Brownie19

While I agree that we need to give him more PA's to see what he really is - I do expect there's a high probability that we find out he can't be an everyday regular and is much more effective playing 4-5 times a week in favorable matchups.

That's insane. It's kind of nonsense. I don't love it.

Shocking.

Is Biggio going to get called for having pine tar too high up on his bat???

Go figure - Varsho and KK go 4-8 with a double and a HR...That's baseball for you.

Vladdy curse!

If Managers were good with going with their gut and eyes - then nobody would have developed predictive models. The reality is Managers are often terrible at this and it can be very difficult to pull this off correctly. Here's an example. DS is off to a hot start and the Jays consider whether he should become a starter. The predictive model still suggests the Varsho and KK give them the best chance to win, but they decide to override the model and start DS regardless of the matchup. DS goes 0-12 in 3 straight starts, but that's a really small sample size, so do you continue to override the model and start DS? or do you go back to Varsho/KK? Hot and cold streaks come and go without any indication or warning. Do you keep going with your gut over the non-bias, statistical data? I fully expect the Jays predictive model suggests that starting DS in certainly matchups will yield the best results. And one could argue the model is working beautifully, as they are getting good production out of DS to date! You can suggest "most fans" don't agree with their predictive models - but what on earth is that based on? You don't even know what the models are based on or how accurate they've been. You're basing this on your eye test and the results? I mean my eye test showed me people were arguing Clement should start over IKF in the 2nd game vs. Seattle....yet IKF went 3-4. In fact, if left to the fans, Clement would have be starting over IKF almost every single day...yet here we are with IKF rocking a 131 wRC+ and Clement at 88. Fans were wrong all the time. Gut feelings are wrong all the time - hence why we use so much advanced statistics now.

Do you really think this plays a big factor? I don't. I suspect their predictive models suggest this lineup still gives them the best chance to win, over one with DS in it. I'd love to know the truth!

Yeah - I get it. I would have liked to see something that gave the Cubs a bit more advantage if Bellinger was a 5 WAR stud this year (beyond just getting a 5 WAR stud for 1 year $27.5M)

Are you suggesting this because if he goes back to sucking balls, he won't opt out and thus will get $80M over 3 years? If he's good this year, it's a 1 year, $27.5M deal. If he's really good this year, nothing wrong with paying him $27.5M and maybe you have a leg up in re-signing him. If he's 2.5 WAR player this year and doesn't opt out and give you another 5 WAR over the last 2 years of the deal, that's not a crippling deal (7.5 WAR for $80M/3 years) If he's a 1-1.5 WAR player this year and moving forward, then yes, it's a really s***** deal.

I'm not so sure I agree with that. $150M to $200M? Absolutely.

Perhaps it just means we're due for a little luck

I can't watch today, but conditions must be challenging. Very few people are under par so far!

This is fair, but it's still very difficult as a fan to not get excited about a guy who's been labelled as one of the best LH starting pitching prospects in baseball. Everyone wants that home grown ace. Unfortunately, I think the probability of that happening is like 5% now.

Agreed - not sure Bo and Vlad would be as willing as most of the players who've been extended by AA in Atlanta. For most of those players, their families were relying on them to provide and they couldn't afford to take the risk.

I think that's fair. That type of philosophy was all the rage back in the mid 2010's. It is interesting that you rarely hear that anymore. We always debated if the Nats should have shutdown Strasburg or not, with lots saying they shouldn't have, you have to go for it, etc. Well that could be exactly what we did with Manoah and we are now paying the price for that approach. Of course Strasburg broke down anyway, so maybe Manoah would have too - or maybe he wouldn't have!

This is certainly the old school way of looking at it. I don't follow it closely enough, but I doubt you see many successful organizations running their top arms out there for 100+ pitches in AA/AAA.

You may be lucky there is no downvote button on this message board...

It's almost like the playoffs are a crapshoot eh? Interesting.

100% - if Baltimore is willing to spend a bit now, everyone in the AL might be f***ed.

I think this is correct - possibly with a Mayza IL stint.

I wonder why they are babying him so much. I really hope it's not because they think he's going to break.

Who's being sent down? Or is someone going to the IL?

Just more people with the emotional intelligence of a tampon.

Have no fear. I did my best Jays24 impression for a few days there. I felt the board was missing it in your absence.