Jays acquire Jesse Chavez

[Frag]

I'm not going to pretend that I know enough about pitching mechanics to have strong opinions about something like this, but I think his mechanics aren't conducive to being a starting pitcher. He's already had the TJS once and I think Toronto probably agrees with me or else they wouldn't have called him up this season and stuck him in the pen. Might be wrong though.

 

Wasn't he put in the pen so that the team would limit his IP, especially after just recovering from TJS?

[Stangstag]

I'm not going to pretend that I know enough about pitching mechanics to have strong opinions about something like this, but I think his mechanics aren't conducive to being a starting pitcher. He's already had the TJS once and I think Toronto probably agrees with me or else they wouldn't have called him up this season and stuck him in the pen. Might be wrong though.

 

Do you know how many pitchers have had TJS?

[Stangstag]

Wasn't he put in the pen so that the team would limit his IP, especially after just recovering from TJS?

 

Not really... He was put in the pen because AA thought he could help out the major league team. Same with Castro

[Laika]

Do you know how many pitchers have had TJS?

 

The fact that he's had TJS isn't a huge deal to me on its own, it's just a thing in his past that deserves some consideration and it is well known that past injury is a significant factor in predicting future injury.

 

I don't like the look of his mechanics. That's the meat and potatoes of my opinion. Toronto's developmental decisions with him also imply that they don't really think much of him as a starter.

 

And let it be known to all that I am well practiced as an amateur pitching mechanics analyst.

[Frag]

Not really... He was put in the pen because AA thought he could help out the major league team. Same with Castro

 

That's the problem with information asymmetry. You could make multiple arguments about why teams make their decisions, but you cannot pinpoint the exact reasons.

[Grant77]

JA Happ, Ian Kennedy, Bartolo Colon, hell even Bud Norris. I just feel like you gave up a great reliever with 4 years of control for a low end SP that makes the team better but not that much better.

 

Is the difference between Chavez and Drew hutchison for 1 year > the difference between Liam Hendriks and Bo Schultz +4 Million towards a better SP? Not in my mind.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/fangraphs-crowd-the-top-82-free-agents/

 

This isn't perfect, but should give some perspective on your delusional expectations for the free agent market.

[burlingtonbandit]

The only thing I don't like about the trade is the 1yr vs. 4yr control, but honestly, I'm confident the Jays can find a decent reliever to slot into Liam's role over the next year (maybe even by opening day), weather thru development, trade, free agency, rule 5, whatever.

 

Relievers come and go probably more than any other players, and because Hendriks was often found in low leverage situations the impact of losing him will probably be somewhat minimized. It seemed no matter how well he did (or does in the future), Gibbons was never going to have him above Osuna / Cecil / Sanchez and even possibly Lowe / Hawkins type guys. Stats wise he was their top reliever in most regards, but he was probably #4 on Gibby's depth chart. If you're not going to use him, you might as well trade him for something the manager will need to use.

 

I really liked Liam and hated that Gibbons never relied on him, so I hope he gets a chance in Oakland, even though they are terrible.

 

Nice post. Welcome to the board.

 

I know what you are saying but at the same time I'd rather they of traded Sanchez to "force" Gibby to use Hendriks then keep the worse reliever because the manager trusts him more. I think Hendriks was a pretty safe bet considering the volatility of relievers because of his command throughout his career.

[burlingtonbandit]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/fangraphs-crowd-the-top-82-free-agents/

 

This isn't perfect, but should give some perspective on your delusional expectations for the free agent market.

 

You just linked an article with the following numbers. All around 10 million. Perhaps you should learn to read.

 

Ian Kennedy 12 Million

 

JA Happ 11 Million

 

Bartolo Colon 10 Million

 

Bud Norris 6 Million

[King]

You just linked an article with the following numbers. All around 10 million. Perhaps you should learn to read.

 

Ian Kennedy 12 Million

 

JA Happ 11 Million

 

Bartolo Colon 10 Million

 

Bud Norris 6 Million

 

The question was less than 10

 

Numbers less than 10

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

 

 

12, 11, 10 are not less than 10

[Grant77]

You just linked an article with the following numbers. All around 10 million. Perhaps you should learn to read.

 

Ian Kennedy 12 Million

 

JA Happ 11 Million

 

Bartolo Colon 10 Million

 

Bud Norris 6 Million

 

Oh, the irony.

[BigRed]

Nice post. Welcome to the board.

 

I know what you are saying but at the same time I'd rather they of traded Sanchez to "force" Gibby to use Hendriks then keep the worse reliever because the manager trusts him more. I think Hendriks was a pretty safe bet considering the volatility of relievers because of his command throughout his career.

 

Thanks.

 

I don't think you get much for Sanchez though, especially in a pure baseball trade. Prospects/futures sure, but nothing proven that's MLB ready. He's young and coming off an injury, moved from starter to BP... I think you'd have a tough time selling him to other teams for something that's going to provide immediate help to a contending team.

 

He still also has a lot of upside, either in the BP or as a starter, so I think it's smart to keep him. They also may need to flip him back to a starter if they don't land anybody in the FA market. Right now they only have 4 starters (Stroman, Dickey, Chavez, Hutch). No more moves and Sanchez is back to the rotation by default, and Hutch is also a big question mark at this point.

 

Liam was likely never going to be a starter, better to trade him for a guy who's proven himself as a back end rotation guy I think, considering the Jays needs.

[burlingtonbandit]

The question was less than 10

 

Numbers less than 10

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

 

 

12, 11, 10 are not less than 10

 

 

 

Holy f*** anal much. Obviously take it within context. FA SP 10-15 Million + 4 years of Hendriks> Chavez and 8 million to spend was the entire point I was making.

[burlingtonbandit]

Thanks.

 

I don't think you get much for Sanchez though, especially in a pure baseball trade. Prospects/futures sure, but nothing proven that's MLB ready. He's young and coming off an injury, moved from starter to BP... I think you'd have a tough time selling him to other teams for something that's going to provide immediate help to a contending team.

 

He still also has a lot of upside, either in the BP or as a starter, so I think it's smart to keep him. They also may need to flip him back to a starter if they don't land anybody in the FA market. Right now they only have 4 starters (Stroman, Dickey, Chavez, Hutch). No more moves and Sanchez is back to the rotation by default, and Hutch is also a big question mark at this point.

 

I think Sanchez would have more trade value than Hendriks to more than a few teams. Former top 50 prospect and fantastic ERA as a releiver with great "stuff". I think you are forgetting about Estrada so that would be 5 with Hutch in it. If the Jays sign another SP and Hutch looks good in ST then it looks likely Chavez would be in the pen to start the season. Now he's probably a fantastic reliever but that is my biggest issue with the trade. Could of had a FA provide similar value and not lost Hendriks. Its very possible the trade works out for the Blue Jays which obviously I would want but I wouldn't of made the trade myself.

[BigRed]

Yeah, I forgot Estrada, whoops!

 

So with this move they have a guaranteed rotation of Stroman, Estrada, Dickey, Chavez and Hutch, with Sanchez in the wing as a possible swingman or competition for Hutch for that last spot in spring training.

 

At least now they have 6 guys who have MLB experience as a starter. I think this was about protecting themselves against the worst case scenario, and that is that they don't land anybody in free agency. If they are unable to sign anybody and if they don't make this trade they only really have 5 starters, so if somebody goes down they could be in trouble.

[GD]

Holy f*** anal much. Obviously take it within context. FA SP 10-15 Million + 4 years of Hendriks> Chavez and 8 million to spend was the entire point I was making.

 

Math is HARD

[Cyborg]

If you organize Toronto's rotation by projected talent (Steamer600), Jesse Chavez actually slots into the #2 slot behind Stroman. Of course Steamer is probably way off on Estrada.

 

I think Chavez is certainly better than Hutchison, probably better than Dickey, and maybe better than Estrada.

"Drew Hutchison is better than you think"

[Laika]

"Drew Hutchison is better than you think"

 

Remains possible but his 2015 seemed like a huge step back. The peripherals were worse, the DIPS took a big step back, the slider no longer looked like a standout swing-and-miss pitch, the fastball command was terrible.

And the second straight year with a big ERA-FIP is at the very least not exactly comforting.

 

I still think he's fine... just not sure how fine.

 

I think in a year we've gone from hoping that he can stick as a #3 SP to hoping that he can stick in the rotation.

[Angrioter]

Are people actually still preferring Hutch over Chavez at this point? Hutch basically played his way off the team by the end of the year. I wouldn't hold your breath for him to figure it out. Maybe he finally breaks out, maybe he doesn't. If anything this is hopefully a bit of a motivator for him since he could very well be competing for a spot in the rotation if the Jays make more moves.

 

4.7M is not bad for a #5 guy. Happ was making 6.7M. Reliable #4/5 can be tough to come by. Teams often fall into using a swingman, rushing AAA pitchers, etc in order to finish out their rotation.

 

Considering Chavez will probably pitch 150+ innings, and Hendriks pitched 65, it makes sense to me. I'd rather the hole be in the bullpen than the rotation. The Jays also only have 3 reliable starters (Stroman, Dickey, Estrada) and one question mark (Hutch). They don't have much depth in AAA. If somebody goes down they are really exposed. Maybe they don't land one of the big name starters, but 1-2 more moves even like this would be nice.

 

Also, Hendriks was so terribly misused in low leverage situations, I doubt you'll notice he's gone once the season starts. They can find somebody else for mop-up when the outcome of the game is likely 99% decided one way or the other, or 6th/7th inning duties.

 

Eres un tipo wise.

Our depth is s*** right now; we need at least 3 more cheap starters. Osuna can't start game now and Sanchez suxxxx. Hutchison guy is our secret weapon

[saskjayfan]

who's your 5th starter Osuna?

 

I'd prefer to sign one more guy. The trade on it's own is no big deal either way, but it would seem that the chance of Osuna getting a shot in the rotation is much less after this trade. There are legitimate concerns about his health transitioning to the rotation, but there's also a kid with fastball command who has a good change up and a good slider who could be a very good starter.

 

Clifff lee might be had on the cheap....how's that elbow...Who's a gambler....

[admin]

I would have liked to see Hendriks converted to starter and see how he did.

I think I read here that Oakland was going to keep him in the BP but I wouldn't be surprised for him to go starter and put up low 3s ERA there.

[RealAccountant]

Perhaps a question we should be asking is if there was another deal for us to get Chavez without losing Hendrik's

[Stangstag]

I would have liked to see Hendriks converted to starter and see how he did.

I think I read here that Oakland was going to keep him in the BP but I wouldn't be surprised for him to go starter and put up low 3s ERA there.

 

He's exactly the type of pitcher that would thrive in the Oakland coliseum

[Grant77]

He's exactly the type of pitcher that would thrive in the Oakland coliseum

 

What type of pitcher wouldn't thrive at O.Co?

[burlingtonbandit]

In an ideal world I'd put all 3 of Osuna, Sanchez and Hutch in AAA and sign someone like Shark.

 

Stroman

Shark

Estrada

Dickey

Chavez

 

Osuna

Hutchison

Sanchez

 

Re-sign Lowe and sign another RP. See what else you can find off the scrap heap. If the bullpen isn't working out you can always call up Osuna and/or Sanchez. But you can call them up anyway late in the year when they reach their IP limits in AAA.

 

But obviously this costs money so it won't happen.

 

If that was the plan the Chavez trade would be even more stupid. You don't trade Hendriks to pay Chavez 4.7 and then sign a riskier reliever to something around 5 million. Part of the reason why they made the trade was SP depth so if you planned to have Hutch and Osuna in AAA it makes a lot less sense. Not to mention the bullpen would be a massive question mark with that scenario.

[RealAccountant]

Lol Hutch is not going to be in AAA

 

He has been in the majors 3 years now. He isn't going to get better. He is what he is now which maybe a decent but unlucky starter

 

Osuna is not going to go to AAA. They have him picked as an elite closer and that's what he will be now

[wamco]

A Chavez-Hutchison piggyback it is then.

[OBPlover]

Osuna's not an elite closer though. The guy was always seen as a SP prospect but because we rushed him to the show and he did well as a RP, suddenly now he's a RP? Shouldn't we just be more excited about his future as a SP based on the fact that he held his own at 20 years old? But instead somehow he's a reliever now...

 

But its rare that a former SP finds himself in a dominant closer's role and moves back into a SP.

[BTS]

10-14 Million AAV on a multiyear deal. Would you rather have Happ at 3/40 + Hendriks or Chavez at 4.7?

 

Chavez

[wamco]

Lhp will be targeted imo

[RealAccountant]

Osuna's not an elite closer though. The guy was always seen as a SP prospect but because we rushed him to the show and he did well as a RP, suddenly now he's a RP? Shouldn't we just be more excited about his future as a SP based on the fact that he held his own at 20 years old? But instead somehow he's a reliever now...

 

Why don't you get excited about the fact that would have an elite closer who AROD said could be the next Mariano Rivera

 

He wants to close. The teams wants him to close

Let him be. I don't know if he will be a good starter but I know if we are contending next year I don't want questions about the closer spot. Before Osuna we had so many fricking issues. Cecil was horrible in that spot

 

Sometimes I think people won't rest until they completely ruin a good thing. I am surprised there aren't appologizers on here wanting to trade Donaldson at his "peak value". People on here think they are such experts but I remember well these were the same people who wanted to trade Joey Bats after after his " fluke" 2010.

 

This is a good baseball team trying to win the world series in 2016. It doesn't need maybes. It needs players in places where they have succeeded before. Having Osuna as the closer means we don't have to worry about the ninth inning.

 

Move on. Find another starter.