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Olerud363.354

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Everything posted by Olerud363.354

  1. Olerud363.354
    Horwitz - .878 minor league OPS, .790 MLB Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - .945 minors .855 majors. Both lose 90 points off of minor league OPS. Despite massive differences in bat speed, exit velocity and tools, baseball reference casual fan stats scout still works for both. At least in this case.
  2. Olerud363.354
    https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/horwisp01.shtml Awesome to see Horwitz doing good. Really like the guy. He has the profile that fancy people like to say won't work. Kind of like Roden. But it does work, or at least just as often as any other profile. Not a clear fit for him here anyway. I guess maybe if we wanted a first basemen with a bit more pop we could use him.
  3. Olerud363.354
    Not that I am any kind of expert on this but seems like he isn't getting quite as much chase as last year, so getting behind in some counts, but is doing a good job hitting the edges of the strike zone. Might be a similar guy to Gausman, where it's a constant battle to make sure there are no tells between fastball and splitter.
  4. Olerud363.354
    Didn't Aaron Judge, Jazz, Polanco, and Cal Raleigh* all hit game changing/winning homeruns off him? I know Judge's was on that 99 mph fastball in for the most legendary clutch homerun of all time, can't remember what pitch Polanco, Jazz and Raleigh's pitch. * Springer unchanged that game 7
  5. Olerud363.354
    A hard needle for a big market to manage and it would depress the hell out of all of us. If they anywhere near WC3 they will either buy or hold. So would have to be like 45-60 at deadline, then go crazy and sneak in.
  6. Olerud363.354
    What happened before will happen again. Question is whether he now goes full Jayson Heyward, or goes back to good Vlad for some significant time periods.
  7. Olerud363.354
    I still think he is beat up or hands aren't right. Exit Vs still seem down, homer yesterday was 105 mph 365 feet. After the game he made an odd comment yesterday about his slump not being over until he hits one where he can just stand at the plate and watch it. He should be hitting a few balls over 112 every week... until I see that not convinced he's right.
  8. Olerud363.354
    Did not mean to imply you were hyping Williams. Just that people were a few years ago.
  9. Olerud363.354
    Toronto Blue Jays a.k.a. 2014 Kansas City Royals 2014 Kansas Royals had Eric Hosmer - 2026 Toronto Blue Jays have Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Explain the difference??? You can't!
  10. Olerud363.354
    Updated with new modeling from Jays Center and predicted run differentials Predictions for Toronto Blue Jays (a.k.a. 2014 Kansas City Royals) vs New York Yankees (a.k.a. 1961 New York Yankees (Judge/Rice > Mantle/Maris) Jays Center: Jays sweep. 11-5 run differential Michael Kay: Yankees sweep. 44-5 run differential Olerud363: Yankees 3-1 25-14 run differential Fangraphs: Yankees 3-1 21-14 run differential
  11. Olerud363.354
    We have the team with the most homers and the most walks in the AL, against the team with the least walks. This is a mis-match on paper. Some may argue the Jays are the 2014/2015/ Kansas City Royals. If so they are doing it in reverse, last year they were the 2015 Kansas City Royals and just missed. This year they are the 2014 Kansas City Royals. A scrappy team with no walks and no power and no probable path to anything, the only road open right now is the Royals 2014 path. They make the playoffs with 83 wins or something and a bunch of fluky things happen. Predictions from the different modeling approaches. Jays Center Hive Mind - Jays win series 3-1 on their way to Kansas City 2014 style World Series appearance. Olerud363 - Bill James is not dumb. Walks and power are important. Yankees win series 3-1. Michael Kay - Justice will be served, In the end the righteous come out on top. Yankees sweep with 44 - 9 run differential. Fangraphs - Yankees are better team. Likely win series 3-1.
  12. Olerud363.354
    Second worst offense I have seen after 1997 and quite close actually. Many similarities Cease/Gausman are similar to Clemens/Hentgen Old George Springer is roughly similar to old Joe Carter (not exactly, but kind of albeit with more recent success?) Lenyn Sosa is similar to the right handed hitting nonsense the 1997 Jays would throw out (Brumfield, Juan Samuel) except worse. Last in on base percentage, last in walks is exactly what they did in 1997. We presume Shatkins, Schneider, Popkins are smarter than Gord Ash and Cito and can identify and try to fix.
  13. Olerud363.354
    1 triple. 0 homeruns in Vancouver in 25 games. 25 years old. 6'5" 260. Demoted from AA to A+ Minors are sad. Just a game of failure. People seemed excited about Williams a couple of years ago, big guy, hits ball far, but he's going backwards and not hitting ball far that I can see.
  14. Olerud363.354
    Blue Jays Playoff odds Blue Jays Message Board projection system (based on vibes) - 100% easy. Olerud363 projection system (done on napkin) - 20% 1 in 5 (by my count they are in a race with 10 teams for 2 wild card spots. I just go 2/10 and don't try to get too fancy projecting quality of team, I give White Sox a shot.) Fangraphs projection system (based on math and data analysis) - 37%
  15. Olerud363.354
    Doesn't hurt Sota, but probably hurts the runs scored just a tad. Plus Bichette 2, Sota 3 gives Bichette 18 more at bats a year. Imagine two players. One walks 100% of the time. The other homers 25% of the time exactly once a game. Neither do anything else. No one on the team does anything else ever (like a version of Blue Jays). If you hit homerun hitter second and walker 3rd the team scores 1 run a game. If you reserve them, 2 runs a game. Reality isn't that simple but I think the trend would hold. If you have an extreme on base guy, followed by a low on base guy extra base guy, on base guy should be in front.
  16. Olerud363.354
    That makes no sense. It should be the other way. In a good Sosa year Bichette could tie his Dad for 100 rbi season with -2 WAR. .220 .250 .290 12 homers 101 rbis
  17. Olerud363.354
    If that was it for Louise Varland great way to go out... only 25 pitches over 2 innings actually so less than he usually throws in 1 ... I wonder if not Rogers and Varland who is so half injured they needed Macko on stand by.
  18. Olerud363.354
    Hardest hit ball in quite a while. 108. Also very nice launch angle (for Vlad) -2 or something which is about 10 degrees higher than usual.
  19. Olerud363.354
    Never seen anything like this even in the worst of the Cito Gaston years. Jacob Brumfield is elite compared to Sosa.
  20. Olerud363.354
    What happened with Macko? Heard was here because they worked Varland and Rogers too much and one would have to be disabled? Did that happened? Or are they going to let Varland go 30 pitches again today and tomorrow in 2-1 and 4-2 losses then activate Macko?
  21. Olerud363.354
    He's injured after getting hit by pitch April 28 and every day will go 0 for 4 with max exit velocity decreasing every day, max launch angle decreasing and days needed to fully recover increasing 2 days for every day he refuses to go on the disable list. Now needs a month recovery and every day he plays add 2 days to that. Today - max exit velocity 85, max launch angle -8, time to recover 35 days. Tomorrow - max exit velocity 83, max launch angle -10, time to recover 37 days.
  22. Olerud363.354
    Josh Kasevich - If he is Ernie Clement with 35 walks instead of 9 that is super-helpful. Jo Jo Parker - If he walks 70 times strikes out 150 and is useful on basepaths, defense, a bit of pop that is super useful. Read that present iteration of Jays have like 4 players (Clement, Giminez, Heineman, Sosa) who haven't walked in months. Or whatever it was historically low. These new players coming in 2028 will hopefully at least help that.
  23. Olerud363.354
    Jo Jo Parker 1 for 3 with a couple of walks. .222 .374 .376 with 26 walks and 40 ks in 32 games. Not looking like an amazing pure hitter, that ship has already sailed (see Kevin McGonigle for what an good 19 year old pure hitter looks like, 46 to 28 bb/k as a 19 year old). Perhaps more of a Cavan Biggio type with an earlier start. Biggio put up similar numbers in Dunnedin, though Dunnedin was high a at the time and Biggio 22. A younger, slightly better Cavan Biggio not a bad thing. If Parker could do Biggio 19/20 for a 5 year run that would be helpful. Josh Kasevich: 3/4 and up to .289 .357 .388 basically his career averages. Trending to be the next Ernie Clement with more exit velocity?
  24. Olerud363.354
    What Blue Jays Message Board thinks will happen (1 in 8 chance this happens): Vladimir Guerrero Jr. a soft liner to right (88 mph) and that is down, Springer scores!!!! Jays win their 83rd and have clinched WC3. What a moment. Announcer: An amazing team. Springer hitting .200. Guerrero .260 with 9 homeruns, but somehow those two do it. Inspirational!!!! John Schneider will tell you these guys have been playing through things we don't know about (cough Guerrero small fracture in forearm, April 28th when hit by pitch, never healed) What will likely happen (7 in 8 chance this happens) Vladimir Guerrero Jr. with a soft fly ball to right, caught, and that is the 90th loss. Announcer: 90 losses after a World Series appearance just a year ago. And I will tell you there are things we don't know about and the team was never really healthy. Guerrero with a disappointing season for sure, but was never healthy if you ask John Schneider to tell you the truth. Long winter ahead and some tough decisions to be made.
  25. Olerud363.354
    1 in 8 chance of being the team that escapes from the 8 team trash pile to reach 84 wins for a weak WC3 is a lot different than 2 in 3 chance of being the team that gets to 89 wins in a three team race for 2 WC spots.
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