Jays align Stroman’s start with McGowan’s

[Orgfiller]

Walking 8 batters is clearly unacceptable, there is no sugar coating it.

 

No one's sugar coating it, but when he's still the best starter on the team after probably the worst start of his career says something.

[jaysblue]

No one's sugar coating it, but when he's still the best starter on the team after probably the worst start of his career says something.

 

Morrow the best starter on this team? Common seriously.

[Orgfiller]

Morrow the best starter on this team? Common seriously.

 

Before the last start, which was undeniably horrible, he was striking out 10.5/9, not walking too many, had increased GB% from previous years and also had a higher SwStr% than the last three years. Obviously in a very small sample, but he was up there with Hutch and Buerhle.

[jaysblue]

Before the last start, which was undeniably horrible, he was striking out 10.5/9, not walking too many, had increased GB% from previous years and also had a higher SwStr% than the last three years. Obviously in a very small sample, but he was up there with Hutch and Buerhle.

 

Hutch and Buerhle have been better. Morrow has the "potential" to be the Jays best starter, not denying that. Though he hasn't proven that yet, and I'm not confident he'll cash in on that potential taking everything into consideration.

[Orgfiller]

Peripherals had been awesome.

 

I remember that you had also pointed out that Navarro didn't help him one bit on framing (in the last start). How many strikes did he lose?

[jaysblue]

Peripherals had been awesome.

 

Peripherals have been great yes, though Hutch and MB have been better pitchers so far this season.

[Orgfiller]

Hutch and Buerhle have been better. Morrow has the "potential" to be the Jays best starter, not denying that. Though he hasn't proven that yet, and I'm not confident he'll cash in on that potential taking everything into consideration.

 

I understand not believing in his consistency, and that's not what I was getting at. But statistically speaking, he was better than Buerhle and Hutchison, the latter whom I believe is currently our best starter. I'm still a big Morrow fan, probably more than most, and I think he can still have a good season.

[Orgfiller]

Peripherals have been great yes, though Hutch and MB have been better pitchers so far this season.

 

Aside from his first start, Buerhle has been Buerhle as usual, junkballing his way to long outings where he doesn't walk many but doesn't strike out many either, he also has a 3.3 HR/FB%, and that's not sustainable. Hutch I think is/was a lot closer because he had similar peripherals, and is the better pitcher atm.

[Chappy]

Peripherals have been great yes, though Hutch and MB have been better pitchers so far this season.

 

Yup. Morrow has shown signs of greatness, but he needs to improve his consistency. What's his pitch per inning at right now? I'm too lazy to check but I am assuming it's not good at all.

[Orgfiller]

Don't have data for exact strikes readily, but he lost 3 strikeouts yesterday by xK%, and had 2 extra walks.

 

That's pretty substantial, though I won't put 100% blame on Navarro since we were playing Boston, and they sure seem to get a lot of favourable calls year to year.

[jaysblue]

Hutch yes, Buehrle no.

 

I'd rather take MB's 33 innings over Morrows 22 through 5 starts at this point. Morrow obviously has much better swing and miss stuff, we all know, though when he can't pitch deep into games, that's a big turnoff for me. Morrow averaging less than 5IP/per start so far this season is unacceptable and also impacts the bullpen since the Jays are forced to use guys like Rogers after, and overwork their other solid pen arms which definitely has a lasting impact not just in that game, but for the next day as well.

 

I'm a big Brandon Morrow fan, and I obviously think he can be the best pitcher on this staff if he's stays healthy and starts becoming more consistent, though in my opinion I've been disappointed with his performance so far.

[Chappy]

Pitch per inning is greatly affected by BABIP, so not really relevant.

 

It most certainly is relevant. Efficiency is important. I understand that it's not all in his control, but the bulk of it is. If he can't adjust then it is a huge flaw.

[jaysblue]

Aside from his first start, Buerhle has been Buerhle as usual, junkballing his way to long outings where he doesn't walk many but doesn't strike out many either, he also has a 3.3 HR/FB%, and that's not sustainable. Hutch I think is/was a lot closer because he had similar peripherals, and is the better pitcher atm.

 

I know MB isn't going to sustain this success all year. Though through the first month of April, you can't say Morrow has been > MB. I know all the stats like xFIP etc favour Morrow, though considering MB has given the Jays quality innings rather than burning out in the 5th-6th almost every outing, that holds its own value.

 

Hutch has been the Jays best pitcher at the moment agreed.

[Chappy]

I know MB isn't going to sustain this success all year. Though through the first month of April, you can't say Morrow has been > MB. I know all the stats like xFIP etc favour Morrow, though considering MB has given the Jays quality innings rather than burning out in the 5th-6th almost every outing, that holds its own value.

 

Hutch has been the Jays best pitcher at the moment agreed.

 

At some point results matter and Morrow just doesn't have them.

[Orgfiller]

I know MB isn't going to sustain this success all year. Though through the first month of April, you can't say Morrow has been > MB. I know all the stats like xFIP etc favour Morrow, though considering MB has given the Jays quality innings rather than burning out in the 5th-6th almost every outing, that holds its own value.

 

Hutch has been the Jays best pitcher at the moment agreed.

 

I agree with your overall reasoning, and I think you see my point as well, the problem I have with Buerhle's starts is that when he isn't striking out guys and relying too much on the defense it's concerning because the next game those same hit balls could be dropping in, I appreciate greatly Buerhle's endurance, but I'd take 5-6 innings of pure dominance than maybe 7 of junkballing and relying on BABIP luck, because the former usually leads to better results.

[jaysblue]

And now they're not awesome.

 

And he's topped out at 6 IP in one game. And that was actually only one game. 6, 5, 5, 3.2, 2.2 are his IP in a game.

 

He is, just as he always was, and always will be, a reliever.

 

He lacks the efficiency, the command and the health to be a starter.

 

I've been dealing with the idjits FIPing out about him since his first year in Toronto, when I was then stating he was a reliever. And he's still a reliever.

 

So far, he hasn't given me much confidence that he could hold up as a starter in terms of staying healthy and consistency.

 

I love using stats like xFIP, SIERA, BABIP, SwStr% to evaluate pitchers, so they are not BS stats. They can tell a lot about how good a pitcher really is. Obviously for a pitcher like Morrow, he's always going to have a lower xFIP than an ERA since he generates a lot of strikeouts. Though from watching him over the last how many years on a regular basis, you can't just look at those numbers and use them for the whole side of an argument in every case. When Morrow can't pitch past the 5th inning almost every start, that is a huge turnoff for me. Starting pitchers need to pitch deep into games, plain and simple. That's there job. If Morrow can't provide innings, I don't care what his periperals and other stats like K/9, xFIP etc suggest.

[Chappy]

I agree with your overall reasoning, and I think you see my point as well, the problem I have with Buerhle's starts is that when he isn't striking out guys and relying too much on the defense it's concerning because the next game those same hit balls could be dropping in, I appreciate greatly Buerhle's endurance, but I'd take 5-6 innings of pure dominance than maybe 7 of junkballing and relying on BABIP luck, because the former usually leads to better results.

 

The problem is that you are talking about a 2 inning difference. No questioning Morrow has the potential to be dominant, but he is a pen killer and that will cost the team heavily as the season progresses. Other than the number 5 SP, every other starter should at least give 6 innings per start on average and even then that's still not enough unless a couple of guys consistently give you 7+ innings.

[Chappy]

19.3 right now. Highest of his career, a career plagued by pitch inefficiency. The highest "qualified" pitcher right now is Ubaldo Jimenez at 18.8. The highest last year was 17.7. The highest over the last 12 years was Al Leiter at 18.7, and usually the highest in a season is in the mid 17's.

 

Until that number comes down, it hurts his actual value to the team even if he starts producing better results. 15 or 16 outs a game is going to kill then pen over the course of a season. You maybe expect that from your worst starter, not one of your top 4 guys.

[jaysblue]

I agree with your overall reasoning, and I think you see my point as well, the problem I have with Buerhle's starts is that when he isn't striking out guys and relying too much on the defense it's concerning because the next game those same hit balls could be dropping in, I appreciate greatly Buerhle's endurance, but I'd take 5-6 innings of pure dominance than maybe 7 of junkballing and relying on BABIP luck, because the former usually leads to better results.

 

Thing is Brandon Morrow really hasn't shown 5-6 innings of pure dominance on a consistent basis this season

 

I obviously think we both understand each others point of view and reasonings. I definitely enjoy the debate, won't lie. Hopefully Morrow turns it around but the Jays need to start seeing results sooner rather than later.

[jaysblue]

The problem is that you are talking about a 2 inning difference. No questioning Morrow has the potential to be dominant, but he is a pen killer and that will cost the team heavily as the season progresses. Other than the number 5 SP, every other starter should at least give 6 innings per start on average and even then that's still not enough unless a couple of guys consistently give you 7+ innings.

 

100% agreed. Over a full season, it has a huge impact on the bullpen, which many people undermine and things that xFIP and other stats don't show. When the Jays are forced to tax their solid arms that early and often it definitely has a lasting impact.

[Chappy]

Swapping Stroman for McGowan probably makes Morrows inefficiencies more tolerable, especially if Stroman can give us 6 innings per start. You know guys like Buehrle and Dickey will give is 200+ innings and Hutch right now seems to be going well.

[Orgfiller]

Thing is Brandon Morrow really hasn't shown 5-6 innings of pure dominance on a consistent basis this season

 

I obviously think we both understand each others point of view and reasonings. I definitely enjoy the debate, won't lie. Hopefully Morrow turns it around but the Jays need to start seeing results sooner rather than later.

 

I agree, let's just leave it at that, seeing as though we're still very early in the season, and hope that he's able to go deeper into games while still having great outings

[Chappy]

100% agreed. Over a full season, it has a huge impact on the bullpen, which many people undermine and things that xFIP and other stats don't show. When the Jays are forced to tax their solid arms that early and often it definitely has a lasting impact.

 

Yup. This rotation will result in guys like Jenkins and other crap getting called up probably on a consistent basis at the expense of more qualified options like Wagner because we will need more long relievers every time the rotation blows up. This is where the value of an Ervin Santana is missed. I know a lot didn't want him here but 200 solid innings might mean 40-50 less garbage innings from the pen and subsequently more quality innings from the pen due to more frequent rest.

[Orgfiller]

Swapping Stroman for McGowan probably makes Morrows inefficiencies more tolerable, especially if Stroman can give us 6 innings per start. You know guys like Buehrle and Dickey will give is 200+ innings and Hutch right now seems to be going well.

 

McGowan is killing us right now, at least with Morrow there's hope that he can go 6 or 7+ (c'mon guys he's not THAT inefficient) but with Dustin you're lucky if he makes it to 5, and even he says that his arm is tired by then. Stroman would be a great addition to the ball club, and hopefully that means one of our many long relievers gets sent down.

[theblujay]

I really want McGowan to succeed, but I also really want Stroman to be called up

[G-Snarls]

Swapping Stroman for McGowan probably makes Morrows inefficiencies more tolerable, especially if Stroman can give us 6 innings per start. You know guys like Buehrle and Dickey will give is 200+ innings and Hutch right now seems to be going well.

 

Gibby probably also has to plan on leaving Bueurle and Dickey in longer too. Just because the leadoff man doubles in the 6th or 7th doesn't mean you have run to the pen immediately, and he seems to do that, even with his two workhorses. They're workhorses. Unless they look out of gas, let them roll another inning or so.

[G-Snarls]

I really want McGowan to succeed, but I also really want Stroman to be called up

 

It's a dilemma I share. But I have lost confidence that McGowan can carry a starter's workload, and Gibby/AA have as well. I COULD see them piggybacking him and another guy every 6th day during these 20-game stretches, even though I don't think it's a particularly good idea.

[Chappy]

Gibby probably also has to plan on leaving Bueurle and Dickey in longer too. Just because the leadoff man doubles in the 6th or 7th doesn't mean you have run to the pen immediately, and he seems to do that, even with his two workhorses. They're workhorses. Unless they look out of gas, let them roll another inning or so.

 

That's just it. An inefficient SP affects more than just the innings they pitch. If they can't make it through 6 innings on average then the pen starts to get overworked, quality guys with options get sent down for inferior arms that are 'fresh', and your horses end up having to go longer at times when they probably shouldn't.

[Orgfiller]

Gibby probably also has to plan on leaving Bueurle and Dickey in longer too. Just because the leadoff man doubles in the 6th or 7th doesn't mean you have run to the pen immediately, and he seems to do that, even with his two workhorses. They're workhorses. Unless they look out of gas, let them roll another inning or so.

 

There have been multiple occasions this year where Buerhle has been taken out too soon, that's on Gibbons, if we have a big lead or he isn't getting hit around, it's inexcusable to take him out and waste the pen.

[kgm1]

Stroman over McGowan could be a huge upgrade. I agree the rotation looks a lot better with Stroman. Move McGowan to the pen and dump Happ. McGowan could end up being a very good long reliever for us.[/QUOTe

 

I had hoped Mcgowan could make the move but I said one more start and he gets that on Tues. Pitch him 4 innings and have Happ already knowing he is coming in in the 5th inning. we need to tandem start these guys . Gibby talks about giving Happ starts in May and June so lets see what he has . One tandem start at a time and if it works great. If not it is Stroman time.

 

As for Morrow, we have no choice but to hope and pray he gets his command .