Offseason roster thread 2014

[Deadpool]

It's weird and super rare that a 5'8" guy can have clean mechanics + throw with plus velocity as a SP.

 

He's a unicorn!

 

http://cdn.pastemagazine.com/www/blogs/lists/Sterling-7.jpg

 

What? I love Archer!

[glory]

If Shields is dropping to 3-4 years, then do it. Might look like an overpay in years 3 and 4, but even Buehrle's heavily backloaded deal turned out to be decent value so you never know. If it goes down to 3 years, then I'd even do 3/60. The years are more important than the AAV. Just trim some fat by trading Navarro, Estrada, etc.

 

No way I do five years though, and I'd be nervous with four (would still do it if reasonable though, like 4/60). Three is a no brainer.

[flafson]

Didn't they say he didn't sign earlier for 100M cause he didn't want to play for the team that offered it? What makes you guys think he's gonna want to play for us?

No way AA/Beeston go ask for money unless they are certain he's willing to play for us.

[TwistedLogic]

Heard an interesting stat today. No free agent has signed for more than $50M after February 1st. Could Shields be looking at 3 years now?

 

I mentioned this a couple days ago; Jimenez got 50M and I think Bourn got 48M. That said, I don't think that's really much of a precedent. While I do think that his price tag has come down considerably, I can still see Shields getting 70-80M if that one desperate team emerges from the pack.

[Sammy225]

I think that the longer this drags out the more likely the Yanks become involved and give him 60-70M. I don't know if he is being picky with who he is negotiating with or he really is not getting much interest but with catchers and pitchers reporting in 2 weeks or so i would assume something gets done this week. Surprised we have not heard much of anyone in the lead for him especially the mystery team

[TDotttt2005]

If he's getting a contract in that range, we had better be asking Rogers for some extra payroll space.

 

This has been addressed in general in the Beeston/Duquette thread...but I think this year's budget is this year's budget. Specifically to Shields, If you are an owner and have tried to replace your president, bringing in a baseball guy who will come in above your top baseball guy...it shows that you really really wanted to get rid of your president, and at the very least, wanted to get an opinion from another baseball mind about the bona fides of your GM. At the very worst (for AA), they wanted to bring in a new top baseball guy, effectively demoting and potentially down the road, replacing your GM.

 

Now if that President that you tried to replace, and that GM that you have shown not to have the utmost confidence in come to you ask for $20 million in addition to the very generous, top 10, payroll in the majors youve already budgeted, saying yeah trust us trust us, this will put us over the top...will you say yeah sure, here we go, heres 20mil????

 

Good one.

[Laika]

James Shields is 33 years old this year.

 

There's basically no precedent for a 33 year old pitcher getting something around 5/$100 unless you go back to Mike Hampton. Can anyone think of the biggest contracts given to pitchers aged 33 or older in their first year of the new deal?

 

Cliff Lee - 5/$120 for his age 32-36 seasons (vesting option for age 37)

Adam Wainwright - 5/$97.5 for his age 32-36 seasons.

 

Cliff had three 6.5+ fWAR seasons in a row before his deal.

Waino went 5.3, 5.6, (missed year), 4.1, 6.3 before his deal kicked in.

 

Shields has never had a 5 WAR season, but in an 8.5 year career he's had 7 years between 3.5 and 4.5 fWAR. He's also the most durable looking SP in the league right now, more or less - pitched the most innings in baseball since 2007 (regular season) and the only SP with more starts is Verlander, who is kind of broken. The durability is a plus but the "wear and tear" is a negative.

 

If he's a durable, 33 year old SP that is very good but decidedly not great, then what he is, essentially, is a sexier version of Mark Buehrle. If all we look at is fWAR (or RA9-WAR) and IP, Shields and Buehrle are almost twins. Buehlre got 4/$58 from Miami for has age 33-36 seasons.

 

 

4/$60 + some market inflation should be Shields' floor, assuming the market didn't overspend greatly on Buehrle (we've also seen lesser talents like Ervin Santana get something close to the Buehlre deal already this offseason). And as a "sexier" version of the same Buehrle type of talent, Shields can make a strong case for more money. A 5th year might be a major point of disagreement though between the Shields' camp and potential negotiating teams. But, if a team comes out and give's Shields 75M for four years of work, I'd say that that's basically his market value right now.

[TwistedLogic]

James Shields is 33 years old this year.

 

There's basically no precedent for a 33 year old pitcher getting something around 5/$100 unless you go back to Mike Hampton. Can anyone think of the biggest contracts given to pitchers aged 33 or older in their first year of the new deal?

 

http://www.foxsports.com/mlb/just-a-bit-outside/baseball-joe/blog/history-hurts-shields-chances-at-landing-a-big-contract-012715

 

You're right in Buehrle being the best precedent for Shields. He could be looking at a ceiling of the Burnett contract, but I think people have gotten wiser in the years since then and realize that's not a good deal.

[Laika]

http://www.foxsports.com/mlb/just-a-bit-outside/baseball-joe/blog/history-hurts-shields-chances-at-landing-a-big-contract-012715

 

You're right in Buehrle being the best precedent for Shields. He could be looking at a ceiling of the Burnett contract, but I think people have gotten wiser in the years since then and realize that's not a good deal.

 

Forgot about Burnett. He looked like a huge bust but the Pittsburgh bounce-back made him worth / nearly worth the contract --> 12.4 fWAR would probably have been worth something approaching 80M in that time frame.

 

Agree that I'd name Buehrle and Burnett (+ inflation) as the lower and upper limits.

[Angrioter]

Ben Nicholson-Smith

#BlueJays don't expect to add 2B, but want to add relief depth per AA

[reedjohnsonfan]

If he's getting a contract in that range, we had better be asking Rogers for some extra payroll space.

 

It's really odd. Sometimes things just don't work out, but at 4/60 it looks like plenty of teams should be in on that. You have to wonder if there's some red flags that we don't know about.

[Angrioter]

Brendan Kennedy ‏

Likewise, as he has also hinted at before, AA says he's not as concerned about a "closer" as he is about the "general depth" of the bullpen.

Dioner Navarro will be with the #bluejays at spring training "barring something unforeseen," AA said.

[Ehjays]

Not sure if this has been posted but heres Keith Law chat blue jays related Pompey and Sanchez

 

[Ehjays]

Q: Which pitcher from your top 100 list has the most injury-vulnerable delivery?

LAW: Aaron Sanchez. At some point he shortened his stride, and guys who shorten their stride like that end up hurt. Tyler Skaggs blew his elbow out, Taijuan Walker has had a bunch of shoulder issues. Sanchez has stayed healthy - I hope he stays healthy. I hope they lengthen his stride because you can't pitch like that. That's a medical evaluation, not even a baseball evaluation. You ask guys who study injuries, like Dr. (James) Andrews' people, and they'll tell you: it doesn't work. It's amazing that he's kept his stuff but I'm very concerned about his health. I hope he gets back to the delivery he used to have.

[Ehjays]

Question < Dalton Pompey wasn't even on your top 100 list - or probably anyone's for that matter - last year, yet here he is ranked 42nd and in the mix to be the Opening Day center fielder for the Toronto Blue Jays. How do you explain Pompey's sudden rise through the ranks and what does his ceiling look like?

 

 

LAW:I think he got a bit stronger and the plate discipline was already pretty solid. He maintained it even though they kept promoting him last year. It's one thing to have good plate discipline for your age and your level and take good at bats, that's great. But eventually you move up to Double-A and all of a sudden that back door slider is a pitch you've never seen located before and it never seemed to phase him, actually. He can play the heck out of center field, he's a good athlete, the swings look good, all the other elements are there.

 

I think you're looking at an above average every day center fielder, probably getting to that level after another year or so. He got to the majors really quickly and I understand there's some debate over whether he'll start the season in the big leagues. At this point, I don't know that he's got a lot left to learn in the minors. I would be willing to let him struggle a little bit in 2015 in the majors if I thought it would advance his long-term development, and I do.

 

That means 2016-17 you're looking at a guy who really is your anchor - a plus defender who gets on base at a great clip and adds a lot of value on the bases. That's probably a top 10 center fielder in baseball once he gets to that peak.

[Abomination]

Question < Dalton Pompey wasn't even on your top 100 list - or probably anyone's for that matter - last year, yet here he is ranked 42nd and in the mix to be the Opening Day center fielder for the Toronto Blue Jays. How do you explain Pompey's sudden rise through the ranks and what does his ceiling look like?

 

 

LAW:I think he got a bit stronger and the plate discipline was already pretty solid. He maintained it even though they kept promoting him last year. It's one thing to have good plate discipline for your age and your level and take good at bats, that's great. But eventually you move up to Double-A and all of a sudden that back door slider is a pitch you've never seen located before and it never seemed to phase him, actually. He can play the heck out of center field, he's a good athlete, the swings look good, all the other elements are there.

 

I think you're looking at an above average every day center fielder, probably getting to that level after another year or so. He got to the majors really quickly and I understand there's some debate over whether he'll start the season in the big leagues. At this point, I don't know that he's got a lot left to learn in the minors. I would be willing to let him struggle a little bit in 2015 in the majors if I thought it would advance his long-term development, and I do.

 

That means 2016-17 you're looking at a guy who really is your anchor - a plus defender who gets on base at a great clip and adds a lot of value on the bases. That's probably a top 10 center fielder in baseball once he gets to that peak.

 

Sounds pretty damn good to me!

[Ehjays]

I agree

[Angrioter]

Sanchez TJS and Pompey the next Grazy Sizemore!!

[L54]

Question < Dalton Pompey wasn't even on your top 100 list - or probably anyone's for that matter - last year, yet here he is ranked 42nd and in the mix to be the Opening Day center fielder for the Toronto Blue Jays. How do you explain Pompey's sudden rise through the ranks and what does his ceiling look like?

 

 

LAW:I think he got a bit stronger and the plate discipline was already pretty solid. He maintained it even though they kept promoting him last year. It's one thing to have good plate discipline for your age and your level and take good at bats, that's great. But eventually you move up to Double-A and all of a sudden that back door slider is a pitch you've never seen located before and it never seemed to phase him, actually. He can play the heck out of center field, he's a good athlete, the swings look good, all the other elements are there.

 

I think you're looking at an above average every day center fielder, probably getting to that level after another year or so. He got to the majors really quickly and I understand there's some debate over whether he'll start the season in the big leagues. At this point, I don't know that he's got a lot left to learn in the minors. I would be willing to let him struggle a little bit in 2015 in the majors if I thought it would advance his long-term development, and I do.

 

That means 2016-17 you're looking at a guy who really is your anchor - a plus defender who gets on base at a great clip and adds a lot of value on the bases. That's probably a top 10 center fielder in baseball once he gets to that peak.

 

Boner alert.

[TwistedLogic]

Hope he's made it into the leadoff spot by 2016.

[L54]

Now please don't go Travis Snider on us Dalton!

[RealAccountant]

it is possible that the AA hasn't used the remaining payroll, because he is somehow wishing to sign Shields on a back-loaded 5 year deal.

[G-Snarls]

Danny Valencia Wins Arbitration Hearing Against Blue Jays

 

By Steve Adams [February 6, 2015 at 8:01am CST]

 

The Blue Jays and Danny Valencia had an arbitration hearing yesterday, according to the Associated Press, and the team announced this morning that the arbitrator ruled in favor of Valencia. The 30-year-old Valencia had filed for a salary of $1.675MM, while the team countered at $1.2MM, as can be seen in MLBTR’s Arbitration Tracker. The MVP Sports client will now earn that $1.675MM figure in 2015.

 

As Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet notes, on Twitter, this marks the first time since 1997 that the Blue Jays have gone to an arbitration hearing rather than settling a case in advance (Toronto last went to trial with right-handed pitcher Bill Risley). They’ll likely have a second trial in the near future with offseason acquisition Josh Donaldson as well, given Toronto’s stance as a “file and trial” team in recent years. (That is, a team that does not negotiate arbitration contracts beyond the date that figures are to be exchanged.)

 

Valencia batted .258/.296/.371 with four home runs last season in 86 games/284 plate appearances between the Royals and Blue Jays. While he’s never replicated his outstanding .311/.351/.448 rookie season with the Twins (he finished third in the AL Rookie of the Year voting in that 2010 season), he’s carved out a niche as a weapon against left-handed pitching. Valencia hit .321/.371/.464 against southpaws last season and is a lifetime .327/.368/.502 hitter when holding the platoon advantage.

[G-Snarls]

I didn't know they had actually gone to arbitration with anyone

[flafson]

I didn't know they had actually gone to arbitration with anyone

 

Probably why Beeston said the payroll goes up, they are thinking those arbitration players.

[sdyment]

it is possible that the AA hasn't used the remaining payroll, because he is somehow wishing to sign Shields on a back-loaded 5 year deal.

 

I always had a hunch that AA's intention all along was to wait until ST and pick up a bargain based on what was left. I guess we'll find out soon.

[Governator]

blue jays please don't go treating dalton like travis snider.

 

fyp

[Deadpool]

I didn't see this anywhere else, but Valencia won his arb hearing

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/02/danny-valencia-wins-arbitration-hearing-against-blue-jays.html

[Spanky99]

I didn't see this anywhere else, but Valencia won his arb hearing

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/02/danny-valencia-wins-arbitration-hearing-against-blue-jays.html

 

lol...just a few posts up?

[Spanky99]

It's BEER O'Clock...WOOHOO!!!