Olerud363.354

Clase. 2024. Untouchable in regular season. Awful in playoffs. Any signal there?

Clemens had 10.7 fWAR (11 bWAR) with Jays in 1997, then around 8 in 1998. Then he was traded for fWAR pennies on the dollar. Gord Ash man. Did that twice with Shawn Green too. Tried to replace the player, not the value. People should keep expectations for Yesavage in check. It would be great if he stays healthy and becomes a good 3. If he's more that's great too. Pitching fWAR is interesting because pitchers aren't pitching as much as they used two. Clemens got his 10+ fWAR in 264 innings. Yesavage might be 2/3 of that next year. The best pitchers in baseball might be 2/3 of that. So if position players are still doing full workloads, but Pitchers are doing 2/3 what they used to how to evaluate that? The best pitchers 180 innings of 5-6 fWAR might all be in leverage (because every game they keep the team in it), while Fernando Tatis has some fWAR in not leverage.

If Roberts managed the Jays they probably would have won that series... not saying he is a great manager just the right guy for the circumstance of the series. For example one thing he did was save the defensive subs for the most critical circumstance. Did not sub Pages in until after Kirk got hit in game 7. With that philosophy Jays likely win game 3. With optimal lineup construction they likely win game 7. Not trying to argue Roberts is a great manager. His decisions just worked out for the circumstances of the series, and I think same philosophy would have worked out for the Jays.... Like wait longer for defensive subs and pinch running they win game 3.

So was Nathan Lukes. Same numbers regular season and World Series. I'm not trying to be a jerk to Lukes at all, and appreciate what he did for us this year. Bringing Yamamoto out for game 7 was a gutsy call, should get credit for that. That is part of my point. Every single other time Vlad hit second he slumped, but he was great game 4 and 5 of World Series hitting second. He did more in 2 games hitting second in LA, then he had for 20 game stretches in his mid-season hitting second runs. At that point there was no reason to not keep him there. Because of the butterfly effect you can't exactly reconstruct the game with Vlad hitting 2nd instead of Lucas/Schneider/Straw (if you did and everyone did the same thing, Jays win). Nevertheless second spot was 0 for 6 getting on base that game.

Also keeping Lucas second in games 6 and 7. I mentioned this before and got some grief. It's like people haven't watched the team since 2021. THERE have been several attempts to get Vlad to hit second. They go with it for a few weeks and inevitably have back-tracked several times as he just hasn't performed as well there. But... they hit him second games 4 and 5 and he was great. So it like perfect opportunity to keep him there. The second spot in the line-up screwed us in game 7. If game 7 lineup is Springer Vlad Bichette Barger Kirk Lucas Clement Varsho Jiminez Jays are world series champs. Dave Roberts probably wins the series if he managed either side. And absolutely no disrespect to Schneider at all. He is great. He values making guys comfortable and keeping them in their roles, which is how Cito won World Series. However this scenario. The 'win or lose by an inch' World Series, Dave Roberts making some adjustments won it... if he managed the Jays and fiddled with roles Jays might have won it.

They'll go that way if they can. They'll also have backup plans in case they can't.

Seems like they were open to this in the recent past. I believe they had him play 3rd 100 innings in 2024 and were open to signing Alonso. Seems like with his arm he won't be any worse at third then at first. What I mean is some guys would be worse, if they couldn't make plays because of arm strength. Not the case with Vlad. Also interesting that Miquel Cabrera moved back to third at age 29. Defense scored good enough and won 2 MVPs. They probably are thinking this. I heard a quote that there could even be a way to fit Schwarber in. My guess is they have a plan for how to accomadate every major free agent. Probably have a value for a Clemente/Giminez/Bo/Vlad infield, and a Vlad/Giminez/Clement/Naylor infield and so on. Also heard they are not married to Giminez at short. Would even consider Bo as a shortstop or others. They like him there but are open to lots of plans.

Dusty Baker started 3 years after Cito. Never made the playoffs for his first few years (albeit won 103 games as a new manager), had 3 bad seasons but still survived then was employed for 30 years getting jobs with 5 teams until finally a World Series 30 years after he started. A lot of smoke around Cito regarding handling young players, pitcher workloads, relation with media. Won't rehash it all but maybe reasons other than racism that he didn't get jobs, especially since Dusty did fine with multiple organizations.

It happened with Cito Gaston when he came back as hitting coach just 2 years after getting fired as manager. Fired late September 1997, rehired as hitting coach November 1999.

He led AL in innings so gets a bit of a boost in fWAR compared to guys who pitched a little less or some a lot less (like Snell and Glasnow). Also as close to Sonny Gray (17th) as he is to Hunter Browne (9th) on that fan graphs WAR list. You consider him at a level with 92 Guzman? Yamamoto? Not even trying to diss Gausman here. Truth is he is 1-6 in his playoff starts for us. No fault of his own some tough match ups and tough luck. Don't really consider him a true 'ace' is all. Maybe I'm wrong here.

"Billy is still trying to win the last game of the season" Such is life.... Billy maybe ended up winning the .... 14th or something last game of the season at best?

The first "Major League" movie ended when the old catcher beat out a bunt and I guess won the AL East against the Yankees.... No ALCS or World Series depicted, though maybe in the sequel? Never saw it. A classic running book, that I am sure none of you are familiar with, called "once a runner" deals with a guy Quentin Cassidy who goes through a lot of trials and turbulations and wins a big battle in the end, but it's not the Olympics... then the last paragraph reveals he won a silver at the Olympics. Such is life. People on this board would rather be the 2023 Arizona Diamondbacks though I guess...

Santander, Hoffman + ? for Trout + ? Like if you use one of those trade calculators what are the + Trout owed 5 years 190 million I think. So taking away Santander + Hoffman salary gets it to 5 years 110 million or something. But what else to even it out? Does LAA want to do Trout a service and get him in contention? Does Trout want to get in contention? Is Trout too crazy a risk? Will he play 134 games ever again?

People will probably give the "you smoking crack again Olerud" thing for this one... but it was a small thing that effected the series. If Bieber is not recovering from TJ he probably goes game 3 and 7. Butterfly effect so you don't know how exactly that works, but a healthy Bieber gives a slightly better chance of winning those games (Scherzer was fine obviously, but at the same time only went 4 1/3 each time, so more stress on bullpen those games).,

It hurts but basically Jays were a good but flawed team and in the end they were not resilient to bad luck because flaws got them. 1. Their two best relievers by fWAR (Little and Fischer) were not trusted in leverage. 2. Their worst reliever by fWAR was trusted. Not saying this was wrong, just pointing out they didn't have a lights out bullpen. 3. Their 2nd starter (Bieber) was recovering from Tommy John and couldn't effectively go with 4 days rest. 4. Their 2nd and 3rd best hitters were injured and bench players ended up subbing for them in critical spots. 5. Their "ace" was a 10-11 3.50 ERA guy. Not dissing Gausman at all. But how many posters here always argue that to win in the Playoffs you need a "true" number one. LA had that. Jays had a great pitcher but not at the same level. Another thing, that isn't really a flaw, but just something that happened. Is LA hit for power late in games. Jays didn't. I think LA out-homered Jays 7-0 7th inning and later. Nit-picking all the little plays is overshadowing this. But ironically the tripes "need power to win in playoffs" and "need an ace to win in playoffs" actually factored in this time... but it should be pretty obvious that a scrappy contact hitting team without an true Ace could win too.

Not trolling at all. They tried to hit Vlad second multiple times since 2021. He doesn't hit as well and the experiment ends after a few weeks. They tried for the first 70 games or so this year. I like Lukes, I even like Hoffman and regardless whether you think Lukes should play ahead of Santander or not he probably shouldn't hit second. In game 7 the closer spot and the 2nd spot in the lineup killed us. And part of the issue with Lukes second is the risk Straw ends up there late in the game (which he did). Most games these things don't burn you. But in the most critical game of the season it did. Mookie and Lucas hit about the same regular season and World Series. People keep making jokes that now Mookie is a glorified slap hitter and shadow of his former self, but Lukes hitting at the same level is fine. Mookie got moved down in the lineup and everyone thought it was a good move. Nathan Lukes performed about the same but still hit second games 6 and 7. In retrospect Vlad was great hitting second in LA, so maybe they should have taken the opportunity to keep him there games 6 and 7. Going forward need to consider the second spot in the lineup and the closer spot when constructing the roster. This could be getting Vlad comfortable hitting second. This could be getting Hoffman back to 2024 form. This could be signing Bo and hitting him second. Or Barger if he keeps taking steps forward. Can't have second spot with a lower OPS then closer has OPS against. Dodgers made adjustment in World Series to prevent that.

Could we do a Gord Ash Roger Clemens style trade? Jose Berrios, Mason Fluharty, Joey Loperfido ... for ... Skubal! I jest. Ash traded 9 WAR or so of Clemens for about 6 WAR over 3 players and those 3 actually out-wared Clemens in 1999. Ash kind of liked to trade Major leaguers for their replacements (like Mondesi in return for Shaun Green). If Berrios was healthy could potentially do Berrios/Lukes/Little or something if Tigers wanted major league players. Of course that is ridiculous given what Berrios is, and maybe ridiculous even Berrios was at his best. Just that there was a time when trades like that happened.

Another offseason question is who is the closer late next year? Even if Hoffman starts as closer what is the plan if he has a .750 OPS against again? You can't let him do that again. If he has normal closer numbers go with him sure.

So off-season Roster question is this. Can Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hit second or does it mess with his mind too much? Seemed fine in game 4 and 5. Need to figure out 1-2-3. Springer Bo Vlad? Springer Barger Vlad? Springer Tucker Vlad? Does anyone really think Springer Lukes/Schneider Vlad is the way to go again?

In game 7 the second spot was 0 for 5 with a sac bunt. The weakness of Lucas a center piece of your offense is also that he doesn't play the whole game often and then you end up with Straw in the second spot.

Many teams have close to this even if they don't have Sota and Hosh Hader. It's not just replacing Lukes with Soto. It's lineup configuration. Like hitting Vlad second, Lucas 7th and working on developing I guess an at least average closer. Of course not every World Series team has a .900 OPS second hitter, and .500 OPS (against) closer, but I bet hardly any have .700/.750. Two cases close to the heart In the 7th game of the World Series the LA Dodgers used a .900 OPS hitter 2nd (Will Smith) and a late inning pitcher Yamamoto, with a .536 OPS against. It's like using Eugenia Suarez and Crawford on the left side of your infield. It's the kind of thing that doesn't hurt you until it does. Like they don't NOT make 10 plays a week, that would add up to a couple hundred runs in a year, but people were arguing there were "several" plays they didn't make in the ALCS, which could be true if the right circumstances collide with them. In game 7 Will Smith crushed several balls that Nathan Lukes (and Schneider and Straw) didn't. Other case 1993 Roberto Alomar .900 OPS, 1993 Duane Ward .530 OPS against. Jeff Hoffman/Nathan Lukes was a weakpoint that eventually burnt us, just like some argued Suarez/Crawford defense was a weakpoint that burnt them.

Tony Batista was next level with a career 89 wRC+ but lots of 30 homer 100 rbi seasons. The only advanced thing Gord Ash ever did was put Batista on waivers when he tried to send him down to the minors in 2001 (after a 41 110 season). Crazy stuff. Baltimore claimed him, but Ash and his team correctly assessed Batista's skill level (after failing to do it for similar players 'cough' old Joe Carter 'cough' for several years). Speaking of which Joe Carter and Salvadore Perez according to fangraphs have the same life time WAR and same wRC+. How that works out is a bit hard to figure. Joe Carter at catcher should be better than Joe Carter in left field. I guess Joe Carter played more games so got a bit more WAR, and Perez does not get any defense love from fangraphs. Plus to be accurate Perez is 2 WAR ahead... One would figure in a couple years Perez will build his lead over Carter... but this type of player can put up negative WAR over their last seasons so maybe Perez will tie Carter yet.

Lukes didn't have a great World Series and I think Lukes and Hoffman were the weak points in game 7. Hitters hit better against Hoffman than Lukes hit. Lukes hit .255 .323 .407 and hitters against Hoffman were .213 .298 .447. No team perfect. Next year second hitter needs higher OPS than closer. Many teams have closer with .500 OPS against, and second hitter .900 OPS. Edit: Obviously above statement not exactly True except for Mets when Sota hit second. However Jays could probably accomplish that by hitting Vlad Second and improving the closer. So that is stat I will watch. Second hitter OPS, and closer OPS against, and it needs to be better.

Dodgers strike out way more than the Jays and employ Teoscar Hernandez. If it came down to a healthy Lukes vs a healthy Santander Dodgers wouldn't make the decision based on any philosophy just on maximizing wins. Just don't want to see the Jays get to attached to the 'contact first' philosophy at the expense of making poor roster decisions. Santander is already signed for 5 years, and if he can provide 2 or 3 WAR for a couple more years need to take advantage of that. I could also see him being done. Lot of injuries. Just want the team to make the Santander/Lukes decision on health, not get married to Lukes because he is a contact hitter.

Yes to SHUT DOWN CLOSER. Whether somone new or getting Hoffman back to 2024 form (if that is possible). Ideally want a closer with below .300 slugging against. Mistake to get married to any philosophy. LA didn't have extreme low whiff philosophy and beat us with solo homers in 3 of their 4 wins. Anthony Santander is younger than Nathan Lukes by 3 months (hard to believe). They are close to the same fWAR/162 but Santander can do it without a platoon mate. Healthy Santander could provide for one Roster spot what a Lukes / Platoon Partner does for 2. We are already owe Satander the money. Do you guys think Santander is permanently broken? If he could get back to 2023 level need to play him and probably trade Lukes. If he is broken beyond repair then keep Lukes,.