Olerud363.354

A season has ended in April. A sad thing and true pain, far worse then post season pain is the pain of meaningful summer baseball that will never be. At least people will learn to appreciate last year

What is his arm like? Seems like "unathletic" (compared to Ozzie Smith) guys like RIpken and Tulo can make up for it and still be elite if they have a great and accurate arm. So like there is some combination of Ozzie Smith like athleticism and arm strength with accuracy that has to be at a minimum. Unathletic with not a great arm he has no chance so yeah move him. However if athleticism + arm is at some minimum where it's feasible keep him there.

People shouldn't give me a hard time, a jobless middle aged loser, fancied myself a day trader, was far too clever and shorted the market time and again (most recently just a week ago), am hundreds of thousands in debt, and no hope for ever a moment of happiness, now wasting almost the entire day now watching Pluribus youtube videos (don't even post here much). If you disagree with the fangraphs statistical playoff odds model write them a letter. Dear Fangraphs I see you only give the Jays 33% chance of making playoffs while Yankees have 84% chance. How so only 2 weeks into season? The Yankees, they can't play defense, can't run the bases, and frankly aren't a good team, while the Jays are a hell of a bunch guys, who just had a 10 day stretch of bad injury luck. Make sure you take all that into account in your modelling. Respectfully yours Blue Jays Message Board.

I'm not sure what the point of the post was. It could be to illustrate that as bad as things have been it is unlikely they will continue to continue to trend that bad. Barger will come back and hit 30 homers. Okamata 30 too. Yesivage 11-3 140 innings pitched. Beiber 9-3 103 innings pitched. Hell even Ponce may show up October 15th. Perhaps. However according to fangraphs and Bayesian statistics you can already update your beliefs significantly based on new events. So more than likely if Ponce shows up October 15th the only place has to go is Dunnedin (I think about a 8% chance Jays are planning October 15th now, down from probably 25% opening day). Less than 10% chance they win the division.

2013 - Josh Johnson career over, Brett Lawrey complete bust, Melky Cabrera can't hit without roids, Brandon Morrow no!. RA Dickey not a Cy Young just an old slopper like the other knuckleballers. Emilio Bonficacio? Maicer Izturus? What were they thinking. 2017 - Bautista done (same age Springer is now), Tulo done (30 more games played left in life), Sanchez done (no more health), Ryan Goins... what were they thinking. 2013, 2017, 2009, 2018, 2004, 1997. Such is life. Disaster, disappointment, total disaster, no hope, no chance, not even a bit... just as common as the good, more common for most. The lucky few experience little pain, but for most pain is the norm.

Depends how it is true. If he hits .220 with 19 homers and Vlad hit .270 with 17 homers that is bad. If he hits .250 with 32 homers and Vlad hit .320 with 31 homers that is fine. 2019/2020 Eloy was capable of leading a good team in homers, so if he returns to that awesome, if he is awful but everyone is too, not awesome.

There used to be the Michael Kay show. It was fun to watch when the Yankees went 14-12 in a month and the Red Sox or someone got within 3 games. There was no Michael show last year, but Michael Kay was still fun with the 'don't hang on the rim in July' thing.... and finally had to admit the Jays were good in October.

Good news is the other teams suck so Jays are 'projected' to sneak into playoffs with their 83 wins and could even host the Astros or Rangers in the Wild Card series. That's projections so it probably won't work out like that. Like 6 teams are projected to be 82-84 wins. However in reality one or two of the 6 will got hot and win 88 so 83 won't be enough to host the wild card. Maybe Jays be the one who wins 88? Barger probably two torn meniscus but no doubt Eloy Jiminez can replace Barger if healthy (and so far healthy in Buffalo but probably will tear his two meniscus when he gets up game 2 at bat 3). One of Bieber, Yesivage, Berrios returns? Maybe... maybe... or maybe they all need Tommy John. Problem is if the season is cursed everything will go wrong. Like if their is redundancy in a normal season the redundancy plays. 3/3 things don't wrong in normal season... but in a cursed season, which this very likely is, everything goes wrong. Even there's only a 1% chance of 10 wrong things happening, they will go wrong in the cursed season.

It's an 83 win team according to fangraphs. Yankees 91. I think both were 88 to begin the season. Jays are only 3 games back of Yankees so how is the projection costing them 8?? I think they were supposed to be a couple games ahead right now given easy schedule + the injuries. So they literally lost 8 projected games to the Yankees in 5 days.

His numbers are close to what they were projected for .250 hitter with 20 homers... the strike-outs are really concerning though. Like he struck out 60% of the time. Hopefully turns it around.

Feels hopeless. 50 wins for the 50th season? Or will they be in the 40s. Fun week ahead for the Dodgers. Good opportunity to get Kyle Tucker going and the pitchers pad their numbers with some shut outs.

Jays division odds have gone from 30% or something to 15%. While Yankees from 30% to 60% in 5 days. The reactions are fully justified given the last 5 days. It's been an awful 5 days and likely changed the shape of the season. At least according to the playoff odds math. I know last year we came back from a situation like this ... but we didn't in 1998, or 1999, or 2003, or 2006, or 2007, or 2008, or 2013, or 2017, or 2018, or 2021, 2022, or 2023, or 2024. In 2022 and 2023 we got the wild card, but those years the division was lost very early, which has quite likely just happened again with a slow start and injuries. Fans that seem irrational are really not. Humans are good at probability even if not good at math. The seemingly over-the-top reactions always correlate with the playoff odds and injuries.

Last year you could say the same. Barger, Clement, Schneider, Lukes came through. Still have similar at Buffalo. Jiminez, Kasevitch, Mcadoo, Schrek a few others. Not saying any them are anything, but no one new Clement or Barger, maybe that just got lucky that second tier prospects/journey men worked out last year, and you can't count on it again.

Yesavage probably gets rocked (haven't looked yet) and needs two Tommy Johns. Patrick Corbin healthy, very healthy, 5.77 ERA though. Life is short. Life is brutal. Life is disappointing, the sun does shine occasionally, but when the clouds come back it makes it all the worse. The NY Mets and the Toronto Blue Jays are the same. I was talking to my friend about this the other night. Very similar. Can have awesome years. Have big payrolls. Are in big cities. Have awesome TV contracts and awesome fans. They both go into most years looking golden with so much excitement. They have their moments but then they can win 71 with a horrible effort out of nowhere. Maybe that is every team, but it doesn't happen to the Dodgers or Yankees it seems. The small market teams are what they are. Jays and Mets though. Teach kids not to have hope. Enjoy the good when it comes, but never have hope.

Dodger 18 Jays 0 Dodgers 7 Blue Jays 6 (blow lead heartbreaking things in extra innings, random craziness just to make people feel sick) Dodgers 14 Jays 1 Jays 4-8 Sadness high. Hope never. Rebuild Starts though and hopefully Jo Jo Parkeris not Kevin Ahrens.

Only 7 games but he has a 60% ground ball rate and isn't hitting the ball as hard as usual. ha ha. It is what is always has been. Hopefully he hits one hard in the air eventually. As an outsider I don't understand it and never will. 1. Historic minor league stats, best ever in Blue Jays history .400 average in double a as a teenager. 2. Historically high hard hit rate and more hard it balls in play than any other player this decade. 3. Two historic performances in homerun derby showing generational power tool. 4. Given 80 hit grade tool by scouts maybe only one ever. 5. 18 playoff games against best teams and pitching in the game hitting .350 .500 .700 or something. 6. 4 month stretches hitting .340 .440 .650 in 2021 and 2024. 7. By all metrics 99.99th percentile raw hitting tools on par with Frank Thomas and Albert Pujols. 8. Randomly hits .250 with a 55% ground ball rate weeks at a time preventing generational multi year numbers.

100%. Haven't read the entire thread so not sure if anyone suggested that. Fascinating last year to see the different perspectives on game 7. It was painful but not the most painful thing I've experienced as a Jays fan. By far April 2013 was. The most promising season in a generation gone after a month (injuries and bad start). I remember going to Canada's wonderland that summer and the vibe was so sad. No competitive Jays, CN tower in the distance so lonely. I feel like early in the season there is a different kind of stress. Like all of a sudden Yankees are 20-5, the Jays 10-12 with a bunch of injuries kind of thing. Less devastating with all the wild cards now, but a competitive season over quick can happen... painful when it does. Talking to my Mets friend the other day, and we agreed Mets and Jays are similar. Can't complain (not the Pirates) and so many happy moments but so much and failure too. Not the Yankees or Dodgers who are pretty much pain free for fans 35 or younger. A 35 year old Dodgers/Yankee fan has never seen a season spiral out of control to 70 wins. We fear this. Because we know it can happen.

I find the rage venting correlates pretty heavily to the in-game win probability chart and also the season long playoff probability odds. And injuries too. Like losing 2/3 to the tigers no injuries, is a lot different than losing 2/3 to Rockies and Ponce maybe gone for season, Little really messed up, bullpen over-worked, and Okamota showing warts (crazy k-rate). I'm not saying the sky is falling, but it's like in season there's these shifts. Like last year Jays division probability went from I think 95% to 50% in 6 days. That's insane. Like the fans don't rage for small shifts in probability, or losing an average game. It's huge probability shifts, big blow leads, injuries, And losing to the Rockies.

No doubt in my mind that Rockies were embarrassed by Jays last year, so prepared and focused on this series quite a bit. Paul DePodesta is a data guy. I think a few laughed at hiring him... can't remember why. Maybe he screwed up another team. I assume if nothing else he'll just catch them up to average game prep for a modern MLB franchise and they'll win at least 60 this year and won't lose 15-1 as much.

Paul Depodesta is a complete genius, and they've been game planning this series for months. I believe Freeland was the guy pitching the 20-1 game in Denver. I believe they have put everything humanly possible into this game. Every pitch by Freeland will have perfect location and his series of pitches will have sequencing that has been planned for 7 months. Every batter has gone into the simulation thing to learn Gaussman for 7 months. They will know what is coming from the slightest tell. They are out for revenge for the 20-1 game (or whatever it was) and by god, I do think they will get it. The only positive is that our run-differential will go to like -20, and the Yankees will lose too today 2-1. And will be leading us like by 30 runs in run-differential but tied in standing, and Michael Kay will lose his mind completely.

Yeah. Vlad played in Blue Field. Bo in the GCL (Gulf Coast League). Travis Snider played in Pulaski, but that (2006) looks like it was the last year. Before contraction they had basically three short seasons. NY Penn for example. Appalachian League, and Gulf Coast League. So the players that just got drafted could get really spread out.

Stroman tore his March 10th and was back in 6 months. Probably an outlier and unlikely Ponce can do the same. Sucks.

I mean nothing is black and white. It is nice if they destroy the FCL. If they don't not the end of the world, but if after 100 at bats they are .175 with a 30 to 3 strikeout to walk ratio 2 doubles and a homer.... that is not good, even if only a month of data and they are only 18.

But the league Aaron Judge was sent to was still kind of appropriate. Before contraction there was like a really pathetic morning league in Dunnedin, and Jays had Pulaski, and they had the old Vancouver (which was short season). The first 2 were extremely low level, so a good 18 year old high ranked prospect should have destroyed them. And wait. Jays still have the pathetic morning league where they play at 10:00 am or something. It is called Florida Complex League. An 18 year old high ranked prospect should wreck that. Or at least hold their own. Like that Bonilla guy when he showed up and was hitting .180 you kiind of knew.... So now it is Sanchez who is the next hope, along with Parker? Sanchez did better in the Dominican League than Bonilla, now he and Parker have to destroy that 10:00 league and move up to the other Dunnedin which is still low, but that one you don't expect him to destroy (it would be nice. They __HAVE__ to destroy the 10:00 league).

Right, but when Judge went to Buff-Fudge no where for a few weeks at the beginning of his pro career (Charleston, which at the time wasn't totally butt-fudge no where but full season A) he hit .328 .428 .530. Bobby Witt. Yeah totally. Did not dominate the short season rookie he was sent to. That didn't indicate a ceiling. Witt is interesting kind of got better year to year. Not good in rookie went from wRC+ of 95 in the majors to 170 within 3 years. Bo showed up rookie ball hitting .400, destroyed the low minors. 140 wRC+ in 40 games at 21. Sort of a steady 125 wRC+ after that. As for Jo Jo Parker what would be nice is if he hits the ground running, has stupid numbers in low a, and does 2 levels this year, like a lot of the really good prospects do.