Official MiLB/Prospects Thread

[Spanky99]

Such a weird guy to evaluate. I’ve been a big Orelvis doubter but he’s

improved his plate discipline which gives me hope he can turn into a Joey Gallo type. Extreme outcomes on offense with good defence.

 

The ole TTO.

[Pendleton]

[Pendleton]

Connor Cooke with an inning of work at AA today, struck out the side.

 

20.77 K/9 so far since moving up. (4.1 IP)

 

[Stangstag]

 

KK is dead

[John_Havok]

KK is dead

 

LOL, probably more of a "next year hopefully if he's not terrible" kind of thing. The drop in OF defense from literally anyone on the roster except maybe Kirk....to Horwitz would be substantial.

[Laika]

If Kevin Kiermaier did have a season ending injury right now he'd have been worth his contract and then some. Haha.

[glory]

Such a weird guy to evaluate. I’ve been a big Orelvis doubter but he’s

improved his plate discipline which gives me hope he can turn into a Joey Gallo type. Extreme outcomes on offense with good defence.

 

Yeah, if you told me before the season that he would have a 12.4 BB%, 23.0 K% and .314 ISO in 161 plate appearances, I would have thought he would be a top 50 prospect by the mid season rankings. He's doing a lot of important things well but it's still a pretty lousy season overall. He looks like the definition of a boom or bust, with bust being far more likely, but there's enough intriguing things in there to not want to cut bait too soon.

 

Curious to see if Atkins holds on to him or trades him at the deadline, though I can't imagine his value would be that high.

[L54]

Yeah, if you told me before the season that he would have a 12.4 BB%, 23.0 K% and .314 ISO in 161 plate appearances, I would have thought he would be a top 50 prospect by the mid season rankings. He's doing a lot of important things well but it's still a pretty lousy season overall. He looks like the definition of a boom or bust, with bust being far more likely, but there's enough intriguing things in there to not want to cut bait too soon.

 

Curious to see if Atkins holds on to him or trades him at the deadline, though I can't imagine his value would be that high.

 

Exactly. He's doing the little things that at least give you some hope he can be one of the most unorthodox 2 WAR players in the game

 

I would take Joey Gallo on this team in a heartbeat even with all his flaws. I hate that type of player but any production the Jays can get from home grown talent is going to be needed soon.

[Orgfiller]

Yeah, if you told me before the season that he would have a 12.4 BB%, 23.0 K% and .314 ISO in 161 plate appearances, I would have thought he would be a top 50 prospect by the mid season rankings. He's doing a lot of important things well but it's still a pretty lousy season overall. He looks like the definition of a boom or bust, with bust being far more likely, but there's enough intriguing things in there to not want to cut bait too soon.

 

Curious to see if Atkins holds on to him or trades him at the deadline, though I can't imagine his value would be that high.

 

Bang on. It's kind of unfathomable how he's improved significantly in some of his biggest weak points (at least among publicly available stats), and yet he's still a relative disappointment because he somehow can't seem to sustain even a .200 BABIP. How is that even possible? How is someone with this much power, who has improved on swing decisions at the surface level, not just absolutely dominating with the results to show. Him having more homeruns than every other type of hit is mindblowing. Even a Joey Gallo-esque BABIP would make him into a top 50 prospect by age-relative performance.

[Laika]

Saber nerds need to put their money where their words are. Buy Orelvis heavily in every dynasty league.

[Solaxys]

Iunno about Horwitz.

 

His BABIP is kinda high .400 but his walk rate is also high (17%), shooting his OBP to north of .400.

[The_DH]

What do you think of Horwitz as a leadoff hitter? Anything there?

[Eat My Shatkins]

Hagen Danner - 17.18 K/9 - 1.37 xFIP

Connor Cooke - 19.10 K/9 - 1.59 xFIP

Jimmy Burnette - 16.66 K/9 - 3.08 xFIP

Bowden Francis - 14.14 K/9 - 3.08 xFIP

Hayden Juenger - 12.65 K/9 - 4.08 xFIP

 

All relievers at AA or AAA. Except for Francis they're all 24yo and under.

 

They all have decent to strong velocity too. Hopefully some of this mud sticks to the wall for once.

[Eat My Shatkins]

f*** sakes Barger hasn't played in like a month. Slow start and then injured. Sucks.

[John_Havok]

Iunno about Horwitz.

 

His BABIP is kinda high .400 but his walk rate is also high (17%), shooting his OBP to north of .400.

 

If he's running elite EVs, the babip can almost be justified, but I suspect that's not the case given his lack of power. Anyone know where a guy can get minor league EV numbers in a leaderboard fashion rather than clicking on individual games at baseballsavant ?

[Brownie19]

Since when is Bowden Francis a reliever?

[Daniel Labude]

If he's running elite EVs, the babip can almost be justified, but I suspect that's not the case given his lack of power. Anyone know where a guy can get minor league EV numbers in a leaderboard fashion rather than clicking on individual games at baseballsavant ?

 

Max 111.3

95 percentile 103.6

Avg 88.1

[John_Havok]

Hagen Danner - 17.18 K/9 - 1.37 xFIP

Connor Cooke - 19.10 K/9 - 1.59 xFIP

Jimmy Burnette - 16.66 K/9 - 3.08 xFIP

Bowden Francis - 14.14 K/9 - 3.08 xFIP

Hayden Juenger - 12.65 K/9 - 4.08 xFIP

 

All relievers at AA or AAA. Except for Francis they're all 24yo and under.

 

They all have decent to strong velocity too. Hopefully some of this mud sticks to the wall for once.

 

Would sure go a long way to help the pen that's for sure. Even if Bowden can be a starter that's better than Manoah right now that would be amazing.

[John_Havok]

Max 111.3

95 percentile 103.6

Avg 88.1

 

That average does not make my dick move.

[Daniel Labude]

https://www.prospectslive.com/2023-aaa-statcast-data

 

Prospects Live has all of AAA and some Low A numbers

[Daniel Labude]

That average does not make my dick move.

 

That's 5 for our AAA, taking out some low BBE players

[Eat My Shatkins]

Since when is Bowden Francis a reliever?

 

They made him a reliever last year in the second half after he was getting pummeled all first half.

 

It does look like they're stretching him out again now though because he's actually good now and something is going to have to give with Manoah soon.

[max silver]

It's really quite remarkable how different Orelivis Martinez's May results look compared to those from April. Something must have clicked for him, whether it's approach change, swing change, or simply finding his timing.

 

First 16 games:

 

.083/.149/.233/.383 -1 WRC+ .047 BABIP

Strikeout + walk rates were reasonable 7.4% BB 23.5% K

 

Latest 23 games

 

.247/.376/.688/1.065 172 WRC+ .196 BABIP

Small improvement in strikeout rate, huge jump in walk rate 16.1% BB 22.6% K

[L54]

Orelvis is going to be the Matt Chapman replacement. Great D tons of power low average moderate on base skills

[Solaxys]

What do you think of Horwitz as a leadoff hitter? Anything there?

 

Not really, his speed and baserunning acumen are average. I am sure he can work on the latter.

 

He's more of a 6th/7th slotter atm unless he figured something out this year which is letting him walk that much (better discipline?)

 

43 games is kinda shallow to really get a good idea of him. His ISO is .115 so he really doesn't hit much for power (like Biggio's ISO is 0.173).

 

He's basically a Biggio that can handle fastballs but less versatile defensively.

 

---

 

He's a good player but his skillset is so weird that you have no idea how he fits in any team, maybe Benintendi-esque. But he def won't get a frontline 1B job.

[Laika]

It's really quite remarkable how different Orelivis Martinez's May results look compared to those from April. Something must have clicked for him, whether it's approach change, swing change, or simply finding his timing.

 

First 16 games:

 

.083/.149/.233/.383 -1 WRC+ .047 BABIP

Strikeout + walk rates were reasonable 7.4% BB 23.5% K

 

Latest 23 games

 

.247/.376/.688/1.065 172 WRC+ .196 BABIP

Small improvement in strikeout rate, huge jump in walk rate 16.1% BB 22.6% K

 

And still a ridiculous babip!!!

[Laika]

Not really, his speed and baserunning acumen are average. I am sure he can work on the latter.

 

He's more of a 6th/7th slotter atm unless he figured something out this year which is letting him walk that much (better discipline?)

 

43 games is kinda shallow to really get a good idea of him. His ISO is .115 so he really doesn't hit much for power (like Biggio's ISO is 0.173).

 

He's basically a Biggio that can handle fastballs but less versatile defensively.

 

---

 

He's a good player but his skillset is so weird that you have no idea how he fits in any team, maybe Benintendi-esque. But he def won't get a frontline 1B job.

 

Yeah he's like a Ryan Noda type

[John_Havok]

Yeah he's like a Ryan Noda type

 

Noda with no power though. That decreases his overall value by a fair margin given his lack of defensive usefulness.

[max silver]

Orelvis is going to be the Matt Chapman replacement. Great D tons of power low average moderate on base skills

 

It should boil down to either Orelvis or Barger unless the front office trades for a Chapman replacement.

[Stangstag]

Orelvis is going to be the Matt Chapman replacement. Great D tons of power low average moderate on base skills

 

God I hope so. Im not hot on the idea of signing Chapman to a Springer contract