Official MiLB/Prospects Thread

[max silver]

And still a ridiculous babip!!!

 

A high 100's/low 200's BABIP looks to be standard for Orelvis going back to his high A debut in 2021.

[Brownie19]

Yeah he's like a Ryan Noda type

 

Seems doubtful that it's sustainable, but Ryan Noda is currently really good. 147 wRC+ and 1.4 WAR this year.

[Sorrow]

I like Horwitz but wish he had some positional versatility. If he could play a passable LF/RF and 1B he'd be a nice bench piece/platoon bat. He's always walked, doesn't K at a stupidly high rate. He reminds me of Frank Catalanotto for some reason.

[Terminator]

I like Horwitz but wish he had some positional versatility. If he could play a passable LF/RF and 1B he'd be a nice bench piece/platoon bat. He's always walked, doesn't K at a stupidly high rate. He reminds me of Frank Catalanotto for some reason.

 

Yeah that seems like a good optimistic comp for him. If he can reach those heights then he's a potential full time player.

 

But that seems to be on the high end of the projections for Horwitz. Catalanatto had a 70 hit tool in his prime. Although I suppose Horwitz could make up for some of that by walking more. Catalanatto had a 7.7% walk rate. Horwitz project for 12.2%.

[John_Havok]

Yeah that seems like a good optimistic comp for him. If he can reach those heights then he's a potential full time player.

 

But that seems to be on the high end of the projections for Horwitz. Catalanatto had a 70 hit tool in his prime. Although I suppose Horwitz could make up for some of that by walking more. Catalanatto had a 7.7% walk rate. Horwitz project for 12.2%.

 

Catalanotto had more power. I'm not sure there's truly much to like here on Horwitz, the only time he's shown any pop is when he played in NH where the RF fence is like 300 feet away. THis is a guy who'd probably top out at 5HR over a full season in the majors - unless of course he played for the Yankees where he'd probably hit 30

 

This true comp on Horwitz is guy is John Olerud lite lite lite lite and more lite.

[Terminator]

Catalanatto's career high in homers was 13. He had a career ISO of .154. Horwitz projects for .127.

 

Good point on AA being so good for lefty power, sometimes I forget that. The power is pretty similar but Cat probably has a slight edge there.

[John_Havok]

Catalanatto's career high in homers was 13. He had a career ISO of .154. Horwitz projects for .127.

 

Good point on AA being so good for lefty power, sometimes I forget that. The power is pretty similar but Cat probably has a slight edge there.

 

Olerud career ISO was .170 - just thinking out loud, would him having an ISO at .127 instead be all that valuable?

 

Iguess not terrible - his age 35 year was right around that level of ISO @ .121 - he put up 2 fWAR, though that also includes Olerud's Defense at 1B which was always top shelf.

[Brownie19]

If Catalanatto has more power than you and you have no other well above average tools - than you suck.

[John_Havok]

If Catalanatto has more power than you and you have no other well above average tools - than you suck.

 

Wouldnt say suck, just say that his usefulness is limited. Even unlocking a portion of additional power would make him pretty playable.

[Spanky__99]

Catalanatto's career high in homers was 13. He had a career ISO of .154. Horwitz projects for .127.

 

Good point on AA being so good for lefty power, sometimes I forget that. The power is pretty similar but Cat probably has a slight edge there.

 

Cat was a strong side platoon bat with some semblance of baserunning and fielding, with Reed Johnson facing lefties, etc... the comp isn't good. I believe Horowitz might have a chance to stick, but I doubt it.

[Brownie19]

Wouldnt say suck, just say that his usefulness is limited. Even unlocking a portion of additional power would make him pretty playable.

 

You need to get up to around .145 ISO before you start finding batters with a wRC+ above 100. Most of the players with an ISO below that need to be versatile, great defenders or good base runners to carve out a role in the majors. Horwitz doesn't really have those traits, so he's going to need more power than Cat to be a useful player in the majors IMO. I certainly hope he discovers more power and is able to!

[Laika]

From time to time you see contact oriented 1B players with middling power stick around as MLB starters. Guys like James Loney come to mind. Late career Joe Mauer. Yonder Alonso.

 

But that's a really tough archetype. Horwitz would need to hit like, .280 and/or have an extreme walk rate.

[John_Havok]

From time to time you see contact oriented 1B players with middling power stick around as MLB starters. Guys like James Loney come to mind. Late career Joe Mauer. Yonder Alonso.

 

But that's a really tough archetype. Horwitz would need to hit like, .280 and/or have an extreme walk rate.

 

True enough, but usually those guys stick around because they've already had careers up to that point where more power was present, and you still hope they might recover some of it - and chances are theyre still under the end of of their long term contract. A guy starting out like that wouldn't get the time of day except as a stop/gap

[Laika]

True enough, but usually those guys stick around because they've already had careers up to that point where more power was present, and you still hope they might recover some of it - and chances are theyre still under the end of of their long term contract. A guy starting out like that wouldn't get the time of day except as a stop/gap

 

Needs a team like Oakland to give him a foot in the door

 

It likely won't come in Toronto unless multiple players get injured.

 

Like Ryan Noda. Not comparing players this time just opportunities. Toronto had no chance for him. LAD had no chance for him. Oakland had a part time role for him and now he is a full time player and he has proven himself to be pretty good. Go Ryan!

[Olerud363]

Needs a team like Oakland to give him a foot in the door

 

It likely won't come in Toronto unless multiple players get injured.

 

Like Ryan Noda. Not comparing players this time just opportunities. Toronto had no chance for him. LAD had no chance for him. Oakland had a part time role for him and now he is a full time player and he has proven himself to be pretty good. Go Ryan!

 

EDIT - I realize Yandy was 3rd base last couple of years... just demonstrating how the fWAR could work out for a lower power, high on base -5 Defense player.

 

Yandy Diaz was 1.8 WAR and 3.8 WAR with negative defense in 2021 and 2022, that was before his development into Prime Albert Pujols.

 

Diaz hit .256 .353 .387 in 2021 with -4.9 defense and that was worth 1.8 WAR

IN 2022 .296 .401 .423 -5ish D and 3.8 WAR.

 

So the math works out if he could be a good first basemen.

 

It's like Hatteberg... different path but he was part the aggregrate that replaced Giambi and had not too much power.,

 

I mean Spencer right now is projected to hit .240 .340 .350, but from what I can tell that was generated before the season, so based on his good aaa year, he may actually be projected to be an OK first basemen if he can play a little first base D.

[Olerud363]

It would be totally funny if Spencer winds up with the pirates or something and beats Vlad in WAR hitting .280 with 9 homers.

 

Like Spencer is .280 .370 .390 -3 defense 3.1 WAR and Vlad is .280 .335 .451 -17 defense 2.4 WAR.

 

And Vlad would win a gold glove but Spencer wouldn't not being famous enough.,

[Jimcanuck]

It would be totally funny if Spencer winds up with the pirates or something and beats Vlad in WAR hitting .280 with 9 homers.

 

Like Spencer is .280 .370 .390 -3 defense 3.1 WAR and Vlad is .280 .335 .451 -17 defense 2.4 WAR.

 

And Vlad would win a gold glove but Spencer wouldn't not being famous enough.,

 

Funny?? You have a weird sense of humour.

[Pendleton]

[Orgfiller]

 

The team must be enamoured with his stuff and command/composure to be promoting him this aggressively with just a 9 inning look. Great stuff, we could use another homegrown power arm knocking at the door.

[John_Havok]

The team must be enamoured with his stuff and command/composure to be promoting him this aggressively with just a 9 inning look. Great stuff, we could use another homegrown power arm knocking at the door.

 

12.2 innings, he threw 3.2 there last year. Obviously a much larger sample

 

But yes, someone is going to have to replace Bass, he's about to be hung by the yard-arm.

[Eat My Shatkins]

Burnette and Danner both promoted to AAA in the last few days.

 

Juenger has slipped a bit lately, but still decent K-rate at AAA.

[Laika]

upper minors bullpen prospect depth is suddenly interesting

[Eat My Shatkins]

Just noticed last years 5th rounder lefty reliever Mason Fluharty has been bumped to AA. Only 21 and had excellent numbers in A+ including a 12.33 K rate and 2.93 BB rate with a 0.59 ERA

 

 

"Listed at 6'2” and 215 pounds, the lefty has an extreme cross-fire delivery from a low arm slot that hides the ball and makes it tough to pick up, especially for lefties. A reliever profile all the way, Fluharty doesn't have huge raw stuff with a bat-breaking low-90s cutter and sweeping breaking ball."

 

Another interesting lefty anyways. Maybe he's seen an uptick in velo this year??

[Orgfiller]

Just noticed last years 5th rounder lefty reliever Mason Fluharty has been bumped to AA. Only 21 and had excellent numbers in A+ including a 12.33 K rate and 2.93 BB rate with a 0.59 ERA

 

 

"Listed at 6'2” and 215 pounds, the lefty has an extreme cross-fire delivery from a low arm slot that hides the ball and makes it tough to pick up, especially for lefties. A reliever profile all the way, Fluharty doesn't have huge raw stuff with a bat-breaking low-90s cutter and sweeping breaking ball."

 

Another interesting lefty anyways. Maybe he's seen an uptick in velo this year??

 

You’re doing god’s work pointing out these intriguing relief arms in the minors.

[Spanky__99]

upper minors bullpen prospect depth is suddenly interesting

 

That's what I gathered this morning when I read the latest RoboScout report and rankings on BA.

[Daniel Labude]

Rainer Nunez to AA

 

Peyton Williams to A+

 

[John_Havok]

Rainer Nunez to AA

 

Peyton Williams to A+

 

 

Nunez (22 yo) numbers before the callup- 122 wRC+, 10% walk rate, 19% K rate. .309/.390/.446 with 3 HRs

 

Williams (22 yo) numbers before the callup- 135 wRC+, 10% walk rate, 21% K rate. .273/.362/.480 with 7 HRs

 

TJ Brock (23 yo): 20.1 IP, 13.72 K/9, 3.98 BB/9, xFIP 3.39, ERA 1.77

[Eat My Shatkins]

Yeah I figured with all these promotions Brock might also get moved up. 23 and excelling high A so needs to move up IMO

 

Another one that I think we might see promotes soon to AA is Trenton Wallace

[P2F]

The Braves are promoting AJ Smith-Shawver pretty aggressively. Started the season dominating High-A and then moved to Double-A. After two starts, of which one was shortened by rain, they've moved him to AAA.

 

He's 20.

 

Aaaaand he's now with the Braves as of today.

[Eat My Shatkins]

Aaaaand he's now with the Braves as of today.

 

This should be Tiedemann this season. Stupid bicep.