Offseason Roster Thread

[L54]

Does anyone actually know what $/WAR we should all be using when we do these stupid things? People throw around anywhere from 7-11.

 

I haven't seen either 7 or 11 used by anybody.

 

I'm pretty sure our own Mark Shapiro is on record saying 9M is the number he uses.

[THANOS]

Probably Shapiro's interview from years ago

 

I actually do remember reading that, and, if true, means Tulo projects to be far more valuable.

[Laika]

MLB offices for the most part don't use "WAR", per se. WAR is a descriptive short hand statistic and is really of little use to a front office.

 

But they would all have internal predictive and descriptive measurements of offensive and defensive run values for every player. Whether or not they roll everything up into one number, who knows.

 

And whether or not the GM and AGMs even care about internal nerd numbers, who knows. Most care. But some executives might prefer to simply classify players based on the 20-80 scale (i.e., this guy is a "role 6" player). I know of one front office that actually had their analytics department translate internal "WAR" into the 20-80 scale, for use by the executives (i.e., "the nerds think he's a role 5 player but I've seen him several times and he's just nothing more than a role 4").

[Laika]

I actually do remember reading that, and, if true, means Tulo projects to be far more valuable.

 

Things get pretty silly with big contracts, when you can slightly perturb your $/WAR and significantly alter how much a player is hypothetically worth. It's all a little ridiculous at that point and the analysis kind of collapses in on itself.

[burlingtonbandit]

8.5 or so as league average

 

Adjusted for win curve very roughly

 

Thats why I have a hard time seeing them trade Tulo right now. Shapiro has said the same thing in interviews that where they are on the win curve it would be very difficult to trade value off the 25 man roster.

[Trouba95]

How much do you figure Shark, Iwakuma, Kazmir will each get in FA and what term? Assuming Shark gets a one yr deal to rebuild his value.

[burlingtonbandit]

How much do you figure Shark, Iwakuma, Kazmir will each get in FA and what term? Assuming Shark gets a one yr deal to rebuild his value.

 

Shark probably gets 20 million/season. I'm not so sure he takes a 1 year deal. If he was he probably would just take a QO. I think he could get close to 4/80 much like the Porcello contract. I think GMs are past the just looking at ERA stage now a days.

 

Iwakuma 2/40 maybe 3/55

 

Kazmir 4/70

[Abomination]

Shark probably gets 20 million/season. I'm not so sure he takes a 1 year deal. If he was he probably would just take a QO. I think he could get close to 4/80 much like the Porcello contract. I think GMs are past the just looking at ERA stage now a days.

 

Iwakuma 2/40 maybe 3/55

 

Kazmir 4/70

 

Well, Shark's 4.31 xFIP wasn't exactly great last year either, so it's not just the ERA. Really hard to figure out what someone will give him, but he'll be 31 at the start of the year next year, so I don't see him taking a 1 year deal to rebuild value.

 

I don't think he'll get as much as Porcello, who was likely boosted quite a bit by age. I could see 5/75.

[baubau]

Shark probably gets 20 million/season. I'm not so sure he takes a 1 year deal. If he was he probably would just take a QO. I think he could get close to 4/80 much like the Porcello contract. I think GMs are past the just looking at ERA stage now a days.

 

Iwakuma 2/40 maybe 3/55

 

Kazmir 4/70

 

 

I would be shocked if a team gave Shark 20 Mil/Year. I would expect somewhere in the 15 Mil range. I have been wrong before and bigger things have surprised me (Wells trade, Donaldson trade, etc.).

[Jimcanuck]

Nice, and here lies exactly why Tulo could net something good on the trade market.

 

http://www.breakingblue.ca/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/comparison1.png

 

This also seems very conservative with the $/WAR estimation in future years, so the surplus value could be even higher.

 

That Tulo WAR projection looks eerily like the Reyes projection when he arrived in Toronto.

Edited November 4, 2015 by Jimcanuck

[Angrioter]

$\WAR will depend of the team acquisitive power in terms of money.

 

If you have Jays money you can pay 10 millions for one Win; If you are the Indians you just can pay 7

[jaysblue]

What type of contract do you think Scott Kazmir will get?

[Grant77]

What type of contract do you think Scott Kazmir will get?

 

I'm not comfortable with more than 3 years with his injury history, but I imagine a couple of teams will go 4. I'll guess 4/68.

[jaysblue]

I'm not comfortable with more than 3 years with his injury history, but I imagine a couple of teams will go 4. I'll guess 4/68.

 

Yeah, there are so many middle tier starting pitchers available via free agency, so do you think that could lower prices/years on some of those arms? Price, Greinke and probably Cueto will get paid obviously, and probably some of the other pitchers in the next tier below if they sign quick. Though I'm sure you might be able to nab some solid arms on 1 year contracts (similar to how Ervin Santana 2 years ago signed late with the Braves).

[Grant77]

Yeah, there are so many middle tier starting pitchers available via free agency, so do you think that could lower prices/years on some of those arms? Price, Greinke and probably Cueto will get paid obviously, and probably some of the other pitchers in the next tier below if they sign quick. Though I'm sure you might be able to nab some solid arms on 1 year contracts (similar to how Ervin Santana 2 years ago signed late with the Braves).

 

My instinct says no, just because so many teams need starting pitching. It's not like when there are 4 all-star catchers available and the market dries up.

 

It's hard to gauge who might be available on a one year deal, but I'd love to pair a deal like that with a bigger contract to a guy like Samardzija. Candidates might include Latos, Colon, Fister, Lincecum, and Lee, but I can imagine someone like Iwakuma or Kennedy slipping through the cracks. You mentioned the Santana deal, so it's not unheard of.

[Terminator]

 

It's hard to gauge who might be available on a one year deal, but I'd love to pair a deal like that with a bigger contract to a guy like Samardzija.

 

Estrada could be that one year deal guy if he accepts the QO but I don't know that he would accept it. I don't think anyone has accepted the QO since the new CBA took effect.

[Sammy225]

Estrada could be that one year deal guy if he accepts the QO but I don't know that he would accept it. I don't think anyone has accepted the QO since the new CBA took effect.

 

Estrada will be looking for a multi year deal this will be his last real shot to cash in

[Terminator]

Estrada will be looking for a multi year deal this will be his last real shot to cash in

 

Yeah I agree, so let's offer him the QO and get the pick.

[L54]

Estrada will be looking for a multi year deal this will be his last real shot to cash in

 

Not really. Taking the QO and trying to cash in next year isn't the worst plan for him. A lot less skepticism surrounding him if he's able to turn in another strong year.

[Terminator]

Not really. Taking the QO and trying to cash in next year isn't the worst plan for him. A lot less skepticism surrounding him if he's able to turn in another strong year.

 

He'll be 33 though instead of 32. If he declines what is his worst case scenario?

 

He probably gets a two year deal for at least 24 mil or so wouldn't he? That's not much worse than 15.8 mil for one year.

 

I bet he declines and goes for a 3 year deal worth about 36 million or so. Keep in mind, no one has ever accepted the QO.

[BigCecil]

Estrada could be that one year deal guy if he accepts the QO but I don't know that he would accept it. I don't think anyone has accepted the QO since the new CBA took effect.

 

going to be tough call on offering QO to Estrada. Its tempting with our dearth in SP. Nobody knows the market yet for tier 2 SP options so it could be an expensive one year risk.

 

navvy wont be back so that may play into it if you believe in the co-authored success of that tandem.

 

I don't think he takes a QO and we get a pick OR the risk is...he takes the QO...cant find it next year, which means we spend $28mm on RA and him 2016.

[Terminator]

going to be tough call on offering QO to Estrada. Its tempting with our dearth in SP. Nobody knows the market yet for tier 2 SP options so it could be an expensive one year risk.

 

navvy wont be back so that may play into it if you believe in the co-authored success of that tandem.

 

I don't think he takes a QO and we get a pick OR the risk is...he takes the QO...cant find it next year, which means we spend $28mm on RA and him 2016.

 

What other pitchers will be out there on 1 year deals and who, if any, will be better than Estrada?

 

To me I think it's a pretty easy call. He probably won't accept but even if he does it's not really that much of an over payment on a one year deal and we need SP's anyway.

[blurnandez]

Not really. Taking the QO and trying to cash in next year isn't the worst plan for him.

 

I would say that's a pretty bad plan for him. You never know what's going to happen in the next year regarding performance or injuries, his value has never been higher, and he knows right now he can get a 2-3 year deal from someone.

[Brenner]

What other pitchers will be out there on 1 year deals and who, if any, will be better than Estrada?

 

To me I think it's a pretty easy call. He probably won't accept but even if he does it's not really that much of an over payment on a one year deal and we need SP's anyway.

 

Agreed, definitely should extend a QO. The outcomes are all favourable:

 

He accepts - you over pay slightly for 1 year but you avoid the risk attached to a long-term contract for a 1 year wonder. Considering where the Jays are on the win curve and contention window, the over payment is worth it. Plus, if he is great again you can QO again.

 

He declines - you pick up a draft pick or you resign him still, but you gain leverage by attaching a cost of a draft pick to him.

 

I think he declines but the QO is an easy decision. Ideally the rotation is Stroman, FA, Estrada, Dickey, 1 of Hutch/Osuna/Sanchez (let these guys compete for a rotation spot).

[BigCecil]

What other pitchers will be out there on 1 year deals and who, if any, will be better than Estrada?

 

To me I think it's a pretty easy call. He probably won't accept but even if he does it's not really that much of an over payment on a one year deal and we need SP's anyway.

 

I tend to agree and I think a QO is whats going to happen.

[S33n]

If he was a conventional pitcher I'd have no problem with it but I have a hard time stomaching the personal catcher ********, inconsistency of the knuckleball and the general sideshow that is RA Dickey. I'm just a Dickey hater, whatever.

 

The only downside to this is Josh Thole. f***, I hate Josh Thole.

[jaysblue]

The only downside to this is Josh Thole. f***, I hate Josh Thole.

 

I said this yesterday. Josh Thole hasn't produced a positive WAR season in his three years with the Blue Jays. He's a strain on the 25 man roster.

[KingKat]

I don't think anyone has accepted the QO since the new CBA took effect.

 

No but there definitely have been cases where the player should have accepted. Stephen Drew being the most obvious example.

[Governator]

No but there definitely have been cases where the player should have accepted. Stephen Drew being the most obvious example.

 

 

Didn't Kendrys Morales do the same thing a couple years ago?

[KingKat]

Didn't Kendrys Morales do the same thing a couple years ago?

 

Didn't Ervin Santana turn down a q.o. as well? I think you could assemble a list of players who fall in that category. Just saying "no one ever accepted it" is not really a complete argument because some clearly should have.