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Brownie19

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Everything posted by Brownie19

  1. Brownie19
    Tigers have a good farm system and some exciting players on the current roster and on their way. One potential issue has been their ability to develop. They've had two #1 overall picks bust and several others who never panned out (Faedo, Lange, Cameron, etc.). Greene is great, Skubel is great, Carpenter looks good, Olson looks good. The rest is TBD in my opinion. Time will tell if this next wave of prospects reach their potential or not.
  2. Brownie19
    I think right now we have the 5th best odds of landing the #1 pick (Ethan Holliday) - a 10% chance. He's supposed to be better than Jackson. I'm not suggesting I want to see them lose to increase their odds, but that is a tantalizing prospect who may have the ability to change the direction of an organization.
  3. Brownie19
    Pete Walker - the drunk pitching ninja!
  4. Brownie19
    I suspect they are playing him in favourable matchups. Anderson is a tough left on left matchup. Remember when people complained when they took Davis out of the lineup early in the year? Remember what happened when they stopped, and played him everyday? He sucked. Wagner isn't the next coming of Barry Bonds. We'll be lucky if he's still a major league player 3 years from now. That said, Wagner has been a ray of sunshine lately. I want to see him play too...but he will a lot over the rest of the season. Just not v. tough lefties I suspect.
  5. Brownie19
    Perhaps. Most quality benches are constructed of: 1. backup catcher; 2. someone who can play SS; 3. someone who can play CF (ideally all 3 OF positions); and 4. someone who can do some damage offensively. Now not everyone carries a 4th OFer who can play CF or is strong defensively in the OF, so maybe he can fill the 4th OF role on a team - but he's really not ideal in that role. In terms of #4, the guy who can do some damage often has strong platoon splits so you can start him in favorable matchups. I like Davis. I hope he improves and carves out a long career at the ML level. I just think he's facing an uphill battle.
  6. Brownie19
    I applaud the Jays for giving DS an extended look as a full-time player this year, but the reality is the probability of him becoming a ML starter were never high. I think most of the advanced metrics predicted he was a flawed player who probably couldn't hack it. It explains why the Jays used him in specific matchups to start this year and didn't trust him in the playoffs (after his 0-35 streak). Fans love to bitch about those predictive systems, but this is probably a good example of the system working. He's probably going to have to be a lefty MASHER - ala Steve Pearce, if he's going to stick at the ML level (which is something he certainly hasn't been). He simply doesn't do anything else well enough to warrant a roster spot. To be honest, most of these Buffalo kids are going to fail. We'll probably be lucky if 1 of them becomes a ML starter for the Jays over the next 3-5 years and 1 of them becomes a quality backup player.
  7. Brownie19
    Without an elite pitching coach like Pete Walker, Stripling was destine to fail. The Jays sucked every ounce of value from Ross in 2022.
  8. Brownie19
    100% I think the probability of him ever becoming a reliable starter (let's say that's 150 IP, xFIP of 4.20) for more than 1 year is probably 5%. Any promise I have for him is to become a shutdown RPer.
  9. Brownie19
    I'd sell high while you can. No bat speed, no exit velo, no barrels. It doesn't seem overly sustainable.
  10. Brownie19
    Yeah - it's been pretty remarkable. Carroll - balls Saurez - balls LGJ - balls Moreno - just OK Perdomo - just OK Walker - typical season Pederson - GREAT Marte - GREAT McCarthy - GREAT I haven't looked, but I'd guess they're great with RISP. Edit - yes, they are .283 AVG and 125 OPS+, which are both 2nd in the league. It's unlikely this is sustainable season over season, but for now, they are on a massive heater. Of interest, the Jays are 10th overall in AVG with RISP this year.
  11. Brownie19
    Forget Vlad - extend Wagner!
  12. Brownie19
    Thank you - this is what I was trying to articulate. I actually think that's the correct play (whether a lame duck GM will take this approach or not). You could certainly sell the fans on several of those FA signings. If lots of those guys rebound, you may have a playoff team. If they don't, you're not tied to many long term deals. If some of them do, but you're not making the playoffs anyway, you can sell them all as rentals and stock the farm system. Do that, while keeping enough space on the roster to see what you have in the Buffalo crew...
  13. Brownie19
    Couple of thoughts: 1. Ideally, they'd resolve the Atkins/Shapiro situation. The idea of them making decisions based on being in a lame duck situation isn't good. Will the Jays allow them to sacrifice the future, just for some hail mary attempt to get into the playoffs and save their jobs? They shouldn't. 2. I simply don't think we have enough money available to fill all the holes needed to compete in 2025 - unless we're blowing well past the luxury tax thresholds and I highly doubt that happens. Filling even a couple of the holes in the offense (say 3rd and LF) still leaves needs at catcher, starting pitching and the bullpen. I mean if we "hit" on every signing and some of the young players surprise - then there's a chance we make the playoffs - but the probability of that happening is low. Our farm system isn't good enough to land much in trades either.
  14. Brownie19
    I agree with all of this, which is why I don't think we'll actually compete in 2025. I can see them adding some strategical pieces that may help them give the illusion of competing (fans aren't hard to fool), but we probably need to let the young players play and figure out what we have in 2025. Pouring more money into this team is unlikely to produce the wanted results, nor is it a sustainable approach IMO.
  15. Brownie19
    Sale deserves a lot of credit. He's nearly having a career year at age 35 and is approaching the total number of innings he threw between 2020 and 2023 this year. Hopefully the Braves figure it out and can go on a run to end this season. He is definitely not a pitcher many thought would age very well. He may cash in one final time this offseason.
  16. Brownie19
    That's how someone who finishes the year with 23 homers, 31 doubles, 3 triples and a .191 ISO ends up with a wRC+ of 88 last year.
  17. Brownie19
    Good point about Leo. Have to imagine he's on our bench next year unless Bo or Leo are traded.
  18. Brownie19
    Wagner's last season in the big leagues: 37 saves, 13.5 K/9, 1.43 ERA, 2.0 WAR, Age 38
  19. Brownie19
    To be honest - I'm good with all of this. I don't think we're actually going to compete next year (although I think the team will provide that illusion, with some small % chance of everything going our way). I'm excited to see what these younger players can become. Let's see what we've got.
  20. Brownie19
    I missed most of the game last night. Was Billy in the house to see his kids ML debut? Billy was always one of my favourites growing up - I still remember when he first came to the majors. It's one of the first baseball memories I have of reading and learning about a young prospect. This short lefty flamethrower who was just blowing everyone away. Reading and learning about young prospects became a passion/hobby of mine for the past 30 years. It's surreal to see his son in the majors now - playing for my favourite team.
  21. Brownie19
    Interesting. He's been really good since arriving in Seattle. They obviously think there's a good chance the tweaks he's made will stick. It will be interesting to see how this plays out.
  22. Brownie19
    It is alarming how stupid most fans are. This board is still incredible for real baseball talk - even if there are a few challenging members.
  23. Brownie19
    IKF has a career wRC+ of 85, McMahon's is 90. This lineup needs to score more runs period (which is what wRC+ calculates) - whether that's with more suicide squeezes or more home runs. IKF and McMahon are both good at defense. McMahon can't turn 2026 into a player option (didn't finish Top 5 in MVP voting in 2022 or 2023) and can only turn 2027 into a player option if he finishes top 5 in MVP voting next year...which won't happen, so he isn't opting out. Allocating $35M over 3 years to a defense first (only?) 3rd baseman isn't good use of resources IMO. I thought you were just throwing out names of 3rd basemen who could be available...you weren't making suggestion on who you thought would be a good fit. Now you are, and are prepared to tout McMahon as a solid trade candidate? Best of luck with that.
  24. Brownie19
    I have to imagine this is the plan...
  25. Brownie19
    I agree with Jonn. Los Santos was given a few token games by the Blue Jays. He got a couple of hits and can say he fulfilled his childhood dreams. It was a nice gesture from the Blue Jays, but now it's time to see what some of the real prospects are able to do.
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