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Is Price leading the Cy Young race?

reedjohnsonfan

By reedjohnsonfan
in Toronto Blue Jays Talk

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Who is your 2015 AL Cy Young?  

29 members have voted

  1. 1. Who is your 2015 AL Cy Young?

    • Carlos Carrasco
      0
    • Chris Sale
      9
    • Dallas Keuchel
      5
    • David Price
      13
    • Dellin Betances
      2

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BTS GOAT

BTS

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I'd just give it to Sale or Carrasco. The award is for the "best pitcher." One of those guys is the best pitcher and both are having seasons that demonstrate a superior skill level.

 

I don't get it. Keuchel's xFIP is within a tenth of a run of either of theirs, and there are pretty good reasons to believe beating DIPS is a skill of his. He also has huge IP leads on either of them.

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BTS GOAT

BTS

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Why? Because giving up homeruns doesn't matter? It's only expected homeruns? lol

 

Yeah, pretty much. It's well documented that HR/FB is basically just luck over a sample of one season.

reedjohnsonfan Dunedin Blue Jays

reedjohnsonfan

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Yeah, pretty much. It's well documented that HR/FB is basically just luck over a sample of one season.

 

I do not think that should matter for the Cy Young... if you give up tons of homeruns due to awful pitches but still have a nice xFIP you shouldn't win the Cy Young. But, believe what you like.

pickoff22 First Round Pick

pickoff22

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My god, I really hope it doesn't come to the point where all the voters do is go to fangraphs and sort pitchers by xFIP to determine who should win the CY.
BTS GOAT

BTS

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I do not think that should matter for the Cy Young... if you give up tons of homeruns due to awful pitches but still have a nice xFIP you shouldn't win the Cy Young. But, believe what you like.

 

All else being equal (ERA, IP) I'd much prefer to look at xFIP than FIP to see who was really better. If you're going to look at DIPS, why not try to remove HR/FB luck from the equation?

reedjohnsonfan Dunedin Blue Jays

reedjohnsonfan

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Why has Keuchel's ERA lagged his DIPS for his career, then? I don't see why we'd believe that.

 

I don't really believe in Keuchel's strikeout and walk rates. I think he's more like a league-average strikeout guy who walks ~6% of batters, and projections agree. I am more comfortable with Sale and Carrasco performing at an elite level going forward, so I believe that they are better pitchers.

 

I don't think anyone here thinks Keuchel is on the same level of those 2 pitchers...

BTS GOAT

BTS

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Why has Keuchel's ERA lagged his DIPS for his career, then? I don't see why we'd believe that.

 

I don't really believe in Keuchel's strikeout and walk rates. I think he's more like a league-average strikeout guy who walks ~6% of batters, and projections agree. I am more comfortable with Sale and Carrasco performing at an elite level going forward, so I believe that they are better pitchers.

 

You're being disingenuous by talking about his career numbers. Obviously his skill set changed significantly last year.

 

And why the f*** are you talking about projections and who you trust going forward?

reedjohnsonfan Dunedin Blue Jays

reedjohnsonfan

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All else being equal (ERA, IP) I'd much prefer to look at xFIP than FIP to see who was really better. If you're going to look at DIPS, why not try to remove HR/FB luck from the equation?

 

Agree! But I think you could use both if you want to look at who should win the Cy Young. Sure it could be luck within a given season, but it also might not be. Look at one start for example... I don't think xFIP tells the whole story in one season, and certainly not 1 start. I prefer to look at lots of different metrics, but that's just me.

KingKat All-Star

KingKat

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We're trying to determine who the best pitcher is, so that the "best pitcher" award is properly endowed.

 

Except that it's not "the best pitcher" award. It's the "best pitcher in 2015" award. If you had the best season, you had the best season. You shouldn't be penalized just because someone else is the "true talent" best pitcher. That's bogus.

KingKat All-Star

KingKat

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It's the best pitcher for the 2015 season. Sale and Kershaw were the best pitchers in their leagues this season. That they don't lead their leagues in ERA or fWAR is a separate matter.

 

I feel like these awards should reward the most noteworthy seasons. We have so many better ways of determining value now than a writer's vote so I really care less than ever about the statistical argument. I feel like the award should reward good narrative because that's really the only thing it can do that stats can't do better. Keuchel's breakout is the most noteworthy pitching performance of the season. I don't care if technically there are better pitcher. Keuchel's beakout is the story. That's what I want recorded by the award. I can always check the stats for a different perspective.

Governator Vancouver Canadians

Governator

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I feel like these awards should reward the most noteworthy seasons. We have so many better ways of determining value now than a writer's vote so I really care less than ever about the statistical argument. I feel like the award should reward good narrative because that's really the only thing it can do that stats can't do better. Keuchel's breakout is the most noteworthy pitching performance of the season. I don't care if technically there are better pitcher. Keuchel's beakout is the story. That's what I want recorded by the award. I can always check the stats for a different perspective.

 

 

I disagree, considering Sale's K% is the best we've got to see since Randy Johnson in 2003(?). That's a better story for the award imo.

KingKat All-Star

KingKat

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I disagree, considering Sale's K% is the best we've got to see since Randy Johnson in 2003(?). That's a better story for the award imo.

 

That's a very good argument. Works within the framework I proposed and I really think Sale is worthy of more recognition generally speaking. I could bump Keuchel to 2nd on my ballot.

BTS GOAT

BTS

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If you only had 2015 data to go on and were asked right now which pitcher in the league you would have most wanted to pitch for your team this season, which pitcher would you choose? That is the essence of the Cy Young. The pitcher who most demonstrated over the course of the season that they are the best.

 

No, that's just your interpretation, which you're entitled to. Most people see it as being the pitcher who's contributions in 2015 were the most valuable. IP matters in that context.

Dr. Dinger GOAT

Dr. Dinger

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I mean... LAA is just GOD AWFUL. Pujols is gimped big time, their two best relievers are hurt/done for the year, and they don't really have a dominant ace, with all due respect to Richards. Imagine getting to face Heaney and Wilson in Games 1 and 2 of the ALDS? That would be a f***ing FEAST for our lefty-mashers.
pickoff22 First Round Pick

pickoff22

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I mean... LAA is just GOD AWFUL. Pujols is gimped big time, their two best relievers are hurt/done for the year, and they don't really have a dominant ace, with all due respect to Richards. Imagine getting to face Heaney and Wilson in Games 1 and 2 of the ALDS? That would be a f***ing FEAST for our lefty-mashers.

 

Wilson is out for the season. But yes, LAA's staff is not pretty.

Dr. Dinger GOAT

Dr. Dinger

Old-Timey Member
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Wilson is out for the season. But yes, LAA's staff is not pretty.

 

Oh yeah, I totes forgot about that. Well, the idea of facing Santiago instead is even more appealing!

reedjohnsonfan Dunedin Blue Jays

reedjohnsonfan

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I mean... LAA is just GOD AWFUL. Pujols is gimped big time, their two best relievers are hurt/done for the year, and they don't really have a dominant ace, with all due respect to Richards. Imagine getting to face Heaney and Wilson in Games 1 and 2 of the ALDS? That would be a f***ing FEAST for our lefty-mashers.

 

For sure... but if somehow the Twins get in that would be ideal. They won't even have their "ace" Ervin Santana eligible for the playoffs. Gibson, Pelfrey, Millone, Duffey... I have no clue how they are still in the race throwing those guys out there.

Dr. Dinger GOAT

Dr. Dinger

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For sure... but if somehow the Twins get in that would be ideal. They won't even have their "ace" Ervin Santana eligible for the playoffs.

 

Why not? What did I miss?

Sammy225 FCL Blue Jays

Sammy225

Old-Timey Member
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Sale is catching steam.

 

Thing is there are a lot of Dinosaur voters that aren't going to look at the deeper stats thats why Sale does not win.

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