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Everything posted by Brownie19
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General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2025)
Brownie19 replied to Ryu In My House's topic in Toronto Blue Jays Talk
Jonn - glad to hear you meant it in a positive way. I don't know what Internet lingo you're referring to, but in English: Meaning of shambles in English a state of confusion, bad organization, or untidiness, or something that is in this state: After the party, the house was a total/complete shambles. Our economy is in a shambles. The way these files are arranged is the biggest shambles I've ever seen. sham·bles noun plural noun: shambles 1. informal a state of total disorder. "my career was in a shambles" I think you could have used a better word. But - I too think it would be incredible to see Roden breakout. This org needs it. -
Fan Petition to replace Atkins and Shapiro
Brownie19 replied to Delete_My_Account_Thanks's topic in Toronto Blue Jays Talk
God you're unstable. Get help. -
Fan Petition to replace Atkins and Shapiro
Brownie19 replied to Delete_My_Account_Thanks's topic in Toronto Blue Jays Talk
Imagine winning 89+ games in 4 of 5 years and still having fans waste time creating and circulating petitions to fire them because they haven't won playoff games/series where the favoured team wins 55% of the time (almost a coin flip). Probably a slim chance we win 89+ this year, but who knows. Very high probably Atkins is gone after this year. Then we'll get to watch the same people who hate Aktins complain about the new GM. It will be swell. -
Fan Petition to replace Atkins and Shapiro
Brownie19 replied to Delete_My_Account_Thanks's topic in Toronto Blue Jays Talk
That was my point. People who write, circulate, sign and push petitions like this are really naive and not smart. Case in point. -
Fan Petition to replace Atkins and Shapiro
Brownie19 replied to Delete_My_Account_Thanks's topic in Toronto Blue Jays Talk
Has a team ever done anything with a petition like this? -
GDT: Spring Training Games, Week of 2/23 - 3/1
Brownie19 replied to Pendleton's topic in Game Thread Archive
There are just so many things that irk me about Vlad - this being one of them. I respect his ability to hit, but I essentially loath everything else about him. -
General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2025)
Brownie19 replied to Ryu In My House's topic in Toronto Blue Jays Talk
Thanks for letting me know. As I was adjusting the font size, I noticed a button to "remove format" and clicked it. Glad to hear that fixes the issue. -
General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2025)
Brownie19 replied to Ryu In My House's topic in Toronto Blue Jays Talk
Nice little breakdown from rotoworld on Gausman's new cutter. Sorry if this doesn't work for those in dark mode, here's the link to the full article - https://www.nbcsports.com/fantasy/baseball/news/2025-mlb-spring-training-notebook-kevin-gausman-griffin-canning-show-new-pitches. I was really down on Kevin Gausman coming into the off-season. I had him ranked inside the top 10 overall starters last year despite acknowledging that he was essentially a one-pitch pitcher with an elite splitter and a mediocre fastball. That was why he always gave up a lot of hard contact and had high WHIPs. While there were some years in San Francisco where he seemed to get his walk rate in check and posted strong WHIPs, he’s been about a 1.22 WHIP pitcher in his three seasons in Toronto and that can actually hurt your team when you’re getting 180+ innings of that high of a WHIP from your supposed ace. On top of that, Gausman had allowed at least a 42% Ideal Contact Rate (ICR) in each of 2022 and 2023, and I should have paid more attention to that. I like using ICR instead of barrel rate because ICR includes hard groundballs while barrel rate ignores them because of their low launch angle. Still, hard groundballs often turn into hits, and hits turn into baserunners, so we don’t like pitchers who give up hard contact, whether it’s in the air or on the ground. Gausman’s splitter regressed a bit in 2024, and we have to remember that we only have three years of elite production from Gausman after he reinvented himself in San Francisco. It’s not like he’s been a stud for 10 years and just lost it for one season last year. Pitchers who rely on the splitter as their primary pitch are always a risk, so I came into the off-season ready to plummet Gausman down my rankings, and I did at first. However, I’m more in on Gausman than I was a month ago because of the continued talk that he will use a new cutter or sinker more in 2025. That could be a game-changer for Gausman. He introduced the sinker at the end of April last season and seemed to get more confident in it as the year went on. He threw the pitch primarily to righties, using it just under 10% of the time, but he struggled with command of it. It posted just a 30% zone rate (well below the 53% league average) and had a 57% strike rate (well below the 67.4% league average). The sinker also didn’t miss bats but, importantly, it did allow just a 30% ICR, and that’s what we want here. Gausman used the sinker against righties to give them a look at another fastball besides the four-seamer. That should theoretically allow the four-seamer to play up more as a swing-and-miss pitch but also be squared up less than it was previously. The only issue here is that, since Gausman couldn’t command the sinker, hitters didn’t worry about it much. His four-seamer did miss more bats in 2024 than it did in 2023, but it also got hit harder. Some of that also could have been that he also used the sinker low in the zone to righties, so when they saw a low fastball, they knew it was a sinker, and a high fastball was a four-seamer. Still, even though the pitch didn’t work great for him in 2024, I think the idea behind incorporating it was spot-on, and a better command of the pitch could make a real impact in 2025. We also know that Gausman intends to use a cutter in 2025, which is a pitch he’s never thrown before. The cutter should operate as a second fastball variation to left-handed hitters in the same way the sinker is to righties. In 2024, Gausman got below-average swinging strikes on his four-seamer to lefties but didn’t allow a lot of hard contact. However, his splitter was far less impactful against lefties in 2024. That has a lot to do with Gausman’s command of the pitch itself, but he also only used the four-seam inside the lefties 20% of the time, so lefties were able to look away and could have picked up the splitter more easily. Using a cutter to jam lefties up and in will open up the outside part of the plate for him to get more swings and misses with the splitter. At 34 years old, I think the days of Gausman as a top-10 starter are done, and the majority of his bounceback is going to have to come from getting more strikes and chases with his splitter. However, I think these added fastball variations could help with that. Each one can be used up and inside to hitters, which will back them up off the plate and make it harder for hitters to time up the splitter low and away. Also, even if the sinker and cutter are just average, it will mean that hitters won’t be able to sit on his four-seam fastball as much as they have been in the past, which should lead to less hard contact and potentially better WHIPs. That could allow us to get a 3.50 ERA season out of Gausman, with his strikeout rate climbing back up around 26% or higher. -
I can't imagine anyone is giving him a starting role - unless they are hit by the injury bug in spring training. He might be holding out to see if that happens. But I agree, there are probably better situations for him around baseball - teams with more clear paths to playing time.
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- yasmani grandal
- christian bethancourt
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I'm all for adding Grandal. Great to see Kirk pounding the ball so far in the spring. It would be such a pleasant surprise if he could return to a 115+ wRC+ hitter and would re-establish himself as one of the best young catchers in baseball. That .270/.350/.410 slash line steamers projects would be such a boost to this lineup.
- 21 replies
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- yasmani grandal
- christian bethancourt
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GDT: Spring Training Games, Week of 2/23 - 3/1
Brownie19 replied to Pendleton's topic in Game Thread Archive
Rob Friedman (@pitchingninja) • Instagram reel WWW.INSTAGRAM.COM 7,849 likes, 58 comments - pitchingninja on February 25, 2025: "When good “framing” comes back to bite you. 🤣... Maybe the pitchers should let the catchers do the challenges? -
General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2025)
Brownie19 replied to Ryu In My House's topic in Toronto Blue Jays Talk
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/what-would-a-vladito-contract-look-like/ Article on what Vlad's worth. If he repeats 2024, they think he's probably worth $400M over 9 years. -
GDT: Spring Training Games, Week of 2/23 - 3/1
Brownie19 replied to Pendleton's topic in Game Thread Archive
It would be great to see a little more pitching depth in AAA, given how many of our prospects have arrived at AAA and completely sh*t the bed. I wonder how optimistic the org is that some of our guys in AAA can rebound and/or contribute. -
Completely agree - although the only thing we don't know is if that was with, or without deferred money. If it was somehow the equivalent of $450M after deferrals, then that's much closer to a realistic ask. That said - I suspect they're talking $585M without deferrals - and that's a ludicrous number. In the end, Vlad has really no reason to come down from some astronomical number right now. He can ask for the moon and if the Jays say no, he can just go test free agency.
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General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2025)
Brownie19 replied to Ryu In My House's topic in Toronto Blue Jays Talk
Wagner likely won't start v. LHP, so you can always rotate some guys though then (Santander, Vlad, Bo, Springer, etc.). The Jays will probably need a couple of the young kids to step up and earn roles in the starting lineup. Orelvis and Wagner are probably our 2 best bets. -
GDT: Spring Training Games, Week of 2/23 - 3/1
Brownie19 replied to Pendleton's topic in Game Thread Archive
Talkin’ Baseball (@talkinbaseball_) • Instagram reel WWW.INSTAGRAM.COM 35K likes, 80 comments - talkinbaseball_ on February 22, 2025: "There are better ways to spend your birthday lol (via... Not sure if anyone saw or posted this today. Bassitt was the ball boy for losing their fantasy league. He went 4-10 (football I'd assume?) and had to wear a custom jersey accordingly. -
GDT: Spring Training Games, Week of 2/23 - 3/1
Brownie19 replied to Pendleton's topic in Game Thread Archive
This is dumb gruber - even for you. -
Yes. I support this. Although I am surprised Turner got $6M. I suspect JDM may still cost $8M. I'd still love to see if he's got 1 more good season in him. We have fallback options if he doesn't.
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Lots of solid talent still available. Those who signed early did well to get what they did. The market has collapsed. It's too bad we weren't able to unload Bassitt earlier, he could have been replaced for 1/4 of what he's making.
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General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2025)
Brownie19 replied to Ryu In My House's topic in Toronto Blue Jays Talk
That's not how the ignore list works. If you ignore them, you just can't see what they post... -
General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2025)
Brownie19 replied to Ryu In My House's topic in Toronto Blue Jays Talk
Analytical nerds run baseball and have for years now. The best teams have the best nerds. I completely support the notion that the "plan" was to let Berrios work through the lineup a certain number of times before going to the pen. I have to assume a manager has the ability to modify the plan as required, based on results/feel/etc. Obviously if the starter shits the bed, he comes out early. If he's dominating, they can let him go further. I suspect every single playoff game that's played uses a similar strategy. The challenging point is determining if he's actually dominating, or if he's just performing "normally" and/or getting lucky and whether or not you could deviate from the plan. Schneider decided not to deviate from the plan. We gave up just 2 runs that game, so it's hard to firmly support a notion that it was the "wrong" call - but I understand why fans were upset. -
General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2025)
Brownie19 replied to Ryu In My House's topic in Toronto Blue Jays Talk
Thanks for posting. I liked this quote: Although the 34-year-old said there were “a lot of teams calling for me” once he hit the open market, “the Blue Jays were my first priority. I had a good feeling I will be back here when I got traded. I like it here. I had a good meeting when I left with Ross (Atkins). I like how they treat people, your family and the players. It's a little bit different than other teams.”

