many similar hitters have fallen off big at this age:

 

Jayson Werth at 36

Adrian Beltre at 36

Victor Martinez at 36

Mattt Holliday's power is on a 3-year decline and he's 35

 

In terms of recent hitters who remained good investments at close to 40, you're looking at David Ortiz. Letting both walk and collecting the compensation picks and salary flexibility while letting someone else gamble 15-20M/year on a couple of guys in their mid-late 30s is a pretty viable plan.

 

Bautista's contact rates have been almost exactly the same for 5 years. Sure he will decline at some point but he looks like he can maintain the above average-elite offence. EE on the other hand declined in that area last year but the Power was better than previous years.

[BigCecil]

Bautista's contact rates have been almost exactly the same for 5 years. Sure he will decline at some point but he looks like he can maintain the above average-elite offence. EE on the other hand declined in that area last year but the Power was better than previous years.

 

I'm for letting them both walk and getting picks but Edwin battled numerous injuries(back, legs and finger) almost all year. Had to affect him. His contact regression 2015 was more as a result of that than any other factor imo.

[Frenchsoup]

Bautista's contact rates have been almost exactly the same for 5 years. Sure he will decline at some point but he looks like he can maintain the above average-elite offence. EE on the other hand declined in that area last year but the Power was better than previous years.

 

EE had a lot of injuries. A hernia, a finger, and his back, take it easy on him.

[Governator]

I'm for letting them both walk and getting picks but Edwin battled numerous injuries(back, legs and finger) almost all year. Had to affect him. His contact regression 2015 was more as a result of that than any other factor imo.

 

Too bad there is probably more injury filled seasons for both of them down the road, they seem to play hurt a lot. It's just even when they are not 100% they still provide more value than any replacement level player so they are kept on the field. That's perhaps more due to lack of depth than anything. Look at Martin battling through hamstring injury for 4-6 weeks because putting him on the DL would have likely provided less expected value then having behind the plate. In fact a Russel Martin with a pulled hamstring is still a faster runner than a healthy Navarro.

[Brownie19]

EE had a lot of injuries. A hernia, a finger, and his back, take it easy on him.

 

Shouldn't we expect those things from aging players?

[Frenchsoup]

Shouldn't we expect those things from aging players?

 

Yes, i was just pointing out he had a lot of s*** happening to him. It has nothing to do with his actual baseball skills diminishing.