Olerud363.354

Laika closed the playoff thread. It will apparently remain closed unless Jays get 2 games back of playoff spot. This thread replaces it. This is not a joke. This thread should not be closed. It can be locked in the unlikely chance the Jays get 2 games back of a playoff spot and no longer tanking for the 18th pick. I think though if we win between 68 and 72 games we have an excellent chance for the 18th overall pick (8th overall + our 10 pick penalty). If we win more than 72, say 75 we probably get the 12th + 10 penalty picks = 22nd. Yes there is a lottery, but we all know Jays aren't moving up to a top 5 pick or anything in a lottery. So 18th to 22nd it is, and we root to get as low as possible so we have a better chance to get the next Tucker Toman or Chad Jenkins. Tank for the 18th pick. Every loss brings us closer. Not a joke, do not close unless the tanking fails and the Playoff thread is re-opened. All scoreboard watching switches to Angels, As, Tigers, Royals, Mariners, Nationals, Mets, Pirates, Giants and Rockies. By my count we are 11th = 21st pick. Need to drop a few more. We root for the jays to lose, those teams to win. 18th pick. So much better than the 22nd. Start tank standings watch now.

2044 - As I look across Lake America with my Grandson, I say to the boy, there used to be a team, a baseball team, they played there, brought many joy, but the joy ended summer 2026. The boy says 'but gramps, I never knew un-represented territories were allowed baseball teams?'. I laugh. Been listening to President Eric too much. But no reason the territory wouldn't be allowed a team, the economy is decent over there still, and the basketball and hockey teams still runs. I said, nothing to do with those politics grandson, just a man named Vladimir, who was suppose to be great and they gave half a billion to, just wasn't recoverable unfortunately. Now they play in Nashville of all places. Though I don't follow them there, just isn't the same. (not political, just a reflection of what is going to happen).

1995 Jays - John Olerud was the best hitter and really the best player and thought of as the worst and got sat for Jacob Brumfield and traded for Robert Pearson. After Gillick left there were no adults in the room and they thought negative WAR Joe Carter was the best player, and let Hentgen and Guzman throw 140 pitches a start. It was crazy. Absolute nut-case craziness. Vlad has ruined the franchise because of the contract, so the Toronto Blue Jays are over. They won't recover from that, but it was just God. God said lets ruin Vlad and cause them pain. But the 1994-2014 dark spot was caused by man, so recoverable. When God decides to end the only Canadian franchise nothing we can do.

I've no idea how to rebuild a swing but a couple of obvious things are some load management and strike-out more. Strike-out rate is 1/2 of Aaron Judge's and weirdly lowest of Vlad's career in his worst season. Swing less, swing hard, and fix the attack angle whatever that is, but the last one I just know because Laika said it. Needs load management. Play 5 times a week. 5/6 games or 5/7 if no off day. The fact that they haven't load managed him, even with obvious injuries is very weird and maybe fits the narrative no one is man enough to try and fix things.

July 10th 2027, no all star game because of strike but there is a draft. With the 18th pick the 69-93 (2026 record) Blue Jays choose Jay Joe the next Tucker Toman With the 1st overall pick the 78-84 (2026 record) Royals choose the next Ken Griffey Jr.

With the 18th pick of the 2027 draft, the 69-93 Blue Jays (6th last, 8th pick via lottery, 18th pick via penalty) choose Jay Joe. Jay Joe highly ranked high school talent will hit .195 6 with .290 slugging first year, but fans will he's only 18 and 11 months. Jay Joe highly school talent, 18th overall pick will hit .205 with a .330 slugging second year. By his fourth or fifth year Jay Joe will hit .290 in Vancouver for two months and people will say he is finally here, until he gets to New Hampshire and hits .190 again. I guess I am describing Tucker Toman. For all this tanking we are just going to get another Tucker Toman while the Royals will probably finish ahead of us but win the lottery and get the next Ken Griffey Jr. to go beside Bobby Witt JR.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Thought we'd get our own franchise player. Never really had one. Maybe Delgado, but not really normalized for the era he played in. Could have been Olerud but they mistreated him. Could have been Alomar but Gillick stole him and then he got a bad attitude and badness to him. Used to be Jays pain was limited by draft picks. If too bad they'd get the 1st overall and might a Ken Griffey Jr. or Bobby Witt that would bring joy to the fans, so had to win 70 in bad seasons, to prevent any long term joy. This constraint is gone. Jays can now win 34 games and get 15th draft pick because of the penalties, so it will happen. We will never really have a franchise player in the mold of Griffey or Brett. We will probably never have Joy again now that Vlad's contract has us in a free fall we'll never get out of. Never have joy again. Last joyrful moment the Bo homerun. Joy only lasted 120 minutes. Nothing positive will ever happen again for the team. Keys will be awesome. Kind of Pete Alonso, but it will be for another team, after they trade him for a pitcher that will get Tommy John after losing to the Rockies game 3, June 15th 2028 (after 1 year and 2.5 months of baseball wiped out).

Aaron Hill and Adam Lind put up some stinkers after their very awesome 2009 seasons. Both were probably worse in terms of WAR. But they weren't 80 hit tool former homerun champ, generational hitting talent signed to a 500 million dollar contract. Hill was weird. Basically .290 35 100, .200 25 70, .200 8 40, .300 25 90. Never been anything like this. Never been this kind of contract pain for anyone. Congratulations to Blue Jays fans. Worst contract ever. Franchise crippling.

It's a lottery but we all know the Jays aren't getting any lottery balls going their way. Pick will be between 18th and 22. I guarantee it. Every loss gives us more of a chance at closer to 18 then 22. With the 18th pick it will be a great chance to rebuild quick.

We lose 10 spots on the draft pick. So if we finish 12th last we get 22. However the way we are going I honestly think we can to 8th last and get the 18th draft pick. So do not be negative. We are getting the 18th draft pick. I bet we'll get it. And we can rebuild with pick number 18 and Vlad signed long term.

Argument against this is if you just give him 100 at bats more a year in the platoon years, it bumps his career counting numbers a bit but doesn't get to hall of fame counting stats. However there would be some second order effects from giving Olerud the Vlad 155 games a year age 20-40 opportunity. More confidence, more exposure to lefties early in career, so might hit them better later. Opportunity to work through down seasons in his 30s (as Springer was given).

John Olerud was my favourite player as a kid. Never had 50 homer power, or even 30, but lost his 22 homer power in 1995 hitting only 8. Still got 2.2 WAR and 2.5 WAR in 95 and 96 as a part time player, so-called failure, benched for Jacob Brumfield after winning a batting title. I'll never forgive this franchise for how they treated Olerud, and seeing how Vlad gets treated just bring back the bitterness. If John Olerud had been given the playing time and long term contract of Vlad he would have retired a career Blue Jay and as not just a hall of famer but a first ballot hall of famer. Like if they just did with Olerud, what they did with Vlad. Fully playing time from the beginning, full playing time through thick and thin.

A a 27 year old man that is what Vlad is. Jose Bautista with a weird swing, Yandy Diaz with a sub .400 slugging, Edwin. A 27 year old man in a weird place. Vlad and these guys were different at 19, different at 22, different at 25, but have to accept now they are the same at 27. A failure and wasted potential, but still time to turn it around with major changes. Question is I guess a) is he injured in a non-fixable way like Mattingly and Prince Fielder ? b) If no to a) and a major overhaul is needed, can it be done? Jose Bautista and Yandy Diaz didn't have 500 million in the bank so were hungry, on the other hand 500 million in the bank might be such an embarrassment that Vlad will be hungry.

I mentioned a couple of months ago that if Vlad could be Yandy Diaz I'd take it. I think anyone would now. I think you just need to, at age 27, start over, and put him with Edwin, Jose Bautista, Yandy Diaz, as a talented late bloomer, late 20s guy who hasn't figured it out, a project, a guy with a flawed swing that needs to be fixed. All three did and had very good runs in their 30-35 years. Weird, weird situation, but still salvageable. Just have to completely start over somehow.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Didn't do a rigorous search but Don Mattingly and Adrian Beltre are two guys this happened to in prime (26-31) time. Both put up a .250 .310 .350 or something season after monstrous seasons in their early to mid 20s. Mattingly never really came back but sort of became a .290 hitter with 10 homers. Beltre came back to have several .300 30 100 .900 OPS like seasons in his 30s. Had a great 30s. This has been mentioned before by other posters at least the Beltre comparison. Every once and a while it happens. Mike Lowell too. Not the same career length or hitting talent but good in his 20s, .230 with 8 homers at 31, back to MVP level at 33. Still think the Keys/Vlad/Springer/Okamota load management system is the way to go. 3 positions playing time evenly split 4 ways.

We don;t discredit Laika and the other smart guys. They might be on to something. At the same time we follow the games on sportsnet and see what happens. If Laika is right our playoff dreams will end, because Bieber isn't that good and won't be 7 innings 2 runs 0 walks 5 ks too much ... instead it would be implosions on the sportsnet, that will make us sad and angry.

It's more like if he finishes 8-2 3.90 ERA 3-0 in playoffs - 23 million here you go If he gives up 6 runs next outing and our playoff dreams end because the other 6 teams win that night... no 23 million for you (we are fickle). We don't use these fancy stats. We talk to the common people, check the box scores, check the time tested stuff like ERA, wins and playoffs. If Beiber does good in those categories we will give him anything he wants, If Bieber doesn't do good in those categories we will disown him and hope he ends up as a Chick-filet (Sundays off) chicken flipper.

I missed most of the game saw the 7-1, assume another day to rest the bullpen then got back to see the bullpen burnt in a demoralizing 1 run loss. A good loss day turned to a "might lead to a loss tomorrow" day. Seattle fan now. They lose the right way, probably now win 4 in a row, maybe lose 32-4 with position players going 7 innings, then 3 more wins.

I was telling my wife that this was genius. Perfect loss. Saved their bullpen, had some laughs. Jays loss today where they used 4 leverage relievers could lead to a loss tomorrow. Seattles genius 22-0 loss led to a win the next day. They deserve their 30% 'make the playoffs' odds. We deserve our 15% or whatever it is tomorrow. In fact I lower ours to half that 7.5% and increase mariners to 60%. Can't burn the bullpen day after day in one run loss. Win or lose 22-0. The mariner way. The right way.

The reason to compare them is the speed and ground ball rate (which is high for Batemen right now I think). Presumably their grounders are more choppy and they fly to first very fast, as opposed to Vladimir Guerrero Jr. whos grounders go very fast to someone as he goes medium slow to first. So we compare them because a batting average of .295 off of an expected .265 might be sustainable... or might not...

1. Is there any reason to believe he can't be Chandler on offense but a few more walks, a few more extra base hits ? 2. Is there any to believe Chandler. Who hits .295 when the statsscats says it should be .265 couldn't keep hitting .295? Batement is striking out a lot more than Chandler so far, which could be important, as there less opportunities to beat out grounders.

Actually Mariners might be 2.5 behind or something According to the critical advanced playoff probabilities I saw today mariners were 1st of the 7 WC3 contenders at 35% or so Jays last at 16 or so Weird. i guess the Mariners have awesome talent, an easy schedule, and could win the division. I bet this flips a bit ... hopefully we pass someone in the playoff probabilities race by the time the AIs and computers crank it out tomorrow....

why is seranthony or someone else not updating this? I had to check mlb app for the up to date scores. Tigers Orioles -- losers Guardians Rangers - leading like 8-0 or something Mariners - losing like 9-0 pr something. Twins - dunno -- too many to keep track Up do date wild card Toronto Texas the rest of AL except As/Royals/Angels 0.5 games behind As/Royals/Angens - 10 games behind ?

I saw an X some guy planned a big trip there to watch his beloved Kansas City Royals at Wrigley. Life time dream. He gets there takes a selfie in front of Wrigley all excited - then next tweet is "dang, they are playing in Kansas City, should of checked, what to do in Chicago?" No idea if this is true. A lot of X is just bots trying to create social disruption. Seems innocent and a funny story but a post like that, it gets me thinking how dumb this guy is, and how dumb everyone is, guys probably a liberal. Probably 5 times boosted. Probably the vax got him brain damaged so couldn't read the schedule ** ** not political just speculating on how this guy ended up at Wrigley for a Royals home game.

Jays fans are great but the variation in attendance is a little more than other similar market sizes. Like San Francisco and the Texas Rangers don't dip as much in a run of losing seasons as Jays would. I believe that is one thing Shapiro mentioned he wanted to fix.... get the attendance higher in down cycles by making it a destination... hopefully he doesn't get a chance to see if his fixes worked.