Official MiLB/Prospects Thread

[AMS528]

I put Devonte Brown into at least the semi-interesting kinda borderline almost noticeable category, possible backup OF and pinch runner.

 

A 35% strikeout rate as a 24 year old in AA doesn't bode well, but maybe they figure that out.

[metafour]

Bonilla is just a lottery ticket as are most international signings. Always hard to know how they'll adjust to life in North America. We got Kirk for like $15,000, so it equals out.

 

When you spend $4+ million on an IFA kid the expectations are rightfully high, even with them being 16 years old. That is about the same amount of money that Yesavage will end up signing for. Those signings are seen as impact-caliber talents - when the player can't even perform in the FCL it is a really bad outcome. Any 16 year old who they deem good enough to receive $4 million should have tools; and tools alone should at least leads to SOME success in rookie-ball.

 

They haven't had much success with their top IFA signings in recent years, which also lines up with draft picks not developing either. They really need to change something from a player development standpoint.

[Laika]

When you spend $4+ million on an IFA kid the expectations are rightfully high, even with them being 16 years old. That is about the same amount of money that Yesavage will end up signing for. Those signings are seen as impact-caliber talents - when the player can't even perform in the FCL it is a really bad outcome. Any 16 year old who they deem good enough to receive $4 million should have tools; and tools alone should at least leads to SOME success in rookie-ball.

 

They haven't had much success with their top IFA signings in recent years, which also lines up with draft picks not developing either. They really need to change something from a player development standpoint.

 

They can command big bonuses but they still fail at an incredibly high rate - much much higher than the Rule 4 draft, even on the high school pick side

 

Just go look at the top bonuses from basically any year.

 

2016:

 

Kevin Maitan, 4.25M

Luis Almanzar, 4M

Lazarito Armenteros, 3M

Alfredo Rodriguez, 7M

Yasel Antuna, 3.9M

Abraham Gutierrez, 3.5M

 

2019

 

Robert Puason, 5.1M

Bayron Lora, 4.2M

Erick Pena, 3.8M

 

2022

 

Yoelqui Céspedes, OF, Cuba – White Sox ($2,050,000) # More »

Oscar Colas, LHP/OF, Cuba -- TBD

Wilman Diaz, SS, Venezuela – Dodgers ($2,697,500) # More »

Carlos Colmenarez, SS, Venezuela – Rays ($3,000,000) # More »

Armando Cruz, SS, Dominican Republic – Nationals ($3,900,000) # More »

Cristian Hernandez, SS, Dominican Republic – Cubs ($3,000,000) More »

Pedro Leon, OF, Cuba – Astros ($4,000,000) # More »

Jesus Galiz, C, Venezuela – Dodgers ($812,500) # More »

Rickardo Perez, C, Venezuela – Phillies ($1,000,000) More »

Yiddi Cappe, SS, Cuba – Marlins ($3,500,000) # More »

 

 

Go look up any given year. The league collectively goes like 3/30 on players that get $1M or more and maybe 2/10 on guys who get $2M or more. Possibly not even a success rate that high.

 

So it's not some travesty that Bonnilla sucks or some big whiff. I mean yeah it's a whiff but he had a 90% chance of never making it anyway.

[metafour]

Go look up any given year. The league collectively goes like 3/30 on players that get $1M or more and maybe 2/10 on guys who get $2M or more. Possibly not even a success rate that high.

 

So it's not some travesty that Bonnilla sucks or some big whiff. I mean yeah it's a whiff but he had a 90% chance of never making it anyway.

 

It's not a travesty, but when you go what seems like 3-4 years straight where its the same story, and on the local side you see the same pattern of top draft picks failing to develop over the same sample period, it seems more than just coincidence or a result of "well they're 16 years old lottery tickets and you never know what you'll get".

 

How many of those teams that had big-money busts had the same result multiple years in a row? The Jays have also seen a big drop off in "low and mid-tier" IFA signings succeeding as well. It's not like they have any recent examples of guys like Moreno or Kirk popping up to become major talents to offset busts like Bonilla.

[John_Havok]

It's not a travesty, but when you go what seems like 3-4 years straight where its the same story, and on the local side you see the same pattern of top draft picks failing to develop over the same sample period, it seems more than just coincidence or a result of "well they're 16 years old lottery tickets and you never know what you'll get".

 

How many of those teams that had big-money busts had the same result multiple years in a row? The Jays have also seen a big drop off in "low and mid-tier" IFA signings succeeding as well. It's not like they have any recent examples of guys like Moreno or Kirk popping up to become major talents to offset busts like Bonilla.

 

Theyve also signed non 16 year olds like Gurriel Jr and Yariel. Take the risk profile of high schoolers getting drafted at 18, and then mutiply that by like... 100 and you get close to the risk profile of a 16 year old

[max silver]

Jesus Christ Enmanuel Bonilla has been horrific for a 4.1 million dollar signing. 35% strikeout rate in FCL and not even any power to compensate so far.

 

Alan Roden has been pretty bad in AAA since his promotion. Walks and strikeouts haven't been bad at least, but he's not hitting at all.

 

Besides the Buffalo call ups, there is basically not a single real positive performance I can see for hitters from the FCL on up to New Hampshire. Like it is barren. Nimmala managing to recover his year slightly is the best news we've got. It's no wonder that there's like 10 posts every two weeks in this thread. It's just sadness.

 

There's I guess some pitchers ( Trenton Wallace, Fernando Perez, Watts-Brown) who've looked decent but nothing very exciting. I think post Horwitz call up and with Jimenez having a decent shot at losing his prospect status with all of Bo's injuries, the Orelvis suspension and RT being injured all year, this is pretty easily a bottom 5 farm system, and arguably the worst farm system in the majors.

 

"Bare cupboard". The deals for Kikuchi/Green/Garcia better bring something decent.

 

Yeah it's generally been a rough season for the minors. As you mentioned all of the guys in Buffalo who were having offensive success have found their ways up to the big league team so there's little of interest to follow. Rainer Nunez has been hitting much better in recent months after a terrible April (133 wRC+ in his last 49 games in AA) but he was one of the few relative success stories I could even find. Kasevich hit for a good average for quite some time but this was completely tempered by lack of power, Nimmala has provided a ton of power output since returning from the developmental list but he's still really struggled with strikeouts

[Olerud363]

Bonilla is just a lottery ticket as are most international signings. Always hard to know how they'll adjust to life in North America. We got Kirk for like $15,000, so it equals out.

 

I'll get torn apart on this but the weird thing is you often know like after two months of minor league games. Both international signing and high school draft picks.

 

They show up. They hit .200 with 70 ks in 50 games and you know. They hit .300 with 30 walks and 30 ks and you know.

 

Nothing is completely black and white, but most of the so called counter examples Davis Schneider, Jansen even Mookie Betts had good k/bb ratios.

 

Like one guy has 30/30 k/bb and the other 10/70 at 18 and you know.

 

Kirk/Vlad/Bo you absolutely knew after a few weeks... guy shows up hits .400 like Bo did... guy shows up hits nothing like Toman did... but they can't tell this with these young players before that for some reason.

[Olerud363]

Kirk/Vlad/Bo you absolutely knew after a few weeks... guy shows up hits .400 like Bo did... guy shows up hits nothing like Toman did... but they can't tell this with these young players before that for some reason.

 

And Kirk and Bo are an absolute mess at 25 after raking for 7 years... it's a crazy hard game and these guys that are starting out hitting .199 with 80 ks in their first 50 games (and that is where Nimilla is back to after a cold week or so) are starting behind and have a really tough road even if they are only 18.

[The Cats Ass]

Nimmala is ranked at 55 on Keith Law’s updated list.

[Olerud363]

Nimmala is ranked at 55 on Keith LawÂ’s updated list.

 

Even with the strike out rate I was trying to figure out how he is hitting under .200... a guy who hit's the ball hard usually hits for average against minor league defenses... even with sky high k rate

 

go/ao is about 0.5. Look at the trouble Orelvis Martinez had once he saw advanced pitching and better defenses. Look at Daulton Varsho.

 

Just can't see a guy with this kind of k rate and likely pop up rate succeeding. Of course lots of time to change things. And (not joking) with current trends in the game could probably put up 7 or 8 WAR with a .190 average, walks, power, elite defense and elite baserunning. Once the league average is .220.

[AMS528]

Fangraphs updated their top 100.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board

 

Orelvis at 99 and RT at 100. Nearly but not quite dropping out of there.

Edited July 29, 2024 by AMS528

[Terminator]

Fangraphs updated their top 100.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board

 

Orelvis at 99 and RT at 100. Nearly dearly but not quite dropping out of there.

 

 

Big Ross claiming that he has a couple of Top 100 prospects

[AMS528]

 

Big Ross claiming that he has a couple of Top 100 prospects

 

Gone for likely all of next year, and suspended for PEDs. What a duo.

[Krylian]

Gone for likely all of next year, and suspended for PEDs. What a duo.

 

Let's go Blue Jays.....

[Joltin Joe]

Will Berroa be everyday player for Jays?

[Joltin Joe]

Kaprielian, former first round pick and top prospect of Yankees. Traded for Sonny Gray. He's in our system. Is he done or is there a chance?

[Spanky__99]

Will Berroa be everyday player for Jays?

 

Bench player.

 

Kaprielian, former first round pick and top prospect of Yankees. Traded for Sonny Gray. He's in our system. Is he done or is there a chance?

 

What?

[Abomination]

Will Berroa be everyday player for Jays?

 

He's probably Kiermaier's replacement at a fraction of the cost.

[Spanky__99]

He's probably Kiermaier's replacement at a fraction of the cost.

 

No way.

[Joltin Joe]

 

 

What?

I remember hearing on radio we signed him a few months back. He had good arm

[L54]

I remember hearing on radio we signed him a few months back. He had good arm

 

He is with Toronto but he’s not very good

[Spanky__99]

I remember hearing on radio we signed him a few months back. He had good arm

 

Hah, yeah last month, but he suxxxxxxxxx

[Pendleton]

I remember hearing on radio we signed him a few months back. He had good arm

 

Looks like three of his four starts with Buffalo have not gone well...

[Joltin Joe]

Looks like three of his four starts with Buffalo have not gone well...

Where can I find this info at?

[Pendleton]

Where can I find this info at?

 

https://www.milb.com/player/james-kaprielian-621076

[AMS528]

Given the state of our farm and looking at these new prospects who have actually performed this year, I feel like they basically immediately take up positions in our top ten, especially from the Kikuchi trade.

 

Is Bloss at the top of our list given the injury/suspension? He's anywhere from 1-3. Loperfido is probably 4-5, depending on where you want to slot Yesavage in the top 5.

 

This rescues our farm from being worse than like the Angel's.

 

Edit: Just realized Loperfido lost eligibility. So he won't be part of the lists.

[Brownie19]

Given the state of our farm and looking at these new prospects who have actually performed this year, I feel like they basically immediately take up positions in our top ten, especially from the Kikuchi trade.

 

Is Bloss at the top of our list given the injury/suspension? He's anywhere from 1-3. Loperfido is probably 4-5, depending on where you want to slot Yesavage in the top 5.

 

This rescues our farm from being worse than like the Angel's.

 

Edit: Just realized Loperfido lost eligibility. So he won't be part of the lists.

 

Yes Bloss will be our #1 prospect and yes these recent trades will help bolster the farm system. This is a good step in the right direction to drag it out of the bottom 5 in baseball. Good news is it's possibly to turn your farm system around in just a few years.

[glory]

Given the state of our farm and looking at these new prospects who have actually performed this year, I feel like they basically immediately take up positions in our top ten, especially from the Kikuchi trade.

 

Is Bloss at the top of our list given the injury/suspension? He's anywhere from 1-3. Loperfido is probably 4-5, depending on where you want to slot Yesavage in the top 5.

 

This rescues our farm from being worse than like the Angel's.

 

Edit: Just realized Loperfido lost eligibility. So he won't be part of the lists.

 

System still lacks high end prospects but the depth has definitely improved. Just have to hope a couple pan out.

[John_Havok]

System still lacks high end prospects but the depth has definitely improved. Just have to hope a couple pan out.

 

This. As much as the system has been improved woth these trades, there's still no elite guys.

 

Not that there should have been any expectations to land one from the guys they're trading.

[AMS528]

This. As much as the system has been improved woth these trades, there's still no elite guys.

 

Not that there should have been any expectations to land one from the guys they're trading.

 

Is there much of a chance that Yesavage could become that or is he more of a finished product (as I've heard he's super advanced)?