Blue Jays vs. Royals AL Championship Thread

[37stieb]

So now it's in the hands of R.A tomorrow. His last start vs. KC was actually that infamous bench clearing game here in Toronto and in midst of all that choas, many people may have forgotten that he actually had a very good game that day; 7 innings of 2 hit ball (with 2 walks and 6k's.). Another good news is that as a collective unit KC hitters are batting .226 vs Dickey lifetime. One problem though is that their best hitter vs. Dickey is Alcides Escobar (6 for 18 lifetime, .333 average vs. Dickey) who is simply on fire right now... we really need to find a way to get this guy out.

 

I say they toss him some chin music to start the game with a bang. It's nice to use that last game against Dickey vs Royals, but I'm certain that wasn't quite the same line up he has to face tomorrow. Let's hope the butterfly effect is in full float tomorrow. Unless the f***ers in MLB head office say to open the roof.

[nextyear]

On to game 4 today at 4:07 pm. It would be good to see Dickey and the Blue Jays defense shut down the Royals. These Royals can really hit.

 

On the offensive side of the ball, the Blue Jays need Bautista to get a couple of big hits tonight, Goins needs to have 4 or 5 good at-bats (getting on base 2 - 3 times would be nice), Pillar needs to keep rolling as I am sure that he will, Ben Revere hasn't done much this series, hopefully he is ok, Donaldson has to keep hitting like Donaldson.

 

It would be good to see Martin have a big night and be able to catch Dickey without too many passed balls. If Dickey is pitching well then Martin will have a tough time catching him.

[labadee]

i was watching re-runs of the game, and i'm so disappointed of how they just kept talking about the jays' reputation of sign stealing when goins was up. I hate these announcers

[avatar22]

i was watching re-runs of the game, and i'm so disappointed of how they just kept talking about the jays' reputation of sign stealing when goins was up. I hate these announcers

 

I don't remember them mentioning the Jays having a reputation for sign stealing even once. Although I will concede I did have to go to bed by 10:30 for work, so maybe they mentioned it in the 8th or 9th.

 

But overall I have been happy enough with the announcers. I haven't noticed any bias against the Jays as others have claimed. Both my wife and I have found them fair. And to be honest with you, when they do say something complimentary about the Jays, I find it's more meaningful because they're not paid by Rogers.

[avatar22]

I'm really worried about our bullpen. The loss of Cecil has left a gaping hole in it. Sanchez is okay, but unpredictable. Osuna is better, but he's only one man. What else have we got? Lowe is so-so. Hawkins has been very weak lately, and they seem unwilling or unable to use him more than once every 3-4 games.

 

Last night scared me. Yeah we won, but they scored 8 runs on us! And they did it mostly without home runs, which makes it all the more troubling.

 

Unless the bats stay really really hot over the next three games, I think we're toast. That or we get some amazing performances from our starters. I only hope Dickey brings his A game and works some knuckleball kryptonite on those KC bats.

[Jonn]

I don't remember them mentioning the Jays having a reputation for sign stealing even once. Although I will concede I did have to go to bed by 10:30 for work, so maybe they mentioned it in the 8th or 9th.

 

But overall I have been happy enough with the announcers. I haven't noticed any bias against the Jays as others have claimed. Both my wife and I have found them fair. And to be honest with you, when they do say something complimentary about the Jays, I find it's more meaningful because they're not paid by Rogers.

 

They mentioned it mutiple times in one inning. It was pretty annoying because it was pretty obvious the Royals were stealing signs as well. Its part of the game. As long as you are not using cameras and tricks anything on the field is fair game.

[intentional wok]

Damn I really hate the Royals and their singles parade. How many groundballs get through the infield? A lot of them. What a bunch of lucky s***.

 

Cue the worship of "being able to beat you".

 

I mean, yeah the Royals get credit for having good ABs and making contact, but turfing enough balls like that isn't exactly a flawless way to win. It's not even a good way to win. It's the worship of a totally inefficient way to win that bugs me.

[Governator]

They mentioned it mutiple times in one inning. It was pretty annoying because it was pretty obvious the Royals were stealing signs as well. Its part of the game. As long as you are not using cameras and tricks anything on the field is fair game.

 

They can have at it stealing the knuckleball sign all game long today. Good luck with that.

[RealAccountant]

Royals dont strike out and this plays heavily in their favor

[candymartinez]

I'm really worried about our bullpen. The loss of Cecil has left a gaping hole in it. Sanchez is okay, but unpredictable. Osuna is better, but he's only one man. What else have we got? Lowe is so-so. Hawkins has been very weak lately, and they seem unwilling or unable to use him more than once every 3-4 games.

 

Last night scared me. Yeah we won, but they scored 8 runs on us! And they did it mostly without home runs, which makes it all the more troubling.

 

Unless the bats stay really really hot over the next three games, I think we're toast. That or we get some amazing performances from our starters. I only hope Dickey brings his A game and works some knuckleball kryptonite on those KC bats.

 

You don't know much about this team, do you?

[RealAccountant]

At the very least this win ensured that Rogers will have 6 playoff home games. That's ought to be worth something

[HERPDERP]

While I admit Hirschbeck is a s***** umpire and Tulo probably didn't deserve to get ejected, I'm happy that he did (and at a point in the game where his loss didn't matter)

 

Its about time that the Jays hitters got a reality check with the over the top whining, justified or not. And for the record I thought both called strikes for Martin and Tulo were both borderline so they could have gone either way. They should have protected the strike zone.

 

Hopefully this leads to the Jays being more aggressive and flipping that outside pitch the other way.

[RealAccountant]

While I admit Hirschbeck is a s***** umpire and Tulo probably didn't deserve to get ejected, I'm happy that he did (and at a point in the game where his loss didn't matter)

 

Its about time that the Jays hitters got a reality check with the over the top whining, justified or not. And for the record I thought both called strikes for Martin and Tulo were both borderline so they could have gone either way. They should have protected the strike zone.

 

Hopefully this leads to the Jays being more aggressive and flipping that outside pitch the other way.

 

In the post game Tulo said it wasn't just that one call

[AdamGreenwood]

I can't believe the Royals are letting Chris Young start. Awesome!!!

[Terminator]

Damn I really hate the Royals and their singles parade. How many groundballs get through the infield? A lot of them. What a bunch of lucky s***.

 

Cue the worship of "being able to beat you".

 

I mean, yeah the Royals get credit for having good ABs and making contact, but turfing enough balls like that isn't exactly a flawless way to win. It's not even a good way to win. It's the worship of a totally inefficient way to win that bugs me.

 

"That's Royals baseball." - Reynolds and everyone else at Fox

[RealAccountant]

You guys realize it's not just luck

 

They don't strike out and make good contact

[reedjohnsonfan]

I can't believe the Royals are letting Chris Young start. Awesome!!!

 

Guy has a 25% GB rate, if they don't hit a couple bombs off him I'd be shocked.

[reedjohnsonfan]

You guys realize it's not just luck

 

They don't strike out and make good contact

 

I know but he actually does suck, I caught a couple of his starts this year (don't know why) and was shocked he wasn't getting pounded. Somehow he's overachieved for a few years now.

 

Edit: Oh sorry you meant the Royals not Chris gas can Young

[Terminator]

You guys realize it's not just luck

 

They don't strike out and make good contact

 

They are a good team no doubt. I think we are the better team but the better team doesn't always win.

[Governator]

Dickey vs Young might be the oldest combined pitchers to ever face off in a game in the postseason. Just a guess, it's got to be close.

[glory]

The Jays have Young and then Volquez away from KC. They can win both games. They NEED both games. Getting the series back to KC is obviously vital but getting it back there with a lead is more important.

[puphood]

Have they said officially who is pitching game 5 for the jays yet?

[Terminator]

Fangraphs Playoff Odds have us with a 31.8% chance of advancing. It was 20% before yesterday's win.

[Laika]

Chris Young does similar things to Estrada. He throws slow fastballs up in the zone, with a high spin rate.

 

Look at his career numbers, they are crazy:

 

3.69 ERA; 4.39 FIP; 4.87 xFIP

.247 BABIP

8.1% HR/FB

 

Two things happen when Chris Young pitches.

 

1) The high fastballs with a high spin rate create a higher launch angle than batters want when they make contact.

2) The low velocity of his fastballs makes it more difficult for hitters to achieve a high exit velocity (getting under the ball due to the high spin rate and location also contributes here).

 

Now observe the donut hole:

 

 

Chris Young lives in that donut hole.

 

Young has a contact ability that goes somewhat ignored and under-appreciated by FIP theory. Some of his career ERA-FIP differential is his spacious home parks, but some of it is skill.

 

Don't be completely shocked if Young is frustratingly effective today, and gets a lot of flyouts that just don't carry.

[admin]

I had no worry when we were down two to Texas and no worry down two to KC. Since the trade deadline, I feel confident we can win every single game. I don't think I ever had that feeling as a Jays fan. Even Dickey who I've had zero confidence in, I feel comfortable with him going out there the last several months. Volquez won't have another start like he did. There should be no reason we shouldn't score 5+ runs every game here on out.

[reedjohnsonfan]

Don't be completely shocked if Young is frustratingly effective today, and gets a lot of flyouts that just don't carry.

 

While that's true and a good post, the eye test certainly makes it seem like he is a garbage pitcher. With Estrada, it's clear he has an excellent changeup so can get away with high fastball. Young doesn't seem to have any plus pitches IIRC.

[Stangstag]

Have they said officially who is pitching game 5 for the jays yet?

 

Gotta think their gonna throw Estrada. Price and Stroman for potential games 6 & 7

[KingKat]

While that's true and a good post, the eye test certainly makes it seem like he is a garbage pitcher. With Estrada, it's clear he has an excellent changeup so can get away with high fastball. Young doesn't seem to have any plus pitches IIRC.

 

Of the two, I'm not sure Estrada is the one with the better FIP beating track record.

[Laika]

While that's true and a good post, the eye test certainly makes it seem like he is a garbage pitcher. With Estrada, it's clear he has an excellent changeup so can get away with high fastball. Young doesn't seem to have any plus pitches IIRC.

 

I'm not sure why the eye test would have much relevance when we have so much data. Slider is decent though:

 

http://m.mlb.com/video/topic/94814812/v520580583/houkc-gm1-young-strikes-out-seven-in-relief-outing/?query=Chris+Young

 

The Blue Jays should still eat his babies, of course. It's a shame if they don't.

[EMK19]

I suppose we'd be very reluctant on having Price pitch on short rest for game 5, but I'm also thinking it might be a better idea to have Estrada pitch at KC instead of here at RC with his HR vulnerability. Then again I guess KC as a team aren't that huge of a power threat... Price I think could benefit from pitching at home here with all the fan support instead of away at KC (I could see their fans retaliating with their own Price chants, and I feel Price may be quite mentally vulnerable right now). There's cons and benefits to both approaches but I'd guess they'll take the safer route routine wise and go with Estrada for game 5. But maybe the result tonight may factor into that decision also.