Is Price leading the Cy Young race?

[reedjohnsonfan]

He's been exactly as we had hoped since coming here. 7-1 with an ERA something close to 2, and is now tied with Chris Sale in AL pitching WAR if you submit to that stat. With Keuchel struggling, does Price have a good shot now if he finishes well? I believe he would be the first Cy Young winner to be traded mid-season since Rick Sutcliffe in 1984, someone correct me if I am wrong on that.

[SAAviour]

Cy Young- Price

MVP-Donaldson

[Sammy225]

In some of the older voters then yes because winz+ERA is all you need.... Some of the more informative voters may still think Sale which in my eyes is still the right choice.

[BigCecil]

If he finishes his final starts well I think he will win. He battled his last 2 starts with command a bit, but between some great D and having innate ability to pitch himself out of trouble, he continues to do exactly what we got him for.

[crmr]

In some of the older voters then yes because winz+ERA is all you need.... Some of the more informative voters may still think Sale which in my eyes is still the right choice.

 

I might be wrong here but what stat does Sale dominate Price in? Price has the same WAR + the older voter stats (which should still be relevant somewhat to the discussion).

 

I guess you're going by k's?

[jays4life19]

I might be wrong here but what stat does Sale dominate Price in? Price has the same WAR + the older voter stats (which should still be relevant somewhat to the discussion).

 

I guess you're going by k's?

 

FIP, xFIP, SIERA, xFIP-.

[crmr]

FIP, xFIP, SIERA.

 

Aren't these somehow incorporated with other stats into WAR?

[jays4life19]

Aren't these somehow incorporated with other stats into WAR?

 

Only FIP is. Price has pitched more innings though. That's why they have the same fWAR.

[crmr]

Only FIP is. Price has pitched more innings though. That's why they have the same fWAR.

 

So my general point that stat 'smart' fans as alluded to by the other guy will in many cases prefer Price, and all the old men (as described) should strictly prefer him

 

Seems like he should be the favourite

[Olerud363]

In some of the older voters then yes because winz+ERA is all you need.... Some of the more informative voters may still think Sale which in my eyes is still the right choice.

 

I really don't understand this line of thought. Price and Sale are about even in the advanced stats... I checked today and it seemed it was 6-6 on fangraphs. How could the tie breaker not go to the guy with the best traditional stats leading his team to the playoffs??

 

Even if Sale pulls slightly ahead in advanced stats, it shouldn't matter unless it's overwhelming. I mean if in the end Sale has 7.3 WAR, 13-10 3.35, and Price is 7.0 WAR 19-5 2.35 leads Jays to division... it is still Price.

 

The WAR systems have a level of error... they are not God. They should be used to detect clear differences (IE Cabrerra vs. Trout 2013) that are not obvious... but when it's close using the traditional stats and the story is still fine.

[Cyborg]

I really don't understand this line of thought. Price and Sale are about even in the advanced stats... I checked today and it seemed it was 6-6 on fangraphs. How could the tie breaker not go to the guy with the best traditional stats leading his team to the playoffs??

 

Even if Sale pulls slightly ahead in advanced stats, it shouldn't matter unless it's overwhelming. I mean if in the end Sale has 7.3 WAR, 13-10 3.35, and Price is 7.0 WAR 19-5 2.35 leads Jays to division... it is still Price.

 

The WAR systems have a level of error... they are not God. They should be used to detect clear differences (IE Cabrerra vs. Trout 2013) that are not obvious... but when it's close using the traditional stats and the story is still fine.

Check again.

[Laika]

He's neck and neck with Keuchel now.

 

16-5, 2.42 ERA, 2.80 FIP, 6.0 fWAR, 5.9 bWAR

17-8, 2.56 ERA, 2.93 FIP, 5.5 fWAR, 6.4 bWAR

 

It's basically tied. Narrative will matter, and Houston has been tumbling so edge goes to Price.

 

Sale and Archer are both dark-horse candidates. Sale's K rate is historic and he could be the fWAR champ. Archer has been dominant from wire to wire and all of his metrics are under 3.00.

 

The voting landscape for these things is evolving, so it's always hard to tell exactly how the voters collectively will value Wins, or WAR.

 

Every start matters.

[BTS]

Basically a dead heat between Keuchel and Price now.

[Mac Outlaw]

It's Price's to lose at this point. If he takes care of business the last three starts, he should take it.

[pickoff22]

Impact on the team is something that is (and should be) considered. If Price beats NYY for the 3rd time and closes out the season strong, then it's his (assuming the Keuchel and Sale don't absolutely crush it)

[Laika]

Also, housecoats and scooters.

[Mac Outlaw]

Two starts would mean he pitches Game One on about ten days rest. I don't think that's the way to go.

[Laika]

http://www.baseballmusings.com/cgi-bin/CyYoungTracker.py

 

Cy Young tracker using Tango's little napkin formula

[Laika]

The NL race is even more interesting.

 

Will Greinke and Kershaw split the vote, allowing Arrieta to shoot up the middle?

[burlingtonbandit]

Impact on the team is something that is (and should be) considered. If Price beats NYY for the 3rd time and closes out the season strong, then it's his (assuming the Keuchel and Sale don't absolutely crush it)

 

In the past I would say this is BS but I think you are right. If Price has another dominant performance vs the Yankees and Keuchel shits the bed against the Rangers again that can be the difference between their respective teams winning the division. That is a ton of value which most people won't take into account just looking at their numbers.

[Dr. Dinger]

I'm super happy that phony baloney fake-ace Keuchel has been exposed for the merely well above average pitcher that he is!

 

Eat s*** BTS!

[TBJESE]

I think Sale is going to have some of the most varied support. He'll get lots of first-place votes due to his strikout-related FIP-domination, but he might not even make some voters' ballots due to him not even being in the top-10 in ERA or wins.

 

Price is going to be top-3 on everyone's ballots and number 1 on many.

[Dr. Dinger]

I think Sale is out, at this point. As godly as his K rate is, it's hard to imagine him winning the dino award with 12 W and a 3.55 ERA. If his ERA was more in line with his FIP, then maybe he'd have a chance, but Price is more worthy at this point.

[reedjohnsonfan]

The NL race is even more interesting.

 

Will Greinke and Kershaw split the vote, allowing Arrieta to shoot up the middle?

 

I think traditional stats could still sort of be used in a historical context. If the season ended today, Greinke would have posted the lowest ERA in the last 20 years of any starter. Even with the steroid era that's really historical. It's the same reason I thought Miguel Cabrera deserved the MVP when he won the triple crown.

[reedjohnsonfan]

In the past I would say this is BS but I think you are right. If Price has another dominant performance vs the Yankees and Keuchel shits the bed against the Rangers again that can be the difference between their respective teams winning the division. That is a ton of value which most people won't take into account just looking at their numbers.

 

That is certainly true and should sway some voters. Just like with the MVP where it might matter when the hits are coming and not just the overall picture. Many of Donaldson's homeruns have either tied the game or put the Jays in the lead, which is impressive considering how many blowouts the Jays have had.

[Dick_Pole]

Price should just no-hit the Yankees then this discussion is over.

[BTS]

I'm super happy that phony baloney fake-ace Keuchel has been exposed for the merely well above average pitcher that he is!

 

Eat s*** BTS!

 

I've killed people for less than this.

[Dr. Dinger]

Just be happy you didn't make the DDL playoffs and have Keuchel break your heart this week.

[G-Snarls]

With Sale and his insane K total out...

 

Price beats Keuchel by a small margin. Price has very similar or slightly better numbers in all the stats that the voters will care about

[BigBounceyBlueBalls]

I've killed people for less than this.

 

You should really have a Snicker's !!!

 

But then again with a ass that big ummmm maybe not!!! Lol