Official MiLB/Prospects Thread

[Terminator]

They should have called up Horwitz instead of Lukes and got his bat into the lineup somehow tonight. Dude is on a heater.

[Terminator]

I get that they don't want to call up prospects only to have them ride pine but there is no way in hell anyone can convince me that Espinal, Biggio and Lukes are all better than Horwitz, Barger and Clement.

 

I'm not saying all 3 need to be up but with Kiermaier and Bo out it would have been a great time to at least call up a guy like Horwitz and give him some ABs. He can play some LF and Whit can play 2B.

[THANOS]

I get that they don't want to call up prospects only to have them ride pine but there is no way in hell anyone can convince me that Espinal, Biggio and Lukes are all better than Horwitz, Barger and Clement.

 

I'm not saying all 3 need to be up but with Kiermaier and Bo out it would have been a great time to at least call up a guy like Horwitz and give him some ABs. He can play some LF and Whit can play 2B.

 

At this point, I think they're up next year dude. You can only bring up 2 extra dudes in September, and if Ryu & Manoah are staying up/healthy, I think the 28 man is below:

 

1. Merrifield

2. Bichette

3. Belt

4. Guerrero Jr

5. Springer

6. Schneider

7. Jansen

8. Chapman

9. Kiermaier

 

10. Varsho

11. Kirk

12. Biggio

13. DeJong

14. Espinal

 

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

1. Gausman

2. Berrios

3. Bassitt

4. Kikuchi

5. Manoah

6. Ryu

 

7. Romano

8. Hicks

9. Green

10. Mayza

11. Richards

12. Cabrera

13. Swanson

14. Garcia

 

The only bubble guy that Horowitz could possibly be up for is Espinal, because DeJong fills his roll already. I would do it, but not sure the Jays do.

[AMS528]

In Buffalo tonight...

 

Horwitz: 2 for 3, 2 HR, 1 BB (LOL - OPS up to .933)

Martinez: 3 for 4, 2B

Barger: 3 for 4

 

Did Horwitz make some kind of swing change? It seems unlikely given he was already hitting decently, but going from having just 2 HR's for most of the season to suddenly hitting 7 more all at once is pretty large shift in performance.

 

With that kind of power you can hope that he has a chance at turning out like Lyle Overbay for the Jays in 2006.

[THANOS]

Did Horwitz make some kind of swing change? It seems unlikely given he was already hitting decently, but going from having just 2 HR's for most of the season to suddenly hitting 7 more all at once is pretty large shift in performance.

 

With that kind of power you can hope that he has a chance at turning out like Lyle Overbay for the Jays in 2006.

 

He must have made a tweak during the ASB. He's been hitting for power ever since then. He probably made a slight angle update in his swing and practiced in the cages for a few days to perfect it.

[WryNGinger]

He must have made a tweak during the ASB. He's been hitting for power ever since then. He probably made a slight angle update in his swing and practiced in the cages for a few days to perfect it.

 

Yah you hope it's a swing change that is sustainable.

 

Was he hitting long fly outs when it was cool and now those are going over the fence or maybe he has played in some HR friendly stadiums during this streak?

 

If everyone suddenly starts hitting for power I'm looking for at environmental/Park reasons as well.

[Stangstag]

Actually damn near everyone is hitting in Buffalo. And I mean EVERYONE.

 

-Horwitz on fire

-The actual prospects like Barger and Orelvis (for a 21 year old) are hitting

-The veteran minor leaguers such as Lukes and Clement

-Rafael Lantigua is a midget but he's putting up numbers

-Luis De Los Santos is up to a 105 wRC+. He's never hit well at any level but is a plus defensive SS from what little I've been able to read about him

-Cam Eden has a .360 OBP, is apparently a good CFer and is 42 of 45 on steals this year

-I gave up on Tanner Morris but even he's been mashing since a slow April

-And of course there was Babe Schneider who is now the best hitter in MLB

 

Does this place turn in to a hitter's park in the summer or something? From everything I've read it's fairly neutral for a AAA park.

 

Where’s our boy Otto

[Olerud363]

Imagine thinking that Toronto has a small compete window when Schneider, Barger, Horwitz and Orelvis are all on the cusp

 

The gap between the Orioles top 4 (Holliday (19), Westburg (24), Cowser (23) and Kjerstad (24)) and the Jays on the cusp guys (Martinez 21, Schneider 24, Barger 23 and Horwitz 25) has narrowed, and not because the Orioles guys have stopped hitting .300 .420 .550 as a group (they continued that) but because if you choose the right date (like maybe May 11th or something) the Jays group has also hit .300 .420 .550 for like 3 months.

 

And while it seems the Jays guys are way older the sum age is 90 for the Orioles guys and 93 for the Jays guys.

 

The Orioles guys are 1-4 on their own team, all top 100 in baseball, with Holliday the greatest prospect ever (like Ted Williams playing short stop).

 

The Jays guys are like scattered in their own top 20 none in the top 100 in baseball.

 

However the Orioles guys were viewed as the greatest prospects ever since late last year and haven't moved up or down. They Jays guys were complete failures with a 0.01 chance of being a regular (Martinez), no one had ever heard of him (Schneider), and a projected powerless .260 hitter with 3 homers (Horwitz), with only Barger being viewed as a prospect (I guess he took a step back from 2022 in a way, but has developed more patience and held his own through injury, so in another way he made progress.

 

Jays guys have moved up and are now the gritty blue collar core of unheralded guys that will battle the greatest franchise ever, with the greatest prospects ever, on track to win 1100 games over the next 10 years, and all the Jays guys can hope for is to occasionally sneak into the 3rd wild card spot and upset them in the playoffs (like teams occasionally upset the Dodgers). That outlook is way better than what it was 2.5 months ago.

[wamco]

At this point, I think they're up next year dude. You can only bring up 2 extra dudes in September, and if Ryu & Manoah are staying up/healthy, I think the 28 man is below:

 

1. Merrifield

2. Bichette

3. Belt

4. Guerrero Jr

5. Springer

6. Schneider

7. Jansen

8. Chapman

9. Kiermaier

 

10. Varsho

11. Kirk

12. Biggio

13. DeJong

14. Espinal

 

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

1. Gausman

2. Berrios

3. Bassitt

4. Kikuchi

5. Manoah

6. Ryu

 

7. Romano

8. Hicks

9. Green

10. Mayza

11. Richards

12. Cabrera

13. Swanson

14. Garcia

 

The only bubble guy that Horowitz could possibly be up for is Espinal, because DeJong fills his roll already. I would do it, but not sure the Jays do.

 

There is no downside to that move whatsoever. Should have been done a week ago

[L54]

There is no downside to that move whatsoever. Should have been done a week ago

 

Nope there isn’t now with DeJong around. There’s enough versatility I’d rather give Horowitz a shot and see what he can do

[Laika]

The gap between the Orioles top 4 (Holliday (19), Westburg (24), Cowser (23) and Kjerstad (24)) and the Jays on the cusp guys (Martinez 21, Schneider 24, Barger 23 and Horwitz 25) has narrowed, and not because the Orioles guys have stopped hitting .300 .420 .550 as a group (they continued that) but because if you choose the right date (like maybe May 11th or something) the Jays group has also hit .300 .420 .550 for like 3 months.

 

And while it seems the Jays guys are way older the sum age is 90 for the Orioles guys and 93 for the Jays guys.

 

The Orioles guys are 1-4 on their own team, all top 100 in baseball, with Holliday the greatest prospect ever (like Ted Williams playing short stop).

 

The Jays guys are like scattered in their own top 20 none in the top 100 in baseball.

 

However the Orioles guys were viewed as the greatest prospects ever since late last year and haven't moved up or down. They Jays guys were complete failures with a 0.01 chance of being a regular (Martinez), no one had ever heard of him (Schneider), and a projected powerless .260 hitter with 3 homers (Horwitz), with only Barger being viewed as a prospect (I guess he took a step back from 2022 in a way, but has developed more patience and held his own through injury, so in another way he made progress.

 

Jays guys have moved up and are now the gritty blue collar core of unheralded guys that will battle the greatest franchise ever, with the greatest prospects ever, on track to win 1100 games over the next 10 years, and all the Jays guys can hope for is to occasionally sneak into the 3rd wild card spot and upset them in the playoffs (like teams occasionally upset the Dodgers). That outlook is way better than what it was 2.5 months ago.

 

The entertainment value of hyperbole aside...

 

It was always at least conceivable that rankings bias was causing people to underrate Toronto's farm system for a window of time in 2023. Hopefully all of the pop up relief pitching and some of these position players in AAA will stick right away. It would be a HUGE boon to Toronto's mid to long term competitive outlook to have, say, two starting quality position players, a few good relievers, and maybe a backend SP all in AA/AAA right now.

 

Between Barger, Schneider, Orelvis, Palmegiani, Leo Jimenez, Horwitz, Juenger, Zulueta, Pearson, Danner, Cooke, Fluharty, Tiedemann, Burnette.... maybe they have that all in the queue.

[Olerud363]

The entertainment value of hyperbole aside...

 

Is it hyperbole?

 

1. The Orioles prospects are hitting .320 .420 .550 or something as a group

 

Holiday - .342 .465 .541, Cowser .330 .459 .537, Westburg .295 .372 .567, Kjerstad .323 .393 .597

 

Not hyperbole, literally true.

 

2. The Blue Jays 4 are hitting .320 .420 .550 since data X, if you really cherry pick X right (somewhere in May or June).

 

Not sure if it's hyperbole. I heard Schneider was on fire since date X, and Howritz has all his homers bunched up in a few weeks raising his average a lot. Martinez had an historically slow start but got hot, and Barger is hitting a bit better. So I think if you cherry picked the right date you might be able to find in the last X weeks those 4 hit .320 .420 .550.

 

3. The Orioles 4 are the greatest prospect class ever, and Jackson Holliday is the best prospect ever.

 

If hyperbole then what team had the best set of 4 prospects ever and when? Who was the greatest prospect ever.

 

4. The Orioles are going to win 1100 games over the next 10 years

 

Probably Hyperbole. The greatest 10 year runs are more like 970 or something.

 

5. The post Bo/Vlad (or big contract Bo/Vlad) Jays will sneak into the 3rd wild card spot with the help of the medium sized 4 (Schneider/Barger/Howritz/Martinez).

 

I could see that happening. Not hyperbole.

[Olerud363]

I wonder if something weird is going on in the minor leagues with the automated strike zone. Orioles prospects are all hitting like prime Frank Thomas, or 18 year old lightning cat Vlad. And after slow starts Jays prospects are hitting like that too.

 

Someone mentioned even some midget guy is hitting great.

 

1. Early understanding of automated strike zone and advanced hitting labs make Orioles prospects crazy good.

2. Jays slower to understand all this but clue in sometime in May.

[Laika]

Is it hyperbole?

Not hyperbole.

 

The hyperbole is just the inclusion of Holliday. Odds are he out WARs the 7 other players combined.

 

But, I agree that the Buffalo quartet might be closer to Cowser/Westburg/Kjerstad than people think. I don't think those guys are necessarily that special.

[THANOS]

There is no downside to that move whatsoever. Should have been done a week ago

 

Nope there isn’t now with DeJong around. There’s enough versatility I’d rather give Horowitz a shot and see what he can do

 

He's definitely earned it now that the power has emerged and everything else and remained.

[Olerud363]

The hyperbole is just the inclusion of Holliday. Odds are he out WARs the 7 other players combined.

 

But, I agree that the Buffalo quartet might be closer to Cowser/Westburg/Kjerstad than people think. I don't think those guys are necessarily that special.

 

If Vladimir Guerrero JR can fail why can't Holliday? I guess because he plays short, he will have trouble getting -20 defense scores so even if he hits like grown up Vlad, and plays defense like Bo Bichette that is still a 4 WAR floor.

[Olerud363]

The hyperbole is just the inclusion of Holliday. Odds are he out WARs the 7 other players combined.

 

But, I agree that the Buffalo quartet might be closer to Cowser/Westburg/Kjerstad than people think. I don't think those guys are necessarily that special.

 

Jackson Holliday = Barry Bonds at short stop = 190 career WAR

Davis Schneider = Chase Utley = 71 career WAR

Addison Barger = Aaron Hill = 30 career WAR

Orelvis Martinez = Troy Glauss = 40 career WAR

Spencer Horwitz = Sean Casey = 20 career WAR

 

Cowser/Westburg/Kjerstad = Vladimir Guerrero Jr part II = 20 WAR combined.

 

Total Holliday = 190 career WAR

Total other 7 = 180 WAR

 

You are right, Hoilliday will out-war the other 7

[AMS528]

Jackson Holliday's position really does give him a solid floor even if he hits nowhere near as well as he's hitting now.

 

But man were Vlad's age 19 hitting numbers unbelievable. He has underachieved so hard, and we have completely lost years of cheap value if he had worked things out which he certainly still has a chance to do. There was a reason he was the best hitting prospect in a while and why genuine prospect analysts were saying he was going to be a HOF hitter.

[metafour]

Spencer Horwitz 3 for 3 with 2 doubles so far today. Last one was a 100.3 EV line drive.

 

Getting kinda comical right now.

[THANOS]

Spencer Horwitz 3 for 3 with 2 doubles so far today. Last one was a 100.3 EV line drive.

 

Getting kinda comical right now.

 

He's on the 40-man already, luckily, so he can come up near the end of September and still be eligible for the post-season if we want him on it. I believe the rules are you need to be on the 40-man on 8/31 to be playoff eligible.

 

That said, if Belt or Guerrero go down, I think he's up. Right now, he'd be competing with Belt for ABs, not Espinal/Biggio.

[Brownie19]

Spencer Horwitz 3 for 3 with 2 doubles so far today. Last one was a 100.3 EV line drive.

 

Getting kinda comical right now.

 

Still just a 0.158 ISO heading into the game today. Not many slap hitting 1st basemen in the game today.

[glory]

Still just a 0.158 ISO heading into the game today. Not many slap hitting 1st basemen in the game today.

 

Yeah I think Horowitz’s long term playability depends on whether his recent power surge is a change he’s made or maybe figuring something out from a power standpoint. He has a great profile aside from that so if he develops even decent power then he should be a good 1B/DH option.

[metafour]

Still just a 0.158 ISO heading into the game today. Not many slap hitting 1st basemen in the game today.

 

These are his splits since returning back to AAA from his call-up earlier this year (doesn't include today's game):

 

151 PA, .375/.490/.625, 180 wRC+, 7 HR, 17.2 BB%, 12.6 K%, .250 ISO

 

Is it a fluke? Who knows, but his overall offensive package is enough to give him a real shot to test the theory. It's entirely possible that he is growing into his power and it is starting to emerge.

[Brownie19]

These are his splits since returning back to AAA from his call-up earlier this year (doesn't include today's game):

 

151 PA, .375/.490/.625, 180 wRC+, 7 HR, 17.2 BB%, 12.6 K%, .250 ISO

 

Is it a fluke? Who knows, but his overall offensive package is enough to give him a real shot to test the theory. It's entirely possible that he is growing into his power and it is starting to emerge.

 

We can certainly hope he's for real.

[Jonn]

It would be lovely to have Horwitz up the problem is where he would play. You really don't want him in the OF. But sure he could play in a corner if you really need him to. It might just not be the best defensive decision.

 

Honestly Horwitz could probably provide similar production to Belt right now but he's blocked by Belt for atleast this year.

[Captain_Obvious]

It would be lovely to have Horwitz up the problem is where he would play. You really don't want him in the OF. But sure he could play in a corner if you really need him to. It might just not be the best defensive decision.

 

Honestly Horwitz could probably provide similar production to Belt right now but he's blocked by Belt for atleast this year.

 

Agreed. There is simply no room for him in the current roster. I hope the Blue Jays give their young players every opportunity to make the team next year and avoid signing old vetrins who provide presents.

[Captain_Obvious]

I also want to add that this Team Trainer should rate as Legendary in all areas in OOTP25 next year. It is remarkable how healthy the team has been overall so far. I hope I did not just jinx it.

[Terminator]

Not sure what they are doing down in Buffalo. Barger is playing more OF lately, Clement at SS and De Los Santos at 3B.

 

We need LF and 3B next year and if we were going to start Barger anywhere next year you'd think it would be 3B but he's been playing that the least. They probably envision him being a UT guy and are getting him OF reps to prep him for that.

 

EDIT: Whoops I forgot Orelvis. He's been playing 3B mostly that's why Barger has been playing more OF.

[Stangstag]

Not sure what they are doing down in Buffalo. Barger is playing more OF lately, Clement at SS and De Los Santos at 3B.

 

We need LF and 3B next year and if we were going to start Barger anywhere next year you'd think it would be 3B but he's been playing that the least. They probably envision him being a UT guy and are getting him OF reps to prep him for that.

 

EDIT: Whoops I forgot Orelvis. He's been playing 3B mostly that's why Barger has been playing more OF.

 

What happened to Otto??

[RobinThicc]

What happened to Otto??

He's on the 60 day IL