Official MiLB/Prospects Thread

[Jonn]

 

Rare power from Groshans.

[InsideThePark]

Matt Gage worth giving a look in majors at some point? Has some high K numbers in his minor league career and starting the year hot. Borucki sucks anyway and I can't even remember the other lefty in the pen at the moment.

 

The other lefty in the pen right now has 408 K's in 272.1 minor league innings, and started the year with 0 runs against in 8 minor league innings. Gage's milb K rate isn't even that good. I guess it's improved since he became a full time reliever.

[Ray]

Nick Frasso today: 3.0IP, 4H, 2ER, 7K.

 

Sinker: 95-97 mph (touched 99)

Slider: 85 mph

[Krylian]

 

That swing reminded me of Mark McGwire's.

[Eat My Shatkins]

How concerning are Groshans low power numbers?

 

I mean the guy continually puts up a high wRC+ no matter what level he's at.

 

152 wRC+ right now at AAA as a 22 year old. 16.9% BB rate vs 11.2% K rate and a 0.461 on base %

 

He's out performing Moreno in pretty much every aspect this season, and Moreno's power out put is very low too.

 

I did not see that coming, I thought Moreno was going to tear AAA apart at the seams.

[Laika]

It's WEIRD because everyone thought of him as power prospect. Apparently he just does not hit the ball hard. Maybe he can learn. But it's not concerning per se.

 

Drafted in 2018, Groshans has only played in about one season’s worth of career games due to a severe 2019 foot injury and 2020’s lost pandemic campaign. He has not performed in the manner that was projected of him coming out of high school, when he was viewed as a corner infield power-over-hit prototype. Instead, Groshans has shown excellent control of the strike zone and promising bat-to-ball skills despite his odd-looking bat path, while continuing to mostly play shortstop all the way through Double-A. He still projects to third base, and that combined with Groshans’ surprisingly low high-end exit velos caused us to do a fairly extensive re-evaluation, as corner infielders don’t typically project as everyday players without impact power. On paper, his skill set reads more like the last half-decade of Evan Longoria’s production than that of a 30-homer threat, and the perceived variance of Groshans’ outcomes has narrowed. Ultimately, what he did as a 21-year-old at Double-A was impressive, the average major-league batting line has fallen each of the last two years, and we’re still comfortable projecting Groshans as a good big leaguer, but not a star.

[Dagagad]

How concerning are Groshans low power numbers?

 

I mean the guy continually puts up a high wRC+ no matter what level he's at.

 

152 wRC+ right now at AAA as a 22 year old. 16.9% BB rate vs 11.2% K rate and a 0.461 on base %

 

He's out performing Moreno in pretty much every aspect this season, and Moreno's power out put is very low too.

 

I did not see that coming, I thought Moreno was going to tear AAA apart at the seams.

 

DidnÂ’t Moreno out perform him pretty well in double A. There isnÂ’t that much difference in quality that IÂ’d put that much stock in just triple A numbers.

 

I still think groshans can be valuable without power though. Especially with this ball.

[Laika]

DidnÂ’t Moreno out perform him pretty well in double A. There isnÂ’t that much difference in quality that IÂ’d put that much stock in just triple A numbers.

 

I still think groshans can be valuable without power though. Especially with this ball.

 

Yeah there is a theory that if this new baseball is THE new baseball for years and years it should favour contact hitters more. Well, at least a lot more than the game has favoured contact / line drive type hitters over the last few years.

[Laika]

I just watched some of the 2022 youtube videos of Groshans' at bats

 

Really patient approach. Spits on a lot of pitches, spits on junk consistently, seems to rarely make bad swings.

 

A lot of his contact is pretty boring though. Grounders down the line, little duck farts to right field.

 

Looks more like DJ LeMahieu or Brandon Nimmo than any type of power hitter

[keggy]

How concerning are Groshans low power numbers?

 

I mean the guy continually puts up a high wRC+ no matter what level he's at.

 

152 wRC+ right now at AAA as a 22 year old. 16.9% BB rate vs 11.2% K rate and a 0.461 on base %

 

He's out performing Moreno in pretty much every aspect this season, and Moreno's power out put is very low too.

 

I did not see that coming, I thought Moreno was going to tear AAA apart at the seams.

 

If he doesn't get his ISO up by the second half I would be concerned. It's very difficult to maintain your walk rates in the majors if you're a slap hitter.

[Olerud363]

If he doesn't get his ISO up by the second half I would be concerned. It's very difficult to maintain your walk rates in the majors if you're a slap hitter.

 

Plenty of slap hitters have high walk rates. Like Kirk has the highest walk rate on the team right now, and is no power hitter. Brandon Nimmo. 2014 Matt Carpenter (before the ball started to get lively).

 

Lot's of guys have hit .290 with 10 homers and 80 walks... maybe that's who Groshans will be.

[43211234]

Regarding Groshans' power. Here is part of his interview with Jonathan Mayo from this spring:

 

 

 

Mayo: Let’s talk a little bit about swing mechanics and things like that because that was something that you were reluctant to embrace. And again, I think it's a balance, right? Sometimes you just have to let it rip. Tell me a little bit about how you've changed your swing and brought in the launch angle stuff without losing who you are.

 

Groshans: My dad's my hitting coach. He's worked with me since day one, knows my swing better than anybody. We just worked on keeping it simple, cutting down the leg kick, not getting big, controlling what I can control, working in the zone, swinging at good pitches. Nothing really huge, mechanically, just toning it down a little bit.

 

Mayo: When people ask you about when the power is going to come, do you get frustrated by it? Do you understand it? There's the old adage that power is often the last thing to come. Is that something you sort of just learned?

 

Groshans: The way I view it is, be a hitter before that. If you can have a good foundation, you can be a good hitter, the power will come. Just getting older, more developed, it’ll be there. So, it doesn't frustrate me. It's annoying sometimes to hear because it's just like, I'd rather hit .300 with 10 [home runs] to .200 with 30 [home runs]. But that's just how I am.

 

 

https://www.mlb.com/news/jordan-groshans-spring-training-interview

[glory]

Yeah I'm not too concerned about Groshans' lack of power as long as he does everything else really well. A DJ LeMahieu type, even if it's not the juiced ball 2019-20 version, would still be pretty valuable.

[Eat My Shatkins]

Adrian Hernandez with two more clean innings today to pick up his 5th save at AAA.

 

0 hits, 0 walks, 0 runs, 3 K's

 

Only 20 pitches with 16 strikes

 

Guys a f***ing stud

[MON4NHLTOR4MLB]

Adrian Hernandez with two more clean innings today to pick up his 5th save at AAA.

 

0 hits, 0 walks, 0 runs, 3 K's

 

Only 20 pitches with 16 strikes

 

Guys a f***ing stud

 

Borucki though.

[keggy]

Plenty of slap hitters have high walk rates. Like Kirk has the highest walk rate on the team right now, and is no power hitter. Brandon Nimmo. 2014 Matt Carpenter (before the ball started to get lively).

 

Lot's of guys have hit .290 with 10 homers and 80 walks... maybe that's who Groshans will be.

 

Those guys you named are good slashers and have put up .200 ISO at the big league level Groshans is below .100 ISO. That's like Tapia level.

 

Every once in a while a slap hitter will have a career BABIP year but it's not sustainable in the long term. You would need a hit tool like Wade Boggs.

[Olerud363]

Those guys you named are good slashers and have put up .200 ISO at the big league level Groshans is below .100 ISO. That's like Tapia level.

 

Every once in a while a slap hitter will have a career BABIP year but it's not sustainable in the long term. You would need a hit tool like Wade Boggs.

 

The guys I've named have similar minor league slash lines to Groshans. It's pretty common to hit for more power in the majors then in the minors. Even if Groshan's power doesn't come this year, it still might down the road.

 

Plus the extreme lack of power is only through 100 PAs this year... lifetime in the minors he's more like a .150 isolated power guy, sort of a 40 doubles, 10-15 homers guy per 150 games which will work in the majors.

[RustyTrombone]

Nothing wrong with Groshans if he taps out at like a rich man's Matt Duffy level of production.

[Krusty]

Headed up to visit some friends in Manchester this weekend and plan on catching a couple Fisher Cats games while there. Looking forward to seeing some of our prospects.

[Slade]

Tiedemann now #100 on MLB top 100 prospect list.

[max silver]

Tiedemann now #100 on MLB top 100 prospect list.

 

You had to figure that was just a matter of time given how dominant he's been as a 19 year old. Zulueta is over 4 years older but he's been no less dominant and he's missed several seasons due to injury issues.

[Ehjays]

Tiedemann now #100 on MLB top 100 prospect list.

 

Yeah so now we have 4 in the top 100,

 

4 Gabriel Moreno C

 

31 Orelvis Martinez SS/3B

 

74 Jordan Groshans SS/3B

 

100 Ricky Tiedemann LHP

[THANOS]

Yeah so now we have 4 in the top 100,

 

4 Gabriel Moreno C

 

31 Orelvis Martinez SS/3B

 

74 Jordan Groshans SS/3B

 

100 Ricky Tiedemann LHP

 

I think he's far too low. He should be approaching Top 50 if not inside it.

[Krusty]

Great that Tiedemann cracked the top 100. Really liking how our farm system is shaping up. As far as Moreno, what's the timeline on him we think as far as coming up to the Major's?

[John_Havok]

I think he's far too low. He should be approaching Top 50 if not inside it.

 

Prospect lists like 1st and 2nd round draft hype and Tiedemann didn’t have that. He has to pitch out of his mind to move up lists without the hype train. Usually takes a season or two before they get on board.

[max silver]

Yeah so now we have 4 in the top 100,

 

4 Gabriel Moreno C

 

31 Orelvis Martinez SS/3B

 

74 Jordan Groshans SS/3B

 

100 Ricky Tiedemann LHP

 

The system has seen a lot of positive developments this season. Zulueta and Tiedemann have exploded onto the scene as exciting power starting prospects, Santos has come out of nowhere to strike out two batters per inning, Robberse has taken a step forward and inserted himself into the conversation, Gabriel Martinez has had a massive month of May, Groshans has had nice success in AAA despite not showing a lot of power, Orelvis Martinez has adjusted to AA and continued to launch moonshots, Moreno has begun to gain his footing in May in AAA etc.

[Eat My Shatkins]

The system has seen a lot of positive developments this season. Zulueta and Tiedemann have exploded onto the scene as exciting power starting prospects, Santos has come out of nowhere to strike out two batters per inning, Robberse has taken a step forward and inserted himself into the conversation, Gabriel Martinez has had a massive month of May, Groshans has had nice success in AAA despite not showing a lot of power, Orelvis Martinez has adjusted to AA and continued to launch moonshots, Moreno has begun to gain his footing in May in AAA etc.

 

Frasso also came back from his TJS and is hitting 100mph while sporting an 18.00 K/9

[Deadpool]

Prospect lists like 1st and 2nd round draft hype and Tiedemann didn’t have that. He has to pitch out of his mind to move up lists without the hype train. Usually takes a season or two before they get on board.

 

Yeah, no way Groshans is in the top 100 if he wasn't a 1st rounder.

[Dagagad]

I don’t know if anyone listens to baseball prospectus ‘there is no off-season’ podcast. I’m catching up and was listening to the may 24 one (ep 98). It’s really interesting if you play fantasy.

 

In the last 5 minutes, they rave about Frasso and Zulueta.

 

Frasso, they seem to like all three pitches, he’s had a velo bump, if he can command (which is his possible weakness) he could ‘explode up rankings’.

 

Zulueta, 4 pitch mix, great stuff, sits upper 90s, not terrible command. The most interesting thing to me was they think he could move fast and even debut this year as a starter or a reliever. They also seem to think that’s he’s a starter but that’s reading between the lines. I’m guessing if he comes up as relief, it’s more necessity and inning limits than him having just reliever stuff.

 

They seem to think Frasso’s stuff is electric because they were talking about him like that after just one start.

[Jimcanuck]

I think he's far too low. He should be approaching Top 50 if not inside it.

 

Pretty much every team has some prospect that is far exceeding expectations so far, though.